QB thread

[BearFan PHX]

5 minutes ago, adam said:

Yep, if they were on the fence like a lot of fans have been, the answer is clear that you have to clean house from HC to QB.

amen.

[adam]

30 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

amen.

Fields ended up with a great chance to be the hero and his decisive drive was a 3 and out for negative -2 yards with the game on the line. If they get one first down it is probably game over (since 4th Down hit the 2 minute warning) because they could've burnt more clock and the CLE timeouts. They had 2 timeouts, so that would stop the clock on 1st and 2nd, then the full clock gets burnt on 3rd and you could run the clock down all the way on 4th. The play clock is 40 secs, so they couldve burnt at least 1:30 leaving CLE 30 seconds and no timeouts.

[BearFan PHX]

3 minutes ago, adam said:

Fields ended up with a great chance to be the hero and his decisive drive was a 3 and out for negative -2 yards with the game on the line. If they get one first down it is probably game over (since 4th Down hit the 2 minute warning) because they could've burnt more clock and the CLE timeouts. They had 2 timeouts, so that would stop the clock on 1st and 2nd, then the full clock gets burnt on 3rd and you could run the clock down all the way on 4th. The play clock is 40 secs, so they couldve burnt at least 1:30 leaving CLE 30 seconds and no timeouts.

this also sounds like good coaching!

[adam]

2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

this also sounds like good coaching!

It's a microcosm of the season and Fields career. I guess people didn't notice Fields has only led 2 TD drives starting from the Bears side of the field in the last 4 games. The defense has been carrying this team for the last 6-7 weeks. Bagent went 2-2 with the defense doing the heavy lifting and Fields now is 2-2 since returning from injury. It shows the QB either doesn't matter or isn't being impactful.

[BearFan PHX]

24 minutes ago, adam said:

It's a microcosm of the season and Fields career. I guess people didn't notice Fields has only led 2 TD drives starting from the Bears side of the field in the last 4 games. The defense has been carrying this team for the last 6-7 weeks. Bagent went 2-2 with the defense doing the heavy lifting and Fields now is 2-2 since returning from injury. It shows the QB either doesn't matter or isn't being impactful.

good point.

[adam]

Pretty crazy to find someone do basically the same exact analysis and coming to essentially the same conclusions I did from a month agao. The highest success rate for QB is when selected #1.  70% of the #1 picks in the last 30 years hit 4K passing yards, had a playoff win, and Pro Bowl. The rest of the 1st rounders, the success rate drops to 25%-33%. So a team is 2-3 times more likely to find THE GUY #1 than he is any other pick in the 1st round. The numbers plummet even further after the 1st round. Guys like Brady and to an extent Purdy (if he keeps it up) are unicorns, and make 6th and 7th round picks have a 4% chance of hitting compared to 2%.

 

[BearFan PHX]

31 minutes ago, adam said:

Pretty crazy to find someone do basically the same exact analysis and coming to essentially the same conclusions I did from a month agao. The highest success rate for QB is when selected #1.  70% of the #1 picks in the last 30 years hit 4K passing yards, had a playoff win, and Pro Bowl. The rest of the 1st rounders, the success rate drops to 25%-33%. So a team is 2-3 times more likely to find THE GUY #1 than he is any other pick in the 1st round. The numbers plummet even further after the 1st round. Guys like Brady and to an extent Purdy (if he keeps it up) are unicorns, and make 6th and 7th round picks have a 4% chance of hitting compared to 2%.

 

yes, and of course it isnt picking them #1 that makes them great, but just all the GMs who see the player the same way.

In a year like this, where the consensus #1 may play outside of structure, and there are so many good options, it may be that the 2nd QB picks outplays the first one, or is also good too.

I wonder what the numbers look like #2 pick vs #9 etc. EDIT - click on the tweet and read the whole thread, theres a LOT there, and it is a strong signal vs noise.

Like look at this! 6th - 10th picks doing better than 2nd - 5th
 

I need to watch a lot of film on Williams.

[adam]

Here are the first QBs taken when there is not one taken #1 overall (last 5):

2022 - Pickett
2017 - Trubisky
2014 - Bortles
2013 - Manuel
2008 - Ryan

The last 4, yeesh. So like you said, when there is a consensus, the odds are better. I also looked back at a bunch of draft sites about the QB rankings from last year, it was about 50/50 Young and Stroud. Some other sites were even undecided and said it depended on what type of QB you were looking for. Every site was concerned about Young's size though, which is and was a huge red flag. 

[adam]

I need to look into how many teams selected a QB #1 when they were not the worst team in the league (either via trade like the Bears, or they traded up for the pick).

CAR was 7-10 the year before they traded up for Bryce Young! 💀

LAR was 7-9 the year before trading up for Goff.

ATL was 4-12 the year before trading up for Vick in 2001 draft. Those are the only 3 instances since 2000 where a team other than the worst team in the league was picking a QB at #1. 

The Bears would be the first team to gain the pick without having to trade up for it. Does anyone ever remember another case where a team acquired the #1 overall pick and didn't trade up for it?

[BearFan PHX]

I guess Im gonna have to get over the drama BS and see if I cant fall in love with Williams the player.

[adam]

42 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

I guess Im gonna have to get over the drama BS and see if I cant fall in love with Williams the player.

I am not a scout, so all I can do is go off what others are saying. When I read stuff like this, from analysts I believe are fairly consistent, it sort of makes it a no brainer:

“I just think he’s a rare, rare talent and I can’t see the Chicago Bears bypassing that,” NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah said about Williams.

"I don’t know what he’ll do, but I can tell you what other NFL teams believe he’ll do: trade Justin Fields and draft a quarterback at No. 1. This is as much a financial decision as it is a football decision". - Dane Brugler, The Athletic

from last year's final mock:

"I don’t know what the Panthers are going to do, but I can tell you what other teams believe the Panthers are going to do: draft Young."

That to me seems very interesting. I know it means nothing, but the parallels are pretty crazy from this perspective.

Brugler predicted the top 4 picks, including Richardson to Indy at #4. He also had Levis going to TEN at #11, but talked about the need to build their OLine. They actually picked Skoronski at #11 and Levis fell to them in the 2nd round. He had Joey Porter going to PIT at 17, he went there at 32. He had JSN going to SEA at 20, he did. Zay Flowers to BAL at 22, he did. 

[adam]

This also can be a huge smoke screen. Obviously, if there is a trade announced before the draft, they are trading the pick. However, we won't know for sure if he is actually selecting a QB at #1 until the pick is in. So even if there are no pre-draft trades, there is nothing stopping a team on draft day from pulling the trigger on a trade. The suspense is going to crazy.

Today is exactly 100 days until the NFL draft, they have a timer here: https://visitdetroit.com/2024nfldraft/

So yes, we may have to wait 100 days until we find out.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

NULL

[BearFan PHX]

On 1/16/2024 at 6:47 PM, adam said:

I am not a scout, so all I can do is go off what others are saying.

I think we've all watched enough football to be able to at least do a little of our own opinion building. I'm not one that thinks there is a ton of special sauce that we cant see. I mean, I know there are finer points of footwork etc that I wont pick up on, but any of us can see the main stuff, and it's a lot to make a good opinion from. I almost feel like if all we do is read newspapers and stats, then we get caught up in bubble of narratives, as the reporters parrot what they read from each other. It can get nuts! It WILL get nuts around Caleb. He's already an enigmatic figure to be sure.

So for me, I try to find all 22 footage. And this is what I look at:

Did he throw off of a good base if he was able to (mechanics)
Did he hit a receiver in stride when their route broke open i.e. on time (timing)
Did he lead the receiver to help YAC or away from a defender (accuracy)
Does he look confident and have a smooth throwing motion (confidence and athleticism)
Can he throw all the routes without rainbows (arm strength)
Does he make good situational decisions like throwing the ball away, managing the clock etc (leadership)
On plays where he didnt play in rhythm, was someone open or did he have to break for some reason (structure)
On plays that broke how is his improvisational ability (improvisation)

I know everyone already knows this. Just saying this process ain't rocket science.

I'll watch each play 2 or 3 times to answer all that, and you can get a feel for how many plays are successful and how many are not. You can see if he gets rattled by pressure, or fooled by coverages. I dont keep score or anything, but if you look at 30 passes, you'll have an idea. And best if they all come from a single game against a quality opponent, rather than a highlight reel. So I see the good ones and the bad ones. And if I watch a few games against good opponents, then it's a good view.

And then of course I have a ton of good examples and bad examples and you gotta make some kind of guess as to where his average ability level is, and how consistent he is.

That's the tape and we can all form informed opinions on it if we take a couple hours across the next few months to look at it..

But I dont even think that's what the core of what the Bears are still looking at now. I think they want to know everything about Caleb Williams. I bet the have investigators doing all kinds of work. And theyre making phone calls to ask past coaches and anyone about him.

You gotta find out if he's coachable. And make a guess at what his ceiling is, and whether he will reach it.

He's a hell of a prospect, I can already see that, but you gotta make sure hes the right guy too. Its a hell of a hard problem.