Week 18 Official Game Thread - DET @ CHI, SUN, 3:25PM, JAN 4th, CHI -2.5, O/U 49.5, FOX

[ASHKUM BEAR]

12 minutes ago, jason said:

I’ve been wondering why his targets are so down. He definitely looks replaceable at this point.

Burden, Odunze, Walker, Loveland, and Monongai are a good core to go forward with.  Id keep Kmet and find the best way to move Moore with the least amount of dead cap hit.  On D, wonder if Raiders would take Sweat as part of a Crosby trade. They need a different D next season. 

[BearFan PHX]

Kmet is right on the edge of his cap number, but he does do some good things for us.

If they think they can get what he gives them from another younger cheaper guy, I support them moving him. If they think he's worth it, I'll understand that too.

Players I'd seriously look at trading, cutting, not resigning or demoting to backup include

Jaylon Johnson
DJ Moore (trade only, cant cut him)
Tremaine Edmunds
Montez Sweat (if you are replacing him with a stud)
Andrew Billings
Grady Jarett
Joquan Brisker
Dayo Odeyingbo
Nick McCloud
Devin Duvernay
Gervon Dexter

Core Players for next year:

Caleb (2)
The OL (1xR)
Coleston Loveland (R)
Rome Odunze (2)
Luther Burden (R)
Monangai (R)
Maybe Swift too

Offense = 4 rookies core players, 2 x 2nd year players

Austin Booker (2 - not a DE1)
Kevin Byard
TJ Edwards?

Defense = 1 second year player, no playmakers

I think it's going to be a wild ride on the defensive side of the ball this offseason - I would expect surprises and a lot of activity.
 

[BearFan PHX]

Trade with Raiders or Browns: JJ, DJ Moore, Sweat, and they HAVE to take Jarrett and Deyo too for Crosby/Garrett and a 3rd

It's a joke, but to get all those players off the books, it'd be pretty sweet.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

3 hours ago, jason said:

He definitely looks replaceable at this point.

Unfortunately I think you’re right.  Burden is nearly the identical player who is younger and cheaper.  

[Stinger226]

I totally understand the need to get more Cap space for more help for our defense. 

Find me teams that want expensive Kmet or DJ after having mediocre yrs? Cleveland and Vegas are rebuilding so I would assume they would want draft picks. Cleveland doesn't have any cap space so they want to dump Cap not add to it. Vegas has plenty of space and have Bowers and Mayer at TE, no trading for Kmet.  They have the money to sign George Pickens to go with a drafted QB. I would rather pay 30 mil to Pickens (younger) than 28.5 mil to DJ.

It's a good draft for WRs maybe they might draft one. 

Trade anybody but find me someone that logically would take on their salary?

 

[AZ54]

Any team that wants Pickens attitude and a 30mil cap hit deserves him. It’s gonna be a desperate GM to make that decision.  When you can get DJ cheaper with less headaches in the locker room you should do that.  The Bears have already paid his bonus so the receiving team in the deal should have a much better contract and not the 28 mil cap hit the Bears carry.  

[Stinger226]

7 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Any team that wants Pickens attitude and a 30mil cap hit deserves him. It’s gonna be a desperate GM to make that decision.  When you can get DJ cheaper with less headaches in the locker room you should do that.  The Bears have already paid his bonus so the receiving team in the deal should have a much better contract and not the 28 mil cap hit the Bears carry.  

All of that sounds good but as a lot of people have mentioned, he had a mediocre season. That doesn't enhance his trade value. Find me a realistic trade scenario and I'll jump on the bandwagon. My premise is I don't think 20 teams fighting over trading for DJ will happen. Maybe Carolina will want him back? Dallas will need to replace Pickens? It's just not that easy to make those kind of trades.

[BearFan PHX]

18 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Any team that wants Pickens attitude and a 30mil cap hit deserves him. It’s gonna be a desperate GM to make that decision.  When you can get DJ cheaper with less headaches in the locker room you should do that.  The Bears have already paid his bonus so the receiving team in the deal should have a much better contract and not the 28 mil cap hit the Bears carry.  

right. someone would trade for DJ, the question is what they would trade, not whether there would be a market.

[Lucky Luciano]

10 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:

Players I'd seriously look at trading, cutting, not resigning or demoting to backup include

Jaylon Johnson
DJ Moore (trade only, cant cut him)
 

not sure what johnson's problem is. if injured and will come back healthy next year 'maybe' a keeper. if not seriously injured he is the top of the list for a trade or cut. he looks pathetic out there. right now he could be replaced by macloud and that is saying a whole lot.

i know everyone wants moore traded etc..... to me he is one of the keepers. if nothing else he is tough as nails and plays which i can't say for the rest of our receiving squad. think of the games missed by every receiver but him. during an entire season that adds up. he is earning every dollar he makes.

that said, i think he is nursing some injuries and that cheap shot by the packers surely didn't help.

i rate kmet in the same category as moore. can take a licking and keeps on ticking. reliable starter.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, Lucky Luciano said:

i know everyone wants moore traded etc..... to me he is one of the keepers. if nothing else he is tough as nails and plays which i can't say for the rest of our receiving squad. think of the games missed by every receiver but him. during an entire season that adds up. he is earning every dollar he makes.

I think you may be onto something.  There is something to be said about durability esp in the NFL.  And he has shown that given how much he’s making.  And really how many times have we seen him standing open?  
 

I’d concede to the idea that if he had some high trade value and you could get some valuable commodity (player or pick) you’d almost have to take it in order to improve the defense.  

[Mongo3451]

3 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I think you may be onto something.  There is something to be said about durability esp in the NFL.  And he has shown that given how much he’s making.  And really how many times have we seen him standing open?

They say, "the best ability is availability".  That being said, that does not apply to DJ.  He has been generally non productive commensurate to his availability.  He's either injured or clearly lost a step.  With the emergence or Burden and Walker, I believe he is gone if someone wants him.  Rome, Burden and Walker make a good threesome.  I would even keep OZ and Duvernay if the price is right.

[adam]

26 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

They say, "the best ability is availability".  That being said, that does not apply to DJ.  He has been generally non productive commensurate to his availability.  He's either injured or clearly lost a step.  With the emergence or Burden and Walker, I believe he is gone if someone wants him.  Rome, Burden and Walker make a good threesome.  I would even keep OZ and Duvernay if the price is right.

The Bears need someone who can take the top off the defense. Right now safeties can really crowd the box and make intermediate passes and rushing that much more difficult because they don't have to worry about anyone running by them. 

[BearFan PHX]

The idea isnt that Moore is bad - no one is saying he has to go because he is terrible!

The argument is that he is redundant with all the WRs we have, and especially with Luther Burden. Does DJ Moore add something? Absolutely! But we are paying him $28.5M a year! And since we can play without him, that money needs to go to the D line, as well as any picks we might get from trading him.

His 682 yards for $28.5M = almost $42,000 a yard. Come on. It's not that 682 is so bad, its that $28.5M is too much!

We simply cant afford to pay $28.5M a year to a guy who is a luxury when our defense is made of tissue paper.

So no one is saying that Moore sucks or dosnt bring something, it's just too much value at one position and not enough at others?

[adam]

1 hour ago, BearFan PHX said:

The idea isnt that Moore is bad - no one is saying he has to go because he is terrible!

The argument is that he is redundant with all the WRs we have, and especially with Luther Burden. Does DJ Moore add something? Absolutely! But we are paying him $28.5M a year! And since we can play without him, that money needs to go to the D line, as well as any picks we might get from trading him.

His 682 yards for $28.5M = almost $42,000 a yard. Come on. It's not that 682 is so bad, its that $28.5M is too much!

We simply cant afford to pay $28.5M a year to a guy who is a luxury when our defense is made of tissue paper.

So no one is saying that Moore sucks or dosnt bring something, it's just too much value at one position and not enough at others?

Yeah, if he was head and shoulders above the others in terms of playtime, targets, and production, then you keep him. However, like you have pointed out, the cap is a finite resource, and you have to squeeze every ounce out of it, so a cap hit of $28.5M is about double what he should be making for that type of production. He has the 13th highest contract AAV for a WR. For that, he should be at least in the top 20-25 across the major categories (considering rookie deals). He is 40th in receptions, 39th in Yards, 49th in Yards/Target, and 87th in Catch% amongst only WRs. 

Then when you consider pass catching options, Loveland, Burden, and Odunze would be the top 3 going forward. That's makes Moore very expendable. There have already been concerns about attitude, body language, and normally where there is smoke there is fire. 

It is hard to argue with the dropoff. Just in targets alone he dropped from a consistent 120-160 target WR to 85. Obviously that impacts his potential, but the catch% is way too low. He had 5x 100-yard games in 2023, but hasn't had one in his last 23 games. His max targets in a game this year is 7. He had 11 games with 8+ last year including a game with 16 targets. 

The Wild Card game will probably be a huge indicator for the team going forward. Who are they calling plays for, who is getting open, and who are getting targets. If Moore ends up with only 4-5 targets, to me that says all you need to know about his future. You don't pay close to $30M for 4-5 targets in the most important game of the season so far.

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, adam said:

Yeah, if he was head and shoulders above the others in terms of playtime, targets, and production, then you keep him. However, like you have pointed out, the cap is a finite resource, and you have to squeeze every ounce out of it, so a cap hit of $28.5M is about double what he should be making for that type of production. He has the 13th highest contract AAV for a WR. For that, he should be at least in the top 20-25 across the major categories (considering rookie deals). He is 40th in receptions, 39th in Yards, 49th in Yards/Target, and 87th in Catch% amongst only WRs. 

Then when you consider pass catching options, Loveland, Burden, and Odunze would be the top 3 going forward. That's makes Moore very expendable. There have already been concerns about attitude, body language, and normally where there is smoke there is fire. 

It is hard to argue with the dropoff. Just in targets alone he dropped from a consistent 120-160 target WR to 85. Obviously that impacts his potential, but the catch% is way too low. He had 5x 100-yard games in 2023, but hasn't had one in his last 23 games. His max targets in a game this year is 7. He had 11 games with 8+ last year including a game with 16 targets. 

The Wild Card game will probably be a huge indicator for the team going forward. Who are they calling plays for, who is getting open, and who are getting targets. If Moore ends up with only 4-5 targets, to me that says all you need to know about his future. You don't pay close to $30M for 4-5 targets in the most important game of the season so far.

right! DJ is a talented WR, but he is just way too expensive.

[Stinger226]

Everyone has different opinions on players if we all agreed on everything this would be a boring discussion board. 

DJ has not had a good year compared to past performances but when you have many elite weapons, no one has had a great year. 

That puts him in the position to be odd man out. I personally think they keep him one more year and won't be here in 27. 

Look at SF as an example, lots of people hurt and they still keep winning because they have good depth. I think just as we get a top 10 offense, they are not going to dismantle  it. DJ will have more value as an in season trade prospect as other teams have injury problems. This gives us the ability to have both Rome and Burden a chance to grow their roles. If anyone was paying attention both have been injured this year. Injuries happen every year and BJ is not taking away assets ( DJ and Kmet) that could stunt the growth of Caleb in which should be his breakout year.

I think there will be a big shift on defense that could see a lot of new faces. I think Edmunds is gone but a few starters will also leave as we rebuild a defense thru DAs scheme. They will redo some contracts and cut and trade a few players but on defense. The draft will be a big contribution to what we do. This draft could all be on defense this year. 

These are what I project the bears will do. They could surprise me and go after a Crosby type but I don't think we are one player away from a great defense. 

Some contracts will prohibit us from getting rid of  them this year but big roster change are coming in 27.