We haven't done one of these in awhile.

With the current cap situation, the team can't afford to pay Floyd $13.2M for that production, especially with Mack's new money kicking in. You just can't put that much money into a position group like that unless both are Pro Bowlers, which Floyd is not. If they do, it's a huge mistake. I think they are looking for trade partners and if they can't find one, Floyd will be cut. 

Just look at Atlanta, they let Beasley go (who had 8 sacks) and only a few years removed from when he had 15 sacks, yet the Bears are going to keep Floyd for that price for 3 sacks? 

I went with the trade option and would say 1a is cut, like what you outlined.  Still intrigued by the concept of having JPL as an end rusher.  But like you said, there are players like Beasley out there too who could easily outproduce Floyd.

Speaking of cast offs...heard rumors that Fangio might be interested in bringing Amukamara over to help his D out. What's to say he might not be interested in adding Floyd as a rotational player?  Not sure how the price tag would affect that but they are familiar with one another.  

I'm in the camp that says extend him for 3 years (really the 5th year option plus 2 with 3 year being a throwaway if we want).  He gets more guaranteed money we get a bit of stability and lower cap hit.  He gets to play opposite Mack and Hicks which gives him his best opportunity to shine as a rusher and he'll easily be young enough to capture that big money deal on the next contract if he earns it.  

Since that was not an option I chose the trade and Pace takes whatever he can get.  This also assumes Pace goes after a FA to take his place.  

I think he runs the course, plays out the deal and then isn't re-signed.

2 hours ago, AZ54 said:

I'm in the camp that says extend him for 3 years (really the 5th year option plus 2 with 3 year being a throwaway if we want).  He gets more guaranteed money we get a bit of stability and lower cap hit.  He gets to play opposite Mack and Hicks which gives him his best opportunity to shine as a rusher and he'll easily be young enough to capture that big money deal on the next contract if he earns it.  

Since that was not an option I chose the trade and Pace takes whatever he can get.  This also assumes Pace goes after a FA to take his place.  

I had two extensions listed, I just put a random term in there, I probably should not have. Essentially one extension keeps him at the same price for longer and one extension is where he takes a paycut.

Upon further review, found this article on Floyd’s marketability.  It makes a compelling case to try and keep him.

https://beargoggleson.com/2020/01/07/chicago-bears-finding-a-market-for-leonard-floyd/

58 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Upon further review, found this article on Floyd’s marketability.  It makes a compelling case to try and keep him.

https://beargoggleson.com/2020/01/07/chicago-bears-finding-a-market-for-leonard-floyd/

It's why I like the middle ground.  

That's a pretty good article but the author actually contradicts his recommendations with those examples.

My thought is, if Floyd was a 3rd round pick, he would not be on the team anymore, or would not be expecting north of $10M a year. $13M is crazy money for him. We just don't have the cap for that if we are trying to compete in 2020. Also, just note as you are seeing the players listed, none of them were across from Mack, Watt, or Miller like Floyd was.

Here is my take on the players they talked about:

1. First, it's funny they used Lawson because he is the best example for the Bears as the Bills declined his 5th-year option last year (same draft class as Floyd) AND are allowing him to walk after his 4th season. The Bears accepted Floyd's last year and now have to make the decision on his 5th year this year. As much as I don't want to pay Floyd, I wouldn't pay Lawson either. Neither are elite Edge guys or even league average for that matter. So this one supports the position of dumping Floyd instead of paying him. 

2. Golden is a bad example, or only one if you want to make a case to support a different argument. He is on his second team, in a completely different system and was starting regularly for the first time (never had more than 11 starts until this year). The best part, in a fraction of the games started, Golden has put up similar numbers than Floyd. Again, if you use this example, you pay Golden, not Floyd. 

3. Irvin? He was on the Seahawks defense when it was ridiculous and they didn't have the money to sign him, so he was the odd man out. Every year since leaving SEA he has had at least 6.5 sacks. So I don't know what the relation is to Floyd's situation. Floyd had 3 sacks this year and has only had more than 4.5 once (his rookie year). Why would you pay Floyd more than what Irvin got from OAK ($9.25M/AV), even in today's cap dollars, I am not paying Floyd that kind of money for half the production.

4. Smith, I get he is an Edge player, and was coming off a rookie deal, but he had 8.5 sacks in limited duty in BAL (which projected to over 10 in full duty - he ended with 13.5). So how does Floyd's 3 little sacks relate to Smith? Smith is closer to Mack than he is to Floyd. That one is silly. Smith got $16.5M, Floyd doesn't even deserve half of that.

5. Dee Ford? He had 10 sacks in his 3rd year, then got hurt and basically missed the entire 2017 season. In 2018, his last with KC he had 13 sacks, but then dropped off to 6.5 in limited time with SF. So this makes me think that the author wants us to pick up Floyd's option only because Ford had a great 5th year, but then in the same paragraph says buyer beware if you want to sign him long term.

The author seems to think it is wise to accept Floyd's $13M or extend him at $11M a year. 

Quote

It makes sense that the Bears want to hold onto Floyd for year five. Pass rushers are rare to find, and even the average ones see huge pay days. In many cases pass rushers take time to excel, and most of these cases, the best year of their career came in year five or later.

Attempting to extend Floyd could be worthwhile, but only at the $11 million per year average. However, the best case could be letting him prove himself on the option and taking your chances on him having a great year and seeing what will happen from there.

Floyd had every opportunity to earn $13M in his 5th-year option or even a long term extension by producing across from Mack this year, no injuries, etc, and he didn't show up. Now we are going to double down on him doing it this year? I would rather let him walk, get a more productive guy (for less) AND then potentially get a comp pick if Floyd does sign a big deal somewhere else. 

Just so we are tracking, Floyd currently has the 44th highest defensive player cap hit for 2020. He would move down after free agency, but not by much. With 32 teams, that puts him as the 2nd most valuable player on a team, Leonard Floyd was probably 9th or 10th on the Bears. For Edge players, that put Floyd 18th, again if you use 32 teams, he would be paid like a #1 Edge guy. The #2 Edge guys (paid between 33-64) make between $3M and $8.3M. 123 players had more sacks in 2019 than Floyd. To me, it's easy math. If you offer him anything, it's no more than $8.5M a year. That gives the team close to $5M in cap savings to re-sign or sign other players. 

I think 7 to 8 mil is his value . We need more pass rush from someone and it is supposed to be Floyd.  I  am all for getting rid of him but get me a replacement first. We don't have a high enough pick to guarantee a rookie starts.  I don't think we have enough cap space to grab the best pass rushers in free agency. I don't think their going to let him go without a replacement in place.  We will see what they can do. I'm for keeping him and add some situational players but at 8 mil.

3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I think 7 to 8 mil is his value . We need more pass rush from someone and it is supposed to be Floyd.  I  am all for getting rid of him but get me a replacement first. We don't have a high enough pick to guarantee a rookie starts.  I don't think we have enough cap space to grab the best pass rushers in free agency. I don't think their going to let him go without a replacement in place.  We will see what they can do. I'm for keeping him and add some situational players but at 8 mil.

I agree with the value assessment, and with the early extension we usually end up paying more than I'd like to see.  Even if he lands at $9mil/yr average (depending on guarantee), we'd likely be in a better spot. 

I used to think it was TE but I know think OLB is the position to watch for with our first pick in Rd 2.  It's quite likely a good player falls to us.  TE value extends into Rd 3/4 as does WR value.    

I think we all need to keep in mind that with Floyd on the field we had a top 5 defense.  That's even when he was working through a broken hand that really hindered his ability.  He's a more complete player than it seems since the focus tends to be on sacks.  It's impossible to be confident in our offense so if we're to get back to the playoffs it will again be on the strength of our defense.  

 

 

 

 

10 hours ago, AZ54 said:

I think we all need to keep in mind that with Floyd on the field we had a top 5 defense.  That's even when he was working through a broken hand that really hindered his ability.  He's a more complete player than it seems since the focus tends to be on sacks.  It's impossible to be confident in our offense so if we're to get back to the playoffs it will again be on the strength of our defense.  

That top 5 defense seemed to revolve around Hicks than anyone else. When he went down, we saw the biggest dip. I don't think you would even know when Floyd was not in there. I am not opposed to bringing him back, but it has to be at a price point that allows the team to have flexibility. At $13M the team doesn't have that.

9 hours ago, adam said:

That top 5 defense seemed to revolve around Hicks than anyone else. When he went down, we saw the biggest dip. I don't think you would even know when Floyd was not in there. I am not opposed to bringing him back, but it has to be at a price point that allows the team to have flexibility. At $13M the team doesn't have that.

I don't disagree at all but there were other injuries and issues with Roquan, Trevathan, and Nichols that played into that as well.  Nobody was missed as much as Akiem.

I kinda hope they extend him to team friendly deal.  He is not bad out there and has shown ability in a game or two against GB to get to the QB. Is there a stat or has anybody tracked him how often his responsiblity is to go for the sack?  If they cannot reach an extension, they have to try and trade him. Cutting him and paying the one year are both bad.

Last year we were 8th in defense without Hicks, Smith missing some games, no Trevathan.  2 new starters on D and one of the league's worst offenses.  We will have at least 3 new starters this year at S, CB and ILB.  We need to keep as much of this together as much as possible. 

On 2/27/2020 at 8:00 PM, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I kinda hope they extend him to team friendly deal.  He is not bad out there and has shown ability in a game or two against GB to get to the QB. Is there a stat or has anybody tracked him how often his responsiblity is to go for the sack?  If they cannot reach an extension, they have to try and trade him. Cutting him and paying the one year are both bad.

Here are the snap counts and sacks:

Floyd - 916 snaps - 3 sacks
RRH - 552 snaps - 2.5 sacks
Williams - 540 snaps - 6 snaps
Kwit - 518 snaps - 3 sacks
Lynch - 249 snaps - 2 sacks

Lynch technically is a better pass rusher than Floyd. Even if Floyd dropped into coverage some, he only had one more sack in over 650 snaps than Lynch, that's insane. 

https://www.si.com/nfl/bears/news/how-bears-can-continue-backing-leonard-floyd

This seems to give a little more optimism from the teams view on Floyd.  I still believe it comes down to an extension.  He needs to land more sacks for sure, but the team as a whole fell off there last year too.  That is part of a result of not giving the defense a lead to take more risks. Find a way to spread out his contract, use our capital to fill openings, not create more, and keep investing in offense so we can get that part right for once.  

Openings: RG, ILB, SS, CB

Positions to upgrade: OT, TE, QB, speed WR

Positions to reinvest, depth/competition: OLB, RB, DT

We will see how Pace plans to attack these positions in a few weeks. OLB all depends on an extension, but rotation depth is still needed.

Looks like Floyd might be gone, it will be an interesting decision and will certainly impact other decisions: 

 

 

I thinking they went to him with a new deal and he doesn't like it.  So now he may be gone. 

Heard a trade scenario involving Floyd today.  It was Floyd for Trent Williams and Alex Smith.

2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Heard a trade scenario involving Floyd today.  It was Floyd for Trent Williams and Alex Smith.

Color me intrigued.  

2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Heard a trade scenario involving Floyd today.  It was Floyd for Trent Williams and Alex Smith.

If they trade or release Floyd, they will have an expensive hole to fill. The FA pool is empty, that is why teams are lining up to pounce.  If a team trades, the draft is also bare meaning they might need to make a move up to get the 3rd or 4th ranked player.  

I have no beef with Floyd and his agent knowing this and using the leverage to their advantage.  The Bears are in poor position right now (pay the 13 million ransom, trade him and hopefully get some value, or cut him and take the loss)

There are a few decent FA options with a lot more production than Floyd. Shaq Barrett (TB), Bud Dupree (PIT) and Markus Golden (NYG) are a few Edge Rushers making $4M per year now who are set to get raises, but blew away Floyd in terms of production. If you are going to give up $13M, are you going to give it to Floyd, or one of them?  Barrett led the NFL with 19.5, Dupree had 11.5 (T-9) and Golden had 10 (T-15). All 3 would have led the Bears in sacks. Barrett had more sacks than Mack, Floyd, Lynch, and Irving combined. Dupree seems like he would be the best value, I would curious to see if he could be picked up for less than what Floyd would get.

 

I'll take Vic Beasley

1 minute ago, Mongo3451 said:

I'll take Vic Beasley

Him too or Barrett.  Either would be an upgrade.  
 

And/or try KPL off the edge.