Caleb...

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1AGng82ejy/

This is about as honest of a conversation that you can have with Caleb. He has the potential to be great but he isnt close to that yet. Trevor Lawrence was a #1 pick and he never even got to  top 10 status. Tape never lies, I dont trust Caleb to be great but I do trust Ben to get him where he needs to go. This year will go along way on the growth of our franchise QB for the good or bad. Im an optimism so I think it all works out but worry is a good word to use at this time in his career. 

[Pixote]

55 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

so much silliness.

youll see.

I hope we do.

[Mongo3451]

44 minutes ago, Pixote said:

I hope we do.

Me too and believe it will.  I don't want to see the Chernobyl event if it doesn't happen.

[BearFan PHX]

I think it's easy to look at Caleb right now and say it's not good enough. Because it's not. If this is his ceiling, then he is a bust.

And I understand the desire to see him perform now. But it's not realistic for several reasons.

1) It takes time for a QB to develop. Many great NFL QBs have looked terrible at first. The actual truth is that developing a top NFL QB takes time. Consider that only maybe 10 people on the planet can do what we are asking for. It's HARD. And it takes time to develop. It's not reasonable to expect it out of the gate. We see real flashes and drives where Caleb is operating in rhythm, so we know its there, and its coming. It just has to expand into more plays, and increased consistency. Thats different than bad QBs who dont have drives like the first two this past week.

2) Caleb had nothing around him last year, so this is like his rookie year. Hell, his current stats are in line with Goffs over his first 7 games with Ben Johnson, and Goff was in year 4? 5? This is almost like Calebs rookie year. He is doing FINE.

3) Media narratives drive this fantasy that Caleb is a bust. Since he knew he was the #1 pick, he didnt have an agent, remember? And that means no PR. And so the crying in his mothers arms, and fingernail painting, and not wanting to be a Bear and all that ran unchecked in the media without a PR to fight for the other side. As a result, Caleb is hated in a lot of the media and fan boys posting online I saw an actual article that the Bears should TRADE Caleb. wtf!

I see tons of evidence that Caleb can do what we all want him to do. He does it every week. He also has things fall apart too. It's not even always his fault, but when it is, thats a good teaching moment for Johnson.

At this point, if you are smart and reasonable, you have to ask these questions

1) Does Caleb have the innate skills to be a Top 5 QB? YES

2) Was he widely considered a #1 draft pick by almost everyone before the draft? YES

2) Does Caleb show flashes and drives where he looks like a top 5 QB? YES, almost every week.

3) Is Caleb improving every week? Absolutely.

4) Does Caleb have the coaches around him to teach him how to succeed? YES, one of the best in the league

I understand that 35 years of Bears fandom watching a trash team with mediocre QBs can create some patterns and expectations. We are trained to complain about our QB, and the one we have right now, is not complete yet, so it's easy to think we are int he same place we've been. But we arent. This is different. The evidence is right there in front of all our eyes on the game tape.

The question you ask at this point isnt "is he making mistakes?" because yes of course he is.

The question to ask is "do I see increasing evidence that he is going to be great?" and for me thats a solid YES. I dont think anyone can deny the good stuff. And thats proof he can do it.

A first year in an offense is about learning the offense, and learning consistency.

Also, it should be said that QBs like Jayden Daniels were brought into the league with a limited set of expectations by the OC, who simplified the playbook, and had success early that way. Johnson has said many times that he's feeding Caleb EVERYTHING. That means when consistency comes, Caleb will be great, while other QBs who have been successful in the short term, will still be needing to add to their game.

We all see its not good enough right now. But everything screams that this is nowhere near Caleb's ceiling. Be patient. He will be a top 5 QB in time.

[BearFan PHX]

And this quote from Ben Johnson:

"He played better this game than I think he had the previous two. When you look at it, all 60 minutes, and I’m not saying it’s perfect. I actually came away from watching the tape this morning, encouraged that we took a step in the right direction here this week. I know for some people it’s hard maybe to rationalize because the result wasn’t there. But yeah, I saw tangible growth from him. He’s working his tail off."

Some have said this is false praise meant to shield his QB from criticism, but it's so specific, and BJ hasnt done that once since hes been here.

I take him at face value. Caleb IS progressing, and we see what it looks like when it's working.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Decided to see what AI would come up with a well known generational talent (Peyton Manning) vs our current "GT" on the team and found some interesting trends.  The first search I did was of their rookie years and it showed that Peyton and Caleb were pretty similar in a lot of things, in fact their records were nearly identical, their passing yardage was roughly 200 yards apart, and TDs were 6 apart.  One glaring difference was when you looked at INTs.  Peyton had more INTs than did Caleb 28 to 6 and his passer rating was lower 71.2 to 87.8.   Caleb also led Peyton in number of sacks.  Take all that for what it's worth.

Then when you compare year two for them, this is what I found.  Keep in mind Peyton also led his team to the playoffs that year (but so did Trubisky...so there's that).

 

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Decided to see what AI would come up with a well known generational talent (Peyton Manning) vs our current "GT" on the team and found some interesting trends.  The first search I did was of their rookie years and it showed that Peyton and Caleb were pretty similar in a lot of things, in fact their records were nearly identical, their passing yardage was roughly 200 yards apart, and TDs were 6 apart.  One glaring difference was when you looked at INTs.  Peyton had more INTs than did Caleb 28 to 6 and his passer rating was lower 71.2 to 87.8.   Caleb also led Peyton in number of sacks.  Take all that for what it's worth.

Then when you compare year two for them, this is what I found.  Keep in mind Peyton also led his team to the playoffs that year (but so did Trubisky...so there's that).

 

Great find Grizz!

I took it a little further - I projected out Caleb's current 2025 Stats to 17 games.

And because Payton Manning only played 16 games in 1999, I also projected them out to 533 Attempts, which is how many Payton threw in 1999 to compare apples to apples.

Also, Caleb should grow the remainder of the year and have even better numbers.

People complaining about Caleb have a point that he is not a complete player, but Payton Manning was "generational" and this season that everyone is complaining about, sure looks a lot like Payton's 2nd season.

And if Caleb manages even the 3,910 yards, that would be the best season for a Bears QB in history.

And there's more progress to come for Caleb as he gets better!

If you think Caleb is terrible, or similar to Trubisky (best season = 3,223 yds) or Fields (best season = 2,562 yds), youre crazy.

 

[Mongo3451]

This is supposedly from Jimmy Mac.  I don't trust a lot these days. 

https://redzone.feji.io/blog/bears-legend-qb-jim-mcmahon-criticizes-caleb-williams-over-critical-weaknesses-behind-chicagos-humiliating-loss-to-ravens-mi4?fbclid=IwdGRzaANvo-FjbGNrA2-jbWV4dG4DYWVtAjExAAEeyTIo_l_wfW1j69e6EFBKhTUts-3D9OG-6vfPXcepEcnHPROXcxzNeQkRqVo_aem_3grBtUV07vhrJ5KZZHxjlA#mhcrolr9as5lkb8mvwc

[Alaskan Grizzly]

24 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

If you think Caleb is terrible, or similar to Trubisky (best season = 3,223 yds) or Fields (best season = 2,562 yds), youre crazy.

There are really two ways this can go…this season. He shows gradual and incremental improvement and matches or beats Trubisky and Mannings stats in their respective Sophomore years.  Or he doesn’t.  
 

Beyond this season, he’d need to continue to build and do better than Trubiksy (and not fall of a cliff) or pattern himself after the way Payton went.  Otherwise the comparisons will be what they will be.  

[BearFan PHX]

42 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

There are really two ways this can go…this season. He shows gradual and incremental improvement and matches or beats Trubisky and Mannings stats in their respective Sophomore years.  Or he doesn’t.  
 

Beyond this season, he’d need to continue to build and do better than Trubiksy (and not fall of a cliff) or pattern himself after the way Payton went.  Otherwise the comparisons will be what they will be.  

Of course. And Caleb isnt there yet. But he's on pace for greatness, he isn't late, or lagging behind. He's on time.

If any first round player in the NFL starts playing a lot more poorly than usual, then they will lose their job. If they never reached greatness they will be a bust. That's not just Caleb, but anyone. And there is zero data to think that Caleb will regress. He hasnt been regressing.

I think people just look at the performance of the entire offense, and blame Caleb. But his numbers say otherwise. And so does Ben Johnson.

What they've been is inconsistent. Every good offense needs to learn how to move the chains reliably, and so do we. Imagine how those numbers are going to jump when we get there. More points, yards, time of possession and snaps against a tired defense comes when your offense is consistent. That's what we need to improve on.

But Caleb just needs to cut down on the mistakes. It's not as if he isn't having plenty of plays where you can see who he's and where he is going. He's got star written all over him. And if he just performs at the level he's already at, and eliminates some mistakes, hes gonna be a top QB.

Fields and Trubisky never had seasons like Caleb even had last year. They weren't in the "eliminate mistakes" phase of their training, they were still stuck at "make reads and get the ball out" - they didnt do that regularly at all.

Honestly, it's crazy to compare them. You saw Manning above, Caleb is right there, We saw Troy Aikmans stats a couple weeks ago Caleb was killin him.

The difference is that over time Manning and Aikman and others ascended to greatness and won championships. Caleb hasn't achieved that yet, so until he does, I get it. 

But he isn't late. He isnt on the cusp of being a bust. its all there on the tape. He does it multiple times every week. He just has to stay hot for longer windows, and eliminate mistakes. 

Who says there is even a reason to predict he won't? Only dumb sportswriters who need controversy to get clicks, and narrative driven people, who think everything is a pattern. And also those put there int he internet that wanted to keep Fields, or have a problem with Caleb painting his fingernails.

It's superstition, stories, fear, hatred, whatever - but it isn't football analysis, or even in the stats.

We've got as young amazing QB here - we should be supporting him and cheering for him, instead of acting like the Bears are cursed and the sky is falling. Sheesh.