Alaskan Grizzly

Simply put, is it the receiver or the passer that makes them look good? As I’ve been reminded numerous times, great QBs make other players look great. And although I know who Adam was referring to the other day when he mentioned a college QB struggled in the NFL after having 1st round WRs to throw so, I asked sarcastically was he referring to Joe Burrow?

No doubt however he does elsewhere will be measured to whomever replaces him. I would suspect that to last a while. And FWIW, although technically correct, I would (respectfully) disagree he’s ’just like Trubisky’ as his fan base has been much more invested this time round. And because of that the Ghost of Justin will be around for a bit. Only way to exorcise that is for whomever replaces him to play their ‘cajones out’.

Maybe. The one All-22 that PHX asked me to loook at showed him doing a lot of single read quick dumps to short route receivers. There wasn’t much in the way of reading off of safeties that I saw. Maybe he does it well, I dunno but that’s just one plus (if accurate) in his arsenal. FWIW I saw Daniels do that very thing in the All22 I shared earlier and the commentator said as much. The one big difference for me (besides the other stuff I mentioned before) is how more accurate Daniels appears downfield than Williams. Granted the video I shared had some drops he at least hit the receiver ‘in the vicinity’. Whereas Williams has a tendency to sail his long throws. This post brought to you courtesy of Costco Irish Whisky and a Guinness chaser. Happy St Pats day. ☘️???

Yeah was just reading about that. Takes the sting a little out of Justin moving on for peanuts. But curious who those other teams were and what they were offering. Poles must not have been as concerned on the return in this instance.

Understood. And earlier in the year I was less inclined to like 5th (or older) year Seniors coming out. BUT, if you consider he’s playing against NFL ready defenses in the SEC AND he got better, not worse, then I think that is something definitely to consider. As far as the ‘NFL caliber’ players he’s playing with, I only ask: how do you think these players got so good? Isn’t Poles building a “stacked team” for some rookie (or QB not named Fields) to work with? ??‍♂️ With Williams he actually regressed from 2022-23. So who's to say he wouldn’t continue that regression from last year to this? And if he does and is drafted by Chicago…welp. You mean Joe Burrow?

Found the same guy do an All-22 breakdown on Daniels (below). I have to admit he does a nice laymen termed breakdown of what he's seeing. Really helps with the analysis. As I see more of these and now with Justin out of the picture, I'd have to say Daniels has moved up for me. Before it was Nix but only as a developmental piece after we gave Justin one more year. From watching the review on this, I see a player complete passes pretty much wherever. I don't see him locking onto players as much and where Williams falters (on the long ball) he does much better at. I also like the fact he's more 'prototypical' in being 6'4" vs Williams 6'1' (allegedly). The one thing I don't like is that he's a Heisman winner and goes against my concern of how Heisman winners traditionally don't pan out; at the very least don't win Super Bowls as often. Daniels' record while at LSU (an SEC team) was 19-7. Oddly enough he split against Alabama losing to them this year (the video example below) but beat them last year. Comparatively for the 2023 season here's how Daniels did head-to-head against Williams: Williams: 266/388 3,633 yards 9.4 avg 30 TDs 5 INTs (170.15 rating) Daniels: 236/327 3,812 yards 11.7 avg 40 TDs 4 INTs (208.0 rating)

REALLY Like the idea of trading out of 1 but you really think Wash would pass on getting Williams if they could? In the grad scheme of your draft it wouldn’t make a whole lot of difference (I assume you go with Maye?) but whats important is you get players like MHJ and Alt at the top end of the draft.

This. ☝️?? Except for me is Daniels. And at a distant second Nix.

Yeah to say I’m disappointed would be an understatement. Not so much about Justin leaving (that sucks) but to me there still seems to be more holes than high end - quality draft picks left. Oh well I guess we have to trust Poles knows what he’s doing.

And in closing to my fellow Justin supporters…a little levity. https://x.com/mockdraftguyyt/status/1769133392379945018?s=46&t=KrpJmhSTc4DI1sACtjisOQ

Agreed. Oh well.

Could he have used something else other than a potato for his mic?

You’re confusing two points. One about players selected #1 and having won a Heisman and won (and played in) a Super Bowl. That was two. The other conversation highlighted that ‘in the last 26 Super Bowls’ 4 QBs selected overall have won it. 2 of them twice (the Mannings) so six SBs. Nope. Again you’re not comprehending the read. Simply put of the 26 Super Bowls played from 1999-2024, 6 games were won by QBs who were chosen #1 overall. The rest were not. But of those 20 games some were repeats, like Brady (6), Roethlisberger (2) and Mahomes (3). Still none of them were selected #1 overall .

We don’t have goats here in Alaska. Least not those type.

Surely you’ve heard the famous quote: “There are three types of lies. Lies, damn lies and statistics.” Essentially statistics taken in their raw form provide raw data. How you perceive or use them can be twisted however you see fit and help illustrate a narrative. To suggest stats in their raw form are “confusing” would be wrong. But to use the stats in your own analytics is where things can get tricky. Quick question. Do you think Carolina choosing Bryce Young was a “good bet”? How about if you weigh it against them passing on Stroud and seeing how well he did? Same question about former #1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence? He himself three years in and led the league in INTs (his rookie year) and fumbles lost the last two. Does the scale tip to him being a “good bet” if you look at the recent addition of Mac Jones to the team? Who by the way has very similar stats overall, especially passing.

So what…you’re Spock now? Illogical and irrefutable are not the same you know. ??

Excellent work. I couldn’t have said it any better. (Seriously…I couldn’t). ~ signed Antagonistical Goat’s Ass analytics.

Are you telling me Skip won this round of stubbornness? I was hoping you’d be willing to explain…but ok. I’ll stop. ?

You’re using Vegas odds to project QB success? Not necessarily being a betting man what did Vegas say about Justin being traded a month (or so) ago versus now? And since you’re using fancy vernacular, if using ‘emprical data’ (or probability), where does it say (statistically I assume) Caleb measures up to previous #1 overall picks? I’m genuinely fascinated to know how people like Mel Kiper get such high regard in this subject when he’s been wrong an awful lot of the time.

And I ask again…based on?

Ok then maybe you need to ‘dumb it down then’. In the last 25 years how many #1 overall picks have won a Super Bowl versus those who have that weren’t and also did? And what are you basing your projection on that Williams will be better than the rest of his class overall? When in fact you say you haven’t watched any film on or studied Nix? Hypotheticals or ?!!

Please do.

Ah ah ah ah…please qualify by adding “in the NFL” and add ‘in your opinion’ if you’d like. ?? We do not know this to be fact.

To be clear, the odds of #1 overall picks at QB winning the Super Bowl (multiple or not) is less than any other player not chosen #1 overall. … at least in the last 25 years. Add in only two QBs that have won the Heisman have played in and won the Super Bowl. And in the case of Williams (who regressed his last year - the year after getting the Heisman) had essentially the same stats his two years in the PAC-12 as did Nix and his two years there.

I don’t know. I could see LA in a form of rebuild and maybe LA would allow Herbert a reset somewhere else while compiling a bunch of picks. If true to his word Harbaugh has a really high opinion of McCarthy and could have a fair number of pieces in place for him to do well. And Harbaugh is crazy enough to try just that.