Draft Slot Tracker (thru Week 15)

[Stinger226]

The key game left is Denver at the Rams. They are in LA, dont have anything to play for but players playing for jobs may be inspiration enough. Denver has a decent defense but chances are they lose to Rams. That leaves us tied with Denver for wins. We could win 2 games in the next 4 which would not be good. I hope Minny is in the position to have to win that will help our last game. We are in Detroit so that helps the Lions but that is a winnable game. Our D sucks so hopefully they lack improvement going forward. 

How would you guys feel if we won the last 4 games? Brisker and Gordon will be back, Fields is capable of blowing up any game and Herbert might be back. If we won the last 4 games that would mean the OL has improved considerably , the D found a somewhat pass rush and Sanborn keeps killing it. That would be so Bear like. 

[adam]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

The key game left is Denver at the Rams. They are in LA, dont have anything to play for but players playing for jobs may be inspiration enough. Denver has a decent defense but chances are they lose to Rams. That leaves us tied with Denver for wins. We could win 2 games in the next 4 which would not be good. I hope Minny is in the position to have to win that will help our last game. We are in Detroit so that helps the Lions but that is a winnable game. Our D sucks so hopefully they lack improvement going forward. 

How would you guys feel if we won the last 4 games? Brisker and Gordon will be back, Fields is capable of blowing up any game and Herbert might be back. If we won the last 4 games that would mean the OL has improved considerably , the D found a somewhat pass rush and Sanborn keeps killing it. That would be so Bear like. 

There is no way we are beating BUF or PHI. DET has a stacked offense and we have a terrible defense. MIN is probably the only winnable game if they rest starters. 

[lemonej]

Baker Mayfield helped the Bears chances for a top 3 pick better.

[lemonej]

On 12/4/2022 at 5:30 PM, DABEARSDABOMB said:

The outcome was good - fields had his best passing game - despite 2 picks, but they lost. 
 

Now let’s hope Rams can somehow pull one out.

You got this wish! Come on Broncos!

[AZ54]

Another QB enters the fray.  I have no idea if he's a top 10 talent.  If the physical talent is there I'd expect him to be more of a late 1st Rd option for teams considering the lengthy development work he'll need.  However, if the debate becomes Richardson or Will Levis for 3rd QB that could drive up his value.  The more QBs who can go in the top 10 the better for us if we trade down in the 1st.  

https://www.profootballrumors.com/2022/12/florida-qb-anthony-richardson-declares-for-draft

"On the other hand, three NFL scouts reportedly said this week that “they expect (Richardson) to be a top-10 draft pick come April,” according to Jason Cole of OutKick.com.

[BearFan PHX]

cuts both ways, if there are more talented QBs available, some teams might prefer to wait for one to drop to them.

[AZ54]

1 minute ago, BearFan PHX said:

cuts both ways, if there are more talented QBs available, some teams might prefer to wait for one to drop to them.

In theory yes, but I can't remember the last time supply was greater than demand.  

[BearFan PHX]

14 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

In theory yes, but I can't remember the last time supply was greater than demand.  

LOL well said. Good QBs are always needed.

But then again, We got Fields at 11, and the Chiefs got Mahomes at 10. So teams do wait for QBs to fall in draft years where there are more than 2 good ones available.

The draft is always foggy. Im glad we have our QB now.

[scs787]

2 hours ago, AZ54 said:

In theory yes, but I can't remember the last time supply was greater than demand.  

That's a good question. 

Houston for sure, but they're somewhat irrelevant.  They have 2 top 15 picks. Their 2nd pick from Cleveland is currently 13th. It'd be pretty crazy if they fell in love with Will Anderson and a QB and decided to jump back up to 2. I think pick 15 is where I start saying no dice. 

Indy absolutely should be drafting a QB. Their 1 year retread run has got to end. 

Atlanta should be looking to upgrade from Mariotta. He's not bad bad, but he's not someone who's gonna take you anywhere. 

Carolina? PJ Walker and Sam Darnold probably ain't it. 

Pittsburgh? I think they SHOULD draft one, but I wouldn't be surprised if they wanna give Pickett a 2nd year. 

Detroit and Seattle are interesting. Goff has been able to put up a lot of points there in Detroit bit is he really a franchise QB? Is Geno Smith a flash in the pan? 

Raiders could be a wild card. I'm a Carr fan and I don't think they should move on, bit he's been highly disappointing this year given the fact they added Adams for him. 

 

Do you drop even further and talk with teams like Washington,  Tampa, and the Jets? 

[BearFan PHX]

23 minutes ago, scs787 said:

That's a good question. 

Houston for sure, but they're somewhat irrelevant.  They have 2 top 15 picks. Their 2nd pick from Cleveland is currently 13th. It'd be pretty crazy if they fell in love with Will Anderson and a QB and decided to jump back up to 2. I think pick 15 is where I start saying no dice. 

Indy absolutely should be drafting a QB. Their 1 year retread run has got to end. 

Atlanta should be looking to upgrade from Mariotta. He's not bad bad, but he's not someone who's gonna take you anywhere. 

Carolina? PJ Walker and Sam Darnold probably ain't it. 

Pittsburgh? I think they SHOULD draft one, but I wouldn't be surprised if they wanna give Pickett a 2nd year. 

Detroit and Seattle are interesting. Goff has been able to put up a lot of points there in Detroit bit is he really a franchise QB? Is Geno Smith a flash in the pan? 

Raiders could be a wild card. I'm a Carr fan and I don't think they should move on, bit he's been highly disappointing this year given the fact they added Adams for him. 

 

Do you drop even further and talk with teams like Washington,  Tampa, and the Jets? 

I agree, we don't want to fall too far, we need a dominant DL player. There are probably 3 or 4 of them, some better than others. So trades down to #15 are too far for us - I agree. Unless we are targeting the WR from TCU? But I dont think so.

However, you can do the math for trading up, and sometimes even having that other team (that you dont want to drop too far in the draft order for) in the bidding still gives you leverage on the price the team you ARE willing to trade with will have to pay. In that sense, having another good QB declare at best is neutral for us, and at worst, affects the value of our pick somewhat?

Even worse though, is that the NFL Sunday Ticket is probably moving from DirectTV, their contract is up this year. And whether they keep it or not, there will be a bidding war, probably between Apple and Amazon. That means the salary cap is likely to move up significantly. And unfortunately, that weakens the value of our huge cap dollars vs other teams this offseason.

I think the best way to calculate that is to take the current Bears cap space for 2023, and divide it by the total 2023 cap space of all teams together, and you get a percentage. The Bears have 7% of the available cap room, or something like that.

Anytime you add more money equally to each teams available cap room, that Bears' percentage (and our leverage in the market) goes down. Teams will be able to resign players they would have had to lose.

Also, Poles has something up his sleeve to get us a true #1 WR, but I gotta say, I dont really see it. Who is the player in the draft or Free agency who will be a true #1 WR for 2023?

I guess we can see why Poles was willing to go so high for Claypool.
 

[Stinger226]

I think Poles big move for a WR was for Claypool. The only other FA WR next yr that comes close to his equal would be JuJu and Jakobi Meyers. If he wanted he could sign either one of them. 

The draft is still a question mark as far as who is the best WR. right now Quentin Johnston is ranked between 10-15  spot that would be available when we draft. This class is not considered strong at WR. There is only 3  with potential first round grades.

Quentin Johnston, Jordon Addison, J S-N (Ohio State)

Unless we trade back I dont see Poles taking a WR with our first pick, so all of them could be gone by our second pick. 

I think he will be adding a WR but not early in the draft. 

We could be looking at Mooney, Claypool, V Jones, rookie, and two of these, Pringle-Pettis-Harry-ESB as our WR group.

[adam]

CAR and JAX both won bumping them up to 5 wins, so that basically makes it a 5 team race for pick #2. DEN almost beat KC and still plays ARZ and LAR.  ARZ plays NE tonight, then DEN. LAR still plays DEN and SEA (who lost to CAR). NO still plays ATL, CLE, and CAR. So all these teams have winnable games.

The Bears have PHI, BUF, DET, and MIN, 3X 10 win teams and DET who has won 5 of 6. The Bears can play good and still lose all 4. 

2. DEN 3-10  ARZ    @LAR    @KC    LAC 
3. CHI 3-10   PHI    BUF    @DET    MIN 
-----------------------------------------------
4. LAR 4-9    @GB    DEN     @LAC    @SEA
5. NO 4-9     ATL     @CLE    @PHI   CAR
6. ARZ 4-8    NE    @DEN    TB    @ATL    @SF

I still think DEN wins one more somewhere. LAR with Mayfield may actually win a few. NO has played well and lost and should've beaten TB. ARZ is hard to gauge, but they should win at least one more.

Regardless, the Bears seem locked in between picks 2 and 3. 

[Stinger226]

30 minutes ago, adam said:

CAR and JAX both won bumping them up to 5 wins, so that basically makes it a 5 team race for pick #2. DEN almost beat KC and still plays ARZ and LAR.  ARZ plays NE tonight, then DEN. LAR still plays DEN and SEA (who lost to CAR). NO still plays ATL, CLE, and CAR. So all these teams have winnable games.

The Bears have PHI, BUF, DET, and MIN, 3X 10 win teams and DET who has won 5 of 6. The Bears can play good and still lose all 4. 

2. DEN 3-10  ARZ    @LAR    @KC    LAC 
3. CHI 3-10   PHI    BUF    @DET    MIN 
-----------------------------------------------
4. LAR 4-9    @GB    DEN     @LAC    @SEA
5. NO 4-9     ATL     @CLE    @PHI   CAR
6. ARZ 4-8    NE    @DEN    TB    @ATL    @SF

I still think DEN wins one more somewhere. LAR with Mayfield may actually win a few. NO has played well and lost and should've beaten TB. ARZ is hard to gauge, but they should win at least one more.

Regardless, the Bears seem locked in between picks 2 and 3. 

The problem now is Wilson was hurt in the KC/ Denver game. Not sure how that affects them going forward.

With us getting some injured players back, as long as Fields is QBing, we are capable of winning all four games, highly unlikely. For sure Minny and Detroit is beatable.  Remember that Philly lost to Wash, not known as a juggernaut. 

[adam]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

The problem now is Wilson was hurt in the KC/ Denver game. Not sure how that affects them going forward.

With us getting some injured players back, as long as Fields is QBing, we are capable of winning all four games, highly unlikely. For sure Minny and Detroit is beatable.  Remember that Philly lost to Wash, not known as a juggernaut. 

Wilson has been terrible. Any QB would be an upgrade.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Wilson has been terrible. Any QB would be an upgrade.

Arguably played his best game and got hurt.

[adam]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

Arguably played his best game and got hurt.

It was more like a 5 minute span. 16 plays in 3 drives. It was a crazy spurt, but outside of those drives, he has been one of the worst QBs in the league. Before that game, he only had 1 game with 2 TDs, and 10 games with 1 or 0 TDs.

He is 27th in QBR, only Mac Jones, Mills, Wentz, and Mayfield have been worse.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Seeing what can be had when trading down twice.  Got two 2024 1st Rd picks and 5 game day contributors.  Bring in DT Payne, a Center, and CB and it might be enough to contend.

 

 

NFL MOCK DRATOR

MORE ANALYSIS AT PROFOOTBALLNETWORK.COM

 

 

• 
  19.
  Isaiah Foskey

  EDGE Notre Dame
  
• 
  39.
  Jahmyr Gibbs

  RB Alabama
  
• 
  57.
  Darnell Wright

  OT Tennessee
   
• 
  58.
  Jalin Hyatt

  WR Tennessee
  
• 
  66.
  Brandon Joseph

  S Notre Dame
   
• 
  82.
  Sam LaPorta

  TE Iowa
  
• 
  101.
  Byron Young

  DT Alabama
   
• 
  131.
  Olusegun Oluwatimi

  OC Michigan
   
• 
  134.
  Jaren Hall

  QB BYU
   
• 
  156.
  Mike Morris

  EDGE Michigan
   
• 
  198.
  Cameron Mitchell

  CB Northwestern
   
• 2024 CAR 1st
• 2024 TB 1st

 

[adam]

On 12/9/2022 at 9:58 AM, lemonej said:

Baker Mayfield helped the Bears chances for a top 3 pick better.

He did and he can go beat GB on MNF to knock them out of the playoffs. As long as Donald and Ramsey play, they should win.

[Stinger226]

9 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Seeing what can be had when trading down twice.  Got two 2024 1st Rd picks and 5 game day contributors.  Bring in DT Payne, a Center, and CB and it might be enough to contend.

 

 

NFL MOCK DRATOR

MORE ANALYSIS AT PROFOOTBALLNETWORK.COM

 

 

• 
  19.
  Isaiah Foskey

  EDGE Notre Dame
  
• 
  39.
  Jahmyr Gibbs

  RB Alabama
  
• 
  57.
  Darnell Wright

  OT Tennessee
   
• 
  58.
  Jalin Hyatt

  WR Tennessee
  
• 
  66.
  Brandon Joseph

  S Notre Dame
   
• 
  82.
  Sam LaPorta

  TE Iowa
  
• 
  101.
  Byron Young

  DT Alabama
   
• 
  131.
  Olusegun Oluwatimi

  OC Michigan
   
• 
  134.
  Jaren Hall

  QB BYU
   
• 
  156.
  Mike Morris

  EDGE Michigan
   
• 
  198.
  Cameron Mitchell

  CB Northwestern
   
• 2024 CAR 1st
• 2024 TB 1st

 

I liked all of it but dont think Poles drafts a RB at 39. He will be bringing Monty back and we have Herbert. He will  be filling  other needs. We are leading the league in rushing with 2 good RBs, no way he grabs one that high.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

6 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I liked all of it but dont think Poles drafts a RB at 39. He will be bringing Monty back and we have Herbert. He will  be filling  other needs. We are leading the league in rushing with 2 good RBs, no way he grabs one that high.

I do not see Monty coming back unless he comes cheap.  I am not afraid to spend a 2nd on a RB if they are game changer.  Finding a playmaker at RB might be easier this year then WR.  I like Herbert to take the lead but Gibbs can take the reins and be more of a threat.   I want a WR and RB that put fear in a D like Fields can.  

 

[adam]

Thank you Cleveland for beating Baltimore. 

[Stinger226]

2 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I do not see Monty coming back unless he comes cheap.  I am not afraid to spend a 2nd on a RB if they are game changer.  Finding a playmaker at RB might be easier this year then WR.  I like Herbert to take the lead but Gibbs can take the reins and be more of a threat.   I want a WR and RB that put fear in a D like Fields can.  

 

Im not saying any drafted RB would not be better than what we have, but think he will draft one later in the draft. When building a team, I dont think Poles invests in a position that was our biggest strength. There are a ton of RBs in FAgency this yr. Monty will have no choice but to sign back here at a reasonable rate. I think Flus likes the leadership, physically that he brings to the table. I think we are still first in rushing in the league. With that high of a pick in the draft as you projected HE AINT GRABBING A RB. I suspect if he adds one , it will be in the 4th round where we have two 4th round picks. FAgency will be before the draft wo we will know if Monty is back here or not.

[killakrzydav]

Goodness, no Rbs that early

[adam]

Bears lose, Broncos winning. Could lock in #2 pick in an hour. 

[BearFan PHX]

11 minutes ago, adam said:

Bears lose, Broncos winning. Could lock in #2 pick in an hour. 

yeah but i dont see how the team we watched today could lose to both the Lions and the Vikings.