adam

It seems like GB is about to hit the NFL purgatory, not good enough for the playoffs and not bad enough for a top 10 pick. They had 3 straight seasons with 13 wins where Rodgers won the league MVP twice before dropping to 8-9 with Rodgers. Now Love is supposed to come in at play at that level in his first full year as starter? After Watson, the top WRs and TEs are Doubs and Deguara? Double, bracket, or shade Watson and stop the run, the Packers will go nowhere. Their starting D-Line (3 players) combined for 5.5 sacks last year. Their 2 leading OLBs? 8.5 and 6.0. Not that scary. They didn't resign Amos (shocking), but he still may resign. If he doesn't, their secondary will be worse than last year. So an 8 win team with a unproven QB, lost a HoFer at QB and at least one quality starter on defense. It seems like 8 wins would be a huge success for the Packers. I figure 7 wins is probably the target. This feels like a year where all the teams will be within 2-3 wins of each other 10-7, 9-8, 8-9, 7-10, or something like that.

Congrats, I was hoping for ATL in ATL as I am in Alabama. So Nashville and Atlanta are close for me. No luck this year for me. I could even do Jacksonville.

Looking at it by opposing QB makes the schedule seem a little lighter: Week 1 - SUN, SEP 10.............. PACKERS.....................Jordan Love - W Week 2 - Sun, Sep 17............... at Tampa Bay.............Kyle Trask/Baker Mayfield - W Week 3 - Sun, Sep 24.............. at Kansas City ...........Patrick Mahomes - L Week 4 - SUN, OCT 1................ BRONCOS....................Russell Wilson - L Week 5 - Thu, Oct 5................. at Washington...........Sam Howell in Prime Time - W Week 6 - SUN, OCT 15 .............VIKINGS .....................Kirk Cousins - W Week 7 - SUN, OCT 22 ............. RAIDERS .....................Jimmy G - L Week 8 - Sun, Oct 29 .............. at LA Chargers..........Justin Herbert in Prime Time - L Week 9 - Sun, Nov 5 ................ at New Orleans..........Derek Carr - L Week 10 - THU, NOV 9 ............... PANTHERS..................Andy Dalton in Prime Time - W Week 11 - Sun, Nov 19 .............. at Detroit ...................Jared Goff - L Week 12 - Mon, Nov 27.............. at Minnesota .............Kirk Cousins in Prime Time - W Week 13 - Bye Week Week 14 - SUN, DEC 10 ............. LIONS..........................Jared Goff - W Week 15 - TBD............................ at Cleveland...............Deshaun Massageson - L Week 16 - SUN, DEC 24.............CARDINALS................Kyler Murray - W Week 17 - SUN, DEC 31 ............. FALCONS.....................Desmond Ridder - W Week 18 - TBD............................ at Green Bay..............Jordan Love - L I count 9 wins and it could easily be 2-3 more from these games: (DEN, LVR, NO, DET, CLE, and GB).

Week 1 - SUN, SEP 10.............. PACKERS.....................3:25PM .... FOX Week 2 - Sun, Sep 17............... at Tampa Bay.............Noon ........ FOX Week 3 - Sun, Sep 24.............. at Kansas City ...........3:25pm .... FOX Week 4 - SUN, OCT 1................ BRONCOS....................NOON.......CBS Week 5 - Thu, Oct 5................. at Washington...........7:15pm.....PRIME Week 6 - SUN, OCT 15 .............VIKINGS .....................NOON....... FOX Week 7 - SUN, OCT 22 ............. RAIDERS .....................NOON....... FOX Week 8 - Sun, Oct 29 .............. at LA Chargers..........7:20pm ....NBC Week 9 - Sun, Nov 5 ................ at New Orleans..........NOON.......CBS Week 10 - THU, NOV 9 ............... PANTHERS..................7:15PM.....PRIME Week 11 - Sun, Nov 19 .............. at Detroit ...................Noon ........ FOX Week 12 - Mon, Nov 27.............. at Minnesota .............7:15pm.....ESPN Week 13 - Bye Week Week 14 - SUN, DEC 10 ............. LIONS..........................NOON....... FOX Week 15 - TBD............................ at Cleveland...............TBD...........TBD Week 16 - SUN, DEC 24.............CARDINALS................3:25PM .... FOX Week 17 - SUN, DEC 31 ............. FALCONS.....................NOON.......CBS Week 18 - TBD............................ at Green Bay..............TBD...........TBD I like the late bye week and it comes after a MNF game which would've been a short week. Two TNF games though, which sucks. No more than back to back away games. After the bye looks very favorable. Honestly, outside of KC as the 2nd of two road games, the schedule seems pretty favorable. The only other challenging weeks will be going from home to LA to NO, then back to home on TNF. A quick look feels like 9 wins would be the target, splitting the division games, then getting 6 others (TB, WAS, CAR, CLE, ARZ, ATL), with other up for grab games (DEN (at home), LVR (at home), NO). LAC and KC being guaranteed losses plus losing 3 in the division for 5 losses. What do you think? No PHI, SF, CIN, or BUF, which feels like 4 of the top 5 teams in the league outside of KC.

I was thinking Herbert and Johnson would be the leading duo and Foreman is now more luxury than anything. I don't think the Bears were expecting to get Johnson when they signed Foreman and Homer. Homer is still a star special teamer, and 3rd Down back. So if anyone is the odd man out, it seems like it would be Foreman.

As much as we want Fields to break NFL passing records, I don't think he will ever get to that point. As a passer, I think his ceiling is more top 10 than top 5. As a runner, #1, so as a QB top 5 for sure, but that takes into account his legs.

My thought process is plugging Moore's career average stats in at the top, then bumping every else down, so his career averages 77-1105-6 would go on top and the guys at the bottom would drop off (ISM, Webster, Harry, Pringle). When you add a full year of Mooney (70-850-4), Claypool (65-800-5), and Kmet (55-575-5) back into those numbers, that is already 3330 yards and 20 TDs. Then you add WR4-6, TE2, and RB1-3 and you easily have 3800 yds and 26 TDs. This does not take into account any player being better than their career averages. So 3800 passing yards, 26 TDs, 10 INTs, 800 rushing yards, 5 TDs seems like a very reasonable target. My guess is he will be plus or minus 10% of those value next year (so as low as 3400, 23 TDs and as high as 4200 yds and 30 TDs).

That is an interesting list. Surprised to see teams like Buffalo and Detroit so low, but I guess if you take out the #1 WR for every team, what does it look like? The Bears would have the same WR corps as last year.

Looks like he is still recovering from injury. This was the rookie minicamp and technically optional for him. So we will see.

This is from his Houston player page, so I would assume it is legit, see bold: As a Senior (2022) First-Team All-American Athletic Conference Dave Campbell's Texas Football First-Team All-Texas Pro Football Focus (PFF) All-American Athletic Conference Appeared in all 13 games alongside seven starts on defensive line (543 snaps played) Tied for national lead in forced fumbles (5) Fourth in The American in sacks (8.0) Nation's top pass rush grade among edge defenders (93.1) per PFF Second-highest graded edge defender overall (91.4) by PFF Fourth in The American with 13.5 tackles for loss Capped season with sacks in five straight games Seven tackles for loss in his final five games Became 17th Cougar all-time with two-or-more forced fumbles in a game, doing so against Rice (Sept. 24)

PFF Grades are always ridiculous for OLine, and most of the defense. Once there are not enough tangible stats to correlate with, their grades go out the window. I only use them when it supports my position

I think we go after one next year. They drafted Kramer last year, and still have Whitehair and Patrick on the roster. If they were planning to cut one of them, then yeah, add one, but the more I thought about it, you can only have so many guys at one position and a rookie could easily flame out. At least they know what they have in Whitehair and Patrick.

More competition, can't complain.

Mustipher played 98.7% of the snaps last year (insane to me). Of all the FA's still available, no one played more snaps than Mustipher last year. I know there was a lot of injuries, but it is hard to believe that guy is 330 lbs, he was getting run over by CBs.

Another TE added to the mix. May push for that TE3 slot.

With CAR's first rounder in 2024 and second rounder in 2025, the Bears are set for the next two years to bring in 4 top starting caliber players. I do like that about Poles. Pace was always trading up, then saying you have to go up and get your guy. His guys were Trubisky, Shaheen, etc.

To me, some of the signings, trades, and draft picks kind of tell you what they think about some of the younger players: Wright > Borom Moore, Scott > Velus Foreman, Johnson, Homer > Ebner They basically bumped Ebner off the team. Velus has been bumped down to the edge of the roster. If he can't handle punts, but someone like Pettis can, Velus is a possible 53-man roster cut. Borom is not leaving, but was dropped to a swing tackle after starting several games.

What is fairly interesting is usually the last 2-3 spots on the 53-man are pretty fluid and there will be at least that many new players on the opening day 53 compared to today. So if you had to replace 3 players with say league average vets at their positions, who would it be?

Street Free Agent and College Free Agent. CFA is basically UDFA. I used the format from here: https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/CHI

TE for sure, I could see DHC brought back for safety, maybe another vet Edge. I hope they upgrade at CB, Vildor is a huge liability.

Adding an asterisks to all the players that are under contract in 2024: Key Notes: TE has zero players signed beyond 2023. I assume Kmet gets done soon. WR2 and WR3 are both open for business in 2024 unless one or both of Mooney/Claypool sign The entire projected starting OLine is signed thru at least 2024. If you project Dexter and Pickens into the starting lineup, the only starting spots not signed in 2024 are CB (Johnson) and Edge on defense. So in total, only 5 starting spots not signed for 2024 (TE, WR2, WR3, Edge, CB) The Bears have 2 2024 1st rounders, so if they lock up Kmet and one of the WRs, it looks like Edge, WR, and CB will be priorities next offseason The Bears still have the next wave of free agency to upgrade and fill holes with vets.

Cut and Paste fail, pasted right over him, he definitely bumps Jones down. Still feels like we need an upgrade, I don't know if Poles is sold on Vildor either.

Here is what I got after the draft w/o UDFAs. I still feel like the Bears could use an upgrade at TE (Allen), OL (Leatherwood/Eiselen), LB (Weatherford), and DB (Vildor or at Safety). All the colored cells are the available slots, blue being filled, and red being filled but in need of upgrade. It looks like Poles raised the floor considerably across the board. The DL may have 6 new players from last year (out of 9), while the LB corps will have 4 new out of 6. That is 10 new players in the front 7. The worst players on offense are Allen and Leatherwood. On defense, it's Vildor or Hicks. Travis Ebner is the odd man out in the RB room. With Blasingame, there is only room for 4 backs. The RB room will have 3/5 new faces. So DL, LB, and RB are the position groups with the biggest turn over. If the Bears want to add a veteran Edge, who do you drop from the DL group? Bell to the PS?

Rodgers couldn't win in GB, in the NFC, which has been weaker for several years. Now he has to face BUF, MIA, and NE for 6 games, and will have to get thru BUF, CIN, KC, LAC, BAL, MIA, JAX, and PIT in the AFC playoffs. Good luck. GB is going to be interesting. There is a lot of pressure on Love. GB actually drafted some skill position players early, but drafted 2 TEs in the first 3 rounds? Bold strategy Cotton! Comparing the Bears and Packer skill position players, outside of the RB room, which may be closer depending on how Johnson looks, the Bears seem to have the edge in every position group. Skill Position Players: Fields | Herbert, Johnson (R), Foreman | Moore, Mooney, Claypool, Scott (R), Jones | Kmet, Tonyan Love | Jones, Dillon | Watson, Reed (R), Doubs, Wicks (R) | Musgrave (R), Kraft (R)

Yeah I forgot about Kramer. Seems like Edge and TE are left.