QB Daniels vs Williams..

[OmahaBear]

Being and LSU fan I have watched Daniels the last 2 years and he has made huge strides in his abilities.  He appears to be ahead of Williams is about every stat.  I never watched Williams play, so not looking at stats, why does everyone say he is so much better?  Been waiting for some talk show guys to explain the difference but none have ever done it.  

[adam]

Omaha, it is very interesting because you have to weigh their own performance, the quality of their teammates, coaches, and opponents, then figure out what projects best to the NFL. For Daniels, he had an incredible season, and he should be considered in the top group of QBs. I am sure as the offseason goes along, combine, pro day, etc, he will slide up the chart. 

I always look at different ways to figure out who can project to an NFL QB AND how long that will take. Looking at college passing attempts (equate to experience), here are college attempts and pro attempts for all the main QBs over the last few years.

In this list below, the * is the number of seasons with a QBR over 60.0. There is a huge clump of QBs that had over 1000 passing attempts in college to Mahomes in the 1300's, then even after him, you have Purdy, Goff, Mayfield, and Browning. Goff and Mayfield are pretty well established QBs, you kind of know what you got (their floors and ceilings are defined). Purdy is well on his way, and even Browning has filled in for Burrow with better numbers, but the jury is still out on him. 

For Fields, he was in the high risk area coming out with only 618 passing attempts. The only QB that has succeeded for more than one season with fewer passing attempts is Kyler Murray (2x QBR seasons). Mac Jones and Trubisky are like clones, projecting very similarly.

What I find interesting is Fields still has less live game attempts than Mac Jones (started with less), Zach Wilson (didn't play that much), Sam Howell (drafted later), Jordan Love (just started this season), Daniel Jones (always hurt), Desmond Ridder, Brock Purdy, Jake Browning, Mike Penix, Kenny Pickett, and Bo Nix. Every rep is development. So the jury is still out on him, though he is getting close to those 1600 reps. By then, they are who they are.

Passing Attempts College+Pros

High Risk/Small Sample Size
T. Lance 318 (+102)=420
A. Richardson 393 (+84)=477
D. Mills 438 (+880)=1318
K. Murray 519 (+2140)=2659**
M. Jones 556 (+1308)=1864
M. Trubisky 572 (+1872)=2444*   [Did the Bears really do this back to back?]
J. Fields 618 (+883)=1501  [Did the Bears really do this back to back?]
J. Allen 649 (+3056)=3705****
T. Tagovailoa 684 (+1536)=2220*
W. Levis 738 (+249)=987
-------------------
Min. Eval 800-1000 Attempts
C. Stroud 830 (+441)=1271
Z. Wilson 837 (+993)=1830
J. Burrow 945 (+1895)=2840**
B. Young 949 (+441)=1390
D. Maye 952
-------------------
Projectable Range 1000-1600 Attempts
J. Hurts 1047 (+1501)=2548*
L. Jackson 1086 (+2056)=3142****
C. Williams 1099
S. Howell 1117 (+554)=1671
J. Love 1125 (+569)=1694
T. Lawrence 1138 (+1678)=2816*
D. Prescott 1169 (+3767)=4936*****
D. Watson 1207 (+2089)=3296***
D. Jones 1275 (+1900)=3175*
J. Herbert 1293 (+2422)=3715****
D. Ridder 1304 (+469)=1773
P. Mahomes 1349 (+3517)=4866******
J. Daniels 1438
B. Purdy 1467 (+554)=2021*
J. Browning 1484 (+144)=1628
B. Mayfield 1497 (+2725)=4223*
J. Goff 1569 (+4001)=5570**
M. Penix 1596
--------------------
Hard to Adapt 1600+ (can they improve from here?)
K. Pickett 1674 (+713)=2387
B. Nix 1901

[Pixote]

32 minutes ago, adam said:

I always look at different ways to figure out who can project to an NFL QB AND how long that will take. Looking at college passing attempts (equate to experience), here are college attempts and pro attempts for all the main QBs over the last few years.

In this list below, the * is the number of seasons with a QBR over 60.0. There is a huge clump of QBs that had over 1000 passing attempts in college to Mahomes in the 1300's, then even after him, you have Purdy, Goff, Mayfield, and Browning. Goff and Mayfield are pretty well established QBs, you kind of know what you got (their floors and ceilings are defined). Purdy is well on his way, and even Browning has filled in for Burrow with better numbers, but the jury is still out on him. 

For Fields, he was in the high risk area coming out with only 618 passing attempts. The only QB that has succeeded for more than one season with fewer passing attempts is Kyler Murray (2x QBR seasons). Mac Jones and Trubisky are like clones, projecting very similarly.

What I find interesting is Fields still has less live game attempts than Mac Jones (started with less), Zach Wilson (didn't play that much), Sam Howell (drafted later), Jordan Love (just started this season), Daniel Jones (always hurt), Desmond Ridder, Brock Purdy, Jake Browning, Mike Penix, Kenny Pickett, and Bo Nix. Every rep is development. So the jury is still out on him, though he is getting close to those 1600 reps. By then, they are who they are.

Thanks for this insight. Although I had always been concerned about drafting a player, at any position but especially at an offensive skill position, with limited experience as a starter, I had never considered the number of passing attempts a QB had pre-draft. I guess they are a bit related but still, eye opening for me. Then combine that with pro reps to consider when a proper evaluation can be accomplished, nice!

I am a huge Daniels fan. Would love to see him groomed behind Fields with a new Offensive Coordinator and an improved offensive line.

 

 

[OmahaBear]

Aw.. very interesting.  Thanks for that Adam.  Didn't realize Fields was so far behind in the rep department.. 

[Mongo3451]

I remember Parcells wouldn't even consider a QB that didn't have multiple years of experience.  Times have changed...

[Stinger226]

I think Daniels might be drafted ahead of the other 2, or at least right behind them in the draft. Scouts and GMs do complete evaluations and they get it wrong 2 out of 3 times.  i dont care who is QBing the Bears next yr as long as Poles made the right choice. 

[adam]

Yeah, I read a book about the 10,000-Hour Rule. Basically that is the amount of time you need to put into something to truly "master" it. It can be applied to just about any skill.

Obviously some more than others, but when it comes to QBing, the actually rep of the pre-snap read, receive from Center, post snap read, and then an actual passing attempt (vs a scramble) is super important. Some guys played more games, but other played less but had more passing attempts. To me the volume matters, and historically, Fields has been on the low side of volume, which is fine, but it makes the eval window slower/longer. 

Daniels is very intriguing because, for me, he hits all the things you are looking for in a future NFL QB, he played at a big school, against tough competition, had 7x 300yd passing games AND 5x 100yd rushing games (with 3 others in the 90s), a total of 40 passing TDs and 10 rushing TDs to go with only 4 INTs, and never more in one game and no back to back games with an INT. That is very impressive to me.

He is 6'4" (I hope they didn't measure his hair) and 210, so he has the frame to put on a few lbs of muscle. He just turned 23, so he is not too young or too old (22-23 seems like the best window for success). 

 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

This isn't exactly on topic - but as I wrote my post yesterday talking about where top QB's came going back to Brady's draft - one of my examples was Drew Brees (2nd rounder - but 2nd pick).  What hit me was, Drew Brees is unique in many ways - because he is also a QB who in his first 3 years was NOT good (just go back and look at his stats) but who really exploded in his 4th year (happens to be the year they had the #1 overall pick by the way and moved down because Eli didn't want to go there and they than drafted Rivers who basically sat for 2 years before becoming the starter).

So that made me think - Brees is an example of a guy who didn't actually click in year 4. He is also an example of a situation, where the team, in this case the Chargers, had the #1 overall pick in the season Brees was entering year 4.  Chargers decided Brees wasn't there guy, drafted Rivers, Brees took off in year 4 (played well again in year 5 - but did suffer a serious arm injury at end of year 5 - which led to him leaving for Saints).  Whether Rivers being there pressured Brees to take off or Brees just needed an extra year, but this is a guy in Brees who was as dominant of a pocket passer as the college game had seen who took 4 years to make that jump (and obviously once he was paired with Sean Payton he accelerated that jump).

I get that Brees & Fields are totally different players - but when we say we haven't seen guys break out - this is a clear example of that situation and a nearly identical situation in terms of Charges having #1 pick (hopefully Bears end up with #1 pick).  

[killakrzydav]

So, in regards to Daniels explosive progression.  He has been doing VR game prep progressively faster to where he's processing and making decisions in milliseconds. The VR plays faster than actual game speed. It's amazing to watch. For me, Daniels is going to be the second qb of the board at worst.

I've watched a set ton of this qb back to ASU. He is very much like JF in that he can take the ball to the house at anytime.  Passing, his deep ball is as beautiful as JFs but his short game and intermediate game is where he thrives. I like him more than Caleb as a leader and a pro

[killakrzydav]

He takes monster hits sometime running. Like wtf and how did he get up. A few times he didn't 

[adam]

45 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

This isn't exactly on topic - but as I wrote my post yesterday talking about where top QB's came going back to Brady's draft - one of my examples was Drew Brees (2nd rounder - but 2nd pick).  What hit me was, Drew Brees is unique in many ways - because he is also a QB who in his first 3 years was NOT good (just go back and look at his stats) but who really exploded in his 4th year (happens to be the year they had the #1 overall pick by the way and moved down because Eli didn't want to go there and they than drafted Rivers who basically sat for 2 years before becoming the starter).

So that made me think - Brees is an example of a guy who didn't actually click in year 4. He is also an example of a situation, where the team, in this case the Chargers, had the #1 overall pick in the season Brees was entering year 4.  Chargers decided Brees wasn't there guy, drafted Rivers, Brees took off in year 4 (played well again in year 5 - but did suffer a serious arm injury at end of year 5 - which led to him leaving for Saints).  Whether Rivers being there pressured Brees to take off or Brees just needed an extra year, but this is a guy in Brees who was as dominant of a pocket passer as the college game had seen who took 4 years to make that jump (and obviously once he was paired with Sean Payton he accelerated that jump).

I get that Brees & Fields are totally different players - but when we say we haven't seen guys break out - this is a clear example of that situation and a nearly identical situation in terms of Charges having #1 pick (hopefully Bears end up with #1 pick).  

Brees had more passes in college than Fields has in college+pros combined so Fields definitely still has a way to go in his development. 

Brees was much more of an established pocket passer coming out of college and the only difference between his 4th season and any previous was TDs and INTs. He actually passed for more yards in his 2nd year than his 4th. Half of his completions in 2004 went to Tomlinson and Gates.  

I definitely see where you are going on the timing though, but the Brees situation was more injury history and injury related on why they first drafted Rivers and why they ultimately went with him in the end. If the Bears get the #1 pick and draft a QB, and they keep Fields, I wouldn't put it past him if he balled out. Maybe that is what he has been missing, true pressure/competition. 

[adam]

13 minutes ago, killakrzydav said:

So, in regards to Daniels explosive progression.  He has been doing VR game prep progressively faster to where he's processing and making decisions in milliseconds. The VR plays faster than actual game speed. It's amazing to watch. For me, Daniels is going to be the second qb of the board at worst.

I've watched a set ton of this qb back to ASU. He is very much like JF in that he can take the ball to the house at anytime.  Passing, his deep ball is as beautiful as JFs but his short game and intermediate game is where he thrives. I like him more than Caleb as a leader and a pro

I didn't know that about the VR, Fields needs to try that, get the twitch response mechanism going quicker.

[killakrzydav]

Hearing his coaches gush over his intelligence is refreshing. I like smart. Dumb just irritates me to no end.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

14 minutes ago, killakrzydav said:

So, in regards to Daniels explosive progression.  He has been doing VR game prep progressively faster to where he's processing and making decisions in milliseconds. The VR plays faster than actual game speed. It's amazing to watch. For me, Daniels is going to be the second qb of the board at worst.

I've watched a set ton of this qb back to ASU. He is very much like JF in that he can take the ball to the house at anytime.  Passing, his deep ball is as beautiful as JFs but his short game and intermediate game is where he thrives. I like him more than Caleb as a leader and a pro

Great insight.  I have been on the early Daniels wagon just from reading about him.  I was hoping he might last to the pick 10 range, but it sure seems like he will climb fast as the draft gets closer.  

My hope was to move down, gain a 2025 first and take him and sit him behind JF for a year but he might have to be taken at the top

[DABEARSDABOMB]

10 minutes ago, adam said:

Brees had more passes in college than Fields has in college+pros combined so Fields definitely still has a way to go in his development. 

Brees was much more of an established pocket passer coming out of college and the only difference between his 4th season and any previous was TDs and INTs. He actually passed for more yards in his 2nd year than his 4th. Half of his completions in 2004 went to Tomlinson and Gates.  

I definitely see where you are going on the timing though, but the Brees situation was more injury history and injury related on why they first drafted Rivers and why they ultimately went with him in the end. If the Bears get the #1 pick and draft a QB, and they keep Fields, I wouldn't put it past him if he balled out. Maybe that is what he has been missing, true pressure/competition. 

Brees got hurt after year 5 - they drafted Rivers after year 3. 

[BearFan PHX]

27 minutes ago, killakrzydav said:

So, in regards to Daniels explosive progression.  He has been doing VR game prep progressively faster to where he's processing and making decisions in milliseconds. The VR plays faster than actual game speed. It's amazing to watch. For me, Daniels is going to be the second qb of the board at worst.

That's very cool info.

[BearFan PHX]

To me, the thing about Fields is that it's not just his stats that need to progress, but the specific skill of throwing the ball to the right receiver in context of your progressions in the intended timing of the play. I don't see him doing that much at all for plays that have reads. So he can throw for more and more yards on broken plays, and forced reads like screens, but that isnt progress in terms of the main skill for a QB. I don't think that Brees had that problem, he just needed to get better in general at a skill he was already showing, Fields needs to acquire that primary QB skill, and really hasnt.

To be clear, Fields may be the best broken play QB of all time. And it is a valid opinion, even though I don't share it, that that style could win playoff games.

But I'm not seeing much development in the area I'm concerned about, so stats alone don't really tell the story, and the 4th year development of other QBs don't really set a pattern here either, since they didn't have that problem, they were just increasing overall, and not relying on hero ball needing to learn how to play QB?

[adam]

18 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Brees got hurt after year 5 - they drafted Rivers after year 3. 

Brees just played like crap in Year 3, giving them the reason to draft Rivers. I thought he got hurt, he just got benched for Flutie.

[Mongo3451]

I'm gonna try to go to the combine on QB day...

[BearFan PHX]

15 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

I'm gonna try to go to the combine on QB day...

is it open to the public? thats awesome.

[Mongo3451]

1 minute ago, BearFan PHX said:

is it open to the public? thats awesome.

It's limited, but I'll get in.

[BearFan PHX]

1 minute ago, Mongo3451 said:

It's limited, but I'll get in.

even more awesome. Tell us what you see!

[Stinger226]

4 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

It's limited, but I'll get in.

So what school did you play at? You might have mentioned it  before? Friends with some coaches?

[Mongo3451]

51 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

So what school did you play at? You might have mentioned it  before? Friends with some coaches?

It ain't that deep.  I know some low level people at the stadium and some media invites.  They also sell limited tickets.  I'll get in one way or another.  Won't be the first time.

[AZ54]

4 hours ago, killakrzydav said:

Hearing his coaches gush over his intelligence is refreshing. I like smart. Dumb just irritates me to no end.

Interesting because he never looked smart on the field at ASU.   The raw talent and lack of muscle was there.   If he’s improved then the team needs to understand his study habits and learning comprehension because that is what carries forward to the NFL.
 

Yesterday I watched a highlight film of Daniels.  Naturally all they put in it are deep passes and big runs.  I gotta search for more to see the quick reads  and throws into tight windows on short routes.