GB @ CHI, Wild Card Weekend, JAN 10th, Sat 7pm, Amazon Prime, CHI -1.5, O/U 46.5

[Mongo3451]

I bet games every week.  If anyone looks at Monday and Tuesday they can see the Bears were -1 to -1.5 via Draft Kings and MGM.  It's not worth the useless dialog...

[Stinger226]

27 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

I bet games every week.  If anyone looks at Monday and Tuesday they can see the Bears were -1 to -1.5 via Draft Kings and MGM.  It's not worth the useless dialog...

Those are the same betting sites I use. Once I leave the country, I can't access those sites, I have a friend make bets for me. I am normally down this time of year but for some reason I'm 300 up. The bear's luck has rubbed off on me.

[Stinger226]

Getting back to the game, we should win this game but we have played GB down to the end of the game in both other games. I suspect that will happen this time. Home field should give us an advantage.

[Mongo3451]

12 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

Those are the same betting sites I use. Once I leave the country, I can't access those sites, I have a friend make bets for me. I am normally down this time of year but for some reason I'm 300 up. The bear's luck has rubbed off on me.

Same here.  I bet a parlay every week and have won more than I should.  Plus, I have a big money fantasy football league that I was fortunate to have won.  We've done that league for for 27 years.  Same guys.  We're blessed to have lasted that long.

[Stinger226]

I decorated the condo, would you guess I am a bear's fan?

[adam]

Here is what some AIs think of the game, just for fun, not that they mean anything, but I do like them coming up with key factors on their own.

Gemini:

Based on the current NFL landscape for the 2025-2026 Wild Card round, here is an analysis and prediction for the game.

Game Snapshot
Matchup: Green Bay Packers (9-7-1) at Chicago Bears (11-6)

Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL

Time: Saturday, January 10, 2026, 7:00 PM CT

Context: This is the third meeting of the season. They split the regular season series, but the Bears won the most recent critical matchup in Week 16 (22-16 in OT).

Key Factors
1. The Momentum Disparity The trajectories of these two teams could not be more different. The Bears finished the season strong to clinch the NFC North, securing their first division title since 2018. Conversely, the Packers are "limping" into the playoffs, having lost four straight games (Weeks 15-18). Historically, teams entering the playoffs on such a cold streak struggle to flip the switch, especially on the road.

2. The Micah Parsons Loss The loss of Micah Parsons to season-ending surgery is catastrophic for the Packers' pass rush. Parsons was the "queen on the chessboard" for defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley. Without his ability to wreck game plans, the Packers' defense (which surrendered 41 points to the Ravens and 30+ to the Broncos during this losing streak) will struggle to pressure Caleb Williams. This puts immense pressure on the Packers' secondary to cover for longer periods.

3. Jordan Love's Return vs. Bears Defense While Jordan Love insists he has "zero concerns" about rust, missing the last two weeks with a concussion is significant. He is returning to face a Bears defense that led the NFL in takeaways (33) this season. In their Week 16 matchup, Love left the game early, but the Bears' defense was already stifling the Packers' attack. If Love is even a split-second slow in his processing, the Bears' opportunistic secondary is likely to capitalize.

4. The Soldier Field Advantage The atmosphere at Soldier Field on a Saturday night in January will be hostile. The Bears have not hosted a playoff game in years, and the crowd will be energized by the chance to knock out their arch-rivals. Caleb Williams has shown significant growth in Year 2, and the Bears' run game has been effective enough to control the clock in cold weather.

Prediction: Chicago Bears Win
The cards are stacked against Green Bay. They are traveling to a hostile environment, missing their best defensive player, starting a quarterback returning from a head injury, and reeling from a month of losing football. The Bears, meanwhile, have found their identity under head coach Ben Johnson and have the defensive personnel to make life miserable for a rusty Packers offense.

Expect the Bears to rely on their run game and defense to control the tempo. Green Bay may keep it close early on emotion, but the absence of Parsons will eventually allow the Bears' offense to pull away in the second half.

Predicted Score: Chicago Bears 24, Green Bay Packers 17

[adam]

Grok:

Based on the provided scenario for this 2025 NFL Wild Card matchup at Soldier Field, the Chicago Bears have several advantages that tilt the scales in their favor. They boast a stronger regular-season record (11-6 vs. 9-7-1), home-field advantage in a cold-weather venue where they've performed well (6-2 at home), and momentum from their recent 22-16 overtime victory over the Packers just three weeks ago in the same stadium. That game showcased Chicago's opportunistic defense, which led the NFL in takeaways (33) and turnover differential (+22), forcing key mistakes while allowing the Bears to rally from a 10-point deficit late.

The Packers are entering on a four-game losing streak, with their defense severely compromised since losing edge rusher Micah Parsons to a torn ACL in Week 15—he led the team with 12.5 sacks, and Green Bay has allowed the most rushing yards per game (170.8) in the league since his absence, with only three sacks total in that span. While Jordan Love returns after missing the last 2.5 games due to a concussion (he's cleared protocol and reports no rust concerns), his layoff could lead to early timing issues against a Bears secondary that snagged a league-high 23 interceptions. Love's 2025 stats were solid (66.3% completion, 3,831 yards, 23 TDs, 6 INTs in 15 games), but Chicago's pass rush and ball-hawking could exploit any hesitation.

Offensively, Bears QB Caleb Williams (3,942 yards, 27 TDs, 7 INTs) has thrived in clutch moments with six fourth-quarter comebacks, supported by a balanced run game featuring D'Andre Swift (1,087 yards) and Kyle Monangai (783 yards)—the only tandem with 750+ yards each. Green Bay's run defense ranks near the bottom, setting up Chicago to control the clock and limit Love's opportunities. The Packers' offense, led by a healthy Josh Jacobs and receivers like Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Jayden Reed, remains potent, but Chicago's ability to force turnovers (they're 9-1 when holding opponents under 25 points) should keep this close yet decisive.

Predicted outcome: Bears win, advancing to the Divisional Round.

Predicted score: Bears 27, Packers 23. (This aligns with recent rivalry trends of one-score games and the 45.5 over/under, expecting defensive plays but enough offensive fireworks from both QBs.)

[Stinger226]

Logic will say we should win but we know logic doesn't apply to every game in the NFL. We had. 1% chance to win the last Packers game with 2 minutes left. 

I think we will be focused and please be physical. Run the ball and keep the control of the game in our favor. Love will turn the ball over, let it count.

[BearFan PHX]

Logic says it will be a hard fought game. No one is the obvious clear favorite here.

I hope we kick their ass, but let's not crown them yet? We gotta earn this one.

[Mongo3451]

Rome, Braxton, Kyler, Jahdae and Ozzy were full participants today.  Burden is not even on the injury report.  CJGJ dnp and will likely be out with concussion.

[BearFan PHX]

47 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Rome, Braxton, Kyler, Jahdae and Ozzy were full participants today.  Burden is not even on the injury report.  CJGJ dnp and will likely be out with concussion.

All good news. And as long as Kyler Gordon can stay in there and be effective, we probably wont miss CJGJ Saturday.

[AZ54]

52 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:

All good news. And as long as Kyler Gordon can stay in there and be effective, we probably wont miss CJGJ Saturday.

The Packers will miss CJGJ.  He was their favorite target.  

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

The Packers will miss CJGJ.  He was their favorite target.  

lol yes

[Stinger226]

I heard the weather could be bad, more reason to run, run, run.  

[AZ54]

Rome is back.  We now have him, Loveland, Burden, Moore, and a RB to cover.   In the last game the Packers brought down a safety to shutdown our running game.  I don’t see how they can afford to do that without giving up some big plays.  Or they keep both safeties back and we run.  

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

Or they keep both safeties back and we run.  

can can can

[adam]

GB Defense is still not the same without Parsons. Offense is less efficient without Kraft. Bears 6-2 at home, Packers 4-4-1 on the road. 

Using the last 4 games, the Bears have a distinct advantage, Congunkulator is showing a 6-point victory, 27-21. Whoever scores more than 21 first wins. 

[BearFan PHX]

4 hours ago, adam said:

GB Defense is still not the same without Parsons. Offense is less efficient without Kraft. Bears 6-2 at home, Packers 4-4-1 on the road. 

Lets Go!