Trubisky QB Rating

[adam]

Trubisky's worst game passing-wise. 2 bad INTs, 52% completion percentage, a bunch of overthrows to wide open receivers. He had a few nice runs but is missing too many easy passes. 

[AZ54]

On 10/21/2018 at 5:38 PM, adam said:

Trubisky's worst game passing-wise. 2 bad INTs, 52% completion percentage, a bunch of overthrows to wide open receivers. He had a few nice runs but is missing too many easy passes. 

I think the big stage got to him again just like in Green Bay.   It's clearly something he'll have to overcome.  Hopefully with more experience that stuff fades away.  

[adam]

Trubisky is now 10th in QBR and 13th in QB Rating. He is also 2nd amongst QB's in Rushing Yards (behind Cam).

In his last 3 games, he is averaging 334 yards per game, 62.6% Comp, and has 11 TDs and 3 INTs. He is the first Bears QB (ever) to throw for 300+ yards in 3 or more consecutive games. 

He just needs to clean up some stuff and hit the open guys when they give him a chance. I would love to see less over throws or crazy throws into triple coverage. Based on his last 3 games, the stats are there, but to me, he still hasn't passed the eye test.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

23 hours ago, adam said:

Based on his last 3 games, the stats are there, but to me, he still hasn't passed the eye test.

For those still tracking a quick note of comparisons; Trubisky vs Watson and like opponents.  

NE: Trub 333yds 2 TD 2 INTs / Wat 176 yds 1TD 1 INT

MIA:  Trub 316yds 3 TD 1 INT / Wat 239 5 TD 0 INT

I’m with you.  Eye test says it all. 

[AZ54]

2 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I’m with you.  Eye test says it all. 

The eye test says it all because he's largely making the right reads now.  That makes it easy for us to see his potential and the potential of the offense.  If we kept the bad endzone reads w/ INTs as long as he hits those open receivers down the field nobody would care (much) and we'd be adding two more TDs a game.    

[Alaskan Grizzly]

There was this video some kid put together of Trubiskys reads during the Miami game.  Was going to share it because actually it’s a pretty good analysis but it’s hard to watch because of his choice in background music.  Anyhow, yes some of the reads are good but others are questionable.  Remember that game where everyone thought Trub missed a wide open Burton(?) streaking across the back of the end zone?  Some of the reads in this highlight film were eerily similar.  

But yes his reads are sometimes good too.  And some of those tend to be a tad high most times.  

[DABEARSDABOMB]

2 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

There was this video some kid put together of Trubiskys reads during the Miami game.  Was going to share it because actually it’s a pretty good analysis but it’s hard to watch because of his choice in background music.  Anyhow, yes some of the reads are good but others are questionable.  Remember that game where everyone thought Trub missed a wide open Burton(?) streaking across the back of the end zone?  Some of the reads in this highlight film were eerily similar.  

But yes his reads are sometimes good too.  And some of those tend to be a tad high most times.  

One thing to remember, you could cut up Brady's reads and I guarantee the same thing will emerge. It will flat out happen. You have progressions that you naturally go through and with that, if on that 2nd progression, the guy is open, you make the throw....that means if the guy on the 4th progression is more wide open (because a DB fell down or whatever), you won't make the throw cause you never know.

Now a critical element is how the pre-snap read determines what your progressions are going to be. But over the course of a game, there will always be guys that are left open, no matter how great a wideout is, because things can happen down your progressions. 

[lemonej]

It's really hard for me as a 50 plus year Bear fan to criticize the development of any QB because this franchise has never done it in my lifetime. What I have seen from Trubisky is marked improvement in his short passes and minimal improvement on his deep passes. He seems very good at the shuffle type passes and RPO plays but, he is below average on sideline throws and throws when his receiver is wide open.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

58 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Now a critical element is how the pre-snap read determines what your progressions are going to be.

That was part of the review too.  Trubisky not recognizing what the defense was showing pre-snap especially within the front seven.  In one instance he failed to notice an LB showing blitz on his right and should have slid Howard over to cover but instead went with the snap and dangerously tossed the ball over the rusher and in the general direction of the receiver.  

Sure time will help all this but we still see careless throws, like Lemon said, to the mid and long range passes.  Which often are affected by his mid-reads.   

[adam]

National media does not like Trubisky, ranked 26th on NFL.com:

 

[AZ54]

4 hours ago, adam said:

National media does not like Trubisky, ranked 26th on NFL.com:

 

Nothing unusual there.  Look at the offensive stats anyway you want and Bears are right around top 10.    9th in pts per game, 10th in yards per game,  11th in Offensive DVOA.  Of course our Oline is great (not).   WRs?  Trubisky has done this while missing Anthony Miller for a couple games or he's at least played in a very limited fashion.  Allen Robinson missed the last game and saw limited snaps the previous game.  His #2 TE Shaheen hasn't even seen the field this year.  

As fans we're a hyper-critical bunch but there's zero chance the offense runs this well with the 27th best QB in the NFL.  This guy is simply an idiot.  Here's the excuses for players ahead of Trubisky:

 

"Tennessee's run-run-drop approach on offense and Mariota's adjustment to Matt LaFleur's system has led to him holding the ball too long in the pocket and struggling with when to deploy his running skills."

(Trubisky apparently needed no such adjustment to his new WRs and new system.)  

"Winston finished the game against the Browns as if his entire career in Tampa depended on it and he couldn't handle the weight. Four interceptions in Cincinnati later, his Bucs career may indeed be over. "  

"In the first two of those losses, Mayfield played better than his numbers showed. "   (numbers don't matter...now I get it)

"Carr will light up an opponent if he's protected well like he was against the Colts in Week 8, although that's true for the majority of players on this list. Carr has thrown two more interceptions under pressure, however, than anyone in football, according to PFF, despite rarely being pressured compared to his competition."    (maybe it's that new offense he's dealing with)

 

I'd put Trubisky around 20th overall.  He's showing signs of moving into the top 15 and he'll easily be there if he can improve his consistency.  

 

[eback]

I noticed at the Bills game that Trubisky over threw his receivers when he planted his feet and stepped up probably. His most impressive and accurate throws came running or off his back foot. I don’t know if it’s been like that all season but I hope someone else notices that  

[adam]

12 hours ago, eback said:

I noticed at the Bills game that Trubisky over threw his receivers when he planted his feet and stepped up probably. His most impressive and accurate throws came running or off his back foot. I don’t know if it’s been like that all season but I hope someone else notices that  

He has been a lot less accurate lately, can't tell what exactly is going on. He has had several over throws a game to mostly wide open receivers. After last year, he probably doesn't believe what he sees.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 hour ago, adam said:

He has been a lot less accurate lately, can't tell what exactly is going on. He has had several over throws a game to mostly wide open receivers. After last year, he probably doesn't believe what he sees.

I agree (in terms of his accuracy). I didn't think it was that bad in the "Bills" game (that was just a really odd game). He hit some huge throws in that 1st quarter and than I presume got extra "careful" given the big lead.  That throw to Burton certainly was a WTF throw. Those will happen.  

The game before that was the "windy" game and we were taking some big shots down field, which aren't going to help the percentages given those conditions. I'd put that as an incomplete.

Bottom line he knows he needs to clean-up his mechanics and footwork and some of that will happen more as things continue to slow down and some of it probably takes an off-season of progress. The biggest thing to me is mentally the dude seems to get it and is making a lot of progress. The other crazy thing is just how good the NFL QB's are these days. Mitch has a pretty high QB rating (from a historical perspective), yet its very pedestrian in this current NFL.  

[eback]

I don’t think it’s his footwork though. He is more accurate when not planeted properly. Is that easier or harder to fix? I’ve never seen that scenario before. 

[AZ54]

The good throws when he's off-platform are when he stops thinking and just plays the game.  Being too deliberate with his throws was a common issue for him very early in the season.  You could see he was more trying to place the ball than just throwing it out there.  That can also come from not being certain how the receivers are going to run the route and being uncomfortable with the timing of the play.  HIs footwork though is still an issue at times and has led to some errant throws, even on short passes.  I worry less about those things because over time and with experience it is correctable.  Bad reads into triple coverage in the endzone?  I don't want to keep seeing flashbacks to the Cutler era.  

As I said before when looking at the list of things he had to improve upon at the beginning of the season starting with snaps under center, calling protections, knowing when to change plays at the LOS, throws to his left, reading defenses pre and post snap,  knowing when to step up in the pocket vs. when to run,  throws downfield, throwing multiple TDs per game, and I"m sure there are more,  he's come a long way in just 8 games.  

[Mongo3451]

Trubisky's QBR is 7th, passer rating 19th, completion pct 14th and a 16-7 TD-INT ratio.  Not too shabby.

[AZ54]

Trubisky is starting to breakdown the complex defensive coverages.  

https://www.bleachernation.com/bears/2018/11/08/week-9-video-room-mitch-trubisky-is-starting-to-take-to-matt-nagys-coaching/

[Alaskan Grizzly]

The stat line and rankings on Trubiksy across all forms of media are all over the map.  Some have him 22nd overall, some have him in the top 10 QBs under the age of 25, some have him ranked right near Eli Manning and others I’m sure rank him the overall #1 QB currently in the NFL out of North Carolina.  (Ok so I made that last one up).  The thing of it is, sure he’s making some improvements but I’m not sure they’re as obvious as some of us are hoping or claiming.  One thing we know he’s improving is rushing. And yes that, by itself, is helping our offense.  However that’s a finite skill set because as some here have pointed out if you go down with a knee injury like say a Deshaun Watson what have you got to fall back on? 

Yes Trub is making incremental improvement in some of the other skills needed to make a good QB.  There is plenty he still needs to learn and accomplish, by himself, before he’s recognized across forms of stats as a solid top 10 overall QB.  

Troy Aikman was recently talking about how Marcus Mariota although a highly sought after QB still has yet to piece together a consistent winning record.  He said Mariota will occasionally put together a great win like he did a few nights ago on Monday night but usually he just leaves us wanting.  I see Trubiksy somewhere in between Mariota and last year’s Goff.  The question is after some time in this system will he make the leap like Goff did or stagnate like Mariota has been?  

[adam]

23/30, 76.7%, 355 yds, 3-0, 148.6 Rating, most yards for his career, best Comp% this year and no INTs. He also ran for a TD. 

17 TD - 4 INT in last 6 games. 

[eback]

1 hour ago, adam said:

23/30, 76.7%, 355 yds, 3-0, 148.6 Rating, most yards for his career, best Comp% this year and no INTs. He also ran for a TD. 

17 TD - 4 INT in last 6 games. 

Not too shabby 

[Bill]

One of the best things I seem to notice as time goes on.  He looks thru his progressions and throws the ball to the correct receiver.  Not always a good throw but he is making better and better choices.  That is only a good thing.  The mechanics are something he should improve on with time

 

 

[AZ54]

6 hours ago, adam said:

23/30, 76.7%, 355 yds, 3-0, 148.6 Rating, most yards for his career, best Comp% this year and no INTs. He also ran for a TD. 

17 TD - 4 INT in last 6 games. 

Based on QB Rating, which has it's demerits, Trubisky is now ranked in the top 10 NFL QBs with a 101.6 rating for 2018.   He is ahead of Newton, Roethlisberger, Watson, Rodgers, Luck, Brady, Stafford, Carr, Dalton, Garropolo (limited stats), Mariota, and Prescott.   I'm not saying he's a top 10 Qb, but on that list there are many QBs who have been paid a ton of money.  He's played just 17 games in the NFL and he's not getting much help from the running game.  I don't know how the national media can keep putting him at 28th best in the NFL.  

 

[BearFan2000]

If he keeps up the pace he's on and continues to improve the national media won't be able to ignore him for much longer.  But watching the games lately you can tell the announcers taking notice of how well he's been playing.  It sure is nice to watch a Bears game and hear announcers coming even remotely close to gushing over a Bears QB.  Yesterday was possibly Trubiskey's best most complete performance that I've seen.  I've seen stretches and flashes of the potential we all hoped he'd show.  But what jumped out at me yesterday was it feels like we are finally starting to see the offense begin to look like what many had envisioned or hoped it would look like when we added the weapons we did and the new coaching staff last off season.  Since the Jets game it looks like Trubiskey is playing more and more under control it looks like the game is starting to slow down for him.  As Bill noted you can see him going through the progressions and more often than not throwing to the right guy.  I also felt his long ball was much better yesterday.  I only recall few overthrows.  Perhaps the timing is getting better.  We had a lot more plays of 20+ yards (explosive plays) than we've had to this point.  If we start making more of those chunk plays with regularity this will be a hard offense to stop.  With the talent we have on D if we keep jumping out to leads our D can just pin their ears back and go after teams.  

[Bill]

And the receivers are getting open more and more.  I'm not used to seeing receivers so wild open.  I always wonder why some teams could do that and the Bears seldom seemed able.  Now I understand.  Scheme, coaching and athletic players.  What a difference.