Caleb...

[Stinger226]

3 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1AGng82ejy/

This is about as honest of a conversation that you can have with Caleb. He has the potential to be great but he isnt close to that yet. Trevor Lawrence was a #1 pick and he never even got to  top 10 status. Tape never lies, I dont trust Caleb to be great but I do trust Ben to get him where he needs to go. This year will go along way on the growth of our franchise QB for the good or bad. Im an optimism so I think it all works out but worry is a good word to use at this time in his career. 

[Pixote]

55 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

so much silliness.

youll see.

I hope we do.

[Mongo3451]

44 minutes ago, Pixote said:

I hope we do.

Me too and believe it will.  I don't want to see the Chernobyl event if it doesn't happen.

[BearFan PHX]

I think it's easy to look at Caleb right now and say it's not good enough. Because it's not. If this is his ceiling, then he is a bust.

And I understand the desire to see him perform now. But it's not realistic for several reasons.

1) It takes time for a QB to develop. Many great NFL QBs have looked terrible at first. The actual truth is that developing a top NFL QB takes time. Consider that only maybe 10 people on the planet can do what we are asking for. It's HARD. And it takes time to develop. It's not reasonable to expect it out of the gate. We see real flashes and drives where Caleb is operating in rhythm, so we know its there, and its coming. It just has to expand into more plays, and increased consistency. Thats different than bad QBs who dont have drives like the first two this past week.

2) Caleb had nothing around him last year, so this is like his rookie year. Hell, his current stats are in line with Goffs over his first 7 games with Ben Johnson, and Goff was in year 4? 5? This is almost like Calebs rookie year. He is doing FINE.

3) Media narratives drive this fantasy that Caleb is a bust. Since he knew he was the #1 pick, he didnt have an agent, remember? And that means no PR. And so the crying in his mothers arms, and fingernail painting, and not wanting to be a Bear and all that ran unchecked in the media without a PR to fight for the other side. As a result, Caleb is hated in a lot of the media and fan boys posting online I saw an actual article that the Bears should TRADE Caleb. wtf!

I see tons of evidence that Caleb can do what we all want him to do. He does it every week. He also has things fall apart too. It's not even always his fault, but when it is, thats a good teaching moment for Johnson.

At this point, if you are smart and reasonable, you have to ask these questions

1) Does Caleb have the innate skills to be a Top 5 QB? YES

2) Was he widely considered a #1 draft pick by almost everyone before the draft? YES

2) Does Caleb show flashes and drives where he looks like a top 5 QB? YES, almost every week.

3) Is Caleb improving every week? Absolutely.

4) Does Caleb have the coaches around him to teach him how to succeed? YES, one of the best in the league

I understand that 35 years of Bears fandom watching a trash team with mediocre QBs can create some patterns and expectations. We are trained to complain about our QB, and the one we have right now, is not complete yet, so it's easy to think we are int he same place we've been. But we arent. This is different. The evidence is right there in front of all our eyes on the game tape.

The question you ask at this point isnt "is he making mistakes?" because yes of course he is.

The question to ask is "do I see increasing evidence that he is going to be great?" and for me thats a solid YES. I dont think anyone can deny the good stuff. And thats proof he can do it.

A first year in an offense is about learning the offense, and learning consistency.

Also, it should be said that QBs like Jayden Daniels were brought into the league with a limited set of expectations by the OC, who simplified the playbook, and had success early that way. Johnson has said many times that he's feeding Caleb EVERYTHING. That means when consistency comes, Caleb will be great, while other QBs who have been successful in the short term, will still be needing to add to their game.

We all see its not good enough right now. But everything screams that this is nowhere near Caleb's ceiling. Be patient. He will be a top 5 QB in time.

[BearFan PHX]

And this quote from Ben Johnson:

"He played better this game than I think he had the previous two. When you look at it, all 60 minutes, and I’m not saying it’s perfect. I actually came away from watching the tape this morning, encouraged that we took a step in the right direction here this week. I know for some people it’s hard maybe to rationalize because the result wasn’t there. But yeah, I saw tangible growth from him. He’s working his tail off."

Some have said this is false praise meant to shield his QB from criticism, but it's so specific, and BJ hasnt done that once since hes been here.

I take him at face value. Caleb IS progressing, and we see what it looks like when it's working.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Decided to see what AI would come up with a well known generational talent (Peyton Manning) vs our current "GT" on the team and found some interesting trends.  The first search I did was of their rookie years and it showed that Peyton and Caleb were pretty similar in a lot of things, in fact their records were nearly identical, their passing yardage was roughly 200 yards apart, and TDs were 6 apart.  One glaring difference was when you looked at INTs.  Peyton had more INTs than did Caleb 28 to 6 and his passer rating was lower 71.2 to 87.8.   Caleb also led Peyton in number of sacks.  Take all that for what it's worth.

Then when you compare year two for them, this is what I found.  Keep in mind Peyton also led his team to the playoffs that year (but so did Trubisky...so there's that).

 

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Decided to see what AI would come up with a well known generational talent (Peyton Manning) vs our current "GT" on the team and found some interesting trends.  The first search I did was of their rookie years and it showed that Peyton and Caleb were pretty similar in a lot of things, in fact their records were nearly identical, their passing yardage was roughly 200 yards apart, and TDs were 6 apart.  One glaring difference was when you looked at INTs.  Peyton had more INTs than did Caleb 28 to 6 and his passer rating was lower 71.2 to 87.8.   Caleb also led Peyton in number of sacks.  Take all that for what it's worth.

Then when you compare year two for them, this is what I found.  Keep in mind Peyton also led his team to the playoffs that year (but so did Trubisky...so there's that).

 

Great find Grizz!

I took it a little further - I projected out Caleb's current 2025 Stats to 17 games.

And because Payton Manning only played 16 games in 1999, I also projected them out to 533 Attempts, which is how many Payton threw in 1999 to compare apples to apples.

Also, Caleb should grow the remainder of the year and have even better numbers.

People complaining about Caleb have a point that he is not a complete player, but Payton Manning was "generational" and this season that everyone is complaining about, sure looks a lot like Payton's 2nd season.

And if Caleb manages even the 3,910 yards, that would be the best season for a Bears QB in history.

And there's more progress to come for Caleb as he gets better!

If you think Caleb is terrible, or similar to Trubisky (best season = 3,223 yds) or Fields (best season = 2,562 yds), youre crazy.

 

[Mongo3451]

This is supposedly from Jimmy Mac.  I don't trust a lot these days. 

https://redzone.feji.io/blog/bears-legend-qb-jim-mcmahon-criticizes-caleb-williams-over-critical-weaknesses-behind-chicagos-humiliating-loss-to-ravens-mi4?fbclid=IwdGRzaANvo-FjbGNrA2-jbWV4dG4DYWVtAjExAAEeyTIo_l_wfW1j69e6EFBKhTUts-3D9OG-6vfPXcepEcnHPROXcxzNeQkRqVo_aem_3grBtUV07vhrJ5KZZHxjlA#mhcrolr9as5lkb8mvwc

[Alaskan Grizzly]

24 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

If you think Caleb is terrible, or similar to Trubisky (best season = 3,223 yds) or Fields (best season = 2,562 yds), youre crazy.

There are really two ways this can go…this season. He shows gradual and incremental improvement and matches or beats Trubisky and Mannings stats in their respective Sophomore years.  Or he doesn’t.  
 

Beyond this season, he’d need to continue to build and do better than Trubiksy (and not fall of a cliff) or pattern himself after the way Payton went.  Otherwise the comparisons will be what they will be.  

[BearFan PHX]

7 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

There are really two ways this can go…this season. He shows gradual and incremental improvement and matches or beats Trubisky and Mannings stats in their respective Sophomore years.  Or he doesn’t.  
 

Beyond this season, he’d need to continue to build and do better than Trubiksy (and not fall of a cliff) or pattern himself after the way Payton went.  Otherwise the comparisons will be what they will be.  

Of course. And Caleb isn't there yet. But he's on pace for greatness, he isn't late, or lagging behind. He's on time.

If any first round player in the NFL starts playing a lot more poorly than usual, then they will lose their job. If they never reached greatness they will be a bust. That's not just Caleb, but anyone. And there is zero data to think that Caleb will regress. He hasn't been regressing.

I think people just look at the performance of the entire offense, and blame Caleb. But his numbers say otherwise. And so does Ben Johnson.

What they've been is inconsistent. Every good offense needs to learn how to move the chains reliably, and so do we. Imagine how those numbers are going to jump when we get there. More points, yards, time of possession and snaps against a tired defense comes when your offense is consistent. That's what we need to improve on.

But Caleb himself just needs to cut down on the mistakes, and stay focused. It's not as if he isn't having plenty of plays where you can see who he is and where he's going. He's got star written all over him. And if he just performs at the level he's already at, and eliminates some mistakes, hes gonna be a top QB.

Fields and Trubisky never had seasons like Caleb even already had last year. They weren't in the "eliminate mistakes" phase of their training, they were still stuck at "make reads and get the ball out" - they didn't do that regularly at all.

Honestly, it's crazy to compare them. You saw Manning above, Caleb is right there, We saw Troy Aikmans second year stats a couple weeks ago and Caleb was killin him.

The difference is that over time Manning and Aikman and others ascended to greatness and won championships. Caleb hasn't achieved that yet, so until he does, I get it.

But he isn't late. He isnt on the cusp of being a bust. its all there on the tape. He does it multiple times every week. He just has to stay hot for longer windows, and eliminate mistakes. 

Who says there is even a reason to predict he won't? Only dumb sportswriters who need controversy to get clicks, and narrative driven people, who think everything is a pattern. And also those out there on the internet that wanted to keep Fields, or have a problem with Caleb painting his fingernails.

It's superstition, stories, fear, hatred, whatever - but it isn't football analysis, or even in the stats.

We've got a young amazing QB here - we should be supporting him and cheering for him, instead of acting like the Bears are cursed and the sky is falling. Sheesh.

[Stinger226]

10 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

There are really two ways this can go…this season. He shows gradual and incremental improvement and matches or beats Trubisky and Mannings stats in their respective Sophomore years.  Or he doesn’t.  
 

Beyond this season, he’d need to continue to build and do better than Trubiksy (and not fall of a cliff) or pattern himself after the way Payton went.  Otherwise the comparisons will be what they will be.  

You hit on what will make Caleb great or another Trevor Lawrence i first player picked bust which doesnt mean bad but bad for the first pick. Its about improving and not repeating the same mistakes over and over. If he gradually gets down to below 2.5 seconds in releasing the ball at least he hits average NFL time. I think as of right now its 2.53 seconds release time. Accuracy either gets better or not, same pace as last year. No one is giving up on his talent but if he doesnt progress with the mental part of the game by the end of the year there will be doubts. Trubisky didnt get better, Fields didnt get better. The tape will show if Caleb gets better. 

The two things that bothered me the most about the last game was the time wasted between plays, down to the wire to much, and seemed rushed. Plus the decision to not run out of bounds at the end of the game when you were under 1 minute. 

[Stinger226]

11 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

This is supposedly from Jimmy Mac.  I don't trust a lot these days. 

https://redzone.feji.io/blog/bears-legend-qb-jim-mcmahon-criticizes-caleb-williams-over-critical-weaknesses-behind-chicagos-humiliating-loss-to-ravens-mi4?fbclid=IwdGRzaANvo-FjbGNrA2-jbWV4dG4DYWVtAjExAAEeyTIo_l_wfW1j69e6EFBKhTUts-3D9OG-6vfPXcepEcnHPROXcxzNeQkRqVo_aem_3grBtUV07vhrJ5KZZHxjlA#mhcrolr9as5lkb8mvwc

I never read anything from Jimmy Mac anymore but he is not wrong on what he pointed out as flaws. The awareness of the reality of the moment late in games doesn't have anything to do  with his great arm and throwing ability. These are the decision making traits that will make him great or a first player taken bust. Its to early in his development to quit on or praise as a great QB. We just have to let this year play out. 

[AZ54]

https://www.windycitygridiron.com/xs-and-os-chicago-bears-playbook-scheme-nfl-offense-defense-game-plan/101728/caleb-williams-week-8-qb-grade-bears-ravens
 

i have to wait until I get home to drop dice this but this mirrors the two breakdown videos I’ve seen of Caleb  against Baltimore.  Those were Took Jenkins and Chase.  One interesting point Chase made about the second grounding call.  Loveland on that route has a two way go depending DB alignment.  DB had inside leverage so Loveland should have taken the out.  Caleb read it that way and threw the ball to nobody when Loveland literally ran into the DB and forced his way inside.  

[BearFan PHX]

32 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

https://www.windycitygridiron.com/xs-and-os-chicago-bears-playbook-scheme-nfl-offense-defense-game-plan/101728/caleb-williams-week-8-qb-grade-bears-ravens
 

i have to wait until I get home to drop dice this but this mirrors the two breakdown videos I’ve seen of Caleb  against Baltimore.  Those were Took Jenkins and Chase.  One interesting point Chase made about the second grounding call.  Loveland on that route has a two way go depending DB alignment.  DB had inside leverage so Loveland should have taken the out.  Caleb read it that way and threw the ball to nobody when Loveland literally ran into the DB and forced his way inside.  

Amen. This is a fair and balanced take on Caleb's performance this week. It puts everything, the good, bad and ugly into context of WHY things happened.

People watch a game where we lose, and then grumble, and they really arent looking into what actually happened and why. It's fan stuff, I understand it, but it's not football stuff.

[Stinger226]

4 hours ago, AZ54 said:

https://www.windycitygridiron.com/xs-and-os-chicago-bears-playbook-scheme-nfl-offense-defense-game-plan/101728/caleb-williams-week-8-qb-grade-bears-ravens
 

i have to wait until I get home to drop dice this but this mirrors the two breakdown videos I’ve seen of Caleb  against Baltimore.  Those were Took Jenkins and Chase.  One interesting point Chase made about the second grounding call.  Loveland on that route has a two way go depending DB alignment.  DB had inside leverage so Loveland should have taken the out.  Caleb read it that way and threw the ball to nobody when Loveland literally ran into the DB and forced his way inside.  

What I find interesting is these are the same people that liked Fields during his tender here. People I posted that said positive things about Justin's game. I value their opinion because , like me, I look at the positives of a player. 

[BearFan PHX]

If an opinion is always positive, then it isn't actually an opinion, its just always positive.

Do you like sushi? "yum!"
Do you like steak? "yum!"
Do you like dog poop? "yum!"

If the positivity is independent of the thing being opined on, then it isn't an opinion on the thing.

Anyway, I never saw Fields do what Caleb does multiple times every week in terms of playing in rhythm. And Field's numbers were never anywhere near Calebs numbers, even Caleb's 2024 numbers. Fields is an absolute bust. Caleb is doing fine.

They simply arent anything like each other at all - these narratives are crazy!

[Mongo3451]

55 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

What I find interesting is these are the same people that liked Fields during his tender here. People I posted that said positive things about Justin's game. I value their opinion because , like me, I look at the positives of a player. 

I believe the whole point of the conversation is that Caleb needs to grow up.  If anyone disagrees with that, they are wrong.  The same was said about Mitch and Justin.  While the skills may differ, the growth potential remains the wish.  All three, at this point in their careers, had hope, upside and time on their side.  You'll never win this argument with anyone overly supporting one opinion over the other.  Some mindsets love to learn and converse with others, while others don't.  Caleb is Uber talented and currently flawed.  It's not for dispute.  The degree to which this is correct can be argued ad nauseum.

[Stinger226]

4 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

I believe the whole point of the conversation is that Caleb needs to grow up.  If anyone disagrees with that, they are wrong.  The same was said about Mitch and Justin.  While the skills may differ, the growth potential remains the wish.  All three, at this point in their careers, had hope, upside and time on their side.  You'll never win this argument with anyone overly supporting one opinion over the other.  Some mindsets love to learn and converse with others, while others don't.  Caleb is Uber talented and currently flawed.  It's not for dispute.  The degree to which this is correct can be argued ad nauseum.

So many players have upside when  their young and some play well their first yr, (Daniels), their second yr (Mayes) and some take longer. I think it takes 3 yrs to find the level of a player. The tape doesnt lie, Caleb isnt there yet and I think its mostly a mental thing with him. The problem that is the part of the game that will end up making him great or a draft another QB moment. I root for him just like I did Mitch and Justin. 

Ever since I blocked PHX it has been very peaceful not seeing his responses anymore and Im sure he's back to writing his little novels on his opinion about Caleb. Im sure some  where along the way he has found something negative  to say about me . Someone needed to be the adult in the room and bail from that chaos created between us. It's nice to know you wont let him get away with his ( I'm smarter than you) attitude when all it is a difference of opinions.

[BearFan PHX]

Two of you tryin to start something, but Im really not interested.

There is nothing wrong with anything Ive written here about Caleb and Justin. It's all reasonable opinion, and I cited the facts it's based on, so someone could debate those if they wanted to.

If someone is butthurt that I said to think Caleb and Justin are similar is "crazy", then I think that's a little thin skinned to be honest. Or maybe they just want to feign offense and flex - either way, it's dumb and childish.

When Caleb reaches that next point, all the Justin lovers and Caleb haters will still have stuff to say I guess. But honestly it's embarrassing at this point. Cant you see what Caleb is becoming? It's right there in front of our eyes! Sheesh.

I said I'd leave this alone, but of course that is all contingent on how much crap comes my way too. Im not gonna just sit while others rage. So, we'll see what kind of board they really want. I say, let's keep it civil.

I'd remind us all too that it was several months that I kept saying I wanted to keep things civil at the start of all this before I started punching back and this all blew up in the first place. All we have to do is play nice.