adam

Tonyan too?

I thought so too, he felt like a highlight reel. However, if you just look at his stats, you would not think that at all. Here are some wild numbers from Vick: 1. Most passing yards in a season: 3303 1a. 3K yard passing seasons: 2 (out of 13) 1b. 300 yd passing games: 13 (of 115 starts) 2. Most TD passes in a season: 21 2a. 20+ Passing TD seasons: 2 (out of 13) 3. Highest QB Rating in a season: 100.2 (only season over 95.0) 4. Most total TDs in a season: 30 5. Most games started in one season for PHI: 13 6a. Playoff games started in PHI: 1 7. MVPs: 0 8. Record with PHI: 20-20 9. # of 1K rushing seasons: 1 9a. Most rushing yards in a season: 1039 9b. # of 100 yd rushing games: 10 (out of 115 starts) 10. Fumbles: 98 (in 143 games) 11. #1 Pick was traded by SD to ATL. SD selected some guy named LaDainian Tomlinson at #5. 11a. LT made the AP Team 6 times and was MVP in 2006. Vick finished 2nd in MVP voting in 2004. Let me know what you think of some of those. I was surprised at how low most of them were.

^^^^^^^^^^^ This x1000000 ^^^^^^^^^ and if Fields starts developing a quick game, it's really over for the league. He would turn into Lamar's MVP Year Clone for the rest of the year scoring 3-4 TDs a game, every game.

So that is challenging if you are blitzing and sending 5. If they bracket DJ, that's 7, now you only have 4 defenders to cover Mooney, Kmet, Scott, and Foreman out of the backfield. That will create a lot of space and make for some easier throws over the middle for Fields. One missed tackle, and it's a home run.

Interestingly enough, since Vick played sparingly in his first 3 seasons, and Fields has 30 starts and counting. Fields still has some work to do on his yards per game, but comp%, TD%, Y/A are really solid. 1. Fields (30 GS) 445-740, 60.1%, 5255 yds, 35 TD, 26 INT, 7.1 Y/A, 82.9 Rating, 271-1754 yds, 11 TD (Total: 7009 yds, 46 TD) 2. Vick (21 GS) 303-634, 52.2%, 4306 yds, 22 TD, 14 INT, 6.8 Y/A, 76.3 Rating, 184-1321 yds, 10 TD (Total: 5627 yds, 32 TD) 3. Cunningham (21 GS) 368-696, 52.9%, 4725 yds, 32 TD, 27 INT, 6.8 Y/A, 73.6 Rating, 171-1250 yds, 8 TD (Total: 5975 yds, 40 TD) Kinda wild how close Vick and Cunningham were, both with 21 starts thru 3 seasons.

Let me look him up.

I used https://stathead.com/ it is an extension of Pro Football Reference. It is by subscription for some of the data. It's $60 a year for full access or $8 a month. Some may only want to use it during the season, so pay for 4-5 months for $32-$40 instead of the $60.

QBs in their first 3 seasons, over 5K passing yards, 35 TDs, less than 30 INTs, rating over 80, closest comps to Fields: Brady (30 GS) 638-1017, 62.7%, 6613 yds, 46 TD, 26 INT, 6.5 Y/A, 85.9 Rating, 78-153 yds, 1 TD (Total: 6768 yds, 47 TD) Fields (30 GS) 445-740, 60.1%, 5255 yds, 35 TD, 26 INT, 7.1 Y/A, 82.9 Rating, 271-1754 yds, 11 TD (Total: 7009 yds, 46 TD) McNabb (32 GS) 447-1062, 57.9%, 6598 yds, 46 TD, 25 INT, 6.2 Y/A, 80.9 Rating, 168-1111 yds, 8 TD (Total: 7708 tds, 54 TD) The Brady passing comp is crazy, but it is there, Fields just has rushing attempts vs passing attempts. Now he just needs the volume and sample size to grow. If I up the rushing yards to 1K it's McNabb then the next two: Jalen Hurts (34 GS) 392-1040, 62.3%, 7906 yds, 44 TD, 19 INT, 7.6 Y/A, 92.2 Rating, 367-1898 yds, 26 TD (9804 yds, 70 TD) Lamar Jackson (37 GS) 606-947, 64.0%, 7085 yds, 68 TD, 18 INT, 7.5 Y/A, 102.6 Rating, 482-2906 yds, 19 TD (9991 yds, 87 TD) Obviously a few thing stand out. Jackson's passing TDs are insane, Hurts rushing TDs are crazy, and Jackson's rushing yards. However, even with all the crappy games under Nagy, and last year, if Fields has a solid 7 games, he has a chance to have the same amount of passing yards as Jackson after 37 starts and would be very close to Hurts' passing TDs and rushing yards. This would almost seem unimaginable before the season started.

Doing Jordan Love comps is hilarious: Under 10 starts thru Year 4 w/ 200 attempts, 10 TDs, and less than 10 INTs, he best comps to the following QBs: Jeff Driskel 202-345, 58.6%, 2120 yds, 13 TD, 8 INT, 6.1 Y/A, 79.4 Rating Jordan Love 140-245, 57.1%, 1689 yds, 11 TD, 9 INT, 6.9 Y/A, 78.1 Rating Brandon Allen 149-263, 56.7%, 1611 yds, 10 TD, 6 INT, 6.1 Y/A, 78.0 Rating Love has played almost identical to Brandon Allen into his 4th year in the NFL. The biggest difference is Allen had 1/3 fewer INTs. Here are the QBs just above and below that group: Mason Rudolph Brock Osweiler ------------ Driskel, Love, Allen ------------ Matt McGloin Zach Mettenberger So if Love improves, he can move into Osweiler and Rudolph territory. If he gets worse, he would drop into McGloin/Mettenberger range. GB has to know this, right?

Foreman is a good pass blocker. They can always use Blasingame for that and Lewis is a 6th OL when he is in there. I think Foreman will have a nice game, he always seems to when he comes in for these types of situations. That first Bears offensive drive will be huge. If they can score a TD, it will put MIN on their heels.

Thanks, that's how I was looking at it in my brain. Easier to see in a table. Things get really interesting on the extremes. Within the picks variable, there are 2 other variables, Bears and Panthers. #1 and #2 doesn't seem realistic anymore. However, something like #1 and #11 do, or #2 and #8. I guess I will have to break down each draft pick combo with CAR getting 1-3, and Bears getting 6-12 and figure out the likelihood of each. I will do that after this weekend as the Bears outcome will sway things due to them playing MIN. CAR are 13.5 underdogs to MIA and it probably should be more. They should be 0-6 in 2 days.

True true. Good points. I didn't know he has fallen off that much. However, DRob has been brutal this season, like below a replacement level player. I would almost rather see Sanborn or Sewell brought in as situational pass rushers, they have the speed and strength to do it on a very part-time basis. Something needs to be done to get the pass rush going as DRob and Green have really struggled.

I honestly thought Wilson was doing terrible based on the last few weeks, however, he has 12 TDs and 4 INTs, a 99.0 QB Rating, and a 65.9 Comp% on the season. All values better than Fields (though he has played 1 more game so TDs are not really a fair comp). Nonetheless, if you only watched Wilson the last two weeks, you would think he is a bottom 5 QB, but due to a few good games earlier in the season, he is still up there for TDs, QB Rating, INTs, and Comp% somehow. It also feels like he has taken a billion sacks, yet only has 19 thru 6 games, and Fields has 20 thru 5, so go figure.

Thru 5 weeks, there is one QB in the NFL with 1,000+ yards passing, 10+ Passing TDs, 150+ yards rushing, and 1+ Rushing TD.

Denver released Frank Clark. Make it happen Poles!

and I had him as a waiver claim and didn't change my waiver order, so i ended up with the ARZ backup and not him. I am off my game this year.

Now only 7 teams with 1 win or less. The only game with 2 of these teams against each other in the next 4 weeks is this week, MIN at CHI. Week 12 and 16 will be big weeks as 2 teams each of those weeks will come away with another win. The Bears play in both of those weeks. The Bears have 4 games out of their next 12 against the bottom 7 teams. MIN has 3, 2 against the Bears. The Bears also have 3 of these games at home. Carolina has a brutal schedule, the only relief is CHI in Week 10 but on the road. They have a great chance to go 0-17. They may be able to squeak one out against HOU or IND at home after the bye, but that's it. Maybe ATL in Week 15? 0-17 or 1-16 max. #1 pick most likely. Denver looks terrible, all signs point to a huge fire sale before the deadline. They may not win another game. Maybe NE in Week 16 to go 2-15. Most likely pick #1 or #2. The Bears are gonna win some games. Will probably end up with 6-7 wins just based on SoS alone. If Fields continues to play well and the secondary gets healthy, they may squeeze out 1 or 2 more wins and end up drafting in the teens. 6-11 to 8-9 likely. Minnesota will probably win 3-4 more, but if they lose to the Bears on Sunday, they will more than likely be 1-6 heading into GB in Week 8. Likely 4-13. Pick 3-5. NE looks as bad as Denver, the worst two losses in Belichick era the last two weeks. At most I see them winning 4 games (4-13). Pick 3-5. The Giants are in the DEN / NE category without Barkley. However, if they get him back, they can probably eek out 2-3 more wins, but 3-5 wins seems like their window. Likely 5-12. Pick 4-7. Arizona may not win another game, or if they do, it will be in the next few weeks as their last month is SF, at CHI, at PHI, and SEA. They look like a 2-3 win team max and will probably be in the top 3 in the draft. Pick #1-#3. Just the way the teams are playing right now, I believe the draft order would be CAR, DEN, ARI (due to Sos), NE, MIN, NYG with the Bears out of the top 10. I think the Bears will surpass the Raiders, Texans, Commanders, Jets, and be mixed in with the Packers, Titans and Browns.

For a team with a defensive coach, playing the Cover-2, the Bears are allowing the 7th most explosive plays (33) and the 2nd most explosive passing plays (21). This may be due to injury or lack of pass rush, or both, but ultimately they are allowing over 6 explosive plays per game. That is almost one per drive. That number needs to be cut in half.

Another interesting nugget, Jordan Love has been the benefactor of 5 DPI calls for a whopping 163 yards. The next closest QB is Lawrence at 5-112, then Howell for 5-83. In comparison, Fields only has 1-10 yds. Insane how bad the refs are against the Bears. No DPI calls on the other team (Mooney), and a lot missed roughing the passer calls on Fields.

On a side note, Minnesota was something like 11-1 in one score games last year (will have to check that), and this year, all their games have been decided by 8 pts or less, and they are 1-4 with their only win coming against Carolina where they were losing by 6 and got a defensive TD and Jefferson TD to win it. In that win Jefferson had both offensive TDs (2). Jefferson makes up over a 1/3 of their passing yards and a 1/4 of their passing TDs. So that is a huge chunk of the offense from a surefire HoFer (and maybe a top 5 WR of all-time). Addison and Osborn are 3 to 4 tiers lower than him. So the biggest threat is Hockenson. The Bears need to bracket him and force Cousins to go somewhere else. I feel pretty good about this game, and if the Bears can't beat the Vikings without Jefferson, then the last win was more of a fluke than anything. Minnesota is 0-4 when they allow 20 or more pts, and 1-0 when then hold a team to under 20. Their offense has scored at least 17 in every game, but never more than 28. To me, that range should be lowered without Jefferson, to something like 13-24. So 17 feels about right for Minnesota. The Bears should score at least 24 as the offense is humming right now. So 27-17 feels good. Mattison has been ok, if not just meh as an RB. His long is 17 yards, which is the longest rush for the team. The Bears have 3 players with runs of 20+. Weather looks like it is going to be a huge factor. Mid 50s with rain and winds between 15-25 mph. So long FGs will not be possible. Foreman is going to get a lot of touches.

Fields used to have a bunch of these games, now his worst games are not as terrible as they used to be. That tells me his floor is rising, which is promising. Here are the 10 worst QBR games this season, so far. 10 Worst Games (QBR) Mac Jones - 7.0 Jordan Love - 7.8 Aidan O'Connell - 8.3 Daniel Jones - 8.6 Desmond Ridder - 9.2 Joshua Dobbs - 9.4 Russell Wilson - 10.1 Lamar Jackson - 12.3 Jordan Love - 13.0 Ryan Tannehill - 13.3 Fields has 3 games between the 23rd and 32nd worst (ironically, his first 3 games), but no longer any in the bottom 20. Funny to see Jordan Love on their twice, and the difference for him compared to Fields is his last two games have been the terrible ones. Normally it is understandable that an offense or QB struggles in the first few weeks, due to the lack of game reps from the preseason. In Fields' 3 bad games, he had 3 TDs and 4 INTs. In Love's 2 terrible games, he has 1 TD and 5 INT. So you can see the floor difference there too. If you want to talk ceiling, they both have 2 games over 70 QBR, Fields had 8 TD and 1 INT in those 2 games, and Love had 6 TD and 0 INT. So their ceilings are pretty comparable at this time. The Bears seemed to have dodged two bullets, one, by not selecting Mac Jones. The other, not trading for Wussell Rilson, he has been so bad, I purposely spelled his name wrong. If he didn't have garbage time stats, he would have no stats. He had like 39 yards passing until the last drive of the game, and he also got a TD. Before that drive, he had the lowest QBR game in the last few years.

Oh man, I totally forgot about him (I was trying to forget him). I was adding to @BearFan PHX comment about the O-Line improvement that the entire offense is better and it is tangible.

There are 3 independent variables, how Fields performs, how Williams performs, and if the Bears get the #1 pick or not. Now obviously there are additional ones like where their first pick is if not 1st, and where the 2nd first ends up. However, it seems to be 8 basic combinations of outcomes, so I tried to attach my best guess to what the Bears would do with the attached image. Williams is drafted if he is the consensus #1 by a long shot and the Bears have the #1 pick, regardless of what Fields does. I think the Bears would attempt to trade for Williams even if they don't have the #1 if the team with the 1st pick is willing to trade (doubtful). Fields is traded in half the outcomes, in the other half, he is only kept long-term in 2 of them, and in the other 2, the Bears draft another QB high (#1 pick not available), keep Fields for one more year, then more than likely move on. So generically, 50% chance that Fields is traded, 25% chance he is retained long-term, and 25% he is kept only as a bridge QB. The scary ones are if Fields struggles and Williams looks shaky and is not the consensus. Then it becomes a Mahomes/Watson/Trubisky draft all over again.

This team's offense was dead last in every category last year. Considering the only new players are Moore, Wright, and Davis, this jump is pretty impressive thru 5 weeks: Offense Yards - 13th Passing Yds - 16th TD% - 1st Y/C - 4th Sack% - 30th (one thing that will need to improve) Rushing Yds - 8th Rushing Y/A - 4th Also note, Fields had only 99 yards passing against KC. so that kills the averages and overall numbers. If he had a normal game around 210 yards or something like that, the Bears offense would be top 10 in yards, and top 12 in Passing yards. On a per game basis, without the KC game, the Bears passing offense goes from 228 to 261 per game which is good for 9th (ahead of SF, JAX, DET, and PHI).

LMAO you are correct. The link I used directed me to the 2022 stats (huge difference). They blitz the most, 56.5% of the time, but they are 21st in pressure% at 21.4%. So that is not a very efficient. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/opp.htm