Year 2 QB QBR Tracker

[adam]

The one flaw to QBR is that it takes Comp% into account too much. Nix had 182 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 INT, with a 4.8 Y/A, basically a bad game, and he had one of his highest QBR Ratings of the season with a 77.3. 

 

Week 17

 

1. Maye - 99.8 QBR - 256 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sack, 22 Rush Yds. 278 Total Yards. Won.
Season QBR: 76.5, 4203 yards, 30-8 TD-INT, 47 Sacks, 4 Rush TD. (16g)

 

2. Nix - 77.3 QBR - 182 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 Sack, 42 Rush Yds, Rush TD. 224 Total Yards. Won. 
Season QBR: 58.3, 3,790 yards, 25-11 TD-INT, 18 Sacks, 5 Rush TD. (16g)

 

3. Williams - 71.2 QBR - 330 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 0 Sacks, 18 Rush Tds. 348 Total Yards. Lost.
Season QBR: 58.1, 3,730 yards, 25-6 TD-INT, 23 Sacks, 3 Rush TD, 1 Rec TD. (16g)

 

 

[adam]

Caleb is 8th in Passing Yards, T-7th in Passing TDs, T-4th in INTs with a 90.3 QB Rating. 

Ultimately no need to keep track of his progress, he has arrived. This will be his worst season under Johnson statistically from here on out. 

[BearFan PHX]

7 hours ago, adam said:

Caleb is 8th in Passing Yards, T-7th in Passing TDs, T-4th in INTs with a 90.3 QB Rating. 

Ultimately no need to keep track of his progress, he has arrived. This will be his worst season under Johnson statistically from here on out. 

you could tell last week two - the game slowed down for him. he is becoming what he looked like he could become from the draft!

[DABEARSDABOMB]

7 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

you could tell last week two - the game slowed down for him. he is becoming what he looked like he could become from the draft!

Browns game is where it looked like he took another jump and it’s continued past two weeks. Hopefully we see that same trend and crazy part is I think he still has quite a bit of upside left which is what is most exciting. 
 

And he seems to really be putting in the extra work with Ben and his teammates. Almost feels like that lows of year 1 made him want everything even more and kind of pushed him to push himself like never before and combining that with a coach like BJ….match made!!! 

[BearFan PHX]

34 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Browns game is where it looked like he took another jump and it’s continued past two weeks. Hopefully we see that same trend and crazy part is I think he still has quite a bit of upside left which is what is most exciting. 
 

And he seems to really be putting in the extra work with Ben and his teammates. Almost feels like that lows of year 1 made him want everything even more and kind of pushed him to push himself like never before and combining that with a coach like BJ….match made!!! 

That's how I saw it too - the Browns game was the first one of this new level. And not just that crazy throw to Moore, but his footwork, how he was decisive, his timing, and his body language - you could see it slow down for him, and his accuracy has been a lot better from then on too.

I couldnt agree with you more.

[adam]

I still find it interesting that some people/media are not "sold" on Caleb yet. Like what else does this guy need to do? The Bears just won the NFC North and have a chance for the #2 seed. He is about to break the franchise Passing Yards record at 24 yrs old.

In most cases, he is neck and neck stat-wise with Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Trevor Lawrence, Jalen Hurts, and Bo Nix. The only QBs ahead of the pack are Stafford, Goff, Prescott, and Maye (the only QBs with 30+ TD Passes and 4K yards). 

However, he is elite with ball safety, basically breaking his own record with every attempt. With 3 more attempts, he will have the lowest INT rate for a QB in their first 1,100 attempts. He already has the record for the lowest with 1K attempts. 

The BEST PART, he is still not a finished product. I don't know if he will ever be a 70% Comp guy, but who cares? That is a good goal, but that is not the end all be all. Stafford is a career 63.5% Comp QB. However, he didn't hit 60% for his career until he was 27, in Year 7. All the while throwing double-digit INTs every season.  Josh Allen didn't hit 60% until Year 3. Tom Brady was under 62% until Year 8. Caleb is at 60.3% for his career already. I think 65% is a more realistic goal. 

At the start of the season, we were hoping for 40 or fewer sacks. He has 23 heading into Week 17 and hasn't been sacked in the last 2 games. He got sacked in every game last year. The wildest advanced stat on his sacks, Caleb has the lowest sack rate of any QB with 80+ sacks in his first two seasons. 

[Stinger226]

I think something great than no one talks about is he's never missed a game to Injuries. That's unique in this NFL these days.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, adam said:

I still find it interesting that some people/media are not "sold" on Caleb yet. Like what else does this guy need to do? The Bears just won the NFC North and have a chance for the #2 seed. He is about to break the franchise Passing Yards record at 24 yrs old.

I’ll answer on behalf of “some people.”  Your point is taken—yes, he’s done well and is clearly making solid progress toward bigger and better things. Without digging too deep into the weeds, but using some simple comparisons, I’ll just say this: we’ve been here before. And let it be known I won't deny the talent that Caleb so far has exhibited.  

Trubisky, in only his second year, won the NFC North and helped secure the #2 seed in 2018. (And in 2020, he technically got us back into the playoffs—albeit backing in at 8–8 as the #7 seed.)

Jay Cutler in his second year with Chicago, led the team to the NFC Championship Game in 2010.

Rex Grossman in his third year, got the Bears to the playoffs and their first Super Bowl appearance in 25 years.

Jim McMahon despite being injured during his second season (1984), QB’d the Bears to Super Bowl XX in his third year with the team.

What’s common among all these guys (aside from maybe Trubisky)?  They—and their teams—ultimately became one-hit wonders.

You’ve heard the phrase “once bitten, twice shy”? That’s me as a long suffering Bears fan. I love what’s happening right now, but I’ve been down this road too many times to assume it’ll last.

That said—and as I said at the beginning of this ramble—right here, right now, I’m genuinely enjoying the ride. I really hope I’m wrong and after this year, we continue to trend upwards.  

 

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

I think something great than no one talks about is he's never missed a game to Injuries. That's unique in this NFL these days.

True that.  How he wasn't injured after being sacked 60+ times last year is by itself amazing.  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, adam said:

I don't know if he will ever be a 70% Comp guy, but who cares?

This was a goal set by Johnson, not me.  He had it with Goff so that's his measure.  Will Caleb make it? I actually think he can.  

[adam]

2 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I’ll answer on behalf of “some people.”  Your point is taken—yes, he’s done well and is clearly making solid progress toward bigger and better things. Without digging too deep into the weeds, but using some simple comparisons, I’ll just say this: we’ve been here before. And let it be known I won't deny the talent that Caleb so far has exhibited.  

Trubisky, in only his second year, won the NFC North and helped secure the #2 seed in 2018. (And in 2020, he technically got us back into the playoffs—albeit backing in at 8–8 as the #7 seed.)

Jay Cutler in his second year with Chicago, led the team to the NFC Championship Game in 2010.

Rex Grossman in his third year, got the Bears to the playoffs and their first Super Bowl appearance in 25 years.

Jim McMahon despite being injured during his second season (1984), QB’d the Bears to Super Bowl XX in his third year with the team.

What’s common among all these guys (aside from maybe Trubisky)?  They—and their teams—ultimately became one-hit wonders.

You’ve heard the phrase “once bitten, twice shy”? That’s me as a long suffering Bears fan. I love what’s happening right now, but I’ve been down this road too many times to assume it’ll last.

That said—and as I said at the beginning of this ramble—right here, right now, I’m genuinely enjoying the ride. I really hope I’m wrong and after this year, we continue to trend upwards.  

 

That's fair, but Williams, Trubisky, and Fields are not in the same stratosphere. I can't tell you how many times we were told about Mitch going from 101 to 201, taking the training wheels off. I think we are well past that point with Williams. 

Williams is the first QB in NFL history to start a career with more than 7K Passing yards, 800 Rush yards, with more than 40 Pass TDs and fewer than 15 INTs through their first 33 games. One other QB has put up those numbers in a 33-game span in their entire careers, once by Josh Allen. Caleb has done it in his first 33 games.

With 229 Passing Yards, Caleb will hit 7,500 in his first two seasons. With one TD, he will be at 50 (Pass+Rush+Rec). With 24 Rushing Yards, he will hit 900. That would be over 8,400 Pass+Rush Yards in his first two years, averaging 4,200 per year with 25 TDs. Those are franchise QB numbers, and that's his floor.

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I’ll answer on behalf of “some people.”  Your point is taken—yes, he’s done well and is clearly making solid progress toward bigger and better things. Without digging too deep into the weeds, but using some simple comparisons, I’ll just say this: we’ve been here before. And let it be known I won't deny the talent that Caleb so far has exhibited.  

Trubisky, in only his second year, won the NFC North and helped secure the #2 seed in 2018. (And in 2020, he technically got us back into the playoffs—albeit backing in at 8–8 as the #7 seed.)

Jay Cutler in his second year with Chicago, led the team to the NFC Championship Game in 2010.

Rex Grossman in his third year, got the Bears to the playoffs and their first Super Bowl appearance in 25 years.

Jim McMahon despite being injured during his second season (1984), QB’d the Bears to Super Bowl XX in his third year with the team.

What’s common among all these guys (aside from maybe Trubisky)?  They—and their teams—ultimately became one-hit wonders.

You’ve heard the phrase “once bitten, twice shy”? That’s me as a long suffering Bears fan. I love what’s happening right now, but I’ve been down this road too many times to assume it’ll last.

That said—and as I said at the beginning of this ramble—right here, right now, I’m genuinely enjoying the ride. I really hope I’m wrong and after this year, we continue to trend upwards.  

 

 

I understand why you're cautious or cynical, after all we've been through, i understand your reluctance to buy in.

But this is different - Ben Johnson is clearly a different kind of coach, and the expectations for the offense are higher than we've seen here before.

Caleb's already got some real highlight film throws that the others on the list dont have. And he only learned how to drop correctly from center since May or June.

He's special avoiding pressure, and scrambling. He makes incredible off platform throws, and in the last couple weeks you can see his internal clock is calm. Hes operating within himself, and finding receivers on time, when they are open.

I dont begrudge you your caution - I'm just saying, come on in - the water is warm - it's safe to risk your heart again! LOL

If he keeps developing, there won't be much left to worry about. He's already right on the cusp of greatness.