adam

5 sacks in 719 snaps, and 2 in 724 in 2023. So a 2-yr total of 7 sacks in 1443 snaps, about double the rate of our new IOL guys. However, OTs tend it give up more sacks because they are facing off against the elite pass rushers. The best OTs allows 0-2 sacks in 1K snaps. The average guys about 3-5, so Jones is at the backhalf of that range.

I like it, DLine would be insane.

The more this is discussed, and I know you need a partner, but a trade down seems like the best option. So I guess the question becomes, if there is a trade down scenario to say SEA at #18 with #50 for 10, which players are you taking instead of that trade down scenario? If the Bears get to 10 and Campbell is there AND SEA wants to trade, do you take Campbell or the trade? Which players would you take over the trade, assuming at least that Carter and Hunter are the two non-QBs that are gone for sure? Is Jeanty worth it? Warren? Banks? Which one player is worth sticking with 10 for?

So Banks over Jones? I don't know much about him, how much of an upgrade would that be?

How do you quantify how much of an upgrade the new acquisitions on the OLine will be? Well, I looked at a few stats and this one stood out: Sack Rate (Last 2 seasons) Thuney - Sack Rate 0.16% 4 allowed in 2500 snaps Dalman - Sack Rate 0.27% 4 allowed in 1486 snaps Jackson - Sack Rate 0.17% 2 allowed in 1148 snaps These 3 players allowed only 10 Sacks allowed in 5,134 snaps, a 0.19% sack rate. The 3 players they are replacing and what they did in 2024: Jenkins 4 / 495 Pryor 7 / 659 Shelton 3 / 743 These 3 players allowed 14 Sacks in 1,897 snaps, a 0.73% sack rate, close to 4x more sacks over the same amount of snaps. Caleb was sacked 68 times last year, I would not be surprised if that number is cut in half for 2025, maybe more.

Which one? After Carter, it seems like a crapshoot between Williams, Stewart, Walker, Green, and Pearce. That was the challenge for me. Which one would you choose, and where would they rank amongst the guys above? My order is Jeanty, Warren, McMillan, Johnson, Membou. It just feels like everyone is too low on Jones and are not considering Amegadjie, who just needs better coaching. So if feels like OL at #10 would be a waste as you need an immediate starter there. Jeanty is a no-brainer, and Warren is a close second as he would compliment Kmet well.

I know OL should always be considered, but Poles did draft Amegadjie with a 3rd round pick last year. Knowing his rookie year was going to basically be a red shirt season coming back from injury, he should still be penciled in as the primary backup OT and as the potential replacement for Jones if they don't extend him. If that is the plan, I doubt the Bears draft an OL in the first 3 picks, but I could be wrong.

One of these guys will be there at 10, pick your guy in the poll, then post them 1-5 in the comments for your order.

The Bears last 3 first-round picks are all on offense. I know that is not the highest priority, but to have a balanced roster, that probably needs to even out over time. Like if they have equal grades on two different players, one offense, one defense, I would not be surprised if they went defense at #10 (or after a trade back).

More than likely WR4 and possibly Punt Returner. I think he replaces Carter more than anyone else.

Taking the 4 most likely: 1. McMillan - immediate starter at WR3 2. Membou - competes with Jones for starting LT, if not, backup OT 3. Warren - TE2 4. Stewart - Edge2 or Edge3, Edge rotation

Actually walking thru the teams and their needs, this seems like the most realistic path, leaving the Bears will a few players to choose from at 10: 1. Ward, QB (TEN) - picking a QB 2. Hunter, CB (CLE) - Already have Garrett locked up, can't afford to use on Carter 3. Carter, Edge (NYG) - Carter falls to them 4. Campbell, OL (NE) - Need OL 5. Graham, DL (JAX) - Need DL 6. Jeanty, RB (LVR) - Need RB 7. Sanders, QB (NYJ) - Even with the Fields signing, this would actually make sense for Sanders to sit a year. 8. Walker, Edge (CAR) - Need Edge or TE 9. Johnson, CB (NO) - Need CBs 10. McMillan/Membou/Warren/Stewart? If there is no true elite player left, trading down looks like an option for a team looking for a QB.

Consensus Big Board Top 15 Players (by position) QB - #1 Ward, #4 Sanders Edge - #2 Carter, #12 Walker, #13 Stewart, #15 Williams WR - #8 McMillan CB - #3 Hunter, #10 Johnson OT - #6 Campbell, #9 Membou, #14 Banks DT - #5 Graham RB - #7 Jeanty TE - #11 Warren Consensus Big Board: https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2025/consensus-big-board-2025 If the Bears pick at 10, the most likely pool of players will be: Membou, Johnson, Warren, Walker, Stewart, Banks, and Williams 6 of those 7 should be available at #10. For what it is worth, that site has Shemar Stewart going to the Bears at #10. He is currently ranked 13th. Unless they trade down, there is almost a 100% chance that the Bears pick one of those guys unless someone like Jeanty falls to the Bears at 10. I don't think Graham or Campbell will fall to 10.

One of the ways to look at it is to fill the starter voids before depth concerns. I think you fill those later in the draft and in the late FA period where you don't lose comp picks for signing players. Poles seems to like using that period. I believe the worst 2 positional starters at the moment are Tyler Scott and Tyrique Stevenson (based off 2024). This can always be debated but just a quick glance thru the roster and those are the names I come up with. So WR3 and CB2 have to be on the list. Next, let's generically look at snap counts that need to be replaced by a lost player or based on starter needs from the aforementioned positions of WR and CB. Snap counts that need to be replaced: WR3/4 - 1037 snaps from Allen, Scott, Carter, and Johnson CB2/3 - 1009 snaps from Stevenson + all backup CBs (not Smith) S3 - 785 snaps from Hicks/Owens (here is your depth issue) Edge - 701 snaps from Taylor, Robinson, Martin and Hardy (If Odeyingbo replaced Walker, all these lost snaps are valid) TE2/3 - 469 snaps from Everett and Lewis (some of the worst snaps on offense, I don't think Smythe is the answer here) RB2/3 - 383 snaps from Johnson/Herbert/Homer (assuming you want to push Johnson to RB3) LB3 - 255 snaps from Sanborn, Ogbongbemiga, and Sewell (surprisingly low for LB3) So on snap count alone, you probably need to have WR, CB, S, and Edge targeted. For the other position groups, you have a lot of the snaps covered: DT? - Jarrett replaces snaps from Williams, Cowart, Pickens, and Ford (1007 snaps, Billings~350, Jarrett~650) DT/DE? - Odeyingbo replaces snaps from Walker (738) C - Dalman replaces Shelton (1121) OG - Thuney replaces Jenkins/Curhan (998) OG - Jackson replaces Pryor/Davis (1147) If you consider Brisker coming back would lower the need at Safety, then the top 3 position groups are WR, CB, and Edge, then TE, RB and LB just based on snap counts. I don't think Poles can afford to draft a non-starter in at least his first 3 picks (1st and 2nd rounds). He drafted Amegadjie with his 3rd rounder last year, so I think 3rd and later can go anywhere. If you think about where a top notch rookie could start, WR3 makes a lot of sense since Odunze just did it. CB across from Johnson if you don't trust Stevenson. Rotational Edge will get snaps. With an average of 28 snaps a game, TE2/3 will have a lot of meaningful snaps. RB if you want to go full RBC with Swift. Could they still go OL? Sure, if the best player available is OL and there is no other positional group comparable for that pick, draft them. You can make a case for almost every position group, but if you are just looking at starter quality and snap count, WR and CB make the most sense early, with Edge and TE close behind.

I think Patrick makes a lot of sense and even someone like Lockett if he will comes cheap.

RB2, CB2, and WR3 seems to be the weakest spots.

The worst starter is either WR3 (Scott) or CB2 (Stevenson).

Ok, so Thuney, Jackson, Dalman, Odeyingbo, and now Jarrett.

Dude, this is crazy. Poles will be restructuring Moore, Sweat, and Jaylon to create more space. They are up against the cap now. He can get about $25M out of restructures.

$14.5M per year.

https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1899181141321466016

Depending on how those deals are structured, the Bears have between $12-$14M left in cap. With the draft pool and operating money they might have one or two lower FAs left (under $5M per year).

Williams got the biggest contract total in free agency thus far at $104M total. Crazy money. Hell Dan Moore got $82M from TEN. $16M for Odeyingbo and $14M for Dalman is decent compared to some of these other deals.

Edge. He led the Colts in hurries and QB hits. Sweat just went 4 years for $19.1M per year. This is ultimately a 2-yr deal.