BearFan2000 Posted January 19 Report Share Posted January 19 When looking at these different big board mocks I wonder how many put Williams at #1 because they truly believe he should be the first overall pick or because they are simply following the hype. If we do move on from Justin and look to draft one I have my concerns about Williams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted January 19 Report Share Posted January 19 1 hour ago, jason said: I can't tell you how many friends of mine have called or texted to tell me they hope the Bears screw up, pick Williams, restart the cycle, and stay the perpetually bad Chicago Bears team. That's exactly how it feels. Starting over and over and over again. We may as well have kept Lovie Smith and accepted 9-7 every year. It's funny, all my buddies are asking if the Bears are gonna choke on Justin until we screw up a golden opportunity. I have a buddy(actually works for my wife) that used to play WR for Spurrier. He's been on me for supporting Justin the last two seasons. He never says too much, but I pinned him down on it. He says, 'he said ain't getting me the ball right". What? I'm like, why? "Too late in my route". That's why Drake Maye is my guy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 19 Report Share Posted January 19 On 1/15/2024 at 11:23 AM, ChileBear said: I now hope Jerry Jones has a melt down and trades the farm to move up for Caleb at no. 1. I am thinking Washington is going to do whatever it takes to get Caleb Williams. Besides the #2 pick, they have the Bears 2nd from the Sweat trade (#40) and their own 2nd at #36. They also have 2x 3rd round picks (#67 and #95 SF). This seems like a super safe move to ensure they get MHJ. I also don't think NE is going to be trading up. ARZ doesn't need a QB, so they will nab MHJ if he is on the board when they pick. If they don't care about MHJ, then they can obviously move down further to gain a future 1st rounder again. I could see WAS swapping from #2 to #1, but they would need to give up their own 2nd, their own 3rd, and a future 2nd at a minimum to move up. They may not have to give up a future 1st to get there. I know everyone, including me wants an extra 1st if we are trading down. The Bears moved up 1 spot for Trubisky 3 to 2, and SF got a current 3rd and 4th, and next year's 3rd to go from 2 to 3. Since 2 to 1 is a bigger leap, I could see a current 2nd, current 3rd, and a future 2nd at a minimum. This is me spitballing. That would give the Bears #2, #9, #36, #67, and #75 in the first 3 rounds. That's 5 starters, a WR, Edge, C, G or T, and S or TE. For me, that's the sweet spot. Come out of this draft with 5 picks in the first 3 rounds. Using the Rich Hill model, #1 is worth 1000, #2 is worth 717, #36 is worth 166, #67 is worth 75. That's 958 + 2025 2nd which is normally equal to half of the midround pick, Pick #48 is worth 121, so half is 60.5. 958+60.5=1018.5. That is well within range of realistic. Just say they gave the Bears #40 back instead of #36? Minus 17, now the trade = 1001.5. That is literally spot on. So between my spitball and the Rich Hill model, those are damn close to each other. In 2025, they would then have 3x 2nd round picks. So that would be 4 picks in the first 3 rounds. They could easily trade back on one of those 2nd's to recoup a 3rd rounder to have 5 in the first 3 next season. None of this includes potential 2x 3rd Round comp picks for Cunningham once he is hired away from the team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 19 Report Share Posted January 19 47 minutes ago, BearFan2000 said: When looking at these different big board mocks I wonder how many put Williams at #1 because they truly believe he should be the first overall pick or because they are simply following the hype. If we do move on from Justin and look to draft one I have my concerns about Williams. Most are scouting reports and the mock drafts fall out differently than the big boards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted January 19 Report Share Posted January 19 16 minutes ago, adam said: I am thinking Washington is going to do whatever it takes to get Caleb Williams. Besides the #2 pick, they have the Bears 2nd from the Sweat trade (#40) and their own 2nd at #36. They also have 2x 3rd round picks (#67 and #95 SF). This seems like a super safe move to ensure they get MHJ. I also don't think NE is going to be trading up. ARZ doesn't need a QB, so they will nab MHJ if he is on the board when they pick. If they don't care about MHJ, then they can obviously move down further to gain a future 1st rounder again. I could see WAS swapping from #2 to #1, but they would need to give up their own 2nd, their own 3rd, and a future 2nd at a minimum to move up. They may not have to give up a future 1st to get there. I know everyone, including me wants an extra 1st if we are trading down. The Bears moved up 1 spot for Trubisky 3 to 2, and SF got a current 3rd and 4th, and next year's 3rd to go from 2 to 3. Since 2 to 1 is a bigger leap, I could see a current 2nd, current 3rd, and a future 2nd at a minimum. This is me spitballing. That would give the Bears #2, #9, #36, #67, and #75 in the first 3 rounds. That's 5 starters, a WR, Edge, C, G or T, and S or TE. For me, that's the sweet spot. Come out of this draft with 5 picks in the first 3 rounds. Using the Rich Hill model, #1 is worth 1000, #2 is worth 717, #36 is worth 166, #67 is worth 75. That's 958 + 2025 2nd which is normally equal to half of the midround pick, Pick #48 is worth 121, so half is 60.5. 958+60.5=1018.5. That is well within range of realistic. Just say they gave the Bears #40 back instead of #36? Minus 17, now the trade = 1001.5. That is literally spot on. So between my spitball and the Rich Hill model, those are damn close to each other. In 2025, they would then have 3x 2nd round picks. So that would be 4 picks in the first 3 rounds. They could easily trade back on one of those 2nd's to recoup a 3rd rounder to have 5 in the first 3 next season. None of this includes potential 2x 3rd Round comp picks for Cunningham once he is hired away from the team. I don't think you get as much as you think to move one spot. Only stupid Ryan Pace does that. I agree with you. Flip 1 and 2, our second back, maybe#95 and a 2 next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucky Luciano Posted January 19 Report Share Posted January 19 19 hours ago, jason said: The Bears would be better off trading down, stock-piling picks, and building a team like the Cowboys did with the Herschel Walker trade. problem is... the cowboys used the #1 pick in the draft from that trade on the most important acquisition on their entire team... troy aikman, a QB. so much for that idea Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted January 19 Report Share Posted January 19 30 minutes ago, Lucky Luciano said: problem is... the cowboys used the #1 pick in the draft from that trade on the most important acquisition on their entire team... troy aikman, a QB. so much for that idea There is all kind of examples to show whatever narrative you wish to prove. If Williams is a tier one QB, I have no doubt we take him but no one knows that yet. As near as last year, A team took Bryce Young with that same thought. How did that work out? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted January 19 Report Share Posted January 19 39 minutes ago, Stinger226 said: As near as last year, A team took Bryce Young with that same thought. How did that work out? With this, you are making the same argument we've been making for Cutler, Trubisky and Fields for years. Bryce Young had shit for talent around him. When your go-to guy was cut from another mediocre team, you have major talent issues. Unless Young failed to do his film study or was a bad teammate, you absolutely cannot compare him to anyone yet. If we draft a QB this year, he will be entering a five star hotel, with a made bed and Swiss chocolate on the pillow. Bryce Young got thrown in a Motel 6 with bedbugs. Looking back at Aikman, he got murdered his first year in the league, but the foundation was firmly being laid. Dallas did it right. They may had won 5 more Superbowls if Jerry's ego didn't get in the way. We ruined Justin. Time to move on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted January 19 Report Share Posted January 19 Totally agree, Young may be good one day and it's exactly the scenario for Fields. Bad coaching and undone roster. That's why I think Poles may still be roster building. I think, he thinks, he is one year away from a grab the QB and run. Imo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucky Luciano Posted January 19 Report Share Posted January 19 27 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said: Looking back at Aikman, he got murdered his first year in the league, but the foundation was firmly being laid. Dallas did it right. They may had won 5 more Superbowls if Jerry's ego didn't get in the way. We ruined Justin. Time to move on. aikman was the cowboys actual #1 pick but the walker trade was an insane amount of draft capital to give up for a runningback. that put them in the drivers seat for talent. that said, it showed exactly what the top priority should be if you have that much draft capital. without the aikman pick the rest of the talent they picked up in my opinion wouldn't have won them three superbowl rings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted January 19 Report Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, Lucky Luciano said: aikman was the cowboys actual #1 pick but the walker trade was an insane amount of draft capital to give up for a runningback. that put them in the drivers seat for talent. that said, it showed exactly what the top priority should be if you have that much draft capital. without the aikman pick the rest of the talent they picked up in my opinion wouldn't have won them three superbowl rings. I agree with that but we have hindsight in that situation, if SF wins the SB what do people say with Brock Purdy as their QB? Or even Baltimore with the last pick in the first round. Nothing is absolute. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucky Luciano Posted January 19 Report Share Posted January 19 41 minutes ago, Stinger226 said: I agree with that but we have hindsight in that situation, if SF wins the SB what do people say with Brock Purdy as their QB? Or even Baltimore with the last pick in the first round. Nothing is absolute. it's NOT hindsight. it is reliable facts if you want to win multiple superbowls or at least put yourself in POSITION to win them every year consistently it is with elite first round qb's. griese, bradshaw, montana, young, aikman. elway, rogers, morino, even mahomes and then you have the anomalies like starr, favre, brady there are no sure things but as often as you get a chance to really choose a difference maker without mortgaging the farm you better be sure not to f- it up, even if your pick doesn't turn out, by hoping you can turn coal into a diamond. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 19 Report Share Posted January 19 1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said: With this, you are making the same argument we've been making for Cutler, Trubisky and Fields for years. Bryce Young had shit for talent around him. When your go-to guy was cut from another mediocre team, you have major talent issues. Unless Young failed to do his film study or was a bad teammate, you absolutely cannot compare him to anyone yet. If we draft a QB this year, he will be entering a five star hotel, with a made bed and Swiss chocolate on the pillow. Bryce Young got thrown in a Motel 6 with bedbugs. Looking back at Aikman, he got murdered his first year in the league, but the foundation was firmly being laid. Dallas did it right. They may had won 5 more Superbowls if Jerry's ego didn't get in the way. We ruined Justin. Time to move on. Fact or Fiction: Bryce Young had more passing yards in his rookie season on a terrible Panthers team than Justin Fields has had in any of his first 3 seasons? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jason Posted January 20 Report Share Posted January 20 On 1/19/2024 at 11:21 AM, Stinger226 said: There is all kind of examples to show whatever narrative you wish to prove. If Williams is a tier one QB, I have no doubt we take him but no one knows that yet. As near as last year, A team took Bryce Young with that same thought. How did that work out? Precisely. I’m a math guy and rolling the dice on one pick just doesn’t make sense unless you know 100% he’s legit. Which, of course, you don’t know. That kind of philosophy is how people go broke in real life. The Bears should approach the draft with a large cap mutual fund philosophy. Lots of good, fairly safe (i.e. dominant player from large, football heavy school with good measurables) is better than putting all your money on a roulette wheel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted January 20 Report Share Posted January 20 1 hour ago, jason said: That kind of philosophy is how people go broke in real life. That's also how people become Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos. If Poles loves a guy, he's ours. Doing your market analogy gives us a solid portfolio, so did Lovie. I don't want solid. I want Superbowls. We can can keep Justin and take in a shit ton of draft capital, win 9-11 games every season and never beat Jordan Love when it matters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted January 20 Report Share Posted January 20 On 1/19/2024 at 12:57 PM, adam said: Fact or Fiction: Bryce Young had more passing yards in his rookie season on a terrible Panthers team than Justin Fields has had in any of his first 3 seasons? ouch, and true. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted January 20 Report Share Posted January 20 4 hours ago, jason said: Precisely. I’m a math guy and rolling the dice on one pick just doesn’t make sense unless you know 100% he’s legit. Which, of course, you don’t know. That kind of philosophy is how people go broke in real life. The Bears should approach the draft with a large cap mutual fund philosophy. Lots of good, fairly safe (i.e. dominant player from large, football heavy school with good measurables) is better than putting all your money on a roulette wheel. the last team that won the Super Bowl that way was Trent Dilfer? Your analogy is for a monetary return. Your goal would be to safely increase the value of your portfolio with the lowest chance of bottoming out. So you're right about that for sure. But if your goal is to be the best out of 32 teams, then I think the math works differently? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChileBear Posted January 20 Report Share Posted January 20 8 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said: the last team that won the Super Bowl that way was Trent Dilfer? Your analogy is for a monetary return. Your goal would be to safely increase the value of your portfolio with the lowest chance of bottoming out. So you're right about that for sure. But if your goal is to be the best out of 32 teams, then I think the math works differently? Taking the QB at no one COULD work, Or COULDN'T. Trading and getting a ton now and then, if you have to, you can go after QB the next year with what you get in the trade. I'm agreeing with Jason on this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASHKUM BEAR Posted January 20 Report Share Posted January 20 35 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said: the last team that won the Super Bowl that way was Trent Dilfer? Your analogy is for a monetary return. Your goal would be to safely increase the value of your portfolio with the lowest chance of bottoming out. So you're right about that for sure. But if your goal is to be the best out of 32 teams, then I think the math works differently? Or look at it as the Chiefs took Mahomes at 10. I have seen Williams like tweets about the Bears selecting MHJ. It wasn't his sudo account that posted how he has 4 or 5 teams he would play for or stay in school either. If Williams or his dad liked that tweet, they have emotions to react in a destructive way about the Bears. I havent seen posts suggesting they would be happy about the Bears but i think i read on hear they have. Jalen Rose had his brother that hurt Jalen IMO. To become the best, the player and coaches need a multi year plan to grow that player. The Bears do not have offensive coaches yet. Talent alone will not succeed in the NFL. It takes a village of support and a good cast. The Bears defense has the right coaching and talent to bring in a rookie to thrive. The offense is missing about 3 players to be there and all the coaching. I'd say they are better off trading down to 2 or 3, take MHJ and find a way to draft Daniels. Let him sit behind Fields one year to develop. If the Bears selected Mahomes, he'd be right were trubisky is. If the Bears take Williams, he most likely would join them in 4 years too. Stroud is one of the few exceptions I have seen thrive under a new GM, HC, and OC. That is not a norm in this league. I think our GM is good, HC is meh, OC is unknown. Sorry guys, long day in the pool in Punta Cana 😝 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted January 20 Report Share Posted January 20 1 hour ago, ChileBear said: Taking the QB at no one COULD work, Or COULDN'T. Trading and getting a ton now and then, if you have to, you can go after QB the next year with what you get in the trade. I'm agreeing with Jason on this. That would be an awesome thought if the QB class didn't completely suck next year. Weakest class in years. I guess anything could happen with players developing. Did we get spoiled with last year's trade back? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChileBear Posted January 21 Report Share Posted January 21 3 hours ago, Mongo3451 said: Did we get spoiled with last year's trade back? Yes, we Bear fans definitely got spoiled given the Panthers' gifting us another no one choice this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted January 21 Report Share Posted January 21 20 hours ago, ChileBear said: Yes, we Bear fans definitely got spoiled given the Panthers' gifting us another no one choice this year. I think some people thinkt hat if we trade back this year, we will get next year's #1 overall again, and i think thats very unlikely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChileBear Posted January 22 Report Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said: I think some people thinkt hat if we trade back this year, we will get next year's #1 overall again, and i think thats very unlikely. What are the odds on that? Probably just a tad bit better than mine in the lottery. LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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