adam

and on Flus lol.

Just posting info as it comes in. Take it for what it is worth:

My Top 15 Bears Big Board (with notes): 1. Caleb Williams, QB (no-brainer, if Bears are drafting #1, you pick CW) 2. Marvin Harrison Jr, WR (if the Bears trade down and they are not drafting a QB, MHJ has to be #1 on their big board) 3. Drake Maye, QB (If they Bears trade down and are still looking for a QB, he would be the pick over MHJ) 4. Malik Nabers, WR (If the Bears trade down and the top 3 are gone, it's between him and Brock Bowers for me, but WR2 is such a hole) 5. Brock Bowers, TE (He is neck and neck with Nabers, I may switch this after the combine) 6. Rome Odunze, WR (If the top 5 are gone, you take Odunze) 7. Dallas Turner, Edge (When those top 6 are gone with maybe Daniels, I could see the Bears moving back, but if available, I would go Turner) 8. Laiatu Latu, Edge (If Turner is gone, Latu is next) 9. Joe Alt, OT (Right now he is my first pick at OT, which is more of a luxury pick as an upgrade, not filling a huge hole) 10. Jared Verse, Edge (If the other 2 Edge are gone, after Alt, I would go back to fill the Edge need with BPA) 11. Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT (If the 3x Edge are gone and Alt, then it is Fashanu time) 12. JerZhan Newton, DL (He would be my first DT right here, depending on combine, he may move up) 13. J.C. Lathan, OT (Last OT before the skill level drops off a little, would drop if JJ is not signed as need for CB would be greater) 14. Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB (Dependent on JJ status, but more of a luxury pick if JJ is signed, he may go up if JJ is not signed, or down if he is) 15. Brian Thomas Jr, WR (He would jump ahead of McKinstry if JJ is signed, but not higher as this time. This is through a Bears lens assuming the guys above them are gone. I am really trying to stick to QB, WR, TE, Edge, DL but it's hard when their are elite talents at OT and CB sitting there. With 2 picks, the Bears can maybe afford to go with a luxury pick at OT (sliding Jones to swing tackle) or CB and having him compete with Stevenson or filling JJs spot. Did I miss anyone? Thoughts?

Here is my take on that. If you have 3+ teams offering you massive hauls for #1, you keep the pick. That many teams are reinforcing their belief in Williams. If you only have Washington, or maybe one other desperate team, then you take the best offer and trade down for the haul because just because CAR was willing to offer a haul for Bryce Young doesn't mean he was worth that much. So simply put: 1. Draft Williams if 3+ teams are offering massive hauls. 2. Trade #1 pick for haul if only one or two teams have offers in for #1. Then whatever they do next will be determined by what they did first. I think if they trade the #1 pick, and it's to WAS, and they only move to #2. There is a chance that Poles will trade back a 2nd time (if they are rolling with JF1) and end up with multiple 2nd rounders in 2024, and multiple 1sts in 2025. That would be insane. 3 2025 1st rounders!

There really is a lot of potential, but at the end of the day, draft capital is just that, capital. Unless whatever you use it on has a high Return on Investment, then it's a wash. So it does give Poles more bullets, but he can't miss on too many. I ultimately think his experience with Mahomes, then Fields will give him one of the best perspectives in the game about the QB position going forward. Also, Cunningham was with Hurts and then got to see Fields. Those are two unique experiences but provide a common data point in Fields. With all of that, I think they know which way they are going unless an nuclear offer comes in.

Pix, We can definitely do that, like we have in the past with our collective mock drafts where a few of us had different teams and then over the course of a month, each of us made our pick up to 32. I think we could easily do a top 15 Big Board, which should include 2 new Bears in 2024.

That would be insane. Washington is the worst team in the league, and then they trade away 2 additional 1sts to move one spot? So now they have Williams, cool, but no 1st round talent around him for 3 years? Also, if you have multiple teams offering something comparable, it shows how much they believe in Williams too, so you almost have to consider keeping the #1 if multiple teams are offering that much. If it's only Washington, then I think you take it, and press your luck with Fields or Maye. Washington probably ends up with a top 5 pick the next two years (top 3 in 2025 almost guaranteed), so you have two more years of hedging your bet on a QB. It will be interesting to see how Carolina does this year without a 1st rounder. They have a weak roster, their best player was a 35 year old WR, and I doubt they attract many top end FAs (who would want to go there?). So they may end up with another top 5 pick in 2025 (makes the Bears 2nd rounder be a top 37 pick). Even if Young improves, they will be out of his rookie deal by the time they are even average again. This would seem to be the trend for any bad team that trades up and gives up multiple picks.

So I was looking back as far as the 2017 draft to see where QBs were slotted on the Draft Big Boards prior to the drafts. This one site takes a collection of most major big boards on the internet and collates them into a consensus board. I really like this as it takes out some biases and other factors. Some big boards are BPA, others are sort of slotted like their projected draft positions. It makes me sick that the Bears drafted Trubisky, AND traded up for him no less. On the Consensus Big Board for 2017, Trubisky was ranked 13th, Watson was 15th, and Mahomes was 22nd (which is crazy looking back). Myles Garrett was #1. Looking back at the most accurate draft projections, basically the top 5 mocks had Jamal Adams, Solomon Thomas, or Jonathan Allen going to the Bears, not Trubisky. On predicted a trade with Cleveland, where Cleveland drafts #1 and take Garrett, then trades with the Bears to move up to take Trubisky at #3. The Bears move back to #12 and get Watson. That would've crazy. In 2018, the highest QB was Sam Darnold at #3. #1 was Saquon Barkley. In 2019, Josh Allen was #3 with Nick Bosa being #1. In 2020, Joe Burrow was #2 with Jeff Okudah being #1 In 2021, Trevor Lawrence was #1, Fields was #4 and the 3rd QB. In 2022, Malik Willis was #14, with Aidan Hutchinson at #1. In 2023, Bryce Young was #1, Stroud was #3 behind Anderson. Currently Caleb Williams is #1 with Maye at #3, and somewhat surprising to me, Daniels at #5. Here is the link, you can see all the drafts here: https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2024/consensus-big-board-2024

We sort of thought about this, but now it was said. Just some dudes opinion, but it does make sense because the Raiders think Getsy is one of the top 32 OC's in the world if they hired him. Getsy was Davante Adams' WR Coach early on his career, so I am sure he got a vote of confidence from him.

There is a reason why I post a lot of stats, and try to look at them from different points of view. I lean on stats more than reporting and media, because at the end of the day, they are the result of the player. Now the end result is not always his fault (INT due to WR), but for the most part the stats are as accurate of a depiction as we are going to get for a player than anything else. They are not perfect but they are the strongest indicator of success or failure that we have in sports.

Guys, you both have been right and wrong before, I have too, it's ok. I can post about someone having a 300 yard game to support something I am posting about, but then Grizz comes in and reminds me that 120 of those yards were in garbage time. Everything has context and nuance, and we only ever know 50% or so of what is really going on unless someone on here is inside Halas Hall. I try to post interesting info I find and discuss. I am wrong a lot, called out a bunch. It's all for fun. I laugh to myself at some comments, I disagree with others. Either I engage when it is counter to what I think and I try to provide evidence or I don't engage at all.

Here is the thing with the Fields vs Williams vs Other QB debate. I think no matter what direction the Bears go, they are a playoff team. If the Bears get a historic haul to trade out of the #1 pick, they will take it. If they don't get that type of offer, they probably go with a QB at #1, or even trade down and draft one later. If the Bears go into 2024 with Fields, they win at least 9 games, and probably as high as 11. I think if they go with Williams, for his rookie year, the floor may be 8, but the ceiling is around 12. If they go with someone like Maye, I think the floor is a little lower, 7-8 wins, and the ceiling is probably around 9-10 for his rookie year.

Luke Getsy to the Raiders, I assume they are out of the running for Fields, but maybe still for the #1 pick trade. So either the Raiders think Fields was the problem or they are batshit crazy.

It will be a top 5 (easiest) no matter what.

I think the Bears are a year away. They haven't had 1st rounders for so long because of Trubisky and Mack that the foundation was bare.

That is a hilarious trade. I was figuring #2, a 2nd rounder, a 2025 1st, and something else (player or another pick).

What is wild is she is on a bunch of different outlets and Fox Sports. Like they are actually paying her a salary to do that? Why? What are her credentials? I don't mind females in sports media, but unless it is someone like Cynthia Frelund who is doing analytics with math models, I would rather they stick to the sideline reporting and basic sportscasting.

Their roster was strong enough to survive that. One other thing, they absolutely fleeced Carolina without having to give up a 1st for McCaffrey. They then had a top 5 O-Line, top 3 RB, top 5 TE, and a top 10 WR Duo in Deebo and Aiyuk. Couple that with a top 5 defense and you can whiff on a pick like that, especially when you hit on a 7th rounder that is good enough and predictable.

For Fields to hit Williams high numbers, he would have to improve this offseason by 28%, to hit Williams low numbers Fields would have to improve by 12%. So what are the odds that Williams hits his high number, or his low number, and what are the odds that Fields hits the 28% and or the 12%. Poles is going to go with the more likely probability, whatever he determines that to be.

If Williams drops by 20%, here would be his average pro numbers per game: 251 yds/g (4,273/season), 2.2 TD/g (38/season), 0.46 INT/g (8/season). 4,273, 38 TD, 8 INT If he drops 30%: 220yds/g (3,736/season), 1.9 TD/g (33 TD/season), 0.5 INT/g (9/season) 3,736, 33 TD, 9 INT The INTs for him were so low that 20 or 30% don't move it too much, so I would say those could increase by 1 or 2 more just based on other factors, 17 game season (longer), playing teams twice, etc. Other than that, those are honestly realistic numbers just based off a generic projection.

For Bagent, simply D2. He got a lot of reps, but the opponents were so much slower, weaker. I don't know any other way to equate it other than his games were more like a friendly or a scrimmage. So you know what he can do, I would say Bagent's ceiling and floor are much closer together than Fields. The only way for Bagent to improve significantly would be for the rest of the team to get better around him thus making things easier for him. Wentz was good for a year and sort of flamed out. Ironically, he was good on a team that won the Super Bowl without him. So he probably wasn't that good to begin with. Lance was never going to be good, or if he does, he would need 2-3 years of a ton of playing time. He hasn't gotten that, and you can only improve so much in practice. Purdy had 1467 attempts in college, which is great D1 volume. You sort of know what a QB is after 1000 attempts or so. They don't change that much. He is clearly a game manager. In college, his last two years, he played very pedestrian. His college career average yards per game was 253. That would translate to a 200 yard passer in the NFL on average. He is averaging 226 yards per game in the NFL in the perfect situation. I figure he will settle in to be a 220-230 yard per game guy for his career. The one thing that carried over for him is the INTs, he had basically a 2.5% INT rate in college and that is what he has in the pros. That is not bad, but not elite. Williams has a 1.2% and 21% of his career INTs came in one game. Rodgers has a 1.4% for his career. Looking back, I missed the eval on Mahomes. I listened to the media and didn't look at the numbers. I kept seeing he was careless with the ball, and he had a ton of picks. Nope. His last year in college he had a 1.7% INT rate and for his college career it was 2.1%. He had 1349 attempts in D1, check. He had some monster games, check. He had a high TD rate, check. Everything carried over to the pros, its comical. He averaged 351 passing yards per game for his college career. I only used his best season above. He is down to 296 in the NFL, down 15.7%. He had 2.9 TD/g, down to 2.3 in the NFL, down 21%. So Mahomes isn't doing anything that couldn't be projected. Take his college numbers and reduce by 15-25% and you have his pro numbers. That is what he is doing. What we don't know is how far they will fall. Every player drops, how much is the question. Elite guys are under 20%, or guys that are game managers that have been very consistent in college over several years. Then you got tier 2 guys in the 20's to 30%, then everyone else above 30%.

Nope, he pulled out, no pun intended.

I think Fields can be a top 10 QB, but in my opinion, he would almost need to sit for a year as a QB2 (which I doubt ever happens), and allow him to just concentrate solely on improving his weaknesses. Even without that, he can marginally improve anywhere. If Fields comes back, with the new coaching staff, and new weapons, he will be better. I just don't know how much. It is such a fascinating situation because they Bears are weighing so many variables that in the end, I don't think you really can go historically wrong. Like if the Bears draft Williams, at worst he is a taller Kyler Murray. If they keep Fields, at worst, he is the same player with better surroundings. Either one makes this a team with at least a winning record and the cusp of the playoffs. The flip side is what is the ceiling? That is the biggest question. Can the new offensive coaches unlock something in Fields that has not been unlocked by the last two staffs? If they can, what is the new ceiling? For Williams, can they translate his success and make it work in the NFL framework in 4 months, and what does that potential look like? Mahomes sort of nullified the QB record in college, and because conferences vary in terms of competition level, it's hard to equalize that. So I have actually never used that in comparing prospects as far as I know. What I was implying was the volume again. That has always been a concern of mine and rarely do QBs with such low volume in terms of passing attempts succeed in the NFL. Mainly because you really don't know who they are yet. Fields really got screwed by the COVID year. Williams threw 481 more passes in college than Fields. It took Fields almost 2 years in the NFL to hit that number. 241-267 is the correct range, it was a typo. That is the most likely projection of yardage based on the reduction in yardage by percentage from college QBs to the NFL. He could be worse, but 225 seems like the absolute lowest, but he could also be higher, somewhere in the low 280s, which would put him at 4,800 passing yards on the season. The median is 254 which is 4,318 in a 17-game season or 4,064 in 16 games assuming they rest him in Week 18 for the playoffs. For weaker competition, I am saying Ohio State plays weaker opponents compared to the Chicago Bears. Fields had a stacked offense in Ohio State and he played weaker opponents than he has seen playing with the Bears. However, outside of 4-5 games (both Clemson games), he hasn't really dominated the competition with his arm. So why would anyone expect him to do that in the NFL, especially with guys like Mooney and Pettis?

Yeah, I can see him going to PHI at 22 or even ARZ at 27 (their 2nd 1st rounder).

As a media member, I find it funny that you have to justify your existence, and when you get something right, you are patting yourself on the back. In most cases, you have a 50% chance of being right on every prediction on whether a player or team will be good or not good.