2025 Schedule/Opponents - Oh boy

[adam]

12 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

If the Bears don't win the division, it would be ideal for them to be the 5th seed, because Tampa kind of sucks right now. I'm not so sure Carolina doesn't overtake them at some point down the stretch if they keep playing the way they have.

2-4 the rest of the way gets you to 10 wins. 3-3 gets you to 11. The Eagles got punched in the mouth by the Cowboys today. A win against them, regardless of how it looks, would certainly put them on the map in the NFC.

If they can't beat CLE, they don't deserve to be in the playoffs. So that leaves 5 other games, PHI, GB, SF, GB, and DET. 1-4 in those 5 would be bad, I am hoping no worse than 2-3, which is 3-3 the rest of the way for a 11-6 finish. I think that locks you into the #6 Seed. The #5 Seed is tough unless the Bears beat SF, and if they do that, they are probably winning the Division at 13-4.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

3 hours ago, adam said:

If they can't beat CLE, they don't deserve to be in the playoffs. So that leaves 5 other games, PHI, GB, SF, GB, and DET. 1-4 in those 5 would be bad, I am hoping no worse than 2-3, which is 3-3 the rest of the way for a 11-6 finish. I think that locks you into the #6 Seed. The #5 Seed is tough unless the Bears beat SF, and if they do that, they are probably winning the Division at 13-4.

IMHO I think right now Detroit, LAR and maybe Philly are all better in the NFC.  I’d even throw in SF because of Shannahan and that both Purdy and Kittle are back.  

[adam]

17 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

IMHO I think right now Detroit, LAR and maybe Philly are all better in the NFC.  I’d even throw in SF because of Shannahan and that both Purdy and Kittle are back.  

LAR is for sure, they are humming. I am not sold on PHI, DET, or SF.

PHI is 4-3 in their last 7, and lost to NYG and DAL in that stretch. See my post about Barkley, he has been off all year. For an 8-3 team, there is a lot of drama.

DET is 3-3 in their last 6, and needed OT to beat NYG. They already have twice as many losses as last year. Goff playing in CHI in January should be fun in Week 18.

SF is 4-4 in their last 8. People talk about the Bears wins. SF's last 3 wins have been against ARZ, NYG, and ATL. Their defense is not the same w/o Warner.

 

[adam]

The Strength of Schedule thing is so skewed when you play more than one super bad team. RIght now the Titans, Jets, Raiders, Giants, and Saints have 2 or fewer wins. So if you played any of those teams a few times, your SoS is gone. NE has played the Titans, Jets, Raiders, and Saints, and the Bengals, Dolphins, Browns, and Falcons. That is 8 games against teams with 4 or fewer wins, and they are 7-1 in those games. 

[Bears4Ever_34]

Bears are screwed now if they don't win the division. Pretty much worst case scenario for these Thanksgiving games. DAL beating KC means they're almost certainly getting one of the wildcard spots with their schedule. Their only loseable game left is DET next week, so that result hurts the Bears either way.

The Packers winning also hurts, because Detroit's schedule is easier. They're not losing 8 games, and who knows whether the Bears win the tie-breaker vs them anyways.

[Mongo3451]

Water seeks it's own level and so will the Bears.  I'm thankful that we're all hopeful.

[adam]

1 hour ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

Bears are screwed now if they don't win the division. Pretty much worst case scenario for these Thanksgiving games. DAL beating KC means they're almost certainly getting one of the wildcard spots with their schedule. Their only loseable game left is DET next week, so that result hurts the Bears either way.

The Packers winning also hurts, because Detroit's schedule is easier. They're not losing 8 games, and who knows whether the Bears win the tie-breaker vs them anyways.

At 6-5-1, if they go 4-1 the rest of the way, that's 10-6-1. The Bears go 3-3, they are 11-6. DAL also plays the Chargers, so 3-2 seems more realistic, finishing at 9-7-1. 

[Bears4Ever_34]

1 hour ago, adam said:

At 6-5-1, if they go 4-1 the rest of the way, that's 10-6-1. The Bears go 3-3, they are 11-6. DAL also plays the Chargers, so 3-2 seems more realistic, finishing at 9-7-1. 

I think DAL will be favored in 4 of the 5 games left on their schedule. 3-2 is certainly possible, but they just beat PHI and KC in back to back weeks. They're playing really good football right now at the right moment, which scares me. They might run the table.

Even going 4-1 will force the Bears into needing at least 11 wins to get in. I feel confident getting to 10, but 11 feels daunting. Caleb is going to have to play much better than he has the last couple weeks to get there.

[Bears4Ever_34]

At the moment, here's what I'm thinking if the Bears don't end up winning the division:

I'm assuming SEA and SF are forgone conclusions to be 2 of the 3 wildcard teams based on their relatively weak schedules to finish the season. We will revisit this in the coming weeks.

Scenario 1- DAL wins out ---> DET and CHI are eliminated unless they win 12

Scenario 2- DAL beats DET, but doesn't win out ---> 11 becomes the magic number

Scenario 3- DAL loses to DET ---> Week 18 Bears vs Lions decides the final spot unless the Bears implode down the stretch

 

[adam]

11 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

I think DAL will be favored in 4 of the 5 games left on their schedule. 3-2 is certainly possible, but they just beat PHI and KC in back to back weeks. They're playing really good football right now at the right moment, which scares me. They might run the table.

Even going 4-1 will force the Bears into needing at least 11 wins to get in. I feel confident getting to 10, but 11 feels daunting. Caleb is going to have to play much better than he has the last couple weeks to get there.

Next week is a big week for the NFC Playoff picture.

CHI-GB = winner takes the reins of the NFC North, loser may fall out of playoff slot.

DET-DAL = winner probably jumps into the 7th seed, loser probably out of playoff contention.

 

 

[Bears4Ever_34]

26 minutes ago, adam said:

Next week is a big week for the NFC Playoff picture.

CHI-GB = winner takes the reins of the NFC North, loser may fall out of playoff slot.

DET-DAL = winner probably jumps into the 7th seed, loser probably out of playoff contention.

 

 

Yeah. If DET loses to DAL, they have the Rams the following week. They'd be 7-7 by then. Hard to see them coming back from that. 

On the flipside, if DAL does beat DET, the Chargers are the only team standing in the way of DAL winning out barring some crazy upset by WAS, NYG, or MIN, who'll be in tank/vacation mode.

Bears would either have to get to 12 wins, or they have to beat SF and maybe DET in the final two weeks, hope SF loses at least one more, so the Bears win the tiebreaker at 11-6 to keep them out.

[Stinger226]

If we lose this week and beat GB next week , we will be back  in the lead with maybe tying Lions if they win next week. The most important games on our schedule are the Lions and both GB games. Lets say we lose the other 3 opponents and win the division games 10-7. Lions has to face Cowboys , Rams and us again, so we have control over the division.