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Everything posted by adam
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Smith gets burnt, zero help in the end zone. Terrible coverage. Also, this is easily a loss if they are not going to call holding on GB. Every Jones run there has been blatant holding right at the point of attack and it's not being called.
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Not much Fields can do there. Ugh sack. At least the punt gets caught at the 8 and not a touchback.
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They even showed a different coach and he said it was Getsy, I think it was Borgonzi.
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So far Getsy had to do the predictable screen on 3rd down, now does the boot with Trent Taylor trying to block the OLB Gary. Come on Getsy. Just put Kmet, Lewis or ESB there. Fields ends the first quarter 6-6, 55 yds.
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They just had Taylor block Gary wtf Getsy.
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Walker with a huge 1 armed sack on Love to force a FG that they miss.
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First drive a doink FG that goes in, Bears 3-0, I think that's a good omen, right? Fields looked solid, play calls on the short stuff is still sus for me. Everyone knew a screen was coming there.
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I am hoping for a Bears win and Raiders win. Bears get #11 in that scenario which is crazy good for an 8 win team that also has the #1 pick.
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NE's loss locks them in for #2 or #3 depending on WAS/DAL game. WAS is either drafting #2 with loss, #3 with win and ARZ win, or #4 with win and ARZ loss. ARZ is either drafting #3 with a loss and WAS win, or #4 with a loss and WAS loss. ARZ can drop all the way to #6 with a win and NYG and LAC losses.
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Also, watching all these games has me really disappointed in our receivers. Some amazing catches and contested catches unlike Mooney, Scott, and Tonyan. Almost everything is being caught.
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With the Saints about to win, the Bears are guaranteed no worse than the #12 pick. That also means the Falcons lose, making the best pick the Bears can get is #9. #9 - With Bears loss #10 - Can't get 10th pick due to SoS, either 9th or 11th/12th. #11 - With a Bears win and Raiders win. #12 - With a Bears win and Raiders loss.
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Watching the snowy NYJ/NE game makes me feel what Fields did in the snow even more amazing. The QBs combined are 13-39 for 120 yards late in the 4th quarter.
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GB allowed 30 pts to CAR. CAR was shutout last week, are being shutout this week, scored 9 pts before the GB game and 6 pts before that game. So in the last 3.75 games besides the GB game, the Panthers have scored 15 pts, and scored 30 against GB. Hmmm.
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QUICK HITS - Pick 3 Points and Give a Brief Explanation...
adam replied to madlithuanian's topic in Bearstalk
The NFL or any pro sports are such unique businesses. There are not many professions where you have a good chance of fired every year and you have no clue what your future looks like just a few months later. For players, it is even crazier. You could be on one year deals or non-guaranteed contracts and are literally a private subcontractor working new contracts every year. The GMs just become prime contractors. -
QUICK HITS - Pick 3 Points and Give a Brief Explanation...
adam replied to madlithuanian's topic in Bearstalk
I am sorry but this was funny as hell. I literally spit out my coffee onto my keyboard when I saw this. Thanks Mongo! ?? -
I am shocked at how disappointing the Jags have been this year. They are about to lose to the Titans who have 5 wins. Lawrence has 2 INTs and outside of the 59 Yard TD pass to Ridley, he really hasn't done anything. If they lose this one, its on him. Are they looking to draft a QB? They have Ridley, Kirk, Jones, and Engram to throw to with Etienne in the backfield who is also a receiving option. The Bears don't have anything close to the WR group besides Moore, and Kmet at TE. They also don't have an elite pass catching RB. So the options are 5 v 2.
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I think if Flus stays, Fields has a much better chance of staying, say 75%. They would be looking for continuity. If Fields goes, they think the QB position was holding them back and they are a QB away. I think if Flus is gone, I think there is a 95% chance that Fields is gone with him, that's more likely than Poles bringing in an entirely new staff and giving them Fields just like he did with Flus/Getsy. That seems highly unlikely. So if both chances are even (50/50) for Flus, Fields has a 40% chance of staying. If Flus has a 75% chance of staying, Fields has a 57.5% chance of staying. If Flus has a 75% chance of being fired, Fields has a 10% chance of staying.
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For draft position, Bears want the Vikings, Saints, and Jets to win early, and Raiders to win later. Those are the only teams that can impact draft position.
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Things to watch today: DJ Moore needs 11 receptions to move into sole possession of 2nd place in franchise history for a single season with 103. DJ Moore needs 122 receiving yards to move into sole possession of 2nd place in franchise history for a single season with 1,422. Cairo Santos needs 2 FGs to become the single season franchise leader with 34 (1 ties him with Gould for the lead). TJ Edwards needs 9 total tackles to move into 3rd for solo tackles in a single season with 154 (8 ties Urlacher for 3rd) TJ Edwards needs 12 solo tackles to move into 10th for solo tackles in a single season with 96. Tyrique Stevenson needs 3 PD to move into 4th place for PDs in a single season with 18 (he would pass Tillman, Jackson, and Vasher). Justin Fields only needs 274 rushing yards to become the Bears all-time franchise leader for rushing yards as a QB. Justin Fields only needs 1,475 passing yards and 13 TDs to break the Bears all-time franchise records for a single season.
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I didn't even include that in my post. A lot of things to like. He is definitely a keeper and probably a perennial top 10 QB, great to see, but next year will really be a test for HOU. They don't have their own 1st rounder, they have CLE, so more than likely will get a late 20s pick, not 2x top 5 picks. Stroud ends the season with the #16 QBR and is graded as the #14 QB according to PFF.
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Stroud is playing amazing, but a few things. Outside of that one 75-yard busted coverage TD, he had 189 yards passing. In total 195 of his 264 yards were to Collins. So 17 passes for 69 yards (yay baby) to receivers other than Collins. That's 4.0 Y/A. Just like the WAS game with Fields and Moore. Collins needs to get some credit for that game. Hey IND, you may want to bracket Collins instead of leaving a rookie DB on him with no over the top safety help. What I loved about Stroud's game was the last scoring drive. Tie game, 4th quarter, you go 7-7, and recover from a sack and then a holding penalty while your lead back gets 4 rushes for 7 yards and the TD lol. They took 7 mins off the clock. In between TDs drives, it reminded me of the Bears though, punt, punt, punt. Indy missed a FG, then decided to pass the ball (to Tyler Goodson?) on 4th and 1 with Taylor as your RB. They were on the HOU 15 with 2 more timeouts down 6. Indy shit this game down their leg. Ryans deserves a ton of credit. This defense is sneaky good. In their last 5 wins, they have allowed 19, 3, 16, 17, and 16. In their last 3 losses they allowed 36, 30, and 24. I was surprised to see HOU with 10 wins, who did they beat? IND, TENx2, DEN, ARZ, CIN, TB, NO, PIT, and JAX. Of those teams, PIT is the only one that has 10 wins. I think next year is going to be exponentially tougher. Going from a last place schedule to a first place schedule is going to be interesting: Next season they get MIA, BUF, BAL, KC, DAL or PHI + DET, CHI, GB, and MIN. Good luck Texans!
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The Packers are 4-1 when they rush for more than 125 yards, and they have done that the last two weeks with Aaron Jones who has been over 120 both games.
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Love has been incredibly lucky. He had 2x guaranteed INTs turn into TDs; literally tipped up by a defender to a different WR. Just like in hockey, their is puck luck. Eventually that dries up. I feel like he is going to be one of those top 10-20 QBs, not a future HoFer or perennial to top 5 QB. Hell, he has 1x 300 yard game all year, and zero 4 TD passing games. So he has yet to have a truly elite game.
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Either way the Bears are behind, by 2 to 4 times. If you figure 4-5 being the average, the Bears have half of that right now. If they draft a QB, they will only have 3 going into 2024. If they keep Fields, they will have 4. So a different way to look at this: 1. Bears keep Fields, trade pick for an additional 1st rounder in 2025 (at a min), their 1st rounder drafted roster count goes to 4, and in 2025 count goes to 6. 2. Bears draft Williams/Maye, trade Fields for a 2nd. Their 1st rounder drafted roster count goes to 3, and their 2025 count goes to 4. So 4 and 6 with a potential for 8 in 2026 (if you get 2x firsts) or 2 and 3 with a projected 4 in 2026. It would seem trading the pick accelerates the roster building x2 every year for at least the next 3 years.
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The Pro Bowl is in the week between the Super Bowl and the Conf Championships. Obviously any player on the Super Bowl teams won't be there, and even some of the Conf losers bow out. So if a team like SF or BAL make it, that is a ton of players not going.