adam

NE drafted Mac Jones. I think they were able to do that when they had Brady, which allowed them to continually turn over the roster without having to sign guys to second contracts (Chandler Jones, etc).

I don't know if correlation equals causation here. I suspect defensive players will have a higher rate. I think it means good/great teams rarely draft in the top 10 (KC traded up for Mahomes), and rarely do teams with a top 10 pick improve enough from a bottom 10 team to a Super Bowl contender with the drafted player still on their roster. It makes sense. The Bears situation is super unique. This will be the first time a team that didn't finish with the worst record is drafting #1 overall without having to trade up for it.

Yeah, these are supposed to be the guaranteed hit guys. It's just interesting how few make it to a Super Bowl with their drafted team.

The best part, which some people are missing is, this really is a no-lose situation. Poles has had 2x get out of jail free cards, last year and this year. If they run it back with Fields, he will have a mountain of draft capital to play with (I would even expect a trade up at some point). If they go with Williams, his floor makes it fairly low risk and the QB clock is reset, allowing them to sign some bigger names and retain more of their guys as they hit FA.

For TEs, only 1 of 5 made it to a Super Bowl, that's 20% of the TEs drafted in the top 10. None won one, so zero. I don't know what is wrong there. Davis went to 2 with the 49ers, so a top 10 TE appeared with his drafted team in 8.3% of the Super Bowls since 2000. I was doing this from a drafted player perspective, not overall total appearances. Mahomes would really skew the stats for QB. He counts as 1 QB to win and appear out of the number of QBs that were also drafted in the top 10. This is the likelihood that a specific position drafted in the top 10 will win or appear in a Super Bowl.

I hope defense looks better. RB was shocking to be honest. I did not expect it to be the best one

43 QBs have been drafted in the top 10 since 2000. Of those 43, only 2 (Eli Manning and Patrick Mahomes) have won a Super Bowl with their drafted team, which is 5%. Only 6 (Ryan, Manning, Newton, Mahomes, Goff, and Burrow) have appeared in a Super Bowl with their drafted team, ~14%. WR - 3% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 15% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team RB - 12% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 24% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team TE - 0% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 20% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team OL - 8% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 21% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team QB - 5% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 14% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team Stafford won one with LAR, Leftwich was a backup with PIT when they won. So for Offensive Players, there have been 137 drafted in the top 10 since 2000. 17.5% have made a Super Bowl appearance with their drafted team, and 5.8% have won one with their drafted team. Summary: RB - 12% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 24% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team OL - 8% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 21% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team OFF - 5.8% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 17% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team QB - 5% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 14% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team WR - 3% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 15% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team TE - 0% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 20% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team

39 Offensive Linemen have been drafted in the top 10 since 2000. Of those 39, 3 (Johnson, Okung, Fisher) have won a Super Bowl with their drafted team, which is 8%. Surprisingly 8 OLs have appeared in a Super Bowl with their drafted team, ~21%. WR - 3% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 15% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team RB - 12% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 24% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team TE - 0% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 20% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team OL - 8% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 21% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team Next up QB, to close out the offense.

5 TEs have been drafted in the top 10 since 2000. Vernon Davis - 3 Super Bowls, lost 2 with SF, won one on the roster in DEN. Kellen Winslow T.J. Hockenson Kyle Pitts Eric Ebron Small sample size, but only Davis has been to a Super Bowl, 0/5 = 0% Super Bowl wins, 1/5 = 20% Super Bowl Appearance. WR - 3% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 15% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team RB - 12% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 24% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team TE - 0% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 20% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team

For RBs, it is better for just the RB but not the RB+QB combo. 17 RBs have been drafted in the top 10 since 2000. There were 2 Super Bowl wins (Lewis and Bush) with 4 total appearances (2-2) adding Gurley and Benson. What is crazy is in those 2 Super Bowls, they had Dilfer and Brees, both drafted by a different team. WR - 3% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 15% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team RB - 12% win a Super Bowl with their drafted team; 24% make it to a Super Bowl on their drafted team So far I have not found a top 10 RB or WR that was drafted by the same team as their QB who won a Super Bowl together, ouch. That is pretty wild.

You got Matt Ryan and Kurt Warner saying they should draft a QB and Ryan Leaf and Dan Orlovsky saying they should keep Fields. I am going to laugh when everyone is wrong and they sign Kirk Cousins lol.

These guys probably would've been cap casualties last offseason if not for the huge dead caps. Now with those more reasonable, they were no-brainer moves. It is nice to move on from them so early, because technically they could've kept them until they needed the money off the books, even into free agency. This would've prevented other teams from even contacting them or their agents about them.

It's hard not to be excited if the Bears go this route. Even if Justin doesn't work out, the team would be stacked and have multiple 1sts and 2nds in 2025.

Here is one way to look at it. Last year Poles said he had to be blown away by a prospect to keep the pick. He wasn't blown away by Stroud or Young. However, I bet he was blown away by Williams last year. Since then, Williams has lost some of his luster. Even then, he was so far ahead of the next guy that he is still the #1 pick, but he is no longer the second coming.

Oh yes, plus Scales and Marcedes Lewis are FAs. I assume bring Scales (36) back and with Cairo (32) would be the two oldest I believe.

I am working on doing all the other positions in the top 10 to see how they end up. It may just correlate the same way, which would ultimately mean the bad teams rarely become good in a timeframe where a top 10 pick is still on their team.

Technically they are still on the team until the league year ends and the new league year begins on March 13th. They have the two day tampering window (whatever that is for) before the league year officially starts that begins on March 11th. So more than likely, if the Bears are going to extend any of their own players, it will happen before March 11th.

$67M in cap space now (3rd most) > $55M effective cap (4th most). Here we go!

He was the last of the 2016 draft class. Jackson is expected to be released, he would be the last of the 2017 draft class. 2018 is already gone (Roquan), and 2019 is gone (Monty). Kmet and Johnson (if signed) would be the 2020 class.

I would say "projected to be better than" as he hasn't taken an NFL snap yet. The projections are very positive and he can still be a bust but odds are he will be at least good to really good. Defenses don't fear the Bears offense. Actually, you can tell the defenses dictate what the offense does when it should be the other way around. Outside of Justin's scrambling ability when they lose contain, Moore was the only threat.

Wow, I knew the officials were bad as we have experienced a ton of missed or phantom calls, but some of those holds were so blatantly obvious AND impacted the play. I always hated the calls away from or behind the play that had no bearing on the outcome of the play, but these are right there. In Week 18, the Packers were holding like crazy, yet never got called for it. So the lesson is keep holding or pay the refs.

Yeah, Shanahan dorked up the OT coin flip. It all comes down to the odds. If you get the ball first, you have a 0% chance to win on your drive. However, if you defer, there is basically a 33% chance the other team will score a TD, 33% chance they kick a FG, and a 33% chance they don't score. So unless they go for 2 and get 8 pts, you technically have a chance to win on your first offensive drive regardless of what the other team did.