adam

Then they can't stop Sam Howell score on a QB Keeper. The Bears defense is back. That was wayyy too easy.

The exact thing that could not happen.

Honestly, I want 40+ to consider this a success. They need 2 more TDs. They need to stop them or hold them to a FG on the opening drive. I figure they will start using dig and stop routes to beat the zone. Mooney has been targeted 4 times, 0 catches. He does not look confident and it looks like he lost a step. I doubt they extend him unless he accepts WR3 money.

Last week Fields threw for 300, Herbert ran for 100, and Moore caught 100. Fields needs 111 in the 2nd half, Herbert needs 24 and Moore needs to not lose 37 for them to hit it in back to back games.

They have to close out games. We have been here before.

Just when you think the Bears have a good half last week, the entire team dominates the Commanders. Outside of a few misses to Mooney, Fields is doing everything right.

Fields cannot close out games. That may be a bigger issue than his issues against Zone. If Zone/Man was his only issue, that would show up in any quarter. Here are his 1st-3rd quarter stats: 303-491, 61.7%, 3647 yds, 22 TD, 12 INT, 7.4 Y/A 4th quarter stats: 127-220, 57.7%, 1326 yds, 9 TD, 14 INT, 6.0 Y/A Also, 18 of his career 26 INTs have come in his own zone. He only has 1 RZ INT, which is really good, but 18 picks in your own zone is killer. That is basically 18 scoring opportunities for the opposing team without the need to gain a yard. For some reason his pucker factor is too high in his own zone and in the 4th quarter. Basically when there is pressure on him to do something, he fails.

and Poles didn't draft Fields. The only way to reset this with the proper timeline, same President, GM, HC, OC, and QB is to draft Williams, get a new OC and HC with Poles and Warren. That would be the first time all of those have been aligned since the Angelo/Lovie/Grossman era.

DVOA for this game: WAS 24th 21st/18th CHI 31st 28th/31st Weighted scoring has Commanders by 4 pts, which is not that much considering they get 3 for being at home. So the Bears losing and covering the +6.5 spread seems like the most likely outcome.

Fun Fact: I went to high school with Pat, I was a year older than him. I would be good with it. Like I said before, it can't get worse. If you just sent the players to the game on their own, let the players call their own game, it would probably be better than what we have seen.

It couldn't be any worse. Technically we would want a defensive guy to come in for Flus as someone would need to call the plays. Leslie Frazier or Singletary come to mind.

I like Ruiz, another option is the trade market. The draft is going to be super interesting. I think no matter what happens with Fields, if the Bears get the #1 pick, it has to be Williams. You can't chance another Mahomes situation. There is a chance that the Bears actually keep Fields and draft Williams. The longest wild card that no one is talking about lately is Bagent. Super long shot, but look at Purdy. My best guess: 1. If #1 pick Option A - Draft Williams, trade Fields (most likely if #1 pick) Option B - Trade pick for splendor, keep Fields (this would be the Mahomes scenario) They are either drafting Williams or trading the pick. I don't see a scenario where they would keep the #1 and not draft a QB. 2. If not the #1 pick Option A - Draft BPA (WR, OT, DL), keep Fields (most likely if they are not in the top 3). Option B - Trade top pick for splendor, keep Fields (this would be kicking the can down the road to 2025, if you add an extra 2025 1st). Option C - Trade both 1st rounders and Fields to move up for Williams I don't really see any other scenario unless the Bears get the #2 pick and consider a QB other than Williams. However, for QBs, Williams is the only one I would replace Fields with, otherwise I would give him WR and a new DLineman. 3. The Nuclear Poles Smartest Guy in the Room Draft (if not in the top 3) Option N - If he misses on Williams and Harrison, he trades the first of the two 1st's for an extra 2025 1st (would then have 2x 1st's and 2x 2nd's in 2025), then drafts BPA for first pick (Edge, DL, OL), but for the later 1st round pick, he takes a developmental QB, Sanders, Penix, etc.

Washington's defense is predicated on pressure, and when they don't get it, they get burnt. They are a top 5 passing defense on passes under 25 yards and 30th over 25 yards. 5 of 6 passing TDs are on passes 30 yards or more.

I would be shocked if the Bears and Panthers both played their way out of the top 3, but if they did, a lot went right. If that much goes right, do the Bears keep their current coaching staff? The Bears have $111M in cap space for 2024 and if they release Whitehair, that will free up even more. I would assume they go for a free agent Center if they don't like Whitehair there. Nate Davis is completely omitted from that projection, and based on his dead money, he and Jenkins are the Guards for 2024. I think the Bears bring in a top Center, top Edge, and top DT in FA. Depending on what they do with Jackson, they may also get a new FS, Jackson has a $18M cap hit. Guys that won't be back on offense: Patrick, Whitehair, Tonyan, and Homer. Guys that won't be back on defense: Green, Ngakoue, Robinson, and Jones. I am on the fence on Jackson, but the cap hit makes me think they will part ways with him at 30. He has never been the same guy from 2018. I really think that injury changed him and he just never recovered. Edge and 3T are such huge needs, you can't wait until the draft, and with Dexter and Pickens already drafted, they will probably lean Edge for the draft. If they trust Braxton Jones at LT, then Center is the only need spot on the O-Line. As critical of a position as it is, I think they have to address it in FA. They can still double down on G/C in the draft. If Fields is the guy, he will be in for a massive pay day, so the team they have in 2024 won't look like the team in 2025 because you will have to cut even more fat to squeeze in $40-50M per year for Fields. I don't know if Poles can do that, and if he can't win with Fields on his rookie deal, he is definitely not building a winning roster with Fields making $40M a year. That's why I think no matter how well Fields plays, he will be traded.

Where are they getting that info? Wright has a 65.9 and Jones has a 63.2 rating. Wright is 39th and Jones is 47th for OTs. Wright is 15th in Pass Blocking but that's it.

Jenkins and Brisker questionable. It was obvious that Brisker was dealing with something, unfortunately a hammy.

It can't get worse than with Flus right now. Getsy can be HC and OC, he is already calling plays on offense, not hard for him to manage timeouts. Then on defense, you elevate one of the coaches (Borgonzi, Curtis, or Hoke) to DC. They have to have a contingency plan in the event that Flus gets sick or gets COVID. Someone else has to know how to call plays on defense. Bringing Lovie back would definitely be interesting but normally they just promote from within after an in-season firing.

Misery loves company, if you just look around the league, all but 5-6 teams have problems. The Bears just have 99 of them. Honestly, of all the issues this team could have, the biggest one for me is the lack of pass rush from the front 4. Hoge and Jahns had Josh Lucas on, he used to work for the Bears, and is very insightful. He noted that not one player on the DL has won a rep that has resulted in a sack, meaning Robinson beats the RT and goes in for a clean sack. They have zero of those in 4 games, 16 quarters. This dates back to last season, the Flus system is predicated on having an elite 3T, if you don't everything else seems to fail. I still can't believe they thought Green and Robinson were better options than Gipson and Lewis. It is clear they were wrong.

Oh, I thought it was worse as he went to IR quick. It was not like a later in the week thing after some evaluation. Normally those are worse than others where they think it might only be 2-3 weeks, they don't put him on IR. IR is at least 4 weeks.

The deadline this year is going to be interesting. Do the Bears consider moving Mooney, Johnson, Jackson, Whitehair, Jones, or any other vet signed for more than a year? For Mooney and Johnson, do they really want to sign back with this team after the last two years? Buffalo just lost their starting CB White, maybe they get desperate for CB help and fork over a higher pick for Johnson. What is he worth right now as a rental? A 4th or 5th? I would rather extend them but who knows what the plan is.

That would be amazing to be honest. Get a few wins but still get the top 2 picks.

Carolina's next 3 weeks are @DET, @MIA, then their bye (which is super early). So they will go into their bye 0-6. After their bye, things lighten up with HOU, IND, and @CHI. I figure they will win at least one of those but could come into the game with the Bears 0-8 or 1-7. The Bears get WSH (2-2), MIN (1-3), then LVR (1-3) before @LAC (2-2) and NO (2-2) before the CAR game. Just based on probability, the Bears will win at least one of those before the CAR game and probably 2 to go into that game at 2-7. For draft positioning, you want the 1st pick at all costs, so the team with the better record needs to win the CAR/CHI game to push the lower team down even further. Here is my tankathon schedule grid. The next two weeks will have 4 of the bottom 10 teams get wins. NYJ@DEN and CIN@ARI this week and MIN@CHI and NE@LV in Week 6. One great projection for the Bears is Carolina only plays 1 game against one of the bottom 10 teams all year, the Bears. LV plays 6 of 10 and CHI and MIN play 5 each.

Looking around the league, there are some bad teams out there, and the Bears are not the only ones underachieving. Did anyone see the Giants last night? The Bears are 0-4, should be at least 1-3, but probably projected to be 2-2 at this point. Obviously we have watched this team lose in every conceivable way. Bengals are 1-3 and just lost to the Titans 24-3. Burrow looks like a shell of his former self. Chase has 0 TDs. Just very odd considering they still have Chase, Higgins, Boyd, and Mixon as their top skill players. Patriots are 1-3 and their only win was a 15-10 barn burner against a Wilson-led Jets team. Mac Jones had looked like crap, their leading receiver is Hunter Henry and their RBBC with Stevenson and Elliott doesn't seem to be working. People almost forget they have Gesicki, JuJu, and DeVante Parker as those guys are targeted only a few times per game. Giants are 1-3 and have looked like the worst team in the league being outscored 94-15 in 3 losses and their only win was a 3-pt win against ARZ. They started the season going 6 quarters without a TD, and now have went 5 more quarters without one. Jones was sacked 10 times on MNF. Vikings are 1-3 and even though people expected them to come back down to earth after exceeding expectations last year, I don't think they expected them to be 1-3 and their only win against a winless Panthers team. For me, the two biggest surprises are the Bengals and Giants. I did not expect them both to look this bad and be that close to 0-4.

It is so hard to separate cart from horse here. Is Getsy only calling plays he knows Fields can run, or is comfortable with? When he calls zone beaters, Fields doesn't throw the ball, like he is playing a 2D video game instead of 3D. or is Getsy just completely terrible, making Fields look worse? I am sure it is a little bit of both.

Absolutely, you can't hit a HR if you don't swing. However, what is "right" at the top besides Wright? Wright is the only player playing up to his draft slot, and Moore is the only vet acquisition doing anything besides Billings. So for guys Poles added, that's it. Brisker looks terrible (playing hurt?), Dexter and Stevenson are playing ok, Pickens has been bad, and Velus is still on the roster. Ngakoue, Walker, and Green are playing really bad, and Edmunds and Edwards just look out of place. Everyone can say it's all on the coaching, but the coaches don't miss the tackles (or sacks), miss assignment, blow coverages. I rewatched the game against Denver, and it really is hard to understand what Brisker is doing half the time. He looks best just blindly rushing a gap. When he has to work in space, he does not look good. The Bears need more impact players and from the looks of it, Moore may be the only guy on the roster that is (besides when Fields runs). That is indicative of the 0-4 start.