BearFan PHX

LOL ooooh boy. If I missed writing "I think" once then my DEEPEST apologies. Coming from you tho, it's a joke. No matter what you say, we will see what we have when the pads come on. Looking forward to that.

the first two got fully guaranteed contracts for the first time, so #3 wants it too, and it will fall all the way down the list until someone signs without one, and no player wants to be the "ah*le" that ruined it for everyone, so everyone is stuck waiting. But yes, the arrival of training camp will loosen some.

I think all signs are pointing to Ben Johnson becoming one of the top head coaches in the league. In a sense, being head coach is "pads on" all the time, so we've already gotten a glimpse of him in action. But yeah, from everything I've seen so far, it sure looks like he is gonna be great for us.

Speaking for myself, Im not sitting ont he fence, or worried about being wrong. Im saying it is June, and this is the time of year where the draft and first wave of free agency is over. This is the time to see what you have before you do anything else - that's the rhythm of the NFL every year. The next step is to see it on grass in pads. Then after you see what you really have, you make adjustments. This isn't optimistic, pessimistic or fence sitting. It's just what June is. For example, I am very excited to see Trapilo take the LT position and dominate. That's what i hope happens. So far, everything points in the right direction. We havent heard any negative stuff about him in OTAs, he seems to be int he right positions and understanding the blocking assignments. Cool! But i cant tell you that Amagadje isnt better, or Braxton Jones for that matter. Now I know what Jones has on tape, so i think I can predict what he can give us, but who knows what Roushar might unlock? But to start saying Trapilo is the guy, or Amagadje is the guy etc is foolish until you see them in pads. That's not pessimistic. That's not fence sitting. It's just the truth. I dont understand this idea that you have to proclaim that we are great right now in order to be "joyful" or "optimistic" - thats homer fan stuff driven by Podcasts during a month when nothing is happening. It's the kind of dynamic where we build all sorts of outcomes out of a single time that Johnson corrected Caleb for being late. i mean, dont get me wrong i LOVE that, but it's just a tiny data point. So podcasters and their viewers can wrap themsevles in narratives all they like, but it's not a question of morals. It's just rah rah fan crap. I am very excited to see this team on grass in pads. I am optimistic about our near future. But I'm not counting chickens until they suit up and knock some people around. Not because I doubt them, but just because words arent actions. I dont need to declare my love for the Bears - we ALL spend hours on this site, it's obvious we all love them. But let's see what we've got before we claim any championships or even wins in June.

Oh i don't think anyone thinks this is just another Bears team. I think we ALL see the difference. The roster looks much better, and the coaching is an obvious and stark upgrade. I just think some of us are saying we are looking forward to seeing it in pads so we know if every piece is really up to par. For example, we have no idea who will play LT. There are lots of reasons to believe that between the three candidates we have, one will ascend. Cool. But I want to see it, and not just assume it? But that doesnt mean we are pessimistic and think its NOT going to happen. It just means we want to see it to know what we've really got. We arent predicting failure, but we also arent assuming this is a Superbowl team, having never played a single down yet is all. We just want to see. What if one of the OL is weaker than expected? Or what if Roschon Johnson lights it all on fire and becomes HB1? What if Burden holds out, or Kmet is suddenly amazing? This is the month of podcast hype, where people say things like "the roster is complete" and that's just silly. But none of that means that we are pessimistic or think the Bears will be terrible! We just want to see it on the field so we know what we have!

You're missing the point entirely. I am NOT saying the team will be bad! I'm saying on paper they actually look really solid, but it's all projection, and I want to see it on grass in pads. I even said maybe someone will OUT-perform our expectations and look even better than Greg Gabriel says they will LOL The comment was made in the context of making roster moves. And I think right now, except for tweaks in depth, or if a major talent becomes available at a discount price, that we will sit on the hand we have right now, and wait to see it next month in pads. THEN we will have new opinions and that would be the time to reevalute the roster if necessary. But no one is saying "yeah sure they look good on paper, but theyre going to suck in reality" I thinkt hat's what you're hearing? But no, we're just saying, "yes, looks good, let's see if it still looks the same in pads" not saying we exepct it to look bad, or good for that matter, just we will see it when it happens. It's not pessimism, it's just we've made all the theoretical moves, now let's test the theories? And you're the one saying these are known quantities? But the strawman argument youre creating of these pessimistic thoughts is not in our comments. Thats not what we are saying at all.

yeah or even who is going to play LT. There are LOTS of podcasts about it, but they haven't played a down in pads yet. Or how the DE rotation is looking. Or even who will be the main HB for this team. How Kmet will be. Whether Williams is improving. Etc Etc. I think just because we hear some guy on the internet who has a "show" say it, doesn't mean it's true. This is hype season, but the truth is coming in a month or two.

I think his point is that we cant assume pieces we think are going to be great, are actually going to be great until we see them. From our current understanding of the roster, we have holes at DE and HB. But when we see it with the pads on, some players may show us that they arent going to work out like we hoped, and some may show us that they are ready to fill the holes i just mentioned too. I think you're counting chickens before they hatch, and he's saying that we will know when we know. And I think that has to be how Poles is thinking too? or any GM? So it's not the right time to make a trade, we agree, since we don't fully even know what we have yet, for good or bad. The only exception to that is something that's a clear deal on a real stud, or minor moves monkeying with depth. So when it comes to starters, we will probably roll with what we've got and the next likely window for making changes is the cuts at end of training camp, and the one after that is the trade deadline. But that doesn't mean boxes are checked and everyone is certain that what the podcasts are saying is REAL. We need to see it in pads, under live fire, and into the season as well.

well said. unless someone comes loose from some really bad contract holdouts and we get an obvious DEAL, we probably won't be upgrading starter positions until we know what we currently have. But I wouldnt be surprised at all if we are active at the trade deadline. Any time you have a new coach, a lot of guys are possible trade bait. Some will grow into the new situation, and some will go. That's always what happens with new coaches. And as much as we have seemingly filled a LOT of holes in the past two years, that also means a lot is new, and isn't proven yet. For example, we all seem to be sure the OL is fixed, but until we see it on the field, who really knows. Players could be past their prime, lazy (see Davis), or just unable to gel. I'm not predicting that of course, but it is unknown. We will know more as each month passes. And that's very exciting. But I think what you've said here is probably how Poles is feeling too.

Burden has always been known as a head case and a me first kind of guy. Hopefully BJ can get his attention and straighten him out. FWIW, a lot of good guys taken in the second round also dont want to be the first player that accepts a non guaranteed contract and breaks the chain for every player behind them.

yeah, and Luther Burden is a likely problem for the same reason. Hope whatever it is gets done quick, and Burden is willing to be coached.

yeah, out of shape is MUC worse than a contract holdout that seems to be Cinci's fault. Im on Shemar Stewart's side in this, but Graham? That's inexcuseable. Glad we dont have to deal with that!

I dunno - Cinci is asking Stewart to accept a contract with different language than they had in their last two first rounders. I think it's possible that Cinci is the one to blame and not Stewart? It's not like he's holding out over money - those contracts are already slotted for $.

LOL ALL of us!

Dude, I hope you're ok! And that its a LONG time before anyone would consider an autopsy!

hmmmm. I was just speaking anecdotally. these results are not in line with what I thought. as always, thanks for the stats, adam!

Since we dont have anything else to talk about, i thought it might be a good time to say that the "new" kickoff rule looked pretty good this past year. I was initially unsure. You guys may remember that I worried that there might be some new unintended wrinkles that would allow cheap or lucky free touchdowns. But in truth, having seen it tested across a season, it seems even more solid than the previous rule when it comes to dumb little mistakes causing cheap touchdowns. Im not talking about earned touchdowns, where a Devin Hester type scores because of his skill or dominance - those are always good. But of those that were not earned, i think the new rule provided fewer examples. And even though its a little weird to have a play where the kicker can run, but everyone stays frozen while the ball is actually in play, until it's touched or hits the ground, I gotta say i am a fan of the way it keeps outcomes predictable and solid, and apparently is better for players health. Cool. The game is still won (and lost) with plays on offense and defense, and not cheap touchdowns. It also limits the effect of surprise onside kicks that also have been responsible for cheap touchdowns in the past. Last minute onside kicks still exist, and the receiving team always anticipated those anyway, but the surprise ones have been eliminated. And I think that's good too. I will always be wary of any rule changes, but this one seems to have turned out well, and I am pleased with it now.

It's time for the packs winning streak to come to an end. They dont have Favre or Rodgers. Theyre just another team now. we are 12 games under .500 with the Pack all time. Let's start getting that back to even at least.

I'm just trying to look at what we've got in a realistic light. To me that's more exciting, because then when you get positive results, it means we might actually win some games. I think our OL is going to be night and day better, and hopefully the LT too, and I think BJ will know how to call the running game with them, so I do expect our HBs to do well, and as a result, our play action passing game too. And all of that takes away opportunities for the defense to sack Williams. I think BJ gets this as well as anyone in the league. I do think without a consistent pass rush we can only go so far. A playoff appearance? Maybe even a playoff win? Those are possibilities, but when we meet the really good teams, we're going to wish we had a top 10 pass rushing DE, and a bell cow HB who can really strike fear into the defense and close out games with tough first downs. I think our team develop this year, hopefully learn how to reliably beat the bottom 2/3 of the league, and then we will come up against the good teams, and learn that it takes even more to get to the superbowl. And that's a great place to be for this year. Next year, having been good but gotten our asses kicked by a top team, we will add at DE and HB, and then we will be a real contender. This is all on schedule. But we are not quite there yet. Now luck, and growth of the team will play an important part. There is no real ceiling on most of what this team can do in December if they really gel. But without a feared pass rush, you can only hope to win shootouts or lucky situations when you come to teams like the Eagles etc who stand between us and championships. This will be a great growing year for Caleb. I think 10-7 or 11-6 are possible. Maybe even 12-5 if everything goes right, and we have a shot at winning the division too. But we are not there yet, even on paper, to be a dominant threat to win multiple Superbowls, and of course this is if everything goes best case scenario, which it seldom does. It's gonna be great to see them ascend to that next level, and then they will discover what it really takes to dominate, after losing a heartbreaker in the playoffs to a truly good team. And honestly, I think that's right on schedule.

Yeah, I agree things went very differently than I expected them to, but the quality of the scouting department is really shining through - identifying players who were not in the top 5 of their position groups who could still be starters. That allowed Poles to stay true to his philosophy, and even get played a few times for HBs, and still come away with prospects who can push to start in Trapilo, Monongai, Burden and Turner while still making a splash with a first round pick in Loveland, I still think the Bears are going to lean heavily on the running game, and that we will wish we had a better HB1, no matter who eventually wins the job. I thinbk with the league having moved toward more 2 safety looks to counter the modern passing schemes over the last few years, that there is a chance for dominant HBs to affect the game more than they did 5 years ago lets say. I think we might wish we had Cam Skatebo on the roster this year. I know we are gonna need another DE too. This is our biggest weakness right now, with HB as #2. But as you have said, no roster is ever complete, so for almost every team across NFL history, there are strengths and there are "holes" - in the quest to keep updating the roster there is never a time where you dont have a concern about some player or position group. I am hopeful about a lot of these players, but we all agree, we've been let down so many times before, let's at least see it in pads at camp before any asses are crowned LOL

I don't believe that 50% of top ten OL picks fail. I dont think Sweat and Dayo are enough at DE to challenge for a superbowl. It takes years to build a roster, and I assume DE will be a high priority next year unless we do something sooner. I do think we have some horses at DT now. I dont believe in Swift as a HB to take us where we want to go. Hes OK, but not a difference maker. Of course ALL rookies need to prove it on the field. Before the draft i hadnt heard of Trapilo or seen any tape. If I had, hed have been on my list of guys I wanted too. I am optimistic about him, but I need to see him and Amagadje in pads. Im not saying the roster is bad, Im saying its too early to be crowing about how all the pieces are in place. That's homer stuff.

As Luther Burden said on his twitter when he heard this... "Uh Oh"

I know! That's what I'm saying! Stinger was saying we had answers to all our questions, and I was saying it's way too early to count these chickens. And of course I want those chickens to hatch well. Just too early for me to call them all successes.

absolutely, and I like that Im hearing Trapilo is getting his assignments right and looks comfortable. in fact everything we've heard sounds really good, and the roster looks really good on paper. Im just not ready to say we have a complete roster, especially regarding DE, but while i HOPE beyond hope that we have a good LT on the roster, I just want to see it comfirmed in pads. I cant go in for sunshine and rainbows after all these years! But does everything we know look good so far? Absolutely!

But even BJ says it's not anything until pads come on? We have the guys we have and the next thing is to see what they look like in pads, and then you look to make moves after that - that the rhythm of the draft / free agency cycles every year. I'm just saying, I cant do this narrative driven "everything amazing" stuff every year. I am hopeful and optimistic about the roster for sure, but i cant tell you who our starting LT is yet, so i cant judge it and say its good yet either?