adam

Man Cleveland and NYJ are the most dysfunctional franchises. I think we are finally out of that rut. No one wants to go there and when they get a new Head Coach, other coaches want to leave.

I wanted to see how familiar the Bears non-Divisional opponents would be for Caleb and Coach Johnson. I will have to also cross reference Coach Allen as well. However, either the Bears played the opponent in 2025, Williams played them in 2024, or Johnson coached against them in 2023 or 2024, except for NYJ and MIA. As the team improves, especially the consistency on offense, having some previous experience against the defenses should help. This makes me feel a little better about the 2026 season. Atlanta Falcons - Johnson coached against in 2023 Buffalo Bills - Johnson coached against in 2024 New England Patriots - Williams played in 2024 Jacksonville Jaguars - Williams played in 2024, Johnson coached against in 2024 Carolina Panthers - Williams played in 2024, Johnson coached against in 2023 Seattle Seahawks - Williams played in 2024, Johnson coached against in 2024 Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Johnson coached against in 2024, Johnson coached against in 2023 (twice) Philadelphia Eagles - played in 2025 New Orleans Saints - played in 2025, Johnson coached against in 2023 New York Jets Miami Dolphins

He still has a lot to work to do on his own in terms of accuracy, touch, etc, but just looking at the totality of it, there has never been even a 11% gap between 2 QBs in the NFL, let alone a 16% gap for the Comp Diff (+9.1 and -6.9).

So I took my first deeper dive into Williams' comp% with some other advanced metrics. One I found interesting was xComp from NFL NextGenStats. It simply computes the expected completion percentage for a QB, and then the difference between the actual Comp% and the xComp to come up with a difference value. The normal is +/- 5. Anything over +5 is " extremely lucky" and anything under -5 is terrible luck. Basically those are the non-sustainable ranges. Looking back, it was hard for me to even find a Caleb Williams comp, a QB with over 500 attempts and Comp Diff of -5 or more. There was only one, Trevor Lawrence in 2021. He had a -5 Diff that year, and the following year, his Comp% went up 6.7% from the previous year. There were 2 other QBs with over 500 attempts, Murray in 2019 and Rodgers in 2024, but their Comp Diff were under 5. Williams is still in his own stratosphere at -6.9. There is a very high probability that his Comp% jumps 7% next year to around 65% without any actual changes, just regression to the norm. If he actually improves his own accuracy, then that could even go higher, but we will stick with the norm. 2019 Murray - 542, -3 (64.4 > 67.2) +2.8% 2021 Lawrence - 602, -5 (59.6 > 66.3) +6.7% 2024 Rodgers - 584, -4.7 (63 > 65.7) +2.7% 2025 Williams - 568, -6.9 (58.1 > ?) On the flip side, there was one QB with a +9.1 this year, that is the highest Comp Diff since the stat was tracked. Drake Maye. Tannehill 8.7 in 2019 on 286 attempts, dropped 4.8% the following year Fitzpatrick 7.2 in 2020 on 267 attempts, DNP in 2021 The only other recent comparison is Burrow in 2021 had a +5.9 and his Comp% dropped 2.1% the following year. Maye ended the season with a 72% Comp% and both him and Williams may end up next season with a comp% within 1-2% of each other. Considering they are basically 14% apart right now, that would almost seem unachievable, but the funny part is just comparing their xComps, Williams comes out on top. That is just how unlucky Williams has been (drops, etc) and how lucky Maye has been. Williams xComp 65% Maye xComp 62.8%

I could see a lot of transactions between the two teams going forward. The Cunningham thing will be interesting because somehow the GM in Atlanta is not the head football guy and would not warrant 2x 3rd Round comp picks. If that is the case, that is a terrible rule and loophole. The Bears should just promote Poles then and make Cunningham the GM by title.

I agree, and with the aging core, someone will be a scapegoat.

Pretty wild that they fired Stefanski who groomed a 5th rounder into a Pro Bowler.

Not so fast, it looks like Baltimore has reached out for their OC position. I don't know if Doyle is a good fit there with a vet QB, and older skill position players in Andrews, Hopkins, and Henry.

Looks like Nahshon Wright made the PB as an alternate. Don't know how much that impacts contract negotiations, but it usually does.

He is a UFA, so GB can still resign him, but he was playing on a rookie deal as a 7th rounder and now will command at least $10-15M on the open market. At his age, 25, I am sure his agent will be looking for the higher end of that range, if not more as the LT market is pretty weak this year. GB is currently $10M over the cap.

Due to Maye making the Super Bowl and Allen and others out due to injury, somehow the alternate selection passed up guys like Trevor Lawrence for Shedeur Sanders. Just when you think the award could not get any more ridiculous, they set a new low. At this point, it should not be used as any type of honor.

I guess all I am saying is a lot of Maye's numbers are inflated and somewhat artificial in nature. The Pats had one of the easiest schedules in NFL history followed by the easiest path to the Super Bowl in quite some time. Maye's offense scored 16 points and won by double digits. They also won a game where they scored 10 pts. They didn't hit 250 yards of total offense in the last 2 games, and won both. The Bears had over 415 yards in both of their playoff games and split them.

I am sticking with Caleb as well. Maye is already near his ceiling. He had a 72% Comp this year. Rarely, if ever, does a QB maintain that high of a Comp% YoY. In reality, most drop over 5%. So if his Comp% drops to 66% next year, that's roughly 30 completions, 400 yards, and 2-3 fewer TDs. Still a great season, but he is still primed to regress from his 2025 campaign.

I was wrong, Maye is in a category with Jim Plunkett, as the only QBs in NFL history to win 3 playoff games with under 600 Passing Yards, multiple INTs, and 10+ sacks in NFL history. So it has not been just one game, it has been the entire playoffs. Maye is the only QB in NFL history to be sacked 15 times over a 3-game span and win every game.

Maye is currently in a class with only Trent Dilfer as the worst playoff performance by a QB to reach the Super Bowl in NFL history. If Williams played this bad and the Bears made the Super Bowl, that would be the only discussion for 2 weeks.

Pretty big news, I like the continuity for Year 2 for the new offense.

Just curious, you would you rather have Pick #25 with a 5th year option, or a 2nd (#40) and a 3rd (#72) for 4 years? I feel like in order to get true impact players, most of the time they are first rounders, and it feels like the Bears need more of those type of players to upgrade existing positions where there are average players. On the flip side, how big of a difference is it from #25 to #40?

Yeah that was a good thing, but I feel like he will end up there eventually as a former player. Once we get thru Year 2 with the same core, I will feel pretty confident regardless of which coaches and players leave. Right now the team is still ascending, so continuity is very important. It will be interesting to see if his presence has an impact on the free agent signings like Wright and CJGJ?

Teams have exclusive rights until the start of the new league year. So basically the Bears would have exclusive rights to their FAs thru March 10th, then the legal tampering period opens, so it becomes fair game.

No problemo, I will try to do some deep dives going into next season.

With our current defense, we blow both of these AFC teams out by at least 20 pts. This is some of the worst football I have seen in a long time, and it is a Conference Championship. Obviously, DEN didn't have Nix, but Payton not taking points early was the difference. The Pats are going to win with Maye having 86 yards passing. They have now had one of the top 10 easiest schedules in NFL history, then got LAC, HOU, and DEN w/ a backup QB. Wild really.

Watching the NE vs DEN game, holy hell those teams look like crap. Maye has 55 yards passing thru 3 quarters and 3 sacks. Whoever wins the NFC will crush either of these teams. So many what ifs for the Bears. They had a legit shot if they beat LA.

Next up is the East-West Shrine and Senior Bowls. Just over 6 weeks until Free Agency opens and under 3 months until the draft. January 27th - East-West Shrine Bowl January 31st - Senior Bowl February 17th-March 3rd - Franchise Tag Window February 23rd-March 2nd - NFL Combine March 9th-11th - Legal Tampering Period March 11th - Free Agency Officially Opens April 20th - Clubs with returning head coaches can begin offseason workout programs April 23rd-25th - NFL Draft May 1st - Designate 5th-year options from 2023 Draft (Wright) May 1st or 8th - Rookie Minicamp

Detroit hires Petzing as their OC and GB hires Gannon as their DC. ARZ's defense was one of the worst in the NFL over the last 3 years finishing 29th, 15th, and 31st in pts while the offense was not much better finishing 23rd, 12th, and 24th. Considering GB is going from Hafley to Gannon; that is a huge downgrade in coaching. Gannon benefitted from a stacked roster in PHI which he will not have in GB, nor did he have in ARZ. DET let go their OC that had the 4th highest scoring offense for one that had the 23rd. Are they going to have Petzing use their current offensive scheme or will they change to his? Either way that is a downgrade. Now the last domino is hopefully Flores. MIN did extend him as their DC, but there are still HC vacancies left. I don't know if he announced that he would not take any of those jobs but BUF, LVR, ARZ, and CLE are still open.

Outside of the division, the Bears top QBs they will face will be: Allen, Maye, and Lawrence with 2 of those games at home. I kinda like that. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Mayfield Philadelphia Eagles - Hurts Jacksonville Jaguars - Lawrence New York Jets - Rookie? New England Patriots - Maye New Orleans Saints - Shough Buffalo Bills - Allen Miami Dolphins - Tua? Atlanta Falcons - Penix/Cousins? Carolina Panthers - Young Seattle Seahawks - Darnold