DABEARSDABOMB
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Posts posted by DABEARSDABOMB
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Good move by Steelers but Cousins goes to Atlanta going to be interesting to see where Fields ends up.
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Baker is nearing a 3yr 100M deal with over 50M guaranteed to stay with Bucs. This is why I love getting Caleb. Fields is totally fine if he was willing to sign a below market deal - but paying mediocre qbs that sort of money is going to mire a franchise in mediocrity.
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2 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:
Last year he had 55 pressures. 9.5 sacks and signed for 2.5 mil, go get him.
I could dig those numbers - that was great value.
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4 hours ago, Stinger226 said:
At his age he's taking any starting gig he could get. He has never mentioned retirement in his last few years, odds are slim on that. He will not be cheap.
I think whomever get Wilson is going to get someone highly motivated to stick it to Sean Payton and Denver.
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1 minute ago, Stinger226 said:
They definitely are. I think we wait until after the first wave gets signed and grab a vet on a 1 year10 deal. Clowny comes to mind. He
I don’t like Clowneh. He goes everywhere and seems to never do much. He has been all hype. I want a 3 down impact linemen and the Bears have all the space to pay for one.
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4 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:
I did as you requested and here is what I came away with (apologies to others for the length).
I should preface this by saying on another podcast Warner said he has never tried to project how well a college QB will do in the NFL. Just that he can comment on the traits of QBs and how he thinks they'll do going forward. Also of note, others in the social media world pointed out that Warner predicted Bryce Young and Zach Wilson would do great in the NFL, that CJ Stroud's play wouldn't transfer to the NFL and that Justin Herbert would struggle. For the record he still ranks this year's QBs as:
- Williams (although he does say he needs to see more tape on him)
- Daniels
- Penix or Nix (interchangeable in his mind)
- Maye (sorry Mongo)
- McCarthy
I watched pretty much the whole video you included and did some screengrabs in a few instances. Unfortunately, I'm not tech-savvy enough to stick them next to the narrative so they may have been posted out of order.
So about play 3-4 we see Williams do an RPO with a deep read. He opts for the deep read and overthrows him by a bit. The very next play, same thing but along the left side. Again, he overthrows the receiver.
Play 5(?) ends up having no receiver open to begin with so "he makes things happen" and eventually finds a receiver open. (Justin does this type of thing all the time and it's called "hero ball" and considered a bad thing).
About 8 mins in was a screen throw and an example of Williams being able to throw from different arm angles. Something we've see Justin do time and again. In fact some have commented on how often Justin has had his passes batted down. How much better do you think a QB that allegedly is 6'1" (and some change) would do compared to a QB that is 6'3"?
At about 9 mins in we see what you and Warner refer to as progression reading. I would agree, except... He starts by working from right to left. Warner in fact points that out. Williams ends up throwing to a receiver along the left side when a receiver is open on the right-hand side he was just "reading" (1st picture below).
At 16 mins. in we see him go to the receiver along the right side with single man coverage. Warner says he's not a fan of this throw but 'not mad at him for trying' (he missed). Meanwhile to his left he had the check down receiver and another receiver about 20 yards up field coming back open.
A question I ask is maybe he is better at middle of the field passing (Justin's weakness) but so far hasn't shown a lot of overly impressive deep passing success. That is unless you count the aforementioned improv play (aka hero ball).
Case in point: just around 19 mins he starts with a read on the left side and has no one open. Meanwhile he has a similar play development with a slot (?) receiver working back to open space and about 15-20 yards beyond LOS (picture 2). Instead Williams tries deep and gets the INT. Warner remarks? "Caleb tries to make too much out of nothing." (aka hero ball).
A few plays later shows the slot wr execute a hook route on the right side. Warner asks out loud why he doesn't do like he did before and throw quick to the open receiver (picture 3). Instead he takes off and gets the sack.
After watching this I would pose the same question to you that you ask of Fields. On those short and quick reads, how many of them are "scripted"? We see in the last illustration a play that he apparently has done time and again but misses the open read and takes off, only to get sacked. Warner mentions at the beginning of the video how this is Colorado and that they didn't have a very good defense (he admits as much in other podcasts of looking for stats and not how they do against ranked competition). Nevertheless, this plays into the concern (I have) when he is pitted against better teams. So far he hasn't proven he's really all that great against that type competition. His three game losing streak from last season sorta shows that.
In that game - Caleb had 6TDs and 10 incomplete passes. He also completed a pass to 10 different players…talk about reading a d and not just going to one guy.
He went 30-40 for 405 yards and 6TDs and they won by a td cause USC defense is awful (Colorados is too in fairness).
I watched that game and I was blown away at how smooth Caleb was (happened to be in Chicago eating a deep dish hole watching).
Really appreciate the level of review - and I don’t disagree with some of those examples but there was a ton of great in that game. Great reads and great throws.
I am a huge Fields fan boy - love him and want nothing more than for him to be a star. I will root for him wherever he plays next cause he is so likable.
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2 hours ago, AZ54 said:
Ain't nobody gonna out work Byard. This guy is a great locker room fit and a great player to lead the defensive backfield. He may have lost half a step but you can bet he's working this offseason to get it back. I expected we'd pay closer to $10mil for a FS so finding one now who was former All-Pro for what I think is going to be $7.5m/y is pretty good.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lCcifj6nmsI
It might not be obvious but the times are changing. 2 years ago FAs spurned us even when we offered more money. 2 years ago the best coaches (coordinators) spurned us looking for a "better landing spot". This year we were the first to sign one of the best OC candidates in the offseason. Now you see a former All-Pro signing who, at this point in his career, almost certainly wants a chance to win a Superbowl but at least to be on the playoff team. Now we have Pro Bowl talent at each level of the defense and two in the backfield. Can we find a way to add one more on the front line like Danielle Hunter (est $17m/y)? Or Christian Wilkins est $15m/y? I don't think there's budget for that but it's tantalizing to think about it. If we got Wilkins then grab Turner or Latu at 9.
I think both of those guys are signing for 20M plus.
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Seems like a solid short term vet signing. I am guessing they are going to spend on a dlinemen and want to get a few things checked off so they can focus on first few days in a couple key targets.
My guess is either Vikings or Dolphins dlinemen and for some reason I think they add one of Saquon or Jacobs and then probably wait for a vet wideout signing and maybe pick up another guy olineman.
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Mac going to Jacksonville where he will back up Trevor. Fields at least worth more than this - how much more, I don’t know.
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3 hours ago, adam said:
If they trade Fields, I really hope they at least get a 3rd rounder for him and at least one more pick, even if it is a conditional pick in 2025. The 49ers got a 4th rounder for Lance, so anything less than a 3rd for Fields will be a failure on Poles part.
I am thinking like a 2024 3rd rounder with a conditional 2025 4th rounder that can become a 3rd or 2nd depending on performance/play time, etc.
That is the floor for me. If they can’t get a 3rd and a conditional 3rd or something next year than Fields value is so bad Bears and Fields should keep him. Fields would have no leverage at that point to be anything other than a great teammate.
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4 hours ago, adam said:
A tale of 2 rumors:
then like 2 hours later:
This is beyond comical at this point.
He isn’t staying unless his trade market is awful and he actually chooses to stay and compete with Caleb vs going somewhere else he doesn’t want to be.
It is obvious - Bears are taking a qb in round 1.
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Likewise - welcome aboard!! And I am with you - I am fired up!!!
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Sounds like cap hit is about $15M - so Bears have $50M in space heading into free agency. I presume rookie pool will take up another $10M, so $40M available for free agency. Should allow them to add a couple impact players.
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Just now, adam said:
Awesome deal, and fair for both sides. Getting him for under $20M AAV is great for the Bears, and him getting $54M guaranteed is great for JJ.
Schefter says JJ is getting $60M in the first 3 years with only $16M in Year 4 (2027).
Creates some space for a time where the Bears will (hopefully) be looking at extending a QB getting closer to that 5th year option (*wink wink*).
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This seems like a very fair deal on both sides and glad to see it executed quickly. I also think it sends a message in terms of Poles working this out and getting an in-house guy signed. We have done it with Kmet and now JJ. To be honest - I would still be open to getting Mooney if he was open to say a 2 or 3yr deal worth 24M or so.
Now to hope JJ stays healthy and the improved on ball production (ie turnovers) continues over this contract (and ideally another one)!!!
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15 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:
Rd ð
That's interesting, someone wants to pay Wilson but Justin cost to much to keep for one more year . I'm all in on grabbing a QB and having him sit for a year and having ( logical choice) Justin play here one more year. That's what u think is going to happen.
Wilson is going to cost league minimum for 2 years due to offset language. So Bears would pay him 500k and Broncos would pay 37.5K. So he is cheapest starting qb money could buy basically.
And Justin isn’t good enough in my opinion. Wilson is way better and Williams will be way better.
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No idea who this is - but this option would be intriguing. You take the HAUL and move back to 2 and than again to say 4. Get multiple future 1sts and a few seconds and than draft MHJ and get McCarthy with next pick and sit him for a season while Wilson leads Bears to playoffs and McCarthy gets time to be ready.
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34 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:
I think they are doing that for JJ to get a realistic view of is worth. They are probably only a few mil a year apart but Poles plays hardball , JJ has to back off the highest paid contract narrative.
Last year anyone could have gotten Lamar and no one even offered. I am kind of curious - who was last franchise tag player where a team went this route and actually made a formal offer which required matching? I felt like in early 2000s this type of thing happened but I can’t remember any team trying to go this way? Adam or anyone else know last major player where this happened?
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1 minute ago, BearFan PHX said:
I would definitely take two first rounders for JJ.One of them we'd have to use on his replacement though, and the other one comes in 2025?
Yeah that is my presumption and I would do it as well and go write a big check for one of the stud dlinemen.
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One interesting thing is Bears applied the non exclusive tag - so JJ can negotiate with others - Bears can match or we get 2 1st rounders.
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My question is - if you were Poles, would you think about trading Johnson. I suspect probability of that happening is low - seems very clear that Poles wants JJ to stick around and JJ wants to be here, so its just a matter of getting the economics to work out.
With that said - if you were the Bears, seeing that Poles seems to have an eye for DB talent - would you be open to trading JJ. For me - if I could get a 1st rounder plus another pick (not like a 2nd rounder or anything - maybe a future 3rd) - than I would at least consider it (I presume FRP would be back end) - than deploy the cap space on dline.
JJ is a really good DB though so I have zero issue giving him his 4yr 80-90M deal.
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1 minute ago, BearFan PHX said:
good analysis, it all makes sense assuming teams really want him. I think someone will, I hope two someones will.
It also hit me - it behooves Cousin(s) camp to push the Atlanta narrative as well - cause it gives him some more leverage in his negotiations with the Vikings. I do hope we see Cousin(s) resign with Minnesota sooner vs. later cause I do think that significantly strengthens the Bears leverage. I also think if I were to guess - I guess the Steeler(s) are the team that ultimately pays the price to get Field(s). I think Atlanta has more optionality given how early they pick in Rnd 1 and they could easily go McCarthy and sign a vet like Mayfield or someone else as a bridge guy. So if the price gets too high - I could see Atlanta bailing out vs. I think Pittsburgh needs to - but the Bears need to have enough leverage to get them to pay their price tag or get close to it.
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So for the Bears to maximize value - they need 2 teams interested. I think everyone thought on paper the 2 most likely teams were Steelers & Falcons, but maybe Seahawks, Broncos, Vikings, Pats could be options as well. Some more likely than others. Bucs could fit that bill too - if they lose Mayfield. But the predominant favorites seemed to be Falcons & Steelers (this assumes Cousin's stays put).
Is it a surprise that the 2 rumors floating out there right now are Steelers want to stay put at QB and Falcons putting a lot of talk about making a run for Cousin's? I don't think that is a surprise and presume in the game of NFL off-season chess, these are teams getting word out there to try and play the leverage game and shift leverage in the favor of them (vs. the Bears). Very curious to see how it plays out - when insiders were reporting Bears could get a 1st rounder - that seemed way too high (at that point why not just draft one of the last top ranked QB's for at least a shot at a 5 year deal - with 4 years on a rookie scale). When the reports are they could barely get a 3rd - I think that is also too low - I think the high is a 2nd this year followed by a later round pick (say a 3rd or 4th this year or a 3rd next year) and on the lower end I see the inverse - you get a 3rd rounder this year but than a 2nd rounder next year (maybe some conditions applied to it).
One thing I hadn't thought of is how does Field(s) and his agent play into this. If I were Field(s), my goal is to get to a franchise that wants me and to be party to facilitate a trade. If this drags out - than the 5th year option is off the table and I run the risk of basically being a one and down guy and at risk of NOT getting a large payday in a year. I wonder if Justin and his agent are open to a Jordan Love type of extension - where a team basically gets him for 3 years at a lower cost (but it guarantees Justin one big payday to set him and his family for life - while also putting him a position, given how young he is, to get a couple massive contracts if he ultimately performs).
I would also think if you are the Bears - if Fields is open to that - it increases probabilty a team goes out and gets Justin - cause they have a bit more certainty to what they are getting in terms of locking him in for 3 years before paying him. Takes 2 to tango but I'm curious and if Justin was forward thinking there are a lot of reasons to do this.
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2 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:
its a good thought, the Hill chart says sliding from 9 all the way to 20 gets you a mid 2nd, but going to 15 only gets you a high 3rd. You could get JPJ that way, but I think we really need weapons for the new QB too. Maybe a WR at 15 and a center but not JPJ in the 2nd?
The Justin picks are going to be really important, I hope we are able to get value for him, but if theres only one team interested, they could well wait until we just cut him if there are no other offers.If one of top 3 wideouts are there than I’m fine staying but Thomas of LSU looks real good consolation prize.
Bears sign D'Andre Swift (3yr 24M - 15M guaranteed)
in Bearstalk
Posted
Reports are he is one of their primary focuses (vs. Saquon). I know the name is less sexy but this would be a really good get. He's still young and he's a really good football player. With rookie QB, Bears can afford to splurge a bit at RB (and it saves them from having to use another draft pick on the position in a draft where they don't have a ton of picks).