BearFan PHX

I just think it's hilarious to imagine a team trading a rookie they just drafted in the first round a month ago LOL It's such homer thinking, I got a real laugh out of it.

Saw this on twitter: Trade Bagent and Braxton to the Saints for Banks Jr LOL and while we are at it - we should trade DJ for Fields to fill the hole at QB2. LOL

Well Im no fan of either of them. I think Gabriel is terrible and almost always wrong, but we agree on Lambert. He is a click farming whore LOL He posts EVERYTHING even when it is contradictory to the last thing he posted. I dont even think you can say Lambert has any beliefs or a point of view. In the last two weeks before the draft he had articles saying we were definitely taking 15 different players LOL

I just want to make clear that I am in no way associated with people talking about trading Moore! That guy is a player! I also think we all agree that Kmet will not be traded right away, so he will get a chance to show who he can be on the field, and also how Johnson wants to use him. In Detroit, only one TE really got targets, the other was an inline blocking TE. I know that Johnson has said he wont run the exact same offense here, and I took that to mean (before the draft!) that he could get the LaPorta routes from a slot WR. i thought maybe a guy like McMillan. Now that we have Loveland (AND Burden too!) we have ways to work the middle of the field, and so I see the role of TE2 in our offense as being an inline blocker. And so that brings me to think Kmet wont stick around too long. Not because he isnt good, but because Loveland is better as a receiving TE, and Kmet isnt really THAT good of a blocker. Its not hate for Kmet, I think hes a decent TE, but I think Loveland is just a lot better and will be a star in this league. I also think that we arent used to trading players who are good. Our roster has been so poor for so long that we dont have experience with roster turnover of good players the way they did it in New England for example back in the day. So for these reasons, i think Kmet will get traded before opening day next year. But i fully agree that Kmet will get a chance to show Johnson what he can do, and if he balls out, then my calculation will change. And with so many mouths to feed already in Moore, Odunze, Loveland and Burden, and what ive seen on film of Kmet so far, I wouldnt bet on Kmet sticking around? Also I expect a BIG year from Odunze. But this is VERY different from how I felt about Leno, Fields, Waldron and Flus. Those guys SUCK. Kmet does not suck. He's a decent middle of the pack NFL TE. I just dont think hes special, and we are getting to the point on this roster where decent isnt good enough. Someone else will be very happy to have Kmet, but no kids are going to buy his jersey. And again, all that is contingent on the status quo. If this lights a fire under Kmets butt and he shows us stuff I havent seen from him before, then of course all bets are off.

its a good argument, and it hinges on how good Kmet will be. I think we all agree he will get a chance to show what he can do, so if he is really a problem for defenses, and a multiplier he will get his chance to show it. But in no way am I on board with trading DJ Moore. THAT guy is a player. He wasnt so well behaved last year, but i think he hates losing. I'm OK with that. Just like Stevenson, they get a blank slate this year. Eberflus deserves the blame for their sins, these players get a new start. But i still think, based on my belief of what level Kmet really is, that he wont be around next year, or maybe at the trade deadline. But if he plays differently, or johnson puts him situations to succeed and he proves himself, then you are right we will probably keep him.

yes, youre right. however, Kmet will never be able to do what Loveland does, so if Loveland gets hurt, Kmet cant really fill his role anyway? The best argument for Kmets role on this team, in my opinion, is the 2 TE sets.

FWIW, i dont think the Bears are shopping Kmet. My prediction was next year, or at the trade deadline this year.

I guess youre right. I thought 4k+ was optimistic, but Im only predicting 238 a game. I'll stay with my prediction, but youre right, if things click, it could be more.

hahahaha thats hilarious

good point. i guess I will say that other WRs will take yards from the ones I've already allotted? I wouldnt want to predict who they come from though! For me it starts with predicting Caleb goes just slightly over 4k. ANd odunze just slightly over 1,000 while DJ doesnt quite make 1,000 and burden takes a bunch of his catches. And then a guess at Loveland, and then the rest of the number kind of fall into place from there, so other WRs would have to take from Burden and DJ in my prediction I guess?

I made this (optimistic!) prediction a week or two ago, and Im gonna stick with it this year - well see how right or wrong I got it. My total guess, assuming LT isnt a total disaster, and Caleb isnt running for his life: Caleb Williams 4,050 yards passing DJ Moore 800 yds receiving Rome Odunze 1,050 yds receiving Luther Burden 600 yds receiving Colston Loveland 750 yds receiving Cole Kmet 350 yds receiving HBs 500 yds receiving

I assume you were asking my opinion on the 2022 draft as part of an argument to prove that Poles is good. So i answered the main point.

See this is the problem. All I care about is the Bears. You seem to care about winning points with me. We will see how this all works out in time.

The stats are painting the wrong picture. You say he is wide open on 80% of his catches. You also say he has low targets. This means he doesnt get open often. It means when a defense fails, he is WIDE open and can catch. ANYONE who is wide open can catch. But he doesnt get open enough. Apparently we DO have a blue chip TE now. So why pay TE2 $11.6M a year when you have so many mouths to feed on offense anyway? You can get a cheaper inline TE2 and improve the team in other ways. The only reason you want to keep him is that once someone is on the team, you ALWAYS want to keep them. To you, someone on the team is family, and someone who isnt currently on the team is not. But maybe youd love a different player we could get with that money on the defensive line? Kmet doesnt suck, but we are paying him too much, and those resources could do more good for us somewhere else. Thats why I think we will trade him next year or this year at the deadline.

Dude calm down - its like you feel anything less than an A+ is an attack on family or something. You're obsessively overly positive about every member of the team. Ive already said that Poles has done a lot of good things. Im not trying to get rid of him now. I think he has done some things well and other things less well, and also received credit for things that he really didnt do - like Carolina winning in the last second so we could have CW. It's OK to have a nuanced opinion that includes positives and negatives. Maybe your psychological idea that people are entirely negative or positive applies to you, but for most of us, there is good and bad in everything. But Poles doesnt need you to defend him from me. Here are some partial lists off the top of my head THE GOOD disciplined cap management good picks in the secondary THE BAD Eberflus Getsy Waldron Morgan Claypool Velus Jones Nate Davis THE MIDDLE Extending Kmet DJ Moore THE QUESTIONABLE the OL over his tenure the DL over his tenure THE WAYS HE GOT LUCKY Caleb Williams

agree with all of this. In not knocking what Poles DID do, just saying that he gets credit for being lucky too. If Carolina wins 2 more games, we end up with Drake Maye instead of Caleb Williams, and this all looks really different.

funny. you didnt post tape, you posted stats. Im saying YOU should look at the tape. Kmet is decent but not great. He doesnt get open vs man coverage, either by moves or west coast style body position. He is stiff, and in only open when there is a hole in the zone. Why do you think his targets are low? Because he isnt open. Yes, he can catch the ball when he is open and you throw it to him. A lot of guys can. But he isnt worth what we are paying him, especially now with Loveland on the roster. Time will tell.

no, but that is his role now. i agree hes not that good at it. But What i said was you can find an inline blocker cheaper to replace him. No matter what they said about him coming into the draft, he has gotten better at run blocking, and he has not been a gronkowski type at all. he deosnt get open against man, either with moves or body position. he isnt particularly well known for contested catches either. Hes just a big body that runs like Frankenstein, loping and stiff, and yes against zone, sometimes he is open. That is true for every TE. he doesnt even have particularly soft hands, but if hes open and you throw it to him, he can catch it. But he isnt a difference maker on 3rd down or anything like that. hes not been a QB safety blanket at all. He's just a decent average NFL TE. And you can get them cheaper or better yet, on a rookie deal. I think he is gone next year, or possibly at this years trading deadline. We will see. I DO think he has a chance to prove himself this year and change this, but i havent seen it from him on tape yet, so until he does, i think he isnt long for this team.

We'll see. Like i said, I do agree he has value. But with so many mouths to feed, I suspect he will be gone next year, or maybe even at the trade deadline this year? I have heard rumors (so who knows whether they are true or not) that the Patriots and Chargers might be interested in Kmet. But I doubt we trade him now - gotta see the rookies do it on the field first. He just doesnt have any wiggle to get open, and he isnt known for tough contested catches. He gets open in gaps in zone defenses, and catches OK, but i think there are a lot of cheaper guys that can do that and block too? Thats why im saying this. but its not like Leno or Fields. Im not saying he sucks. I just dont think there is much room for him on our team soon.

We had some pretty bad players on the IL last year, but youre right coaching will help a LOT too. fair.

I think with the new OL, if the LT position is solid, we could expect an average number of sacks this year, which would look like heaven considering where we've been! It's hard to talk about incremental change from the previous stat since most of those guys wont be on the line this year. I think it's just a new unit, and should look pretty good. Average at least!

100%, but it wasnt as if Poles made that happen. When we traded the rights to Young, we could have had CJ stroud, and there was no guarantee that Carolina would give us the #1 pick the next year. We got VERY lucky, and to get Williams out of it was a godsend. But Poles didnt know that would happen. So I dunno if we can give him all the credit for that?

totally agree

You've got to be kidding. Everything I wrote just said that Kmet's role is AS a blocker. I said he could be replaced by another inline blocker. I dont think he is the 9th best TE. I dont think he is good at getting open either. As for value, it's not just the pick. If he is as good as you say he is, he will get better than a 5th round pick. If he is only worht a 5th round pick then he isnt the 9th best TE. You gotta pick a lane. But it's also the $10M in cap space savings (and then #11.6M after that). I'm not saying he is without value. I am saying you could convert his value into another blocking TE, and have more left over to help the team in other ways. Or you could trade him for an edge or something. And use the money to extend a player, or sign another free agent. Since you are in the mode of saying people's opinions come from some psychological way of thinking - I think you are too attached to anyone that's on the roster. Good teams get rid of good players to get better. If you've ever wanted a trade down in the draft, it's the same thing as moving Kmet. You give something of value, to get back something of value. Usually more than one thing. So my message isnt that Kmet has to go. Im not saying he is terrible and should be on the street. Im saying he is GOOD, but not worth what we pay him, and Id rather have the value somewhere else. I also think the Bears will think that too. Not necessarily today, but ive been saying since january that i dont think Kmet will be on the team next year. So unless the offer is really rich, you wait until Loveland is established, and then you look for moves at the trade deadline, or during the offseason.

agree. I understand the prudence of signing them for long terms deals, but we gotta see what weve got first. Ill add in Nate Davis as another example. He looked GREAT on film, and showed up as an unmotivated turd!