Year 2 QB QBR Tracker

[adam]

13 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

There was an article a few weeks back that we should trade Caleb too. LOL

Clickbait has changed the nature of sports reporting, and narratives take on a life of their own, and often bear no resemblance to the actual facts on the ground LOL

The good news is the final score is still the final score, and if we can control that, then they will write new stories about how we are supermen and cant fail. They will also be total BS, but theyll be more fun to read LOL

That is just silly talk. So check this out, looking up Caleb's stats, and I keep coming back to he is 1 of 1. There literally are no QBs ever to put up the stat line he is going to put up in their first 2 seasons. 

Right now, no QB has ever thrown for more than 7K Passing Yards with 40 Passing TDs, 500 Rushing Yards, with 20 or fewer INTs.

Williams is on pace for 7,500 Passing Yards, 45 Passing TDs, 900 Rushing Yards and 14 INT. He would not only beat that mark, he is going to crush it. He already has 5,677 Pass Yds, 33 TD, 735 Rush Yds, and 10 INT. 

QBs have had more passing yards, TDs, rushing yards, etc, but none have collectively put together such a well-rounded first two seasons ever. RG3 was close with 6400 Pass Yds, 36 TD, 17 INT, and 1,304 Rush Yds. 

[adam]

To add to that, if I strip away everything but Pass Yards and TDs, there have only been 8 QBs ever to pass for more than 7,500 Yards and 40 TDs in their first 2 seasons combined: Herbert, Luck, Winston, Newton, Manning, Stroud, Murray, and Mayfield. Of those QBs, only one had fewer than 20 INTs, Stroud who had 17. Williams is on pace for only 14, but all the while putting up numbers that beat even Marino and Burrow. 

Williams and Nix will be 9 and 10. 

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, adam said:

That is just silly talk. So check this out, looking up Caleb's stats, and I keep coming back to he is 1 of 1. There literally are no QBs ever to put up the stat line he is going to put up in their first 2 seasons. 

Right now, no QB has ever thrown for more than 7K Passing Yards with 40 Passing TDs, 500 Rushing Yards, with 20 or fewer INTs.

Williams is on pace for 7,500 Passing Yards, 45 Passing TDs, 900 Rushing Yards and 14 INT. He would not only beat that mark, he is going to crush it. He already has 5,677 Pass Yds, 33 TD, 735 Rush Yds, and 10 INT. 

QBs have had more passing yards, TDs, rushing yards, etc, but none have collectively put together such a well-rounded first two seasons ever. RG3 was close with 6400 Pass Yds, 36 TD, 17 INT, and 1,304 Rush Yds. 

 

2 hours ago, adam said:

To add to that, if I strip away everything but Pass Yards and TDs, there have only been 8 QBs ever to pass for more than 7,500 Yards and 40 TDs in their first 2 seasons combined: Herbert, Luck, Winston, Newton, Manning, Stroud, Murray, and Mayfield. Of those QBs, only one had fewer than 20 INTs, Stroud who had 17. Williams is on pace for only 14, but all the while putting up numbers that beat even Marino and Burrow. 

Williams and Nix will be 9 and 10. 

Amen!

[Alaskan Grizzly]

3 hours ago, adam said:

Herbert, Luck, Winston, Newton, Manning, Stroud, Murray, and Mayfield.

Interesting from that group how many are 1st Overall picks (5), how many have won the Heisman (4) and how many have won a SB (manning twice).  
 

I was thinking the other day how much Williams reminds me of Newton when he was playing with Carolina.  

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Interesting from that group how many are 1st Overall picks (5), how many have won the Heisman (4) and how many have won a SB (manning twice).  
 

I was thinking the other day how much Williams reminds me of Newton when he was playing with Carolina.  

I don’t remember Can ever throwing with the same kind of anticipation. 

[BearFan PHX]

Here's a chart of Caleb's numbers in his first two seasons playing vs. some greats and their first two seasons on the field.
 

What I like, is that his stats are right there, and we can see by eye that he isn't anywhere near his full potential.

You can see that a couple guys had monster years (like Mahomes and Marino) and then followed it up with a 2nd year more like Caleb's, and you can see that Rodgers benefitted from maturing ont he bench!

Mostly you can see that Caleb needs to get his completion percentage up in the 65% range, but he is pretty careful with the ball, his INTs are very low, and none of this includes his rushing yards and ability to escape the pass rush.
 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

5 hours ago, AZ54 said:

I don’t remember Can ever throwing with the same kind of anticipation. 

I suppose I'd need you to define what you mean when you say "anticipation"?  How is that measured?  

When I say he reminded me of Cam it was more about their similar charisma, ability to extend plays with their legs and the team around them during their earlier years. Carolina was never a year in year out playoff contender before Cam got there.  It took him 5 seasons to finally make the super bowl. Could Caleb be on the same timeline?  All the stats in the world can only get you so far. 

 

[Mongo3451]

Hope y'all can open this...🔥

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/17esnN6tKz/

[Stinger226]

12 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Hope y'all can open this...🔥

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/17esnN6tKz/

I like that. Hearing a few podcasts, they stated how strong his lower body must be to  not be taken down very easy. Has that 6th sense when players around him.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

I enjoyed hearing the press after today's practice since they get access to Caleb. They flat out ask him why he has good starts and ends but the middle is blah. They asked him about him abandoning the pocket sometimes too soon.  These are all things him and BJ are working on.  He said most times he is going thru reads too fast. Sees a guy starting to break a block and knows he has to move.  He will get this and once he gets the timing part down, that is when he is big time.  Right now, we see flashes especially at the end. He can play when pressed. 

[AZ54]

2 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I suppose I'd need you to define what you mean when you say "anticipation"?  How is that measured?  

When I say he reminded me of Cam it was more about their similar charisma, ability to extend plays with their legs and the team around them during their earlier years. Carolina was never a year in year out playoff contender before Cam got there.  It took him 5 seasons to finally make the super bowl. Could Caleb be on the same timeline?  All the stats in the world can only get you so far. 

 

You can pretty much grab any film review of the last few games and see  about half of Williams throws are being released before receivers make their break. He’s also moving safeties and LBs intentionally with his eyes knowing where he really wants to throw.  Watch the TD to Rome where he’s all alone in the end zone.  See the subtle fake to the outside route that gets both defenders to bite leaving Rome alone.  
 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XyeHR_Du4Y4&pp=ygUdY2FsZWIgd2lsbGlhbXMgZmlsbSBicmVha2Rvd24%3D

 

[AZ54]

34 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I enjoyed hearing the press after today's practice since they get access to Caleb. They flat out ask him why he has good starts and ends but the middle is blah. They asked him about him abandoning the pocket sometimes too soon.  These are all things him and BJ are working on.  He said most times he is going thru reads too fast. Sees a guy starting to break a block and knows he has to move.  He will get this and once he gets the timing part down, that is when he is big time.  Right now, we see flashes especially at the end. He can play when pressed. 

Caleb was mic’d up last game.  When he barely missed Rome on a deep route you hear them talking afterwards about if Rome was taking it upfield or flattening out.  There are still subtleties to work out between QB and WRs but each week it gets better.  

[BearFan PHX]

56 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

You can pretty much grab any film review of the last few games and see  about half of Williams throws are being released before receivers make their break. He’s also moving safeties and LBs intentionally with his eyes knowing where he really wants to throw.  Watch the TD to Rome where he’s all alone in the end zone.  See the subtle fake to the outside route that gets both defenders to bite leaving Rome alone.  
 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XyeHR_Du4Y4&pp=ygUdY2FsZWIgd2lsbGlhbXMgZmlsbSBicmVha2Rvd24%3D

 

right. you can see him doing all the little things. This is what they mean by feeding him with a fire hose. Theyve got him working on all these things - it's a lot, especially for a guy that never got coached this way before, and is still working on his footwork - starting with switching his forward foot from the snap.

But hes putting so much of it together. When the game slows down a little for him, he's gonna be a killer.

[Stinger226]

 

[Stinger226]

I never really like Phil Simms but I agree with his ranking.

 

[Bears4Ever_34]

Drake Maye has a lot of similarities to Jordan Love, in my opinion. He's very talented, and if he hits, I think he'll always be a fringe top 10 guy, but there's something about him that I don't trust.

Great deep ball thrower who has a good feel for hitting his checkdowns, but his decision making leaves a little to be desired at times, too. He's a little clumsy. Takes too many bad sacks, loses control of the football a lot, and has had a few Jordan Love-like gaffes in the redzone in his career.

Caleb is the more dynamic player. I'd still take his arm talent over Maye's, but he's just not as polished yet as a pocket passer. He's also less prone to mistakes and probably one of one in the NFL in terms of avoiding pressure. We're starting to see a little more college Caleb in that regard this year the way he's been toying with pass rushers.  

Maye deserves his flowers for how good he's been this year, but people are crazy if they think he's a real MVP candidate over guys like Stafford, Darnold, or even Jonathon Taylor. Unless Caleb falls off a cliff by the end of the year, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him take back the #1 QB of his class next year once Maye gets a 1st place schedule and faces stiffer competition.

Last year it was all about Daniels and Bo Nix with Maye and Caleb a distant 3rd and 4th. This year it's become mostly Drake Maye with Caleb a distant 2nd. Next year could be Caleb's year.

[adam]

On 11/12/2025 at 6:22 PM, BearFan PHX said:

Here's a chart of Caleb's numbers in his first two seasons playing vs. some greats and their first two seasons on the field.

What I like, is that his stats are right there, and we can see by eye that he isn't anywhere near his full potential.

You can see that a couple guys had monster years (like Mahomes and Marino) and then followed it up with a 2nd year more like Caleb's, and you can see that Rodgers benefitted from maturing ont he bench!

Mostly you can see that Caleb needs to get his completion percentage up in the 65% range, but he is pretty careful with the ball, his INTs are very low, and none of this includes his rushing yards and ability to escape the pass rush.
 

Rodgers was 25 in Year 4, in his first full season, but he may be the closest comp to Williams due to the low INT rate. Most of the other QBs listed outside of Mahomes threw a lot of INTs.

Manning had 28 INTs his rookie year (still crazy to think about), and had double-digit INTs in every season but 1 (when he had 9).

Brady didn't hit 4K passing yards until Year 6 and had double-digit INTs in his first 6 full seasons.

Marino peaked early (his best years were 2-4). He also threw a ton of INTs, hitting 20 per year in 4 out of 6 seasons.

[adam]

One thing to note. I think there is a perceived target on yards that is misleading. Averaging 270 Passing Yards a game would lead the league this year. That projects to 4,590 for the season. 

We haven't seen a 5K Passer since Mahomes in 2022. The league leaders the last two seasons were Burrow with 4918 and Tua with 4624. 

I really think the kickoff changes have impacted overall numbers. If you have 10-15 less yards available per drive, you are losing 40-60 yards per game of potential offense. That won't all be passing numbers, but if 70% of your yards are from passing, you are losing 30-40 yards per game by just having a shorter field after kickoffs. That equates to 500-700 yards per season. Not something I really considered. It obviously affects all players but 5K Passing seems a lot harder now than it was a few years ago.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Rodgers was 25 in Year 4, in his first full season, but he may be the closest comp to Williams due to the low INT rate. Most of the other QBs listed outside of Mahomes threw a lot of INTs.

Manning had 28 INTs his rookie year (still crazy to think about), and had double-digit INTs in every season but 1 (when he had 9).

Brady didn't hit 4K passing yards until Year 6 and had double-digit INTs in his first 6 full seasons.

Marino peaked early (his best years were 2-4). He also threw a ton of INTs, hitting 20 per year in 4 out of 6 seasons.

exactly. Caleb hasnt arrived, but he is clearly on the path. If he keeps improving, he should end up right next to those guys. This is the talent that made him a generational PROSPECT. With Johnson's help it's amazing to see him taking steps to fulfill it.

[BearFan PHX]

Here's an interesting stat:

The Jets are averaging a league low 139.9 passing yards per game. This is the lowest in the NFL since the 2022 Bears (130.5) - the common thread? Justin Fields is the QB.