Alaskan Grizzly

You’re confusing two points. One about players selected #1 and having won a Heisman and won (and played in) a Super Bowl. That was two. The other conversation highlighted that ‘in the last 26 Super Bowls’ 4 QBs selected overall have won it. 2 of them twice (the Mannings) so six SBs. Nope. Again you’re not comprehending the read. Simply put of the 26 Super Bowls played from 1999-2024, 6 games were won by QBs who were chosen #1 overall. The rest were not. But of those 20 games some were repeats, like Brady (6), Roethlisberger (2) and Mahomes (3). Still none of them were selected #1 overall .

We don’t have goats here in Alaska. Least not those type.

Surely you’ve heard the famous quote: “There are three types of lies. Lies, damn lies and statistics.” Essentially statistics taken in their raw form provide raw data. How you perceive or use them can be twisted however you see fit and help illustrate a narrative. To suggest stats in their raw form are “confusing” would be wrong. But to use the stats in your own analytics is where things can get tricky. Quick question. Do you think Carolina choosing Bryce Young was a “good bet”? How about if you weigh it against them passing on Stroud and seeing how well he did? Same question about former #1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence? He himself three years in and led the league in INTs (his rookie year) and fumbles lost the last two. Does the scale tip to him being a “good bet” if you look at the recent addition of Mac Jones to the team? Who by the way has very similar stats overall, especially passing.

So what…you’re Spock now? Illogical and irrefutable are not the same you know. 😉👍

Excellent work. I couldn’t have said it any better. (Seriously…I couldn’t). ~ signed Antagonistical Goat’s Ass analytics.

Are you telling me Skip won this round of stubbornness? I was hoping you’d be willing to explain…but ok. I’ll stop. 🫡

You’re using Vegas odds to project QB success? Not necessarily being a betting man what did Vegas say about Justin being traded a month (or so) ago versus now? And since you’re using fancy vernacular, if using ‘emprical data’ (or probability), where does it say (statistically I assume) Caleb measures up to previous #1 overall picks? I’m genuinely fascinated to know how people like Mel Kiper get such high regard in this subject when he’s been wrong an awful lot of the time.

And I ask again…based on?

Ok then maybe you need to ‘dumb it down then’. In the last 25 years how many #1 overall picks have won a Super Bowl versus those who have that weren’t and also did? And what are you basing your projection on that Williams will be better than the rest of his class overall? When in fact you say you haven’t watched any film on or studied Nix? Hypotheticals or ?!!

Please do.

Ah ah ah ah…please qualify by adding “in the NFL” and add ‘in your opinion’ if you’d like. 😁👍 We do not know this to be fact.

To be clear, the odds of #1 overall picks at QB winning the Super Bowl (multiple or not) is less than any other player not chosen #1 overall. … at least in the last 25 years. Add in only two QBs that have won the Heisman have played in and won the Super Bowl. And in the case of Williams (who regressed his last year - the year after getting the Heisman) had essentially the same stats his two years in the PAC-12 as did Nix and his two years there.

I don’t know. I could see LA in a form of rebuild and maybe LA would allow Herbert a reset somewhere else while compiling a bunch of picks. If true to his word Harbaugh has a really high opinion of McCarthy and could have a fair number of pieces in place for him to do well. And Harbaugh is crazy enough to try just that.

Add D’Andre Swift to the “for” category.

Now you’re talking!

Only issue I have with what you said is this; mostly because he's Trubisky 2.0 (In my mind) ---and Mongo wants him. 😉 Otherwise...all well said.

Good video. I was just going to comment on his speed. Couldn't imagine he'd be top end anymore. But somehow he manages to consistently get open. I couldn't help but notice he got behind Pro Bowler Jaylon Johnson in one of his receptions 😏 So now the question will be, is Moore or Allen the #1 receiver? Regardless having Allen on the team will definitely help open up Moore a bit MORE often. And if they draft one of the top 3 WRs...oh man! To think he's been in the league since 2013 and playing for SD/LA that whole time is pretty incredible. Because I was curious I wanted to see who else was drafted the same year as he and the list includes; OT Eric Fisher (#1 overall), Barkevious Mingo (#6 overall), DJ Fluker (OT #11 overall), DeAndre Hopkins (#27 overall), Cordarelle Patterson (#29 overall), Alec Olgetree (#30 overall) and Kyle Long (OG #20 overall).

For me the math aint' mathin. I'm not really sure why but quantitative physics was never really my strong suit. I'll have to engage my salamander brain and make sense of if all. In the meantime.... Going back over the last 25 years, quarterbacks who were selected #1 overall and won a Super Bowl were 4 (or 16%). Of those 4 they won 6 total games (24%). QBs that were selected in the first round but NOT #1 overall won 8 games (32%). The rest of the games were won by QBs either drafted in later rounds or not drafted at all (Kurt Warner) meaning they won 12 games (48%). Of course half of those were won by Brady...so there's that. So...in theory a QB chosen in the first round but not #1 overall is 8% more likely to win a Super Bowl than the one chosen #1 overall (right?) And since this is the "keep Justin Fields" therapeutic thread, maybe that QB is already on the team? 🤷‍♂️

In theory his idea makes sense. Obviously he wrote this before Kennum went to Carolina and the Bears signed Allen but I think as he says the DE and WR are still positions of need. IHMO that is.

Interesting and good find. Never would have considered Hostetler until now.

My first blush on this reminds me of the time Victor Cruz signing with the Bears and never playing...until I looked at his stats. Last year Allen: (13 games) 150 targets 108 REC for 1,243 yds (11.5 avg) and 7TDs Last year Moore: (17 games) 136 targets 96 REC for 1,364 yds (14.2 avg) and 8 TDs Allen made the Pro Bowl....Moore did not.

If this was in fact Wonnum you were talking about, I read his deal with Carolina was 2 years for $14.5 million. Allegedly he never made it out of the Panther's facility to negotiate with Chicago. Still, that price isn't horrible. https://www.bleachernation.com/bears/2024/03/14/dj-wonnum-bears-car/

I was thinking the same thing and if you are looking for how a coach says he's non-committal to who his starting QB will be, new Seahawks HC Mike McDonald is that. When asked about Smith being the starter next year he said: "The first thing I want everybody to know is that as an organization we're always looking, we're always trying to figure out what's best for the team all the time." If Waldron needs a guy to demonstrate the system as a veteran Smith would be the right guy to do it and Justin would have nearly an optimal opportunity as a starter with both Smith and Drew Lock gone. However, when I read the below article it mentions some contract language that could be tricky (and messy) for Seattle (second article below). https://fox59.com/sports/sports-illustrated/a217c297/new-seahawks-coach-makes-eye-opening-statement-about-geno-smiths-job-security/ https://www.si.com/nfl/2024/02/15/seattle-seahawks-geno-smith-fully-guaranteed-contract-2024

I’m curious if it’ll be DJ Wonnum? He’s set to visit today after meeting with the Panthers yesterday . To me he’s what Sweat was to Chase Young in Washington. In this case Danielle Hunter got most of the hype in Minny. Wonnum is just closing out his rookie contract and had 8 sacks last season while doing it (he’s young and peaking). https://www.nbcsportschicago.com/nfl/chicago-bears/vikings-pass-rusher-to-visit-bears-in-free-agency-this-week-per-report/546467/?amp=1

X2 I’m not as sure about that. Social media (if it’s any guage) still tracks polling at about 50/50. And the Fields detractors who started by saying he’d surely get the Bears maybe a 1st or 2nd pick in exchange AND that he would be traded by now have changed their tune to ‘noone in the league wants him’.