BearFan PHX

Dude, I hope you're ok! And that its a LONG time before anyone would consider an autopsy!

hmmmm. I was just speaking anecdotally. these results are not in line with what I thought. as always, thanks for the stats, adam!

Since we dont have anything else to talk about, i thought it might be a good time to say that the "new" kickoff rule looked pretty good this past year. I was initially unsure. You guys may remember that I worried that there might be some new unintended wrinkles that would allow cheap or lucky free touchdowns. But in truth, having seen it tested across a season, it seems even more solid than the previous rule when it comes to dumb little mistakes causing cheap touchdowns. Im not talking about earned touchdowns, where a Devin Hester type scores because of his skill or dominance - those are always good. But of those that were not earned, i think the new rule provided fewer examples. And even though its a little weird to have a play where the kicker can run, but everyone stays frozen while the ball is actually in play, until it's touched or hits the ground, I gotta say i am a fan of the way it keeps outcomes predictable and solid, and apparently is better for players health. Cool. The game is still won (and lost) with plays on offense and defense, and not cheap touchdowns. It also limits the effect of surprise onside kicks that also have been responsible for cheap touchdowns in the past. Last minute onside kicks still exist, and the receiving team always anticipated those anyway, but the surprise ones have been eliminated. And I think that's good too. I will always be wary of any rule changes, but this one seems to have turned out well, and I am pleased with it now.

It's time for the packs winning streak to come to an end. They dont have Favre or Rodgers. Theyre just another team now. we are 12 games under .500 with the Pack all time. Let's start getting that back to even at least.

I'm just trying to look at what we've got in a realistic light. To me that's more exciting, because then when you get positive results, it means we might actually win some games. I think our OL is going to be night and day better, and hopefully the LT too, and I think BJ will know how to call the running game with them, so I do expect our HBs to do well, and as a result, our play action passing game too. And all of that takes away opportunities for the defense to sack Williams. I think BJ gets this as well as anyone in the league. I do think without a consistent pass rush we can only go so far. A playoff appearance? Maybe even a playoff win? Those are possibilities, but when we meet the really good teams, we're going to wish we had a top 10 pass rushing DE, and a bell cow HB who can really strike fear into the defense and close out games with tough first downs. I think our team develop this year, hopefully learn how to reliably beat the bottom 2/3 of the league, and then we will come up against the good teams, and learn that it takes even more to get to the superbowl. And that's a great place to be for this year. Next year, having been good but gotten our asses kicked by a top team, we will add at DE and HB, and then we will be a real contender. This is all on schedule. But we are not quite there yet. Now luck, and growth of the team will play an important part. There is no real ceiling on most of what this team can do in December if they really gel. But without a feared pass rush, you can only hope to win shootouts or lucky situations when you come to teams like the Eagles etc who stand between us and championships. This will be a great growing year for Caleb. I think 10-7 or 11-6 are possible. Maybe even 12-5 if everything goes right, and we have a shot at winning the division too. But we are not there yet, even on paper, to be a dominant threat to win multiple Superbowls, and of course this is if everything goes best case scenario, which it seldom does. It's gonna be great to see them ascend to that next level, and then they will discover what it really takes to dominate, after losing a heartbreaker in the playoffs to a truly good team. And honestly, I think that's right on schedule.

Yeah, I agree things went very differently than I expected them to, but the quality of the scouting department is really shining through - identifying players who were not in the top 5 of their position groups who could still be starters. That allowed Poles to stay true to his philosophy, and even get played a few times for HBs, and still come away with prospects who can push to start in Trapilo, Monongai, Burden and Turner while still making a splash with a first round pick in Loveland, I still think the Bears are going to lean heavily on the running game, and that we will wish we had a better HB1, no matter who eventually wins the job. I thinbk with the league having moved toward more 2 safety looks to counter the modern passing schemes over the last few years, that there is a chance for dominant HBs to affect the game more than they did 5 years ago lets say. I think we might wish we had Cam Skatebo on the roster this year. I know we are gonna need another DE too. This is our biggest weakness right now, with HB as #2. But as you have said, no roster is ever complete, so for almost every team across NFL history, there are strengths and there are "holes" - in the quest to keep updating the roster there is never a time where you dont have a concern about some player or position group. I am hopeful about a lot of these players, but we all agree, we've been let down so many times before, let's at least see it in pads at camp before any asses are crowned LOL

I don't believe that 50% of top ten OL picks fail. I dont think Sweat and Dayo are enough at DE to challenge for a superbowl. It takes years to build a roster, and I assume DE will be a high priority next year unless we do something sooner. I do think we have some horses at DT now. I dont believe in Swift as a HB to take us where we want to go. Hes OK, but not a difference maker. Of course ALL rookies need to prove it on the field. Before the draft i hadnt heard of Trapilo or seen any tape. If I had, hed have been on my list of guys I wanted too. I am optimistic about him, but I need to see him and Amagadje in pads. Im not saying the roster is bad, Im saying its too early to be crowing about how all the pieces are in place. That's homer stuff.

As Luther Burden said on his twitter when he heard this... "Uh Oh"

I know! That's what I'm saying! Stinger was saying we had answers to all our questions, and I was saying it's way too early to count these chickens. And of course I want those chickens to hatch well. Just too early for me to call them all successes.

absolutely, and I like that Im hearing Trapilo is getting his assignments right and looks comfortable. in fact everything we've heard sounds really good, and the roster looks really good on paper. Im just not ready to say we have a complete roster, especially regarding DE, but while i HOPE beyond hope that we have a good LT on the roster, I just want to see it comfirmed in pads. I cant go in for sunshine and rainbows after all these years! But does everything we know look good so far? Absolutely!

But even BJ says it's not anything until pads come on? We have the guys we have and the next thing is to see what they look like in pads, and then you look to make moves after that - that the rhythm of the draft / free agency cycles every year. I'm just saying, I cant do this narrative driven "everything amazing" stuff every year. I am hopeful and optimistic about the roster for sure, but i cant tell you who our starting LT is yet, so i cant judge it and say its good yet either?

Yeah I dont hold last season against Amagadje. For me, he and Trapilo are both basically rookies.

I dunno how you can say that. until they get the pads on it's way too early to evaluate the LT, and we still need a dominant pass rusher. Also, while I am optimistic about Monongai, he is a 7th round pick, and I dont know that he is about to set the league on fire either. I think you can say we have players we hope will fill in at LT and HB, but that's about it at this point. And we absolutely need a top DE, maybe next year? I do think Trapilo COULD be the answer at LT, but I need to see it in pads first.

Yeah, like we said at the time, we didnt know who Johnson would be as a leader - not that we KNEW he would be bad, but we just werent sure, whereas Vrabel was a known quantity. Well, as weve learned more, Johnson is clearly the leader type we want AND he has the offensive genius stuff going on AND he can teach Caleb

100% if Caleb has what it takes he is going to get the best chance possible to develop. Right, Im sure Nagy's Xs and Os were interesting, I know Marc Trestman's were, but like you say it's about so much more. I was originally for Vrabel, because if you remember, I was concerned that Ben Johnson might just be an Xs and Os guy but not a leader like Vrabel. Well, he sure has shown that he is a leader and has a vision, and i think it's a no-brainer knowing now what I know about Johnson, that I would vastly prefer Johnson to Vrabel now. I really hope this all works out. It sure looks right at this point.

well this is all true, buy I also think that most NFL coaches, while at a pro level, really dont see the big picture, and that is in addition to the leadership thing youre talking about, and also organizational challenges that some coaches arent great at. I mean, every OC knows that you time your routes and your drops to coincide, but I dont think they know how its supposed to look past a certain point of subtlety. I say that because I see so many teams that never seem in sync. When you watch the teams i listed earlier, Rams, Chiefs, Eagles etc you do see that everything works like a machine. Of course plays go bad, and defenders win reps and blow things up, which is why having an improviser like Caleb is such a benefit, but most teams are never in sync. I used to be of the opinion that people in the NFL were all really good at their jobs, and I used to argue with Jason about that, and I've come around over the years to see that the really good ones are just light years above the rest. I mean, look at Nagy. He was supposed to be a next level offensive mind. We know he had leadership issues, but he also just made a lot of bad strategic decisions. His plays werent deep, there was no rhythm to the playcalling. And Eberflus lost 6 games in 2 years over clock management type decisions that any of us would have done better. Guys like Ben Johnson are rare. ANd he really seems to understand the small details that make all the difference?

well the first step is to understand what it should look like, and it seems like we've had a bunch of coaches who don't. It's kind of shocking, but it feels like a lot of coaches in the NFL really dont understand the timing of an NFL offense. I dont know why that is, maybe they understand it in some way, a book way, but they clearly dont have the ability to get a team playing that way. I think Johnson has a clear picture about what he wants to to look like, and that is really half the battle. To know what you want, and then demand it of a pretty good roster. Teams like the Rams, last years' Lions, the Eagles, the Chiefs and a few others must just laugh at the rest of the league for being so awful. I need to see it on the field, but i am so hopeful now.

agree! and having Ben Johnson teach it probably gives Caleb the best chance he could ever have.

Yeah, he's not a go along with the crowd guy, he sees what he sees and calls it like it is - kind of like we do on this board. The truth is the truth! I noticed the Caleb getting his second rotation with Monangi too as soon as film came out. it sure does sound ike they like him for RB2. Who knows, maybe they want him for RB1, and Johnson for RB2. If Monangai and Trapilo are successful, and Trapilo starts, then all the LTs and HBs we missed mean nothing. That would be an amazing achievement by the scouting department.

I heard Adam Jahns on Silvy and Waddle today talking about how Ben Johnson has been vocal and exacting on the field with the team. If you didn't hear it, he recounted a story where Caleb got through 5 reads, and finally dumped it off to Roschon Johnson on a swing pass, and he got a first down, maybe closer to 15 years on the play. But Johnson wasn't happy. He watched Caleb go through the progression, and yelled "FASTER" at Caleb in the middle of the rep. He felt one of the earlier reads was open for a better outcome, and Caleb was too slow getting to him, and he ended up covered. Gentlemen, THIS is what we've been waiting for. More than anything else. A coach who demands rhythm. Caleb is good enough to get the ball to outlet receivers and make first downs on talent, but running an offense in rhythm against NFL defenses is so hard for any quarterback. Having coaches that demand that the QB does it correctly what it's ALL about. Xs and Os offensive genius? Cool. But unless it gets executed at tempo it's meaningless, and devolves into sandlot football. And it's kinda cool to have a guy in Caleb that can beat NFL defenses at sandlot football - that's gonna be good for a lot of amazing pays when things break down. But imagine something we havent seen in Chicago: an NFL offense that operates in rhythm. A play caller who calls plays in a rhythm, and gives looks to set up defenses. Are we going to have a modern football offense? With competence?!

I agree with this for sure.

even with a mediocre output from this group, records should be broken, which says two things; our roster is pretty good and Bears offensive records are pretty weak.

I think it confuses things more than it helps them, but obviously everyone talks about them, and I am certainly not here to tell anyone not to! But neither do i think a PFF ranking or stat is "evidence" in a discussion, debate or argument? I dont' even see it as a confirming piece of evidence to pile on after something more reasonable says something. That's why i say they are random and not wrong. Sometimes they are right, but not because of math, just because of luck in my opinion. I mean these are the people that told us that Charles Leno gave us performances that ranked near the top of the league!

my contention is that the next gen stats of PFF are not valid. That's because they amplify noise in the signal to the point that the output is mostly random. Even looking at a well known non PFF originated stat like QB rating. It makes assumptions about what style a good QB should be. It weights certain things against other things, but like all stats, it cant include context. If, for example, you look at Brett Favre's interceptions, they would make you think the guy wasnt careful with the ball. A lot of people fall into the trap, calling him a gunslinger. But if you look deeper, you find that a high percentage of his interceptions happened near the end of the 2nd and 4th quarters, especially when losing. You can also see how many game winners he threw. An interception in the last 2 minutes, down 10 points is really different from one up 10 points in the 3rd quarter. But the stat doesnt take that into account. Barry Sanders has the most runs for a loss in NFL history. Thats a bad stat, but in context, you want him on your team. Similarly, even if PFF has some next gen stuff that starts with real world objective data, there is nothing that says the way they relate that data provides a useful outcome. When I see some of the claims PFF makes, I find them laughable, and so i dont trust their math to provide outputs that are helpful or even describe what kind of job a player is doing. I do assume PFF wants to provide helpful data and rankings, but I think they make too much out of too few data points, and the relational algorithms that process that data are flawed and always would be. And this makes sense because if there were clear statistics that were more predictive, we'd all be talking about them, and they'd show on the field. It's seductive to use stats that seem to have such clear claims in numbers and rankings, but In the end, no stat can really capture the truth of how a player performs the way watching the tape can?

PFF is random though