adam

Revisiting the schedule, now post-draft. Right off the bat, I will say the Bears split the division, but that could go plus or minus a win, so at worst 2-4, at best 4-2. Home DET - W GB - W MIN - W DAL - L (Really depends on which DAL team shows up, could go either way) NYG - W (Feels like an easy win) CLE - W (CLE has 5 QBs, and none are starter quality) PIT - W (Defense good, offense bad) NO - W (Feels like one of the easier games on the schedule) 7-1 at home Away DET - L GB - L MIN - L PHI - L (Super Bowl champs) WAS - W (should've beaten them with Flus) BAL - L (Tough matchup) CIN - W (Feels like a shootout in the making) SF - L (This game could go either way, give the edge to SF right now) LVR - W (Should be one of the easier road games) 3-6 on the road 10-7 record, with probably a +/-3, meaning 13-4 if EVERYTHING goes right, and 7-10 if everything goes wrong.

Matt Miller had Luther Burden as the favorite pick of the entire draft. Loveland was his 7th. Pretty cool. He had Burden as his top WR and Loveland as his top TE. Here were his write-ups: Burden was my top wide receiver in the class (I'm counting Travis Hunter as a two-way player), and he landed in a great situation with the Bears and new coach Ben Johnson. Burden's yards-after-catch ability is terrific, and Johnson's scheme has been elite at creating space for wide receivers. Burden likely starts as a slot receiver with DJ Moore and Rome Odunze flanking him, but he thrived in that alignment at Missouri. I had Loveland as my No. 1 tight end, and apparently the Bears agreed; they made him the top tight end drafted. His ability in the passing game -- he runs routes like a receiver and has the speed to separate from linebackers and safeties -- makes Loveland an easy comparison to Sam LaPorta, whom Bears coach Ben Johnson had great success with in Detroit. Value, need and scheme fit all match with this pick.

Both will probably be good, just kind of funny that Warren is actually older than Brock Bowers.

For RB, it seems like it will come down to Chubb, Williams, or maybe someone like Ameer Abdullah? He had 40 receptions last year for LVR, which is impressive considering how bad they were. He averaged 4.7 yards per carry on the same team that Alexander Mattison averaged 3.2.

Demarcus Walker is still a UFA.

Offense TE Everett (246 snaps) > Loveland Lewis (220 snaps) > Smythe WR Allen (850 snaps) > Burden Carter (137 snaps) > Duvernay RB Herbert (27 snaps) > Monangai OL Shelton (1122 snaps) > Dalman Jenkins (738 snaps) > Thuney Pryor (1006 snaps) > Jackson Davis (142 snaps) > Newman Borom/Curhan (591 snaps)> Trapilo Defense DL Taylor (375 snaps) > Turner Walker (739 snaps) > Odeyingbo Cowart (335 snaps) > Jarrett LB Sanborn (235 snaps) > Hyppolite CB Jones (76 snaps) > Frazier Over 5000 snaps replaced on Offense, and 1700 on defense. The entire secondary is basically coming back, and considering they are in Nickel most of the time, the back-7 are virtually unchanged from last year. Outside of the rookies being unknowns, it looks like upgrades across the board outside of Sanborn to Hyppolite and maybe Allen to Burden is a wash in 2025. Loveland over Everett is massive. Every OL spot is massive. I still feel like Edge could use another guy, especially if they don't believe in Robinson, but that's it.

and for PFF grades, only Turner was graded "below average" which is quite impressive considering the snap counts. Loveland - 85.9 Burden - 77.9 Trapilo - 76.8 Turner - 59.4 Hyppolite - 69.2 Frazier - 85.9 Newman - 71.9 Monangai - 77.3

Correct, and both had 13x 100 yard rushing games in their last two seasons. Production-wise, those numbers are really close.

I totally jacked that up, cutting and pasting. That's what I get for reading crap at 5am lol. One was Big Ten, one was Big 12.

Newman is definitely a sleeper pick, which is interesting coming from a Big Ten school. He played LT at Holy Cross and was the 5th highest rated OT in college football in 2023 according to PFF. He was also graded out as the 31st and 32nd best OT the two years prior to that.

I know there were some discussions about Warren vs Loveland, but one other factor that sometimes doesn't get enough attention is age. Loveland is two years younger than Warren.

I saw an interesting comp (there are many). Both Big Ten RBs, both drafted by the Bears, both will be used in a Ben Johnson offense. One was a 7th rounder, and one was a 3rd rounder. Guess the players: RB A - last 2 seasons: 498-2541, 5.1 YPC, 21 TD RB B - last 2 seasons: 515-2362, 4.6 YPC, 24 TD

Funny if you swap a few picks around, they ultimately end up near where they were ranked. Swap Turner and Trapilo, move Monangai up to the 4th, move Frazier over Hyppolite and the values are in line with the consensus big boards. Loveland - TE2 1st Round Grade Burden - WR3 1st-2nd Round Grade Turner - DT6 2nd Round Grade Trapilo - OT7 3rd Round Grade Monangai - RB20 4th-5th Grade Frazier - CB23 5th-6th Grade Hyppolite - LB35 UDFA Newman - OG22 UDFA

and if you got back another year, I think there were at least 3-4 other games Flus'd, so this roster really was a 8 to 9 win, cusp of the playoffs, type of roster. So getting to 10 or 11 wins seems reasonable.

Oh yeah for sure, I think the trenches have to get addresses every year, regardless how good your top guys are.

The league is a head-to-head league, and normally when one team gets better another team gets worse, at least relatively speaking. The Bears had a huge gap to make up in the division as a 5-win team this offseason. Every other team made the playoffs and had no less than 11 wins. So to close the gap, they needed a massive coaching staff upgrade, check, an impactful free agency, check, and a really solid draft, check. It still means nothing until Week 1, but the groundwork is in place to be in the mix with DET, MIN, and GB this season. There is a good chance that the entire NFCN has 10+ wins. I think DET and MIN will come down to earth, GB will be around 9-10 wins, and CHI will be somewhere in the mix. The 4th place team in the NFCN probably misses the playoffs again, and they may be a 10 win team. I am hoping the Bears can get to 11 wins.

Johnson leaves and Detroit literally shits the bed with their draft. Teslaa with pick 70 is 10x worse than Hyppolite at 132, but is 100x worse considering Detroit gave up 3x 3rd round picks for him, their 2025, their 2026, and their 2026 3rd Comp for losing Glenn. This is not talked about enough. There is a great chance that he would've been there at their original pick.

These were the top-4 TE duos in 2024: Kelce+Gray = 137 Bowers+Mayers = 133 McBride+Higgins = 133 Henry+Hooper= 111 11 TEs had 60+ receptions, so I don't think it is out of the question. Loveland may not have 70, but I would not be surprised if Loveland+Kmet exceed what Henry+Hooper did last season with a rookie QB and all-around bad team.

Another name to consider is Jamaal Williams, who had 1K rushing and 17 TDs for Ben Johnson in 2022. He shared a backfield with Swift and Williams was their leading rusher.

As of today, the Bears have 9 offensive starters signed thru 2026 and 8 signed thru 2027. Thuney, Jones, and Swift are the 3. If you assume Trapilo starts at some point, then LG and RB are the only starter needs in the next 2 years on offense (which is awesome). On defense, it is 6 (Sweat, Johnson, Gordon, Odeyingbo, Jarrett, and Edwards) thru 2027. Edmunds, Dexter, and Stevenson go to 2026, with both safeties on the final year of their contracts this year. If Turner becomes a starter at DT, he might negate the loss of Billings in 2026, but the need would pop up after 2026 if Dexter is not extended. Either way, this is not bad at all for current needs for the next two offseasons (starter-wise): 2026 Needs: Safety x2, LG, maybe OT 2027 Needs: RB, LB, CB, DT

Williams 395-580, 68.1%, 4490 yds, 7.7 Y/A, 31 TD, 8 INT Moore 85-930 yds, 8 TD Odunze 75-960 yds, 5 TD Loveland 70-790 yds, 7 TD (top 5 rookie TE season) Burden 65-880 yds, 4 TD (top WR3 in NFL) Kmet 50-480 yds, 4 TD Swift 30-250 yds, 1 TD Others 20-200 yds, 2 TD Williams' numbers would put him 4th in completions, attempts, and yards, 6th in TDs, 5th in INTs, 8th in Y/A, and 9th in Comp%. All of these are completely scientific and can't be disputed until they are incorrect after the season.

If the Bears didn't trade back with BUF, they could've had Scourton at 41 and then took Johnson or Skattebo in the 3rd. 1-Loveland 2-Burden 2-Scourton 3-Kaleb Johnson 5-Marcus Mbow It will ultimately come down to Trapilo and Turner for this draft for me.

Just looking through stats from last year, the Bears will have the deepest receiving group in the NFL. Whoever ends up as pass-catching TE2 will be the best TE2 in the league. Whoever ends up as WR3 will be the best WR3 in the league. Whoever ends up WR2 will be a top 5 WR2. Odunze had the most yards of any WR3 and the 2nd most receptions in the NFL last year. Allen had the 2nd most receptions as WR2, both on a terrible offense. If things go as planned, I think Moore will have over 80 receptions, Odunze and Loveland will have over 70, Burden over 60, and Kmet over 50. Add 30+ for RBs and another 10 or so for all others and that should put Williams near 400 completions. Williams had 351 last year and Goff had 390 with comparable weapons, so it checks out. Moore, Odunze, Burden > St. Brown, Williams, Patrick Loveland, Kmet > LaPorta, Wright Swift, Johnson < Gibbs, Montgomery I also think Moore will have 20+ carries (he had 14 last year) and I am sure Burden and Loveland will have a few as well. That may be why they didn't want to commit higher draft capital on a RB.

I was thinking maybe Dobbins or Chubb. With the run of RBs drafted, plus what teams already had on their rosters, those free agents don't have very many options. The Bears seem like one of the logical destinations.

I am glad to see a couple of Edge and Safeties. Very interesting to see zero RBs. They must believe in Wheeler or have something else cooking.