adam

It is mock draft season again lol. After all of last year's intrigue with 2x first rounders, now the Bears go into the draft with 2x 2nd rounders. This basically assures them of having a chance to get 3-4x Day One starters. Using the PFF Mock Simulator, after going thru it a few times, this scenario seems possible based on the current player grades: 9. Will Campbell, OT (replaces Jones) 36. Trey Amos, CB (replaces Stevenson) 41. T.J. Sanders, DT (pair with Dexter and Billings) 73. Jalen Royals, WR (WR3 assuming Allen does not return) 145. Luke Kandra, OG (new LG or RG) 201. Andrew Mukuba, S (Brisker insurance) The only thing missing is Edge. What do you think?

Now articles are coming out about Poles. Supposedly Eberflus was going to be fired by Indy before the Bears hired him, LOL. Also, on Davis signing, Poles was warned about his work ethic and still signed him to a big deal. If you take a step back and just look at everything Poles has done, there is nothing in there that is spectacular. He got lucky on the CAR trade and made a league average trade for Swift after whiffing on Claypool.

Here are the NFC North's draft picks from each team from 2022 and 2023 with an AV of 5 or more, with an honorable mention for a 2023 pick with AV of 4. This is how each team did: GB (9) - 14 picks in the first 5 rounds, 3 first rounders 2023 - Reed - 9, Wicks - 6, (Kraft - 4) 2022 - Walker - 13, Watson - 11, Doubs - 11, Tom - 12, Enagbare - 7, Walker - 10 DET (8) - 12 picks in the first 5 rounds, 4 first rounders 2023 - Gibbs - 10, Campbell - 5, LaPorta - 9, (Branch - 4) 2022 - Hutchinson - 18, Williams - 5, Joseph - 10, Rodriguez - 8 CHI (6) - 13 picks in the first 5 rounds, 1 first rounder 2023 - Wright - 8, Stevenson - 6, (Roschon - 4) 2022 - Jones - 13, Brisker - 9, Gordon - 7 MIN (3) - 12 picks in the first 5 rounds, 2 first rounders 2023 - Addison - 7 2022 - Ingram - 13, Evans - 6 So a few things stand out. Detroit having 4 first rounders in 2 years really helped a ton. 6 of their 8 high AV players were drafted in the first 45 picks. GB is almost the polar opposite. Only 2 out of their 5 picks in the top 42 hit. They made their money between the late 2nd and 5th rounds. The Bears were clearly hurt by not having 2 first rounders, but Poles still got Brisker and Gordon in the 2nd. His big hit is Jones who may be replaced next year. Stevenson is listed but is probably not even a starter anymore and Roschon is nothing more than an RB2 or RB3. So Wright and Gordon may end up being all they get out of these drafts in a year or two (assuming Brisker's health). That is not good. To have sustained success you have to have 3-4 players contribute per draft year. Somehow Minnesota is good without any good drafts in recent years. This will catch up to them eventually because the bulk of their players are coming out of their rookie deals. The new GM really inherited a lot of good players. They were never in a full rebuild like the Bears were, but it is still shocking to see only 3 players on the list.

Yeah you are probably right, which means unless PIT wants to move up, the Bears are standing pat at whatever top 10 pick they have. I am just hoping a QB or two go off the board before they pick.

If you watch all the sacks there are very few plays were anyone is open or at least in his progression. What seems to happen is his 3rd or 4th read may be open but because of the pressure he might be at his 2nd read by then.

Caleb Williams joins RGIII as the only QBs in NFL history to have 2,700 Passing Yards, 16 Passing TDs, less than 6 INTs, and 400 Rushing Yards in their first 13 starts. So if he stays on this pace, he would be the only rookie QB in NFL history to hit 3,600 Passing Yards, 20+ Passing TDs, with less than 7 INTs and over 500 Rushing Yards. Daniels could join him but he can't throw more than 1 INT the rest of the way and would need at least 5 Passing TDs. Nix already has 8 INTs and would need a lot more rushing yards. Williams needs 214 passing yards per game, 1 Passing TD per game, and to not throw more than 2 more INTs in the last 4 games and rush for 24 yards per game.

Yeah we will see. Like I said, it really comes down to which team shows up.

I am just sick of Trace Armstrong hirings. He is making millions off these transactions knowing the Bears will come back to the well ever 3-4 years with another need.

At this point, it would be a miracle if the Bears drafted outside of the top 10. With that in mind, I wanted to see what type of players were available in the top 10. According to a collection of big boards here is what I came up with: T. Hunter CB/WR - most likely non-QB to go #1 T. McMillan WR - I feel like the Bears are good at WR with Moore and Odunze and a vet like Allen or someone else can be WR3. M. Graham DT - I would love him on the Bears A. Jeanty RB - Not the ideal position for the Bears, but if he fell to #9, that would be a hard one to pass up. A. Carter ED - Would be amazing across from Sweat W. Johnson CB - Not the biggest need but would be nice across from JJ M. Starks S - Brisker should be back W. Campbell OT - I want him or Graham as my 1a and 1b N. Scourton ED - Another nice option across from Sweat K. Banks OT - I feel like he would be the pick only if Graham, Carter, Campbell, and Scourton were gone. So no QBs listed in the top 10, even though Sanders, Ward, and Milroe are coming out. There is a good chance that teams looking for a QB will have to bite the bullet, because Sanders, Milroe, and Ward are not lasting to the 2nd round. That helps the Bears as if any QBs go before the Bears pick, a star is falling to the Bears. 1. LVR - Needs QB 2. NYG - Needs QB 3. NE - 4. CAR - depends on how they view Young 5. JAX - 6. TEN - depends on how they view Levis 7. NYJ - Needs QB 8. CLE - stuck with Watson for at least 2025 9. CHI - 10. NO - Needs QB The only teams outside of the top 10 that could want a QB are IND, ATL, and possibly even PIT.

With the CIN win, the Bears are the lone 4-win team, locked in at #9. If the odds play out, the Bears will lose their last 4 games. So at worst, they will have the #9 pick. In order to move up, they would some of the 3-win teams to win 2 out of their last 4. These are the remaining games that have 5-win teams or worse facing off. JAX has the easiest path to 2 wins. TEN also has a shot. CAR has been playing well but losing, and NYJ almost won this week. Then we have Week 18 where WC teams may rest their starters. Week 15 - NYJ@JAX, DAL@CAR, CIN@TEN Week 16 - JAX@LVR, CLE@CIN Week 17 - TEN@JAX, LVR@NO Week 18 - None My prediction is if the Bears lose out and finish 4-13, they will Pick 6th or 7th.

OLine and better route schemes. I have never seen so many receivers within 10 yards of each at the same point in route tree. Like you have to know that one defender can basically cover all of them, let alone 3 or 4.

This one should be fun. It will depend on what Chicago team shows up. If the same one that has mailed it in shows up, this is an easy 20 pt win for Minnesota. If the Bears roster plays up to potential, it will be a lot closer like the first game. However, looking at what Shanahan did to Washington on Sunday, I am assuming KOC will know how to use Jefferson, Addison, Hockenson, and Jones the same way. My initial thought on this is 31-13 Vikings.

What I am saying is, in a vacuum yes, the Bears can improve with a few key positions, but so can every other team in the league, so it cancels itself out. In order to improve, you have to draft better than the next team and sign free agents that are better than the opponents. I don't think Poles has to done that yet. Will the team fire him? Probably not, because he drafted Caleb and he really didn't get to hire "his" HC. So we will see. I am just thinking, if they lose out, and he has the worst record of any team and GM in the NFL in the last 3 years, how could they justify bringing him back?

His QBR is all sacks. He would be a top 10 QB without the sacks for QBR.

The Sanborn thing was crazy, when you do allow a guy to catch a pass in the field of play and just stare at him. Why was he not diving at the guy fighting for the ball?

It is like any other business. You remove the underperformers until you find the right guy. You don't know if the next guy will work out, but you already know the current guy is not working out. What less would Poles have to show to make you believe that he needs to be fired? How many more losses in a 3-year period? How many more losses in a row?

Do you really think 3 FA or high draft picks is going to change this? It's not like the other teams are not picking any players. So the Bears get 3 players in the first two rounds, while pretty much every other team gets 2. That is a net gain of one potential player, and that is only if the Bears picks pan out. There is no emotion here, they have lost 7 straight and this current roster is a 4-9 team. In the last 6 games, they have as many one-score losses as blowout losses. So teams like the Jets, Browns, Jags, Titans who are very similar to the Bears are close and should also just run it back? These are all terrible teams with terrible rosters that lack star power. Again, if CAR happens to win 2 more games this season and the Bears lose out, the Bears will be tied for the worst team in football over the Poles era. That is not emotion, that is fact.

2-pt conversions don't count for stats, even if he caught it, he would have zero receptions.

Thru 13 games it is clear that the roster is too weak to compete. At a minimum, they need a new LT, C, and RG. My assumption is they will keep Jenkins and Wright. I don't think Allen comes back, so they will need a new WR3, which is a need, but more like tier 2. TE2 is also in this group. On defense, they need a true Edge2, DT, CB2, and probably S. That is 9 starters or key contributors. For upgrades, they need to look at RB, LB, and rotational DT. That is 12 new bodies and we would be going into Year 4 of a rebuild. That is unacceptable in my opinion.

Cole Kmet did not have a target yesterday. That is only the 2nd game in his career where he did not receive a single target.

Thru 13 games: 1. Moore - 712, needs 72 per game for 1K 2. Odunze - 585, needs 104 per game for 1K 3. Allen - 471, needs 132 per game for 1K 4. Scott - 0, needs 250 per game for 1K

I have never seen a zone where the LBs are within 5 yards of the LOS but the Safeties are 25 yards downfield leaving a huge hole in the middle of the field. I was surprised Purdy even had an incompletion.

That was one of Caleb's worst games of the season. QBR of 32.5, 3rd lowest of all QBs, only O'Connell and Levis were lower. He is up to 2,746 Passing Yards, 16 TD, and 5 INT thru 13 games. Nix 2,842, 17 TD, 8 INT Daniels 2,819, 15 TD, 6 INT Williams 2,746, 16 TD, 5 INT So all 3 rookies are within 96 passing yards, 2 TDs, and 3 INT. The most alarming thing is his sacks, now up to 56 thru 13 games, a franchise record with 4 games left. The next closest QB in the NFL has 41 sacks (Stroud). So Caleb is on pace for over 70 sacks, which is insane. I would say at least a 1/3 of them are on him at this point.

The team needs to purge itself of whatever has infested the organization. Whether it is weakness, passiveness, being too nice, whatever it is, they need to clean house and start fresh while Caleb is still on his rookie deal. I would fire Poles, the entire coaching staff, and other staffers that have bred this losing culture over the past 3 years. For the roster, I am saving some cap space by cutting or trading Edmunds, Everett, and Bates to free up about $15M. Some dead cap for Edmunds but it would be worth it. I would be open to trading just about anyone on the roster for draft capital. Poles has now built a team that has had 2 losing streaks 7 games or longer. There are teams that have not lost 7 games in that same time frame, but people are defending Poles. This is the 2nd worst team in the NFL over the past 3 years and there is a good chance CAR passes the Bears with 2 more wins in the last 4 weeks to put the Bears at the bottom.

The roster is too weak. If SF could do that to the Bears with 10+ starters injured, then the 3-4 guys the Bears were missing shouldn't have mattered. Their 5th string RB scored a TD on the Bears defense. At the end of Year 3 and the team still needs a DT, Edge, CB, probably another S, and an upgrade at LB. That's 5 on defense. On offense, they need at least 3 on the O-Line at a minimum and a real threat to catch the ball at TE. That is another 5 players without counting depth pieces. There is no way this roster should be that weak after 3 full offseasons.