adam

Yeah, that makes sense. Trading back is always beneficial if you can get more bang for your buck. I wouldn't mind a 2nd round QB, but it is nice having the 5th year option, though more teams are locking QBs up before then, thus killing the benefit.

Yes, absolutely, make a lifesize voodoo doll of Goff, and on every passing play, you have to jump on the doll, basically sack the doll, even teabag if you have to. The Bears need all the help they can get from the universe. I will be playing binaural beats on every Lions 3rd Down to distract them.

That's hilarious, I made that crap up lol. It will actually be Waning Crescent on the 10th.

The moon will be at waning gibbous, which favors the Bears by 3.

Sunday weather: Rain and snow transitioning to snow showers in the afternoon. Temps in the mid 30s with winds 15-25mph. Weather will be a factor.

Oh wow, Goff is terrible in the cold. 40F or below: 7 games, 65.8 QB Rating, 53.7% Comp, 194 yds/g, 6.0 Y/A, 6 TD, 8 INT for his career. So QB Rating down almost 30 from his average, Comp% down 11 pct, yds/g down 66 yds, and for his career he has a 175 TD to 78 INT ratio, so for him to be 6 and 8 is a huge drop off for both sides, down to less than 1 TD per game and more than 1 INT per game.

Me checking splits now.

Yep, the first one is probably a better solution and hedges better with the rookie deals. The 2nd one is like the Dalton/Glennon debacles that never worked out. However, someone like Browning would not slot in above Fields. However, if he outplayed him in the offseason or preseason, then he would deserve to move up. Drafting one, trading Fields; drafting one, keeping Fields, or keeping Fields without drafting one are the most 3 likely scenarios.

Compared to other teams, the Bears have added Moore and Sweat as "extra" pieces assuming each team has relatively the same amount of picks in the first 3 rounds that yield similar results. So it looks like Poles will get at least that again with 2x first rounders, maybe more. So if they go into 2024 with 4+5 "extra" blue chippers than the rest of the league, they will be a playoff team with some nice depth regardless of the QB position.

One scenario is drafting a QB while keeping Fields, then let the best QB win, if Fields wins, let the rookie sit and learn. If the rookie wins, you trade Fields. Another scenario is to bring in a FA to compete with Fields. Browning would be interesting because he has the pedigree. He just wasn't highly sought after, similar to Purdy.

He did come out of Folsom HS, I guess that is a QB factory. I wouldn't trade Fields for him though, or a 2nd rounder that we don't have.

Good point, maybe it could be a delay of game or unsportsmanlike penalty, or make a new penalty for the failed challenge as a 10-yard penalty? A runoff could be used against the offense, but not defense.

The Velus pick will always be a head scratcher for me. You draft players with the hope they get a 2nd contract from you because they played that good. Velus would be 29 on the first year of his 2nd contract. Just say he would sign another 4 year deal, to get 8 years out of the draft pick, he would be 32 on the final year of that 2nd deal. WR's peak at 26-27, and rarely do they stay productive beyond 30. So why are you drafting a guy knowing if you sign him to a 2nd contract, you would likely only get 1-2 more years out of him. That just seems like a really short-sighted pick. To put that into perspective, Allen Robinson is 30 this season for PIT, after his 29 yr old season with the Rams last year. Another weird fact, Robinson is the same age as Cooper Kupp (who came out at 24). Kupp has been slightly better than Velus has thru their first 2 seasons.

It is ridiculous that team's can't challenge a non-call like that (the DPI no calls). Each team should get one (Silver Bullet) in the last two minutes of a game that is not tied to their timeouts. Everything should be reviewable and challenge-able. They also need to add a few more mandatory camera views to use for reviews. I want IR and thermal views too lol (easier to see the ball in a pile or hand under ball).

A 9-3 team is playing at a 4-8 team and is only favored by 3? A 5-win disparity and only a 3 point line is pretty interesting. Vegas really thinks this game is going to be close. The Bears couldn't win with a +3 turnover margin and double the TOP, so if they want to win this game they more than likely are going to have to do it without that large of a turnover margin and TOP. DET ended up with more total yards, 8-11 on 3rd Downs, a 5.7 yards per play, so they were way more efficient. Montgomery can't average 6.3 yards a carry and they need to shutdown St. Brown. He always seems to burn the Bears. LaPorta was huge this week but only had 3-18 against the Bears. Of all the games to this point in the Flus era, this one has the most on the line for the Bears. It is either going to show that the last game was a fluke or it was real progress. It will be at home against a Division opponent (the Bears have yet to win against a division foe at home under Flus). They will be coming off the bye, and the team should be the healthiest it has been in any other week this season. Fields got two more weeks to heal that thumb. A lot is on the line for Fields, if he has a great game, it will boost his chances significantly, but if he has a stinker or multiple turnovers, it will probably be the game that decides his fate for 2024 and beyond. The Lions have had a multiple game Division lead for most of the season. With a loss and MIN or GB win, that lead is down to one game, with multiple division games left. I am going Bears 27-20 in an upset. The Bears held DET to 14 pts for 57 minutes, then allowed 17 in 3 minutes. I think they can do it again, but this time close them out.

I have seen a few scenarios where the Bears get MHJ AND Bowers, then sign Chase Young in free agency to fill 3 holes with some blue chippers.

That was some of the ugliest officiating I have seen in a game in a long time, and that says a lot considering how much we have seen the Beas get hosed over the years. Out of all the calls and non-calls, how do they not throw a flag on the MVS DPI. It was so blatant. On the Mahomes hit, I thought it was ticky tack, but if you look at the defender's foot, he steps out as he hits Mahomes, and a defender has cannot make a play when they are out of bounds. Then on the hail mary, Kelce got pushed in the back which prevented him from making a play on the ball. That was clearly DPI and not hand fighting.

It would be very similar to what both DET and JAX did last season. DET started 1-6, then went 8-2 the last 10. The Bears started 2-5 and would need to got 7-3 to match that. They are currently 2-3 and need 5 more wins. JAX started 2-6, and finished 7-2. The Bears also started 2-6, and are currently 2-2 in their first 4 and need to go 5-0 to match them as well. JAX had a 5-game win streak to end the season. It would hard to move on from that type of finish. That would mean both the offense and defense were cooking.

That GB win was unexpected against KC, and that win really puts them in a good position to make the playoffs. That also makes it much tougher for the Bears slim playoff hopes. They now need to still leapfrog MIN, LAR, SEA, TB, and NO/ATL. Before there were options, now all those teams need to lose games they are expected to win AND the Bears need to win out. In Week 14, we can expect SEA to lose to SF, and LAR to lose to BAL. That's a good start. Then TB plays ATL, so one of them will lose. That is 3 out of 4, and MIN plays LVR. We need to be big LVR fans this upcoming week. I was interested to see what game outcome combinations would need to occur for the Bears to make the playoffs at 9-8 and even 8-9. To make the playoffs at 9-8, the Bears need NO to beat LAR in Week 16. The Bears also need MIN to lose to DET/GB/DET. In Week 18, if ATL beats NO, they would be 10-7 and win the division. If NO wins both teams would be 9-8 and 6-6 in the conference, so CHI would beat both of them making that game irrelevant for the Bears at 9-8/7-5. For the Bears to make the playoffs at 8-9 (losing only to CLE), they would also need TB to beat NO in Week 17 (to prevent NO from getting to 9 wins) and SEA would need to lose to either TEN or PIT (to not get 9 wins). These are the unexpected outcomes. In the case of 8-9, they would prefer ATL wins the division and beats both TB (Wk14) and NO (Wk18). The grid below shows that outcome (green=win, red=loss, blue=win as underdog, yellow=deciding grid game, orange=lose as favorite): Thoughts? It is crazy that there is a realistic viable path to the playoffs at 8-9 as long as the loss is to CLE. There are really only 2 unexpected outcomes that need to occur, and they are not that far fetched (TB beats NO in Wk 17 and SEA loses to either TEN or PIT.) If everything else occurs as displayed, they get in at 8-9 with a 7-5 conf record which is the tie breaker that allows them to leapfrog the other 8-9 teams. 9-8 is much better, but they still need help from NO beating LAR in Week 16 and ensuring ATL beats NO in Week 18 (which they should). Any loss other than CLE ends the Bears playoff hopes. There are no scenarios where they get in at 8-9 with a 6-6 conference record.

Jets in full tank mode, releasing all one-year contract vets.

Does the age thing scare you about Penix? He is going to be 24 in May. That age thing matters when you are mostly playing against 18 and 19 year old kids. I just don't know how much. If he can play, he can play. I like his tape, and he is definitely one of the top 5 QBs.

Richard or Willy Penix would've been more appropriate right?

Another question is, does the new acquisition upgrade that position more than the other? So MHJ vs Mooney, or Bowers vs Tonyan. I don't think you really could go wrong with either, but Bowers provides something unique that defenses have to adjust to. On one of the telecasts, they were talking about how Georgia used Bowers to get the mismatches on almost every play where teams had to start doubling or bracketing him. He really is a seam buster.

So all the Tankathon Teams for Week 13 have played, so the only thing that will change slightly is the SoS. CAR and NE may come down to a SoS tiebreaker, but it looks like NE has the tougher schedule which will make CAR win the tie breaker. For CAR upcoming opponents, NO, ATL, GB, JAX, and TB are all playing for a playoff spot, so those are going to be some tough games to win. NE's only chance is Week 18 against the Jets. It might be Bill's last game. I think they win that one. ARZ looks much better with Murray but besides playing the Bears (in Chicago), they have SF, PHI, and SEA. So it looks like the Bears game is their only realistic shot at a win. It will only matter for draft status if they win and teams like WAS and NYG lose out. Any current 4 win team that loses out would jump ARZ in the draft. So they have a lot of incentive to lose out to be honest. They could drop from #3 to possibly #6 or #7 if they beat the Bears. So lose out, locked into #3, beat the Bears, draft #6 or #7. WAS is clearly tanking and their only chance at a win is Week 16 against Jets. Otherwise, they play LAR, SF, and DAL. They look so bad, their defense was gutted (lost Sweat and Young). I don't think they win another game. NYG is terrible too. They got PHI twice, LAR, NO, and GB. They probably don't win another game. NYJ have two winnable games, I think they beat WAS and lose to NE. However, they could easily lose out or win both. For TEN, they play MIA, HOUx2, SEA, and JAX. They really don't have any winnable games, but I think they eek one out anyway, Vrabel teams always do, I will say probably one vs HOU. The Bears are the wild card. They are in the tankathon, but clearly the best team. However, if I use the same projections as the other teams, they probably only win 2, against ARZ and ATL, and even then really just the ARZ one. So either 5 or 6 wins. Here are the draft/playoff outcomes based on the Bears final record: Bears 4-13 (lose out, #3 pick because ARZ would get their 4th win beating the Bears, NYG and WAS lose SoS with CHI) Bears 5-12 (finish 1-4, #6 pick) - most likely based on current teams rankings Bears 6-11 (finish 2-3, #8 pick) - most likely based on similar projections Bears 7-10 (finish 3-2, #12/13 pick) - most likely based on recent win/loss Bears 8-9 (finish 4-1, #17/18 pick or #7 seed) - most likely Bears thing to do, finish as the best non-playoff team Bears 9-8 (finish 5-0, #6 or #7 seed) - most likely based on recent play

Philly down big 35-13 with 7 mins left. They pulled Hurts for a concussion, I thought they were pulling him to give up, but I was wrong.