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A draft curveball


jason
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What if DT LEONARD WILLIAMS falls to the Bears at 7? I did two mocks and it happened twice. I also had this happen on fanspeak.

 

Assume there are no partners for a trade down. They have to draft Williams, right?

 

If so, that certainly would be a curveball to the draft plans. What would the rest of the draft have to be to alter the unexpected?

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For the record, the fanspeak draft ended up:

 

2-BENARDRICK MCKINNEY, ILB, MSU (Machine. Starts day 1)

3-DERRON SMITH, S, FRESNO ST (Ballhawk, future leader in the secondary)

4-ROB HAVENSTEIN, T, WISC (Allows Long to stay inside)

5-IFO EXPRE-OLOMU, CB, ORE (I don't think he'll last this long, but if so...wow)

6-SEAN MANNION, QB, ORE ST (Prospect with good intangibles)

 

I'd be ecstatic about that draft.

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You take Williams. I don't think the scenario is all the much different than if you take Shelton at #7. If it's Williams, he plays end with some mix of Ratliff/Ferguson at the NT. If it's Shelton, you put Ferguson/Ratliff at end with the others (McDonald, Jenkins, Sutton). Williams might even be able to play NT in Fangio's system and even be a better fit than Shelton - he's really strong and is comparable to the size of Glenn Dorsey, Ian Williams, and Ricky-Jean Francois, who all played there in SF under Fangio.

 

I would think there would be candidates for a trade down, but if we want to add difference makers on defense, we might not even be inclined to do so.

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Jason,

You absolutely have to take Williams. He would be an anchor DE in our 3-4 for the next decade. Obviously this would be similar to taking Shelton first. Can you link some of the Fanspeak drafts to see who was available in later rounds? I would probably look WR or DB in the next two rounds.

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For the record, the fanspeak draft ended up:

 

2-BENARDRICK MCKINNEY, ILB, MSU (Machine. Starts day 1)

3-DERRON SMITH, S, FRESNO ST (Ballhawk, future leader in the secondary)

4-ROB HAVENSTEIN, T, WISC (Allows Long to stay inside)

5-IFO EXPRE-OLOMU, CB, ORE (I don't think he'll last this long, but if so...wow)

6-SEAN MANNION, QB, ORE ST (Prospect with good intangibles)

 

I'd be ecstatic about that draft.

That would be insane. DL - Williams, LB - McKinney, CB - Expre-Olomu, S - Smith would infuse youth and talent into all levels of the defense. Havenstein would be a solid add to the line and why not on Mannion at that point.

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Lots of people think he's the best prospect in this draft. I've also heard that coaches and gm's don't love him as much as the media does.

 

 

I have had this scenario only a couple of times and I took Williams every time at 7. He is an elite player you want to have available when selecting inside the top ten.

 

 

With Randy Gregory college production and off field stupidity, realistically he may be the one to drop.

 

This mock illustrates this scenario with Bears trading back to 13 & 31 with NO.

 

 

1: R1P13 DE RANDY GREGORY NEBRASKA (will be a rush OLB)

2: R1P31 DT JORDAN PHILLIPS OKLAHOMA (NT )

3: R2P7 CB JALEN COLLINS LSU

4: R3P7 RB TEVIN COLEMAN INDIANA

5: R4P7 FS DERRON SMITH FRESNO STATE

6: R5P6 WR CHRIS CONLEY GEORGIA

7: R6P7 S ADRIAN AMOS PENN STATE

 

Even with this trade back it's so hard to replenish all the deficiencies on this team such as OT, C, and CB.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Am I the only one who is starting to think Leonard Williams is a legit possibility at #7?

 

- The Bucs are taking Winston.

- Mariota is going #2 to the Titans or someone else

- The Jags seem to be leaning edge rusher, probably Fowler

- Possible here, but the Raiders desperately need a WR.

- The Redskins signed Paea, Knighton, and Jean-Francois this offseason, so DL is a low priority, though maybe value dictates he goes here.

- The Jets are pretty stacked on the line.

 

Barring a trade up, I can definitely see Williams slipping into out laps.

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Am I the only one who is starting to think Leonard Williams is a legit possibility at #7?

 

- The Bucs are taking Winston.

- Mariota is going #2 to the Titans or someone else

- The Jags seem to be leaning edge rusher, probably Fowler

- Possible here, but the Raiders desperately need a WR.

- The Redskins signed Paea, Knighton, and Jean-Francois this offseason, so DL is a low priority, though maybe value dictates he goes here.

- The Jets are pretty stacked on the line.

 

Barring a trade up, I can definitely see Williams slipping into out laps.

 

That would be a perfect fit for our Dline.

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that would be awesome to have a guy like that fall to us at 7. About time we catch some breaks and get a really good draft this year. We've suffered bad drafts long enough. For once it would be nice to walk away from the draft feeling excited rather than the usual. "Man, I hope this works out" and have to google some of our picks cause no one knows who the hell they are.

 

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Leonard Williams falling to 7 would be similar to Warren Sapp falling and give you a probably pissed off defender that would make everyone that passed on him pay. I like the idea of a guy that is pissed on defense. Regardless of what these guys say they do follow mock drafts and have some sort of idea where they may go and if they drop I'm sure he will feel pissed.

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Leonard Williams falling to 7 is the only way I see a DE being selected. Otherwise I don't think it makes sense with all the talent.

Not sure what talent they have at 3-4 DE beside McDonald and Jenkins. I think Ego, Ratliff, Sutton will line up there. If Houston doesn't come in OLB shape, he could possible play there. The 3-4DE is a glorified DT. Jared Allen and Willie Young will be OLBs unless the add 20-40 lbs. I think a DE is a need since McDonald is hanging on a thread, Jenkins is unknown, Ratliff is getting fragile, Sutton is not a typical 3-4 fit. OLB is overly crowded imo. I can see a few trades if we can get late rd picks for Young, Sutton, or Washington.

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Not sure what talent they have at 3-4 DE beside McDonald and Jenkins. I think Ego, Ratliff, Sutton will line up there. If Houston doesn't come in OLB shape, he could possible play there. The 3-4DE is a glorified DT. Jared Allen and Willie Young will be OLBs unless the add 20-40 lbs. I think a DE is a need since McDonald is hanging on a thread, Jenkins is unknown, Ratliff is getting fragile, Sutton is not a typical 3-4 fit. OLB is overly crowded imo. I can see a few trades if we can get late rd picks for Young, Sutton, or Washington.

 

 

It's the DE/OLB dilemma. I think Allen and/or Houston at 3-4 OLB won't/can't work, and there are already a ton of OLBs, which means they are thrown into the DE mix. That at least four guys rotating.

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Leonard Williams falling to 7 is the only way I see a DE being selected. Otherwise I don't think it makes sense with all the talent.

 

IF they do indeed vision Houston as an OLB, then I DE makes some sense.

 

To me, Jenkins gives me the same feel Alan Ball gives you about the CB position. I think hes just filler. A lot of people are talking about him as a starter and I just don't see it.

 

I know our opinions are different on the matter but again, I really don't see Allen or Young fitting in the base 3-4 at DE either. Washington MAYBE just because he's a freak and may have the strength to play there.

 

Sutton is a bit of a mystery and may end up not having a position.

 

I think Ego could end up being a solid rotational piece up and down the line. With an injury prone Ratliff probably as our starting NT, Ego will probably be needed more there than DE.

 

McDonald's is the only guy I feel real comfotable with at DE.

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IF they do indeed vision Houston as an OLB, then I DE makes some sense.

 

To me, Jenkins gives me the same feel Alan Ball gives you about the CB position. I think hes just filler. A lot of people are talking about him as a starter and I just don't see it.

 

I know our opinions are different on the matter but again, I really don't see Allen or Young fitting in the base 3-4 at DE either. Washington MAYBE just because he's a freak and may have the strength to play there.

 

Sutton is a bit of a mystery and may end up not having a position.

 

I think Ego could end up being a solid rotational piece up and down the line. With an injury prone Ratliff probably as our starting NT, Ego will probably be needed more there than DE.

 

McDonald's is the only guy I feel real comfotable with at DE.

 

Make no mistake, I don't think the pieces the Bears have on the DL are great fits. But I just don't see how the Bears can invest high draft picks, or any draft picks, until they're certain what their roster can do in a 3-4. Maybe it turns out Allen and/or Young possess rush moves that are so unorthodox and effective that they just work in a 3-4? Maybe the Bears have enough hybrid DE/OLB types that they plan on moving them back and forth? Maybe the Bears plan on assisting the would-be DEs with consistent OLB pressure since the DEs might be lighter than normal?

 

Realistically, this is what we know about the defensive starters:

 

DE - NT - McDonald

OLB - Foster - ILB - McPhee

Jennings - SS - Rolle - Fuller

 

That's a lot of uncertainty. Based on what the staff has said, it's likely Rat/Ego share time at NT. Beyond that, we really don't know what they are doing. And if they don't plan on using some of those names at DE, it would be crazy because they'd essentially be throwing multiple guys away without seeing if they can fill the role. That's like being a little hungry and buying a fancy dinner without seeing whether or not the sandwich you have can satisfy you.

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We must be moving the needle because new mock drafts from McShay and Doug Farrar (SI.com) both have the Bears taking Williams.

 

 

Sometimes it sure does seem like these experts do little else than check the message boards and ride the wave of opinion.

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We must be moving the needle because new mock drafts from McShay and Doug Farrar (SI.com) both have the Bears taking Williams.

 

I lean more towards their sources are telling them that Williams is not as highly regarded as early on in this process for whatever reason.

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