Just based on career stats alone which LB would you take?   I'm just curious with the healthy debate of how un-instinctive Edmunds is and that it's a liability early in his career.  This is the stat line for the top 4 LBs in the draft (Chubb played DE).  In a blind test this is about which numbers catch your eye in terms of what you want to add to our defense.    

(I have not posted a poll on this new site so I'm not sure on the formatting and if this is going to end up a double post.)  

Edmunds would not be a liability        but will  take a few years to develop and we do not know what he will turn out to be. We can always say he will be good because he is a physical freak, Floyd is going into his third year and has yet to prove what he is and had higher expectations than Edmunds. I think the top 10 pick needs to be a plug and play not a developing player. Fitzpatrick , Ward, Nelson, R. Smith.

I think with Edmunds it’s more about raw talent than anything.  I was surprised to see that he is only 19 going into the draft.  One thing to think about (and put it into context) was at one point Urlacher played safety.  In college he converted to LB but still didn’t play much at it until late in his collegiate career.  Even then it was a hybrid position. Nevertheless, he turned out pretty good.  

45 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I think with Edmunds it’s more about raw talent than anything.  I was surprised to see that he is only 19 going into the draft.  One thing to think about (and put it into context) was at one point Urlacher played safety.  In college he converted to LB but still didn’t play much at it until late in his collegiate career.  Even then it was a hybrid position. Nevertheless, he turned out pretty good.  

and we started him at WLB because he wasnt ready to shed blocks int he NFL!

I clicked before rereading, and realized you put "LB" rather than "OLB" or "ILB."

The distinction is drastically important.

I think you take the player that you think will have the best career, not just the best year one.  If the Bears need a ILB for a year while player A or B develops, then go sign Bowman or another vet that can play if you need to. 

56 minutes ago, jason said:

I clicked before rereading, and realized you put "LB" rather than "OLB" or "ILB."

The distinction is drastically important.

Sorry, these are all ILB.  

The LBs were in order:

 

Rashaan Evans  stats from 42 career games

Leighton VanderEsche  stats from 28 career games

Tremaine Edmunds  stats from 32 career games

Roquan Smith  stats from 38 career games

When I started to put this together I expected to see far more passes defensed from Roquan Smith.  Seeing just three total in 38 games was a shock to me.  I expected he'd clearly be the leader in this stat among the top 4 LBs.   

The other surprise to me was the higher percentage of TFL that Edmunds has.  For a player who is often said to be lacking instincts he is well above the other first round talents.  Sacks are not counted in TFLs so when we add in his 10 sacks it further puts him ahead.  If this is how well a player with no instincts performs what's he going to do when he really knows how to diagnose plays?   Or flip it the other way...his floor is not nearly as low as some project it to be. 

In their careers Roquan Smith total tackles averages to 6.6/gm,  Edmunds avg 6.6 tackles/gm.  

Based on the their TFL stats I would say the criticism of VanderEsche being a chase and tackle guy, meaning he's not ahead of the play, is probably correct.  That doesn't mean he can't improve there with more experience.  With the least amount of game experience his PDs, and FF standout but the level of competition isn't as high as others.    

 

 

 

2 hours ago, AZ54 said:

The LBs were in order:

 

Rashaan Evans  stats from 42 career games

Leighton VanderEsche  stats from 28 career games

Tremaine Edmunds  stats from 32 career games

Roquan Smith  stats from 38 career games

When I started to put this together I expected to see far more passes defensed from Roquan Smith.  Seeing just three total in 38 games was a shock to me.  I expected he'd clearly be the leader in this stat among the top 4 LBs.   

The other surprise to me was the higher percentage of TFL that Edmunds has.  For a player who is often said to be lacking instincts he is well above the other first round talents.  Sacks are not counted in TFLs so when we add in his 10 sacks it further puts him ahead.  If this is how well a player with no instincts performs what's he going to do when he really knows how to diagnose plays?   Or flip it the other way...his floor is not nearly as low as some project it to be. 

In their careers Roquan Smith total tackles averages to 6.6/gm,  Edmunds avg 6.6 tackles/gm.  

Based on the their TFL stats I would say the criticism of VanderEsche being a chase and tackle guy, meaning he's not ahead of the play, is probably correct.  That doesn't mean he can't improve there with more experience.  With the least amount of game experience his PDs, and FF standout but the level of competition isn't as high as others.   

Great exercise! I purposely didn't cheat, and I still picked Edmunds. Well done.

I'd like to point something out to those who want another OLB edge rusher.

You only bring one of them in a base defense, the other does coverage. If both OLB rush the passer in a 3-4 alignment, that's a blitz. I can't imagine people think we ought to be blitzing on every down. Having two OLB edge rushers doesn't make a lot of sense. You'd always be putting one into coverage.

If on the other hand, you want to drop floyd sometimes, and bring pressure from another angle, there's no reason that it can't come from the ILB position. In fact, that's even tougher to diagnose.

I just want to repeat it again - you don't rush two edge rushing OLB unless you're blitzing. And if you're blitzing, the 5th man doesnt have to come from the OLB position at all.

Also, you'd be wasting the edge rusher's skills if you had him (or Floyd) in coverage on most downs anyway.

If you want another base defense pass rusher, make it a 3-4DE. If you want a blitzing change of pace linebacker, it can be in the middle too, and make it someone who has coverage skills too.

That's why I like Edmunds.
 

Do you think Edmunds starts from day one and makes an impact?

I highly doubt it. This is Paces type of guy, physical freak with upside, but there are all pros sitting there while we take a developmental player, not very smart.

The best thing to do is watch tape,  I am not very smart, but when 50 experts think R. Smith turns into Ray Lewis, or Pat Willis, I am not going to argue and try to find tape to prove me right. We need a plug and play, impact player now. not a 2 year developmental player with high upside.

When a player plays with a better team, your stats are always down because you have more talent around you.

Nicely done AZ.  I thought it was a trick question so I went with Evans (assuming that player had the least amount of ‘games played’).  But in the light of your explanation Edmunds surely makes more sense, especially his age (19) and raw talent.  I still wonder if he wouldn’t be able to play a hybrid role of ILB/OLB as needed.  Seems he has the range for it. 

And to some degree I agree with the point Stinger made. I like Evans a lot (mostly because he’s from Bama) but there could be some truth to his less stats due to his being surrounded by other NFL ready talent.  Nevertheless, if Pace were to pick one of these four I think we’d be in pretty good shape.  So will he???

5 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Do you think Edmunds starts from day one and makes an impact?

I highly doubt it. This is Paces type of guy, physical freak with upside, but there are all pros sitting there while we take a developmental player, not very smart.

The best thing to do is watch tape,  I am not very smart, but when 50 experts think R. Smith turns into Ray Lewis, or Pat Willis, I am not going to argue and try to find tape to prove me right. We need a plug and play, impact player now. not a 2 year developmental player with high upside.

When a player plays with a better team, your stats are always down because you have more talent around you.

Edmunds easily is a day 1 starter, as is Smith.  Both LBs are very good and either makes our defense better, probably quite a bit better.   Likewise both have negatives and Smith is not a slam dunk in all aspects of play.  I've read very few reports, if any of Smith being good handling traffic between the tackles to make plays.  He's just a better fit as a weakside LB, similar to what Trevathan does well for us.    

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000928419/article/daniel-jeremiahs-top-50-prospects-for-2018-nfl-draft-40

Smith is an undersized inside linebacker with excellent instincts and range. Against inside runs, he uses his quickness to beat blockers to spots and is a firm, chest-up tackler. He does need to improve his hand usage because once blockers get into him, he struggles to free himself. He's at his best against perimeter runs. Smith brings outstanding recognition and covers ground quickly. I believe he projects best as a 4-3 WLB where he would be able to use his speed to run-and-chase without having to mix it up inside. Against the pass, he has the speed and agility to cover RBs and TEs. He's an excellent blitzer. Smith might lack the ideal bulk, but he's a playmaker against both the run and pass.

 

 

http://draftanalyst.com/roquan-smith

Neg: 

Does not take the best angles in coverage. Struggles to make plays with his back to the ball. Small and will need a free shot at the ball carrier at the next level.

Analysis: 

Smith is a tremendous pursuit linebacker who plays with a violent style. He has size limitations and will struggle to cover tight ends but will be a very productive linebacker in the proper NFL system.

 

I would be happy with either,  I would like Patrick Willis of which Smith is.

3 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Edmunds easily is a day 1 starter, as is Smith.  Both LBs are very good and either makes our defense better, probably quite a bit better.   Likewise both have negatives and Smith is not a slam dunk in all aspects of play.  I've read very few reports, if any of Smith being good handling traffic between the tackles to make plays.  He's just a better fit as a weakside LB, similar to what Trevathan does well for us.    

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000928419/article/daniel-jeremiahs-top-50-prospects-for-2018-nfl-draft-40

Smith is an undersized inside linebacker with excellent instincts and range. Against inside runs, he uses his quickness to beat blockers to spots and is a firm, chest-up tackler. He does need to improve his hand usage because once blockers get into him, he struggles to free himself. He's at his best against perimeter runs. Smith brings outstanding recognition and covers ground quickly. I believe he projects best as a 4-3 WLB where he would be able to use his speed to run-and-chase without having to mix it up inside. Against the pass, he has the speed and agility to cover RBs and TEs. He's an excellent blitzer. Smith might lack the ideal bulk, but he's a playmaker against both the run and pass.

 

 

http://draftanalyst.com/roquan-smith

Neg: 

Does not take the best angles in coverage. Struggles to make plays with his back to the ball. Small and will need a free shot at the ball carrier at the next level.

Analysis: 

Smith is a tremendous pursuit linebacker who plays with a violent style. He has size limitations and will struggle to cover tight ends but will be a very productive linebacker in the proper NFL system.

 

Great post.  Right now Roquan is the hot pick and if he is not taken there will be riots in the streets it seems.  You cannot argue with them fanatics even if you bring up valid concerns with his size.  If they take him, great, I am his biggest fan.  If they don't take him, I understand why. 

 

I kind of have this odd feeling, that we will all "like" whoever it is we draft.  There are just too many guys that could fit.  SOme may like a pick more than others...but I think we will have a guy that will play and have an immediate impact.  My glass doth overflow...

26 minutes ago, madlithuanian said:

I kind of have this odd feeling, that we will all "like" whoever it is we draft.  There are just too many guys that could fit.  SOme may like a pick more than others...but I think we will have a guy that will play and have an immediate impact.  My glass doth overflow...

I think you're right. I think at #8 Pace could take the 3rd or 4th best option in any of our minds, and we'd still get a damned good player that can help us.

He may surprise us and pick Vita Vae or a WR.

But I think it'll be Nelson or a defender. And everyone already knows who I hope it is. But would I hold Minkah Fitzpatrick responsible for not being on my short list? Nope. I'd start rooting for him right away.

I didn't cheat, and I picked Roquan. ILBs in a 3-4 need to be tackling machines. Period.

5 hours ago, jason said:

I didn't cheat, and I picked Roquan. ILBs in a 3-4 need to be tackling machines. Period.

That he is.   Between Smith and Trevathan we have and excellent tandem for edge run support.  It's going to be tough for teams to run any stretch plays and of course you have Floyd on one edge anyway next to Hicks.  Find a bookend pass rusher opposite Floyd at OLB in Rd 2 and lookout, pass rush can come from anywhere at anytime.  Almost every Oline has a weakness so we'll be better positioned to exploit whatever that is.       

I'm thrilled with this pick.  Let the LB tradition live on!