BearFan PHX

I know! That's what I'm saying! Stinger was saying we had answers to all our questions, and I was saying it's way too early to count these chickens. And of course I want those chickens to hatch well. Just too early for me to call them all successes.

absolutely, and I like that Im hearing Trapilo is getting his assignments right and looks comfortable. in fact everything we've heard sounds really good, and the roster looks really good on paper. Im just not ready to say we have a complete roster, especially regarding DE, but while i HOPE beyond hope that we have a good LT on the roster, I just want to see it comfirmed in pads. I cant go in for sunshine and rainbows after all these years! But does everything we know look good so far? Absolutely!

But even BJ says it's not anything until pads come on? We have the guys we have and the next thing is to see what they look like in pads, and then you look to make moves after that - that the rhythm of the draft / free agency cycles every year. I'm just saying, I cant do this narrative driven "everything amazing" stuff every year. I am hopeful and optimistic about the roster for sure, but i cant tell you who our starting LT is yet, so i cant judge it and say its good yet either?

Yeah I dont hold last season against Amagadje. For me, he and Trapilo are both basically rookies.

I dunno how you can say that. until they get the pads on it's way too early to evaluate the LT, and we still need a dominant pass rusher. Also, while I am optimistic about Monongai, he is a 7th round pick, and I dont know that he is about to set the league on fire either. I think you can say we have players we hope will fill in at LT and HB, but that's about it at this point. And we absolutely need a top DE, maybe next year? I do think Trapilo COULD be the answer at LT, but I need to see it in pads first.

Yeah, like we said at the time, we didnt know who Johnson would be as a leader - not that we KNEW he would be bad, but we just werent sure, whereas Vrabel was a known quantity. Well, as weve learned more, Johnson is clearly the leader type we want AND he has the offensive genius stuff going on AND he can teach Caleb

100% if Caleb has what it takes he is going to get the best chance possible to develop. Right, Im sure Nagy's Xs and Os were interesting, I know Marc Trestman's were, but like you say it's about so much more. I was originally for Vrabel, because if you remember, I was concerned that Ben Johnson might just be an Xs and Os guy but not a leader like Vrabel. Well, he sure has shown that he is a leader and has a vision, and i think it's a no-brainer knowing now what I know about Johnson, that I would vastly prefer Johnson to Vrabel now. I really hope this all works out. It sure looks right at this point.

well this is all true, buy I also think that most NFL coaches, while at a pro level, really dont see the big picture, and that is in addition to the leadership thing youre talking about, and also organizational challenges that some coaches arent great at. I mean, every OC knows that you time your routes and your drops to coincide, but I dont think they know how its supposed to look past a certain point of subtlety. I say that because I see so many teams that never seem in sync. When you watch the teams i listed earlier, Rams, Chiefs, Eagles etc you do see that everything works like a machine. Of course plays go bad, and defenders win reps and blow things up, which is why having an improviser like Caleb is such a benefit, but most teams are never in sync. I used to be of the opinion that people in the NFL were all really good at their jobs, and I used to argue with Jason about that, and I've come around over the years to see that the really good ones are just light years above the rest. I mean, look at Nagy. He was supposed to be a next level offensive mind. We know he had leadership issues, but he also just made a lot of bad strategic decisions. His plays werent deep, there was no rhythm to the playcalling. And Eberflus lost 6 games in 2 years over clock management type decisions that any of us would have done better. Guys like Ben Johnson are rare. ANd he really seems to understand the small details that make all the difference?

well the first step is to understand what it should look like, and it seems like we've had a bunch of coaches who don't. It's kind of shocking, but it feels like a lot of coaches in the NFL really dont understand the timing of an NFL offense. I dont know why that is, maybe they understand it in some way, a book way, but they clearly dont have the ability to get a team playing that way. I think Johnson has a clear picture about what he wants to to look like, and that is really half the battle. To know what you want, and then demand it of a pretty good roster. Teams like the Rams, last years' Lions, the Eagles, the Chiefs and a few others must just laugh at the rest of the league for being so awful. I need to see it on the field, but i am so hopeful now.

agree! and having Ben Johnson teach it probably gives Caleb the best chance he could ever have.

Yeah, he's not a go along with the crowd guy, he sees what he sees and calls it like it is - kind of like we do on this board. The truth is the truth! I noticed the Caleb getting his second rotation with Monangi too as soon as film came out. it sure does sound ike they like him for RB2. Who knows, maybe they want him for RB1, and Johnson for RB2. If Monangai and Trapilo are successful, and Trapilo starts, then all the LTs and HBs we missed mean nothing. That would be an amazing achievement by the scouting department.

I heard Adam Jahns on Silvy and Waddle today talking about how Ben Johnson has been vocal and exacting on the field with the team. If you didn't hear it, he recounted a story where Caleb got through 5 reads, and finally dumped it off to Roschon Johnson on a swing pass, and he got a first down, maybe closer to 15 years on the play. But Johnson wasn't happy. He watched Caleb go through the progression, and yelled "FASTER" at Caleb in the middle of the rep. He felt one of the earlier reads was open for a better outcome, and Caleb was too slow getting to him, and he ended up covered. Gentlemen, THIS is what we've been waiting for. More than anything else. A coach who demands rhythm. Caleb is good enough to get the ball to outlet receivers and make first downs on talent, but running an offense in rhythm against NFL defenses is so hard for any quarterback. Having coaches that demand that the QB does it correctly what it's ALL about. Xs and Os offensive genius? Cool. But unless it gets executed at tempo it's meaningless, and devolves into sandlot football. And it's kinda cool to have a guy in Caleb that can beat NFL defenses at sandlot football - that's gonna be good for a lot of amazing pays when things break down. But imagine something we havent seen in Chicago: an NFL offense that operates in rhythm. A play caller who calls plays in a rhythm, and gives looks to set up defenses. Are we going to have a modern football offense? With competence?!

I agree with this for sure.

even with a mediocre output from this group, records should be broken, which says two things; our roster is pretty good and Bears offensive records are pretty weak.

I think it confuses things more than it helps them, but obviously everyone talks about them, and I am certainly not here to tell anyone not to! But neither do i think a PFF ranking or stat is "evidence" in a discussion, debate or argument? I dont' even see it as a confirming piece of evidence to pile on after something more reasonable says something. That's why i say they are random and not wrong. Sometimes they are right, but not because of math, just because of luck in my opinion. I mean these are the people that told us that Charles Leno gave us performances that ranked near the top of the league!

my contention is that the next gen stats of PFF are not valid. That's because they amplify noise in the signal to the point that the output is mostly random. Even looking at a well known non PFF originated stat like QB rating. It makes assumptions about what style a good QB should be. It weights certain things against other things, but like all stats, it cant include context. If, for example, you look at Brett Favre's interceptions, they would make you think the guy wasnt careful with the ball. A lot of people fall into the trap, calling him a gunslinger. But if you look deeper, you find that a high percentage of his interceptions happened near the end of the 2nd and 4th quarters, especially when losing. You can also see how many game winners he threw. An interception in the last 2 minutes, down 10 points is really different from one up 10 points in the 3rd quarter. But the stat doesnt take that into account. Barry Sanders has the most runs for a loss in NFL history. Thats a bad stat, but in context, you want him on your team. Similarly, even if PFF has some next gen stuff that starts with real world objective data, there is nothing that says the way they relate that data provides a useful outcome. When I see some of the claims PFF makes, I find them laughable, and so i dont trust their math to provide outputs that are helpful or even describe what kind of job a player is doing. I do assume PFF wants to provide helpful data and rankings, but I think they make too much out of too few data points, and the relational algorithms that process that data are flawed and always would be. And this makes sense because if there were clear statistics that were more predictive, we'd all be talking about them, and they'd show on the field. It's seductive to use stats that seem to have such clear claims in numbers and rankings, but In the end, no stat can really capture the truth of how a player performs the way watching the tape can?

PFF is random though

It's all been said over and over. The reasons i think what i think are clear, and the stats you're using to bolster your argument are clear too. There's no need to go around in circles so i won't repeat it all again. Time will tell what happens.

Yeah Im not pointing the finger at anyone here, I dont hear anyone here saying he is a true stud, obviously weve had discussions about future trades (or not!) for him, but Im not saying anyone is overstating him. I dont know if I agree he has "good" hands or anything, BUT I was just saying that if Kmet plays well, I totally agree Johnson will know how to use them, and i was even thinking of some of what the Patriots did with Gronkowski and Hernandez when they had them both. So I agree there too. I'm not betting the farm on Kmet, but I don't think it is impossible for him to play well. I just think he would have progressed more by now, so he's kind of topping out, way short of his expectations or contract, but if he DOES mature this offseason, having 2 TEs that can really play will be a fun toy for Johnson for sure. I just think he's gonna have to show quick, this train is leaving the station, and they aren't gonna wait around for the light to come on for Kmet. I always though he had potential, but i think we all agree that so far, he hasn't really lived up to his draft status. I really hope he does! That would be an extra weapon Im not counting on right now, and Johnson would be even scarier with yet another dimension.

OMG YES thank you for saying that. I've been hating that for a while about Caleb, and I also just noticed him NOT doing it in camp clips. Theyre fixing his footwork, eliminating the pat, and working on pouty body language. Only time will tell, but right now i am really glad we got Johnson and not Mike Vrabel. I wanted Vrabel early because I know this team needs discipline, but i gotta say, so far it sure looks like Ben Johnson has brought some. And it's not from rah rah speeches at the press conferences either. No HITS acronyms. or all male disco parties after wins. It's just on the field, in the play to play mechanics, where it's real.

PFF is random. People love it because they do a lot of clear rankings and ratings, and they use numbers, so they are fun and easy to understand an compare. But PFF is nonsense. Now, despite my feelings about what I think Cole Kmet really is, *IF* he was to break out and be a great player, then we might be looking at film of the Patriots when they had Gronkowski and Hernandez for ideas. I'm sure there are a lot of ways to use two great TEs, especially with Moore and Odunze on the outside. So I understand the excitement from those that think Kmet has that kind of skill set. Of course, neither one is Gronkowski, especially Loveland being more of a tall and nifty slot receiver, so the same concepts wouldn't map over 1 to 1, but the matchup problems are obvious, and a true dual TE threat is a real problem for defenses. If Loveland could be a Tony Gonzalez type for us, that alone is gonna be great for Caleb and our offense.

well Bagent was always bad with the long ball, and im not shocked that Keenum is putting touch and leading swing routes like a vet while Caleb is still learning the finer points of touch. That doesnt really concern me too much at this point. I am eager to see this on the field and then start picking it apart, or praising it, or both.

Yeah and I didn't dig - I mean if I'd have even read the amount ($37.5M!) I'd have choked right there and known something was wrong.

You know what Stinger? I think you're right. I saw the story a few weeks ago, from several sources, but not any sources i really knew. And today i just googled it and pasted it without really reading it. I re-reading, there is NO WAY we signed Bagent for $18M a year for 2 years! And as I looked futher, no reputable sources had it. So I guess it's internet bullshit, and I have no problem saying you were right and I was wrong about this. I had seen some opinion pieces in reputable places that said he would be in line for an extension, so when I saw the fake story, I just thought it was true - it wasnt particularly interesting, so i didnt dig into to it - but I should have. But 2 years $37.5M?? LOL no way. So, I full admit you were right and I was wrong about this one.

https://sportfigur.com/2025/05/09/tyson-bagent-signs-two-year-37-5-million-contract-extension-with-chicago-bears/