akshaz Posted January 21, 2009 Report Share Posted January 21, 2009 It is interesting how Mike Brown gets a pass for the huge mistake he made in the Atlanta game, among others. Then there's the philosophy that he is so valuable because he helps line everyone up. Well he didn't line up the CB on that one play and that was an easy call to make. Ohhhh.....and you guys trust that Daniel Manning will make the right calls.......I get it. Look, Mike Brown is not the guy he used to be and he's surely not perfect. But for some reason, nobody has been able to identify a better alternative for us at safety. BTW, check the record, what happened in Atlanta wasn't Mike Brown's fault. He came to try to make up for that kid from Tampa's bad decision to jump the short route instead of covering the deeper receiver. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfoligno Posted January 21, 2009 Report Share Posted January 21, 2009 I simply see now way he gets $10/year, and frankly, doubt he gets $8m/year. As Ashkum pointed out, OTs have been signing deals closer to the $6m/yr range. And I have to disagree on talent being scarce at the position this year. While I won't say it is loaded, I would say there is more talent at the OT position than in most others I have looked at, and Carey is not at the top. That could change if players above him start getting tagged or re-signed prior to FA, but even then, I think $10m/yr is a pipe dream. Okay, I was just getting it from nfldraftscout.com. Since you can't copy and paste from there, I'll type the quote: "1/14/09- RT Vernon Carey made a seamless transition from the left to right side and is one of the Dolphins' five key free agents that they need to make a decision on. Carey, a Miami native, may give the team a hometown discount, but not too much. He could command a $10 million-per-year deal because of the scarcity of talent at the position". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfoligno Posted January 21, 2009 Report Share Posted January 21, 2009 Carey hopes free agency leads to a contract similar to the one another former UM alum, Eric Winston, received this season from the Texans. Winston, also a right tackle, reportedly received $30 million over five years, with $10 million guaranteed. I think this is what Brianbear is referring to. Not 10/year, but 10 guaranteed over 5 years. I am not sure whether Winston's deal would be a good barameter. His was an extension, right? Not only that, but he has only played 3 seasons, and thus if he signed a new deal, it would have been w/ a couple years left on his original deal. Thus, he likely didn't sign market value. Thanks for the research on the OTs though. Looking at these deals, I would be shocked if Carey got $8m/yr, much less $10m. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfoligno Posted January 21, 2009 Report Share Posted January 21, 2009 Regarding Tait, I could be wrong, but I could swear a chunk of his bonus was in the form of a roster bonus. As I recall, he was slapped w/ the transition tag, and we offered him a bit of a poison pill deal, with the deal heavily front loaded. KC didn't have much cap space that year, and was not able to match the deal because it was front loaded. Not arguing the numbers, but simply pointing out that I believe a chunk of his bonus was roster, which would not still be applied today. As for Wale, I have read from several others saying he would net us closer to $4.5 or $4.8m in savings, though I do not know how that was broken down. I do recall our giving him a two tiered bonus, and though the initial bonus for him too was in the form of a roster bonus, which may by why some feel his cap savings would be higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfoligno Posted January 21, 2009 Report Share Posted January 21, 2009 What I do not understand is, why is everyone only considering Brown as a FS. I agree he no longer has the ability to play FS. Where as he once was able to use his smarts to make up for a lack of speed, I think his speed has deteriorated to the point that smarts can not make up for the difference. But my thing is, he is our best SS option. IMHO, he showed significant improvement once he moved to SS, or began playing in the box more, which is essentially the role of SS. IMHO, our best plan would be to sign/draft a FS, while re-signing Brown to play SS. I would take Brown over Payne, Steltz or McGowan any day, and twice on Sunday. Why are we only considering Brown as a FS? Play him at SS where he has looked best, and his lack of speed doesn't hurt him nearly as much. Ohhhh.....and you guys trust that Daniel Manning will make the right calls.......I get it. Look, Mike Brown is not the guy he used to be and he's surely not perfect. But for some reason, nobody has been able to identify a better alternative for us at safety. BTW, check the record, what happened in Atlanta wasn't Mike Brown's fault. He came to try to make up for that kid from Tampa's bad decision to jump the short route instead of covering the deeper receiver. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Hochuli 3:16 Posted January 21, 2009 Report Share Posted January 21, 2009 I simply see now way he gets $10/year, and frankly, doubt he gets $8m/year. As Ashkum pointed out, OTs have been signing deals closer to the $6m/yr range. And I have to disagree on talent being scarce at the position this year. While I won't say it is loaded, I would say there is more talent at the OT position than in most others I have looked at, and Carey is not at the top. That could change if players above him start getting tagged or re-signed prior to FA, but even then, I think $10m/yr is a pipe dream. You're referring to OT's, though. This guy is a RT, and like it said, at that position it's hard to find tons of talent. Carey is easily one of the top 5 RT's in football. If Gross wasn't a RT and/or wasn't a FA this offseason, Carey would definitley get the money Gross will get. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connorbear Posted January 21, 2009 Report Share Posted January 21, 2009 What I do not understand is, why is everyone only considering Brown as a FS. I agree he no longer has the ability to play FS. Where as he once was able to use his smarts to make up for a lack of speed, I think his speed has deteriorated to the point that smarts can not make up for the difference. But my thing is, he is our best SS option. IMHO, he showed significant improvement once he moved to SS, or began playing in the box more, which is essentially the role of SS. IMHO, our best plan would be to sign/draft a FS, while re-signing Brown to play SS. I would take Brown over Payne, Steltz or McGowan any day, and twice on Sunday. Why are we only considering Brown as a FS? Play him at SS where he has looked best, and his lack of speed doesn't hurt him nearly as much. I have no issues with this if he can stay healthy. He cannot. I love Mike Brown but it is time to move on. Peace Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfoligno Posted January 21, 2009 Report Share Posted January 21, 2009 Sorry, but I very much disagree. One, Gross is not a RT. He is the starting LT for Carolina. Even if a team wants to consider him at RT, they will be paying LT money, which is greater than RT money. Two, Sorry, but even if Gross were a RT and then taken off the market (lets say he gets tagged), that does not mean Carey gets the same money Gross would have. Just because you are the best available does not mean you will get a contract equal to the league's elite. You will likely get a deal greater than what you should, but not among the elite. Three, I do not agree you can simply sep the list by RT and LT. While it would be true that most RT can not play LT, I would argue many of the LTs on the list can play RT, and in fact, have. So whether he is the #1 rated RT (which I am not sure I agree w/) or not, if he is the 5th or 6th ranked OT overall, you are simply not going to see him getting the massive payday you are talking about. Four, Carey may not even be the top rated RT. Starks, Colon and Runyon are all right there w/ him. No question Runyon is old, but is probably still better than Carey. And I am not sure I would say Carey is better than Starks. Colon I would argue is better, but is restricted. While I would take Carey over Foster and Stincombe, I am not sure he is "that" much better. Maybe I will be proven totally wrong, which should shock no one, but I simply do not see Carey getting an $8m/yr deal, much less a $10m/yr deal. Looking at the OT signings from last year Ashkum found, I think he will get a deal that averages around $6m/yr, including a SB in the $12m range. If the price for him jumps much higher than that, I would move on and look at some of the other RTs. While I like Carey, I do not see him as a great player, and feel there are enough OTs on the market this year to not have to pay a good player great player prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfoligno Posted January 21, 2009 Report Share Posted January 21, 2009 I totally understand your thoughts here, and his injury history is what makes me go back and forth, but here is how I look at it. If we do not sign Brown, I would say we are most likely to enter next year w/ Payne, Steltz or McGowan as our starting SS. This is not good, but if I read into Angelo's comments, we would pair that SS w/ DM at FS. To me, this would be awful. Okay, lets say we sign Brown to play SS, and he does go down w/ injury. My response is, so what. We are then in the same position we would be if we didn't sign him, as Payne or whoever would fill in. At least w/ Brown, we have the chance of strong play at SS. If he goes down w/ injury, we can then turn to the others, who IMHO, should be looked at as plan B, not plan A. Now, if there is high interst in Brown, and it looks like he will get a nice sized deal, then all bets are off, but I doubt he gets big offers, and feel his next contract will be big on incentives, which I would be fine giving him. I have no issues with this if he can stay healthy. He cannot. I love Mike Brown but it is time to move on. Peace Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connorbear Posted January 21, 2009 Report Share Posted January 21, 2009 I totally understand your thoughts here, and his injury history is what makes me go back and forth, but here is how I look at it. If we do not sign Brown, I would say we are most likely to enter next year w/ Payne, Steltz or McGowan as our starting SS. This is not good, but if I read into Angelo's comments, we would pair that SS w/ DM at FS. To me, this would be awful. Okay, lets say we sign Brown to play SS, and he does go down w/ injury. My response is, so what. We are then in the same position we would be if we didn't sign him, as Payne or whoever would fill in. At least w/ Brown, we have the chance of strong play at SS. If he goes down w/ injury, we can then turn to the others, who IMHO, should be looked at as plan B, not plan A. Now, if there is high interst in Brown, and it looks like he will get a nice sized deal, then all bets are off, but I doubt he gets big offers, and feel his next contract will be big on incentives, which I would be fine giving him. No way McGowan is back. 3 injuries in 4 yrs - not going to happen IMHO. Payne looked good at SS before the switched him with Brown. Payne is not a FS. He should be our starter at SS going forward. I am hoping they do not move Manning to FS but instead bring in someone else. Peace Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfoligno Posted January 21, 2009 Report Share Posted January 21, 2009 No real argument on McGowan. I am not sure how good Payne looked at SS. He is simply not a good tackler, IMHO. He does a horrible job wrapping up, and thinks he can spear everyone to the ground, but too often his spears are just off the mark, and the ball carrier slips past him. IMHO, Brown in the box did a MUCH better job than Payne. I agree we should not move SM to FS, and should bring someone in, but if we believe anything Angelo said, it sure sounds like we are looking at DM moving back to FS. No way McGowan is back. 3 injuries in 4 yrs - not going to happen IMHO. Payne looked good at SS before the switched him with Brown. Payne is not a FS. He should be our starter at SS going forward. I am hoping they do not move Manning to FS but instead bring in someone else. Peace Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Hochuli 3:16 Posted January 21, 2009 Report Share Posted January 21, 2009 Sorry, but I very much disagree. One, Gross is not a RT. He is the starting LT for Carolina. Even if a team wants to consider him at RT, they will be paying LT money, which is greater than RT money. He was a very good RT until they brought in Otah. He was then moved back to LT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfoligno Posted January 22, 2009 Report Share Posted January 22, 2009 He was a very good RT until they brought in Otah. He was then moved back to LT. Doesn't matter. He was a very good LT, and many consider him in the elite category, or close to it. Regardless how well he can play RT, if he is viewed as a good/great LT, he will get LT money. Simple reality is, LTs get more than RTs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearSox Posted January 22, 2009 Report Share Posted January 22, 2009 Oh yeah, Gross will get LT money, but depending on what type of scheme, he's a better RT. If it's a zone blocking, run first team like the Panthers, he will have success at LT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASHKUM BEAR Posted January 22, 2009 Report Share Posted January 22, 2009 Doesn't matter. He was a very good LT, and many consider him in the elite category, or close to it. Regardless how well he can play RT, if he is viewed as a good/great LT, he will get LT money. Simple reality is, LTs get more than RTs. Gross was the RT before they drafted Otah. Wharton was the LT. Wharton moved into LG which helped solidfy Gross's play. Gross has showed he can handle both sides, Whether or not Carolina can afford him is a different story. If tagged, Gross will get rewarded with a top 5 average OT salary 8,597,893 (which Gross is #5 right now). My feeling is that they drafted Otah so they can afford to lose Gross. Releasing Gross, may help Carolina become creative in resigning Peppers, Delhomme, and Ken Lucas (maybe Gamble too). But like nfoligno states, if Carey were the only OT available, he still wouldn't get an average contract at 10/yr. He would be more in line like Stewart RT Tenn who is a top RT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASHKUM BEAR Posted January 22, 2009 Report Share Posted January 22, 2009 Regarding Tait, I could be wrong, but I could swear a chunk of his bonus was in the form of a roster bonus. As I recall, he was slapped w/ the transition tag, and we offered him a bit of a poison pill deal, with the deal heavily front loaded. KC didn't have much cap space that year, and was not able to match the deal because it was front loaded. Not arguing the numbers, but simply pointing out that I believe a chunk of his bonus was roster, which would not still be applied today. As for Wale, I have read from several others saying he would net us closer to $4.5 or $4.8m in savings, though I do not know how that was broken down. I do recall our giving him a two tiered bonus, and though the initial bonus for him too was in the form of a roster bonus, which may by why some feel his cap savings would be higher. Looking over this contract breakdown, I think it'll be closer to 3.3, but I'm not a good cap guy. usatoday.com : forgot about there contract breakdowns Player...........................Base Salary......Sign Bonus.....Other Bonus...Total Salary..Cap Value...Position 04 Ogunleye, Adewale..$ 455,000........$ 10,000,000..$ 0..............$ 10,455,000..$ 2,113,855 DE 05 Ogunleye, Adewale..$ 1,014,305.....$ 0................$ 5,003,850..$ 6,018,155...$ 7,677,010 DE 06 Ogunleye, Adewale..$ 4,000,000.....$ 0................$ 3,850........$ 4,003,850...$ 5,662,705 DE 07 Ogunleye, Adewale..$ 3,900,000.....$ 10,000,000.$ 4,200.........$ 3,904,200...$ 5,563,055 DE 08 Ogunleye, Adewale..$ 4,700,000.....$ 10,000,000..$ 4,080........$ 4,704,080...$ 6,362,935 DE 09 Ogunleye, Adewale..$ 4,800,000.....(1.5/yr?)..............?...........$ 4,800,000...$ 6,300,000 DE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akshaz Posted January 22, 2009 Report Share Posted January 22, 2009 Now, if there is high interst in Brown, and it looks like he will get a nice sized deal, then all bets are off, but I doubt he gets big offers, and feel his next contract will be big on incentives, which I would be fine giving him. Again, this is the kind of stuff that infuriates me. Mike Brown is about to go on the free agent market and get a good deal. Other teams are just as aware of his injury history and any loss of speed he may have experienced. But, they don't care. They still need a good safety and Mike Brown surely fits that mold. We need a safety as well. But, we're still getting rid of him, irrespective of the fact that we really don't have anyone better to replace him with. Do we think that JA will go try to make a splash by trading/drafting/FA signing a big-time safety? Not a chance. We all know that we'll go with who we already have on the roster. How does letting him go make us any better? It doesn't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfoligno Posted January 22, 2009 Report Share Posted January 22, 2009 Agreed they drafted Otah w/ Gross' contract ending. They may yet hope to keep him, but it will not be easy. I am not sure how much letting him go helps them w/ the rest. As I undertand it, Carolina is around $10m under the cap, which compared to other teams, is not very much. I think Carolina is in some trouble this year. They would have to find an additional $7m in cap space just to tag Peppers, much less do anything else. Freeing up $7m is easier said than done. They may find a way to do just that, but in the end, I think it will be Peppers who leaves for another team, while Gross ends up sticking w/ Carolina. Gross will not be cheap, but will not cost anything like Peppers. W/ the offense they have, maintaining the OL is key, and Gross goes a long way toward that end. Gross was the RT before they drafted Otah. Wharton was the LT. Wharton moved into LG which helped solidfy Gross's play. Gross has showed he can handle both sides, Whether or not Carolina can afford him is a different story. If tagged, Gross will get rewarded with a top 5 average OT salary 8,597,893 (which Gross is #5 right now). My feeling is that they drafted Otah so they can afford to lose Gross. Releasing Gross, may help Carolina become creative in resigning Peppers, Delhomme, and Ken Lucas (maybe Gamble too). But like nfoligno states, if Carey were the only OT available, he still wouldn't get an average contract at 10/yr. He would be more in line like Stewart RT Tenn who is a top RT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfoligno Posted January 22, 2009 Report Share Posted January 22, 2009 Found on the Chicago Bears forum and thread for cap, where someone broke down our cap for 2009. It may not be 100% accurate, but I will say this. When looking at Wale, the base seems to matchup, and the bonus cap charge compares w/ the numbers Lt2 used in last years analysis, so I think it could be fairly accurate. It shows Wale having a base of $4.8m (as you also state) but a bonus allocation of $2.5m, for a total cap charge of $7.3m. Per Lt2, last year Wale had a $2.5m bonus allocation, so if that was accurate, it should likely be the same this year. That means, if we cut him, we eat the $2.5m, but save the base, and thus we would save $4.8m. FYI, Tait is nearly identical, and would also save about $4.8m. While I have no expectation it will happen, cutting both players would allow us quite a bit of money to upgrade at those two positions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfoligno Posted January 22, 2009 Report Share Posted January 22, 2009 While I agree w/ your sentiments, I would point out: (a) While you say other teams don't care about his injuries, we need to wait and see on that. We have no idea what other teams interest will be in Brown. For all we know, he may not get much interest in FA, and could end up back w/ the team. ( It is possible we do add a FA safety, and if we do, I would say our need to re-sign Brown is less. Ideally, I would like to add both Brown and the FS out of StL, but if we do add that FS, I would better understand our letting Brown walk. We could also add a FA SS who is simply better than Brown. Either way, if we do add a S in FA, the argument for re-signing Brown is lessened. What would make me sick though is if we (a) assume DM will start at FS, ( ignore S in FA and © don't look at S until day two of the draft. If we do that, and pass on Brown, I will be sick. But that is a long way off to know for sure. Angelo may today be talking about not resigning Brown, but he may also believe Brown is going to get solid interst in FA and warrant a nice sized contract. If interest in Brown is not great, Angelo may well look to re-sign him for a smaller contract. Again, this is the kind of stuff that infuriates me. Mike Brown is about to go on the free agent market and get a good deal. Other teams are just as aware of his injury history and any loss of speed he may have experienced. But, they don't care. They still need a good safety and Mike Brown surely fits that mold. We need a safety as well. But, we're still getting rid of him, irrespective of the fact that we really don't have anyone better to replace him with. Do we think that JA will go try to make a splash by trading/drafting/FA signing a big-time safety? Not a chance. We all know that we'll go with who we already have on the roster. How does letting him go make us any better? It doesn't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madlithuanian Posted January 22, 2009 Report Share Posted January 22, 2009 Mike Brown will be SB and Pro Bowl bound in NE if we don't resign him! While I agree w/ your sentiments, I would point out: (a) While you say other teams don't care about his injuries, we need to wait and see on that. We have no idea what other teams interest will be in Brown. For all we know, he may not get much interest in FA, and could end up back w/ the team. ( It is possible we do add a FA safety, and if we do, I would say our need to re-sign Brown is less. Ideally, I would like to add both Brown and the FS out of StL, but if we do add that FS, I would better understand our letting Brown walk. We could also add a FA SS who is simply better than Brown. Either way, if we do add a S in FA, the argument for re-signing Brown is lessened. What would make me sick though is if we (a) assume DM will start at FS, ( ignore S in FA and © don't look at S until day two of the draft. If we do that, and pass on Brown, I will be sick. But that is a long way off to know for sure. Angelo may today be talking about not resigning Brown, but he may also believe Brown is going to get solid interst in FA and warrant a nice sized contract. If interest in Brown is not great, Angelo may well look to re-sign him for a smaller contract. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfoligno Posted January 22, 2009 Report Share Posted January 22, 2009 Sad to think, but I suppose it is possible. I simply wonder what sort of market Brown will see. If a team wants a Safety who carries w/ him age/injury concerns, Brown will be just one of a fair sized group that includes: Brian Dawkins, Rodney Harrison, Sharper and Lawyer Milloy. If a team is looking for younger safeties who have not hit the ceiling, then there is a group available too. I just am not sure Brown will find a great market. I think he will end up being offered short term (if not one year) deals w/ very low bonus money, but decent incentives written in. Further, even when healthy, his play at FS wasn't great, and SS' is an easier position to find. So I just do not see the market for him. I can see him going to a team like NE for a near minimum deal, though I am not sure I would predict pro bowl for him. What I do think could also be interesting is, if the market for him isn't great, and we do get into the mix for lower contracts, would he choose to re-sign w/ the Bears? If he had offers about equal between us, and say NE, would he choose to stick w/ us? Frankly, I am not so sure he would. Mike Brown will be SB and Pro Bowl bound in NE if we don't resign him! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madlithuanian Posted January 22, 2009 Report Share Posted January 22, 2009 NE seems to be the land of forgotten Bears! I know Rosie Covlin got a ring there, and I think didn't Big Ted Washington? I see Belichick being able to use Brown sparringly, and play him hard in the playoffs. he knows how to utilize players. He's kept old guys around all his career from Junior to Harrison. Borwn doesn't need to find a great market in all honesty, just a better one with a better chance of getting a ring. I don't want to see it, but I fear it will happen. I joke about Pro Bowl...but only a bit. What if he stays healthy? With a real D, DC and HC, he could thrive... I woudn't bet on it, but nor would it shock me. Who here thought he'd make it 15 games? I think the only way he stays with the Bears is if he gets some gentleman's agreement that he will be in the fold after he retires. Sad to think, but I suppose it is possible. I simply wonder what sort of market Brown will see. If a team wants a Safety who carries w/ him age/injury concerns, Brown will be just one of a fair sized group that includes: Brian Dawkins, Rodney Harrison, Sharper and Lawyer Milloy. If a team is looking for younger safeties who have not hit the ceiling, then there is a group available too. I just am not sure Brown will find a great market. I think he will end up being offered short term (if not one year) deals w/ very low bonus money, but decent incentives written in. Further, even when healthy, his play at FS wasn't great, and SS' is an easier position to find. So I just do not see the market for him. I can see him going to a team like NE for a near minimum deal, though I am not sure I would predict pro bowl for him. What I do think could also be interesting is, if the market for him isn't great, and we do get into the mix for lower contracts, would he choose to re-sign w/ the Bears? If he had offers about equal between us, and say NE, would he choose to stick w/ us? Frankly, I am not so sure he would. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucky Luciano Posted January 22, 2009 Report Share Posted January 22, 2009 Mike Brown will be SB and Pro Bowl bound in NE if we don't resign him! or maybe the colts? between him and sanders they should see a full season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madlithuanian Posted January 22, 2009 Report Share Posted January 22, 2009 Nothing would shock me! But for some reason, NE stockpiles old guys... or maybe the colts? between him and sanders they should see a full season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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