Week 13 Bye Week Open Thread

[BearFan PHX]

16 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I don’t understand your first question. ‘Trade Fields for one of the others then keep him?’   
 

And the point about stats are how you want to interpret them, and yes they don’t tell the whole story.  Suffice to say the stats I provided paint a more positive picture of Fields.  

Oh you were comparing Fields to those other QBs who have similar numbers. So I was asking if you really thought that Fields was on the same level with those guys, that if you had the chance to swap youd stay with Fields?

For me the answer would be to take any of those guys over Fields, but Im taking a rookie this year so its hypothetical.

and then I asked if maybe you were just throwing stats you dont think tell the story in to counter adams stats by saying "neither set of stats tell the story?"

[Stinger226]

52 minutes ago, ChileBear said:

Three years in and Fields is still not a reliable NFL QB. Those numbers from MNF are pathetic and if he hasn't done it consistently yet, it is not going to happen. I think Poles knows it at this point and we'll bring in a new QB via the draft. All the excuses are just that, excuses for the guy that can't be trusted to make the necessary reads, get rid of the ball in a timely manner and put the team on his shoulders and get that gutsy win. Nope, that is not Justin. Get rid of him or bring in his replacement and let Fields play his way out of the job next year, but he will because he doesn't have the skills to be a top NFL QB.

If we stopped today, Fields is considered a failure. BUT we still have 6 games to go , if you add 3 (Detroit ) games and 3 (Minny)  games .  then where does the upside land? I dont count his first year of a year under Nagy, no first team reps, and then got thrown in the fire with a 9 sack game. Totally a wasted year. So I look at a depleted roster last year with a first year coaching staff that finally adapted to his skill set and had some success. Now this year, he started bad with an injured OL, a OC forcing him to sit in the pocket. Then several games pop that show progress . Denver, Washington, and Detroit. How he plays the last 6 games  will determine his progress. 

The key to this progress will be a new coaching staff and probably MHJ next year. Now how much better will he  be next year? we dont know but also dont know the prospects of a new rookie QB.  So what is better for the team next year a better Fields or a rookie QB. It could be a Bryce Young or CJ Stroud, the problem is there is risk in that option to, you have seen progress in Fields. 

The last great QB taken was Burrows in 2020. Tua developed in his 4th yr. , Justin Hebert, good but still a loser,  Jorden Love ???. then Hurts picked at 53. 4 years into their development Burrows always hurt, Hurts and Tua playing well .

In 221 Lawerence is still developing and everyone else has failed, only Fields is still a starter. 

In 2022 out of 8 QBs taken , only a 5th round pick and last pick in the draft have shown success. Howell and Purdy, one year wonders so far. 

the point is who is the right QB? That answer could make you get you fired or hired. 

What I think we should do is keep Fields ( in case he finally develops) and draft a prospect not one of the first 2 picks. That way you double down with 2 shots at the brass ring. Having 2 QBs didnt seem to hurt when the Packers had Farve and Rodgers sitting. there are several prospects in the draft this year. Its not Williams-Maye or bust. 

[adam]

OK a little off topic, how is PIT 7-4 when they are -23 in pt differential while LAC is 4-7 with a +11?

PIT is also negative in yard differential at -44 yds. So PIT allows more yard and points than their opponents but are 7-4 in those games.  The Bears are +23 in yard differential.

 

For DVOA, there are 5 teams with a top 10 offense and top 10 defense:

1. BAL 4/2
2. SF 1/6
3. KC 5/8
4. DET 6/10
5. DAL 10/3

BUF is 6-6 but is 5th in DVOA. LAC is 4-7 and 13th. DEN is 6-5 and 22nd. 

 

Turnover Leaders (FL/INT):

1. Dobbs 5/10 = 15
2. Howell 1/13 = 14
3. Jones 1/12 = 13
4. Allen 0/12 = 12
4. Yound 4/8 = 12
4. Ridder 4/8 = 12
7. Hurts 1/10 = 11
7. Minshew 4/7 = 11
7. Lawrence 4/7 = 11
7. Mahomes 2/9 = 11

Fields is at 3/6 = 9

Fields has the longest Time to Throw in the NFL at 3.13. Tua is the fastest at 2.36. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

I agree, double down with another prospect. If Poles sees it as Williams or Maye, so be it.  I'd prefer to move down, net another future first to keep the ammo stock piled. Mahomes was the 10th pick and this draft seems to have a 4 maybe 5 QB prospects, so it would be great to end up in this same type of scenario. The difference between the Bears and KC is KC had the same system running for years (Reid hired in 2013, Mahomes drafted 2017).  That is probably the most important factor at developing a winning culture, not drafting a highly talented QB.  

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

The difference between the Bears and KC is KC had the same system running for years (Reid hired in 2013, Mahomes drafted 2017).  That is probably the most important factor at developing a winning culture, not drafting a highly talented QB.

There is something to be said for that.  We can also look at the Steelers, who have had the coaches on their history.  Patience is a good thing.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

 That is probably the most important factor at developing a winning culture, not drafting a highly talented QB.  

This is so true. A huge part of what rookie QBs become in the NFL has to do with how they are developed and taught, the system theyre in, and the talent around them. I wonder if we had taken Mahomes instead of Trubisky where he would be today. He might have ended up a bust too.

But I dont wonder about Trubisky if he'd gone to KC, I think if a QB doesnt have it, they dont have it. But if they do, then you gotta try like hell not to screw them up.

If that seems contradictory, Im saying some QBs have what it takes to be great in the NFL AND they need a great coach and team to bring them along, and those that dont have it never will. And the problem is that college football isnt hard enough for these kids to be at NFL level when they get drafted. Not a single one ever is. Youre buying a lottery ticket on the hope that the kid has it to make the next jump, and that you can provide him what he needs to do it. Youre so right - its both.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

4 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Since we're using 'what ifs' I'll ask you this.  What if we end up hiring a coach like Jim Harbaugh to take over as HC next year?  And (assuming he can pick up where he left off in SF) he's able to properly use and develop an offense that caters to FIelds' skillset?  We know he was able to get to a Super Bowl with a less than average QB like Kaepernick so surely he could do the same with a 'slouch' like Fields? 

Or what if, we trade Fields away.  He goes to a team with a functional OC/HC in place and flourishes? And we draft any of the QBs that 'can't be missed' and they flop? Because either they are A) not able to adapt to the NFL or B ) the Bears keep Getsy (or someone like him) and we're right back to where we started but one year later? 

I get the impression you trust Getsy more than you do Fields.  I only say that because you said he is 'hiding Fields' and you openly wonder why?  I ask, is it Fields or Getsy that is the problem? So far the offensive brain trust that was Nathanial Hackett (Getsy was his right hand man in GB) hasn't done really well in either Denver (as HC) or more recently as the OC in NY.

Last night there was a quick clip of Poles in the suite and they showed him where he was talking to someone to his right and motioning with his hand in a circular fashion as if to resemble a repetitive motion.  Some on social media have speculated it was him asking something to the effect of 'the same thing'?  This was right after the offense had done its gazillion-th screen pass to the outside.  There are confirmed reports that came out this week that Poles essentially asked Flus why he wasn't using key players more during the Detroit game.  This was in response to Flus telling the media that the newly acquired Sweat was on a rotation.  We saw last night that Sweat played a lot more than he did the previous week.  I'm curious now, especially with the bye coming up, will we see a more open offense allowing Fields to make or break it and play more to his style of football because Poles will ask Getsy and Flus about it.  I suspect that Poles will want to see Fields in his full potential for the remainder of the season and not hemmed in by Getsy's "protection" calls.    

Fantastic post and the latter half is something I am speculating as well. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

What I think we should do is keep Fields ( in case he finally develops) and draft a prospect not one of the first 2 picks. That way you double down with 2 shots at the brass ring. Having 2 QBs didnt seem to hurt when the Packers had Farve and Rodgers sitting. there are several prospects in the draft this year. Its not Williams-Maye or bust. 

I always revert back to the Redskins 2012 draft when the chose RG3 in the first round and Cousins in round 4.  In that case the competition for RG3 was drafted the same year and proved that a somewhat successful QB doesn’t always have to be chosen in the first round.   

[ChileBear]

9 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

What I think we should do is keep Fields ( in case he finally develops) and draft a prospect not one of the first 2 picks. That way you double down with 2 shots at the brass ring. Having 2 QBs didnt seem to hurt when the Packers had Farve and Rodgers sitting. there are several prospects in the draft this year. Its not Williams-Maye or bust. 

I think you presented a lot of the excuses for Fields in the first part of your post. No denying he has faced hurdles as a pro, but still I havn't seen anything that says he's developed into a QB that can overcome those and still produce. He just lacks the ability to see the field and react quickly with the passes.  Taht being said, I do agree with your last part. Our two picks can set up the franchise, and us fans, for a very good future.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, ChileBear said:

I think you presented a lot of the excuses for Fields in the first part of your post. No denying he has faced hurdles as a pro, but still I havn't seen anything that says he's developed into a QB that can overcome those and still produce. He just lacks the ability to see the field and react quickly with the passes.  Taht being said, I do agree with your last part. Our two picks can set up the franchise, and us fans, for a very good future.

Im not trying make excuses. Lets say we drafted Mahomes, no way he finds the success he found in KC if he were here .He had a great coach, a built team , sat for a year to learn the NFL. Here he would probably be a good QB but not the icon everyone compares to. The other circumstances matter in the development of a QB.  Is Fields where you want him to be , no, but you cant dismiss a 4 TD - 334 yards game either. With all QBs its about consistent play, Fields is not there, I am not blind to that but we have  6 games to see if he grows or is lacking. Players can get better as they get more experience, Tua is a good example, he didnt get better until they gave him Hill and a better running game. Plus they hired McDaniel. This is his second year and all of a sudden, Tua is playing exceptional well. 

Poles needs to win next year, what option gives him a better chance ? I think 2 QBs rather than take a risk with either choice. My problem is  Williams or Maye generational? I dont think so but I trust Poles to figure it out. 

[BearFan PHX]

If everything has to be perfect around a QB for them to succeed, then no QB would ever succeed, because nothing is ever perfect in the NFL.

Some of the issues I wont call excuses, Ill call them mitigating factors. Like Nagy. And last years teardown. Both made it impossible for a QB to overcome. Thats fair. But this year, he has an above average line, DJ Moore and a leading running game.

In my mind the experiment is over, and calling this Vikings game an example of Fields looking good makes no sense to what I saw on the field.

Does Justin have more games to make his case? Absolutely. Anyone want to bet $ that it works out for him? It might, but it's nowhere near a 50/50 bet. And that's all Im saying - in reality, the experiment is over and Fields aint the guy.

But yes there is a chance that we will see an entirely new Fields next week. But you can say that about any player. Maybe Bagent comes off the bench and is a sudden superstar. Or Peterman if hes even still around. Its possible, but like winning the lottery, its really unlikely.

[Stinger226]

I thought Field's Vikings game was a negative except for the final drive and won the game. We have been asking for that all season. On his report card, -1 for that game. Every game has good and bad, his bad outweighed his last good. 

Poles may already have his mind made up , but if that is the case , who is he franchise QB? If he's Williams, that makes me worried. Against good competition, he hasn't looked good. He has piled up stats but they were always behind , empty calories. Plus he is 2" shorter and 20 lbs less. If you applied that this year, that's Bryce Young. Would you be okay if we drafted Bryce Young? Of course you have to give 3-4 to accurately judge a draft pick. 

The last 5 games are important for what risk factor is lower , A rookie QB or Field's improvement. No matter how the rest of the season turns out, I still think doubling down is the best scenario.

You e!iminate  the risk of going somewhere else and being good. Now if you trade back and recover another 2 nd, 1st round next year , you still have 2  1st first round picks and the rest of your draft to improve your roster which helps a rookie or Justin. Decide who is your QB other than the top two, draft him with your 2nd first or if you think he can be gotten in the second. Take a QB , sit behind Fields and he will get his chance to play. If Fields fails you have another shot at the ring with a drafted QB to work with. 

All of your choices have risks, I think the 2 QB choice gives the Bears the best chance to succeed.

[BearFan PHX]

If Fields goes somewhere else and shines, that doesnt hurt us. Only in newspaper articles, but not on the field. All that would matter is who we drafted and how they turn out.

If we draft a pocket passer, and keep Fields, which offense do we install and teach all offseason?

I think it is much more likely that we trade Fields, draft a QB to sit behind Bagent until he is ready, somewhere around week 6 let's say.

[ChileBear]

19 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

If we draft a pocket passer, and keep Fields, which offense do we install and teach all offseason?
 

Something like that is way beyond the coaching staff we now have. Bringing in a competent group has to be a priority this offseason.

[Stinger226]

9 minutes ago, ChileBear said:

Something like that is way beyond the coaching staff we now have. Bringing in a competent group has to be a priority this offseason.

If we change the coaches and QB, we could look at another few years of growing pains. IF we go 4-1 or 3-2 does Flus save his Job? I could see Flus staying and just changing a OC. Getsy has had some good and bad but a better coach will make whoever the QB is better. I would like to see Todd Monken , the OC for Ravens. He adapts to the talent not push schemes over players. I get not looking at Fields favorably , lots of bad tape but to assume a rookie QB is going to ride in on a white horse and we become a playoff contender is naive. If good it will have a couple of yrs of growing pains. everyone looks at Stroud season and think that will happen, that is rare; more bad examples than good. 

Stroud lost to the mighty Panthers 2 weeks before we played them, Stroud was 16-24 for 140 yards no TDs. That's a Fields type game. He had a 4 interception game a few weeks ago . Everyone wants to just remember his couple of great games but not his bad.  

[Stinger226]

19 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

If Fields goes somewhere else and shines, that doesnt hurt us. Only in newspaper articles, but not on the field. All that would matter is who we drafted and how they turn out.

If we draft a pocket passer, and keep Fields, which offense do we install and teach all offseason?

I think it is much more likely that we trade Fields, draft a QB to sit behind Bagent until he is ready, somewhere around week 6 let's say.

God coaches adapt to their talent, that's what good coaches do. Fields plays in the pocket much more than on the move. Unfortunately. If he goes somewhere else, you're right it wont matter but what if he is playing better than our rookie QB? will that matter? 

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

If we change the coaches and QB, we could look at another few years of growing pains. IF we go 4-1 or 3-2 does Flus save his Job? I could see Flus staying and just changing a OC.

This is a big concern of mine.  Poles has his work cut out for himself.  It is great coming in to a season where young players have stability and confidence of knowing their coaching staff will remain intact.  Nothing worse than rats fleeing a burning ship.  As of now, there has been no sign of that.  I can see where Flus and Getsy are learning from mistakes.  What I don't know from Getsy is he being conservative at the end of games because of Flus, Fields or himself.  

[adam]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

If we change the coaches and QB, we could look at another few years of growing pains. IF we go 4-1 or 3-2 does Flus save his Job? I could see Flus staying and just changing a OC. Getsy has had some good and bad but a better coach will make whoever the QB is better. I would like to see Todd Monken , the OC for Ravens. He adapts to the talent not push schemes over players. I get not looking at Fields favorably , lots of bad tape but to assume a rookie QB is going to ride in on a white horse and we become a playoff contender is naive. If good it will have a couple of yrs of growing pains. everyone looks at Stroud season and think that will happen, that is rare; more bad examples than good. 

Stroud lost to the mighty Panthers 2 weeks before we played them, Stroud was 16-24 for 140 yards no TDs. That's a Fields type game. He had a 4 interception game a few weeks ago . Everyone wants to just remember his couple of great games but not his bad.  

If they kept Flus and Fields, and fired Getsy, that would be 3 OC's in 4 years for Justin. That is tough for any QB, let alone one trying to clean up some fatal flaws.

On Stroud, depending on how you look at it, that was his worst game, but he did have a rushing TD that game. He has had 8 multi-TD games but in the 3 games where he had 0-1 TDs, he didn't throw an INT. His lowest QB Rating has been 78.0 with 5 games above 100. Justin has a 78.2, 61.1, 58,7, and 36.7. So it seems like Fields' floor is a lot lower than we thought and he has too many bad games with multiple turnovers. 

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, adam said:

His lowest QB Rating has been 78.0 with 5 games above 100. Justin has a 78.2, 61.1, 58,7, and 36.7. So it seems like Fields' floor is a lot lower than we thought and he has too many bad games with multiple turnovers. 

Speaking of QBRs, someone else (think it was Stinger) brought up a point about Tua and how he struggled his first year or two before McDaniel showed up.   I was curious so I looked to see what Tua's QBR has been over his career:  

• 2020: 44.8
• 2021:  49.7
• 2022:  70.6  (the year McDaniel started)
• 2023:  60.0

Using the same analytic and because I was still curious, how did/does Justin compare:

• 2021:  26.4
• 2022:  56.3 (Flus' and Getsy's first year)
• 2023:  44.5

In Justin's second year (Flus' first) his QBR was higher than both of the first two seasons for Tua.  So far this season he's on par with Tua's first season and that's with him (Justin) missing four games.  So with the idea 'stats are what you make of them' I (being a Fields supporter) could surmise that bringing in a guy who actually knows how to make offensive play calls could fix Justin.  What changed between last year and this year for Justin?  Last year 'they let him play' more naturally and this year they are forcing him to be more of a pocket passer or whatever it is they have changed and we see the results.  I saw a recent interview with Cam Newton and Brandon Marshall and Cam made some points about how he had similar struggles that he sees Justin having.  Cam's opinion was that they are trying to force too much information and not allowing him to  play more freely.  He thought if they  were to get him a coach that caters more to his style of play (OC or HC or both) we would see more success and I think Justin's floor QBR would be that one we saw for 2022.  

And in case you were wondering, I looked up Cam's QBR's.  His highest was 64.3 which was 2013 (I believe the first year Carolina made the playoffs).  HIs second highest QBR?  2015:  61.4.  That year Carolina made it to the Super Bowl and Cam won NFL MVP, Offensive Player of the year and appeared in his third Pro Bowl.  

[BearFan PHX]

yeah but the only reason we are talking about Tua is his 70.6 QB rating year.

To say that a QB had a terrible rating and then got better means that any QB with a terrible rating will get better is flawed logic and flies in the face of every single QB that ever burned out with a bad rating that never got better.

Guys, Fields is not a QB. he doesnt read defenses and he doesnt win games. He wins extremely rarely (even a broken clock is right twice a day) and usually his good performances are against bad defenses.

I truly dont understand all the Fields defenders. It's crazy to me.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

I truly dont understand all the Fields defenders. It's crazy to me.

Just like I don't get the idea of 'throwing the baby out with the bathwater'.    🤷‍♂️

Its why I added some input from a former player like Cam. Not only did he play the position, he admittedly struggled and understood what was needed to make him better.  And in this interview he said he's known Justin since he was 16.  

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Just like I don't get the idea of 'throwing the baby out with the bathwater'.    🤷‍♂️

Its why I added some input from a former player like Cam. Not only did he play the position, he admittedly struggled and understood what was needed to make him better.  And in this interview he said he's known Justin since he was 16.  

I understand that everyone has an opinion, including me. I answered you on the QB thread with a lot of detail, timestamps and pics. I dont really see a baby in that bathwater - check what I wrote and let me know?

And please understand I respect you as a person, I respect your right to any opinion you hold, but while I often can see how people who disagree with me on various things have a point too, in this case, I think it's very cut and dried (to me) - so I dont disrespect you, but the opinion is a lot more confusing to me than most things with which I might disagree.

Anyway, check the QB thread post. It's pretty damning.

[Stinger226]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Just like I don't get the idea of 'throwing the baby out with the bathwater'.    🤷‍♂️

Its why I added some input from a former player like Cam. Not only did he play the position, he admittedly struggled and understood what was needed to make him better.  And in this interview he said he's known Justin since he was 16.  

Fans go either way on their opinions. Some people only notice the mistakes and some just see the good things Fields does. I pay attention what former QBs say ,  they are in a better place to see how a player is doing on the field. Fields has the intangibles to play the position , leadership, hard worker, tough player, totally has the respect of his team. He is accountable when he plays bad. Everyone worries about arm strength, and no one questions that. His biggest complain is his decision making. He appears to be getting better or that's what the former QBs notice. Remember last year the NFL players voted him the 86th best player  in the league coming off a bad year. They voted him ahead of Trevor Lawrence, that is clearly respect from your peers.

 So we're going to bring in a rookie and  they have to diagnose all of his traits not just his passing skills. Lots of questions about Williams attitude already stated he would only play for 3 teams. We are not on that list. His size will bring  questions about durability issues. People throw around the word ( generational) way to much. Mahomes was never mentioned in that context. Was Burrows? I don't remember. Do we have to go back to Luck to say that? I dont think NFL people have any idea what that is.

[adam]

3 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Speaking of QBRs, someone else (think it was Stinger) brought up a point about Tua and how he struggled his first year or two before McDaniel showed up.   I was curious so I looked to see what Tua's QBR has been over his career:  

• 2020: 44.8
• 2021:  49.7
• 2022:  70.6  (the year McDaniel started)
• 2023:  60.0

Using the same analytic and because I was still curious, how did/does Justin compare:

• 2021:  26.4
• 2022:  56.3 (Flus' and Getsy's first year)
• 2023:  44.5

In Justin's second year (Flus' first) his QBR was higher than both of the first two seasons for Tua.  So far this season he's on par with Tua's first season and that's with him (Justin) missing four games.  So with the idea 'stats are what you make of them' I (being a Fields supporter) could surmise that bringing in a guy who actually knows how to make offensive play calls could fix Justin.  What changed between last year and this year for Justin?  Last year 'they let him play' more naturally and this year they are forcing him to be more of a pocket passer or whatever it is they have changed and we see the results.  I saw a recent interview with Cam Newton and Brandon Marshall and Cam made some points about how he had similar struggles that he sees Justin having.  Cam's opinion was that they are trying to force too much information and not allowing him to  play more freely.  He thought if they  were to get him a coach that caters more to his style of play (OC or HC or both) we would see more success and I think Justin's floor QBR would be that one we saw for 2022.  

And in case you were wondering, I looked up Cam's QBR's.  His highest was 64.3 which was 2013 (I believe the first year Carolina made the playoffs).  HIs second highest QBR?  2015:  61.4.  That year Carolina made it to the Super Bowl and Cam won NFL MVP, Offensive Player of the year and appeared in his third Pro Bowl.  

and Stroud has a 62.7 so far this year, better than both Tua and Fields. Tua gets a big penalty for his running. He is only averaging 1.5 yards per carry. They clearly are not allowing him to run (concussion risks). 

[adam]

I am starting to see national media turn positive for the Bears. Gordon, Brisker, Johnson, Edwards, and Sweat are getting a lot praise nationally. On offense, I keep hearing about Kmet, Moore, Jenkins, Wright, and Braxton Jones. When Foreman was playing, he was getting some attention, and now I see that put on Roshcon, which is nice to see. Fields always got attention, so that is hard to decipher, but hearing about 10-12 Bears plays nationally on a regular basis has me hopeful for a turnaround.

Many are even saying the record is not indicative of the talent on the roster and that if they keep trending like they have been, they are going to be a tough out down the stretch. I would like to believe that and see that.

I hope everyone enjoyed their bye week and college football. Now we get to sit back and watch the tankathon standings for CAR's pick.