DABEARSDABOMB
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Posts posted by DABEARSDABOMB
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1 minute ago, BearFan PHX said:
With Shelton on the team, I think it tells you a few things.
First off, it tells you that Pryor is going to compete at guard, and probably end up the backup for the guard and center slots. He will push Davis for the starting role at RG.
Secondly, it tells you that we aren't going to trade down in order to target JPJ in the bottom of the first.
Thirdly, so far hes signed an OT, an OG AND an OC, and getting all three tells you that it's more likely that he isn't going to trade down the #1 pick, because he is filling so many holes, as if he isn't expecting to have a ton of extra picks this year.
I expect a receiver (incl Bowers) at #9, and we would still have needs at DE and DT. This rebuild still has a year left, so it won't be perfect this year. The defense is looking pretty good, so I'd say we target QB with #1 and WR with #9. With these other holes all addressed, you wouldnt need a haul of picks.
It's not "proof" but it's starting to lean that way for sure.My guess is we will see they signed the Vikings Dlinemen by end of the day. I'm guessing 3yr 30M. I still expect a wideout to sign as well and than I do think they are highly likely to take either a dlinemen or wideout at 9 (or if they move down - they move down but still target BAU but at those positions).
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18 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:
Sam Howell just got traded to Seattle in a pick swap. Basically moved up a round with 2 picks and gave 2 lower round picks back.
So basically there 4th and 5th round picks turned into a 3rd and 4th round pick. I would think that is probably the floor for Justin - the downside is - Seattle was probably one of the better places for Justin to go. Denver is really the main starting frontier - and I Don't think Field(s) fits Payton much but in fairness he had Tayson Hill and Winston either who probably weren't guys you would have said fit Payton's style.
At this point - giving up our 3rd and 4th for say a 2nd and 3rd and maybe a 4th rounder next year would be a HUGE win (presuming they are drafting a QB).
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Sam Howell just got traded to Seattle in a pick swap. Basically moved up a round with 2 picks and gave 2 lower round picks back.
So basically there 4th and 5th round picks turned into a 3rd and 4th round pick. I would think that is probably the floor for Justin - the downside is - Seattle was probably one of the better places for Justin to go. Denver is really the main starting frontier - and I Don't think Field(s) fits Payton much but in fairness he had Tayson Hill and Winston either who probably weren't guys you would have said fit Payton's style.
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I don't think we have made the oline good - but they improved the floor and have improved the depth. I still think they need an upgrade on the line at the starting spot. If Alt somehow fell and presuming they had a high grade on him - I have ZERO issue taking him and than seeing where Jones can fit cause I truly believe developing the line into a strength is key (top 5 type of line).
You don't do that without making big investments - both in draft and where needed supplementally via free agency.
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So at this point I think if he is starting - it comes down to Denver or the Seahawks. Hopefully both of them decide they want him (Seattle would need to want to move on from Geno).
Now I’m going to propose something wild - but Poles is a creative guy so I will propose Bears trade Fields for Geno Smith and a couple picks. Geno worked with Waldron and he is Caleb’s back up but can also serve as competition and someone who knows the system etc. Seahawks free up cap space and Bears get more value by taking on his contract.
Bears can also use Geno as a potential trade candidate next season for a team that needs to upgrade their back up.
Note: I think Miami could be an option for him as a backup. Tua gets banged up so could be a good get there. Chargers or Rams as well. Rams could use it to see if he could work with McVay and than they replace Stafford when he retires (rams have a ton of late round ammo too). Eagles another great potential spot.
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1 hour ago, Pixote said:
But will Poles want to pay starting LOT money for him to resign when his rookie deal expires?
I think if he plays well this year - he gets an extension. If he plays meh - they are use cap space next year or a first round pick on a tackle.
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5 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:
if all the WRs are gone, and the Bears have an OT ranked high who falls, it's definitely a possibility. You dont go into a draft locked into a position with a pick unless you have the #1 pick. Weve seen that with good and bad GMs alike. It's just the way its done. Like playing poker - you cant control the next card, but you can play the odds over time, and picking BPA is always what you strive to be able to do.
If Alt is sitting there - I draft him and don’t think twice. If he isn’t and it is one of the wideouts - same thing.
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I am curious to see what the Bears do - would be pretty content with Renfrow and Samuel at wideout in advance of draft. I presume Williams will sit for a while now that he has been released as I presume most teams will take their time and see how his ACL Rehab is going before signing him to an agreement.
Bears would presumably have a leg up given familiarity that exists (Everett + Bears Wideout Coach). I also wonder if they do something similar with Connor Williams, who I still think would be a solid get - let Bates play and than he becomes your swing guard and affordable depth move.
Give a pass rusher a 1-2 year deal whether Bosa, or one of the guys the Eagles eventually cut, Clowney, etc. Basically keep your cap space ready for next year - I think someone mentioned it, but now wasn't the time to go all-in, given the cap space.
We will have a young QB - so even if he plays like CJ Stroud (which is your best case scenario) - you aren't going to a supwerbowl - so make sure you are not so cheap that you put your rookie QB in a bad spot (ie what the Bears did with Field(s) surrounding him with nothing for 2 years), but in general - keep your flexibility for the upcoming years and than push your chips more all in with the cap space you have (they'll also have a full suite of picks next year to bolster dline and potentially oline).
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Did not see Ridley getting that much money.
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Yeah - this likely means Falcons and Titans are looking Oline / Defense with their pick, so one of the wideouts should be there. It also doesn't preclude one of those team(s) from trading down.
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Just now, adam said:
I don't think it would preclude them from drafting a WR high. His price can't be that high. He has only had 2 1K seasons, and the last one was in 2021. So he is 2 years removed from a great season. How much do you think he would command? His last contract averaged 20M AAV, and that seems way too high for his production. I was thinking something similar to Mooney's $13M.
But $13M is still pretty steep for a guy coming off an ACL injury, but I would be on board for say 2yr 20M. Feels like a good risk/reward. I just worry about how a wideout who was already on the slower side who relied a lot on his height will do coming back from that injury.
Or maybe it doesn't impact it as much cause speed isn't really a huge part of his game.
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12 minutes ago, adam said:
The big splash for me would be Mike Williams. Coming off injury, he shouldn't command top dollar compared to his potential as a super WR2. Compliments Moore perfectly at 6'4" 220.
He is just so injury prone - I would still want to grab one of the high end wideouts - but I do think Williams is a good fit next to Moore.
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Khalil Mack deal restructured - so he is not going anywhere. Now to see if Keenan Allen or Joey Bosa hit the street. Mike Williams is out there, but Allen would be a great get on a short term deal (he's older - but dude can still play).
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No terms disclosed - reported by Adam Jahns. He also was in Indy with Eberflus back in 2021. Know nothing else about him - but sounds like a swing tackle.
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Drew Lock is off the board. I thought Bears might add him as a vet back-up who was familiar with Waldron's system. He ended up going to Giants who were in need of a backup.
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16 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:
I agree back. Really like your suggestion and 'yes' it makes too much sense, especially if you see how well Belichick and the Pats were successful for so long in doing it.
While on the subject of "generational QBs" and the talk of the odds for #1 QBs winning a Super Bowl, I stumbled across an interesting stat/article regarding the success rate of Heisman Trophy winners in the NFL.
The article below I think is a bit older so I'm not sure how accurate it has been since Cam Newton was in the Super Bowl but anyways....in the history of 58 Super Bowls, only 18 players who have won the Heisman have made it to the Super Bowl. Of those 18 players, 7 were QBs; Cam Newton (2016), Matt Leinart (2009), Chris Weinke (2004), Jim Plunkett (1981 and 1984), Roger Staubach (1971, '72, '78 and '79), John Huarte (1969) and Paul Hornung (1967). Of those 7 only three actually played/started in a Super Bowl (Newton, Plunkett and Staubach).
So by that rationale, Williams and now Daniels have a little less luster for me.
https://www.nfl.com/photos/heisman-winners-and-the-super-bowl-0ap3000000631665
I believe this is a myth. Beli and the Pats haven't had a draft pick get a 2nd contract in over a decade. They did do a ton of trading down - which is not bad - but their ability to actually benefit and get good players was poor, especially the more that Beli led those drafts. Everything got worse once Brady left because Brady's skill-set could elevate others around him.
Not knocking Beli the coach - but they really really got away with horrendous draft picks and free agency for a long time because of the greatness of their QB.
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Hunter Renfrow released by Raiders. Wouldn't expect him to get a lot of money - coming off 2 down years working with Mcdaniels, before that though had 3 straight good years, with his best being a 1K+ season. I would expect you could get him for a few million and Bears need DEPTH pieces badly.
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With Keenan Allen and Mike Williams both on the block/potentially released later today, it is worth noting that the Bears WR coach was with Chargers working with those 2 for 3 years.
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Just now, ASHKUM BEAR said:
Big no on Young, not worth the chance of him waking up. Poles wants a mentality and culture of team players that buy into HITS
If it weren't for him and Sweat being tight, I would have said for sure no. But this could be one where good intelligence and a good teammate and culture could be a good thing. I don't think Washington was a very healthy culture.
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1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:
Saw the numbers on his deal, (allegedly) he was offered 3 years $39 million from both Chicago and Jax. For perspective, recently departed Darnell Mooney was offered 3 years $30 million from Chicago. But instead took 3 years $39 million to join Atlanta.
Yeah - I think Bears offered Mooney 3yr deal worth 10M+ (it didn't say how much) before the '23 season. I don't know whether they offered him anything this year. They did try for Davis and with Poles things are quiet so who knows who they are talking to now.
Samuel, former teammate of Moore, seems like a potential good fit. Ridley could be as well.
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If Joey Bosa gets cut - he could be a very interesting signing, if the Bears think they know how to solve his injury issues (or if it was more fluke the last 2 seasons)? When he's healthy he is a difference maker.
Chase Young is also interesting. He hasn't been the player everyone thought he should be - but he still had 7.5 sacks this past year and is still very young (24 years old). Sweat knows him well - he clearly has some "Claypool" in him, but if he had an awakening this year and went into a good off-season he could be a very good buy-low candidate (not cheap - cause pass rusher(s) cost money).
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2 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:
Tee Higgins? I know he's a bit more complicated but he wants out of Cincy and would be (IMHO) a decent #2.
If Bears had a 2nd round pick - I would think it would be a legit option. But they don't. So unless Bengals will trade Tee HIggins to move up to 9 (and Bears get their pick - which I think is like 16th). Bears basically move down 7 spots but pick up and pay a wideout big money ($25M per year) to pair with Moore. Still have a FRP which they probably use on defense or oline (or maybe they move down a few more spots again and grab a center). Say move down to 23 or 24 - pick up a late 2nd / early 3rd - grab an olinemen or linemen with FRP and than draft a wideout with the other pick and than use our own draft pick on another olinemen (maybe someone we think could develop into an interio player).
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6 minutes ago, dawhizz said:
Barring a Danielle Hunter signing or something, it’s shaping up to be a pretty underwhelming FA haul for the Bears, IMO. Sounds like it’s the Jags or Pats for Ridley. Really needed a potential #2 WR and upgrade at DE, plus maybe someone to compete at C and maybe we get one of those? Maybe? Things can change, but I’m not thrilled.
I expect Bears will get one of the 5 best wideouts. I also will admit - when you look at the big FA signings over last handful of years, more miss than not, so I don't mind the - be strategic on where you are taking your initial swing - than be measured and see what market is and find next wave of guys at your price and where you can where you think you have reduced risks.
I presume Everett is one of those - reduced risks - team knows him very well. Not sure about Byrd - we have gotten a lot of people from Tennessee so maybe familiarity there.
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11 minutes ago, adam said:
Yep, only UFAs count, so Swift (3/24) and Everett (2/12) so far vs Mooney (3/39), Jones (3/30)
Swift - 5th, Everett - 6th
Mooney - 4th, Jones - 5thEven though the Bears have higher rounds, I believe they would cancel out. We would need the Bears to lose more than they gain.
Here is a good breakdown on the cancellations. Denver is a good example in there, as they gained and lost 3, and all of them cancelled each other out.https://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart
Is there anyone else who is going to get signed of value that will help Bears as it relates to this?
Free Agency 2024
in Bearstalk
Posted
I meant Wonnum - but I guess he signed a 2yr deal with the Panthers today.