AZ54

Good analysis and backs up what we already know.

His knee surgery kept him out of most of the season and when he returned he was a part time player who was not nearly as effective as he was early in 2015. If he can return to form then absolutely I want him on the team. Reality is that he might never get back to that level of play and he may never be able to handle the number of plays expected of a starter.

Maybe you are right. Given what I read about him here he seems like a perfect fit for us. Pay the man and make it so! http://dawindycity.com/2017/02/08/chicago-...re-free-agency/ Some highlights What did they say when he was drafted years ago (i.e. would we want to draft him now): http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players...torical/1664166

Most in the NFL consider Luck a franchise QB. Tannehill has been alright but is not franchise level. Let's see what another season with Gase does for him. He also had the most uphill battle coming from very little experience in college. Stafford I think is a good QB. Seems like Cam Newton managed to win an NFL MVP award and take his team to the Super Bowl. Jameis Winston, Wentz, and Mariota have all shown enough promise to warrant their draft selection. It takes years to mature into the QB position in the NFL. Bortles hasn't been a failure yet. When drafting a QB you will most likely not get the "Pro Bowl" value of a player from another position but QB is different. If you don't have at least an average one you don't win at all. That's why an average QB like Andy Dalton makes $15mil/yr and All Pro "franchise" safety like Eric Berry will make $10mil. Even the top "franchise" Pro Bowl Left Tackles are making $12-13mil/yr. All I'm saying is value of the QB position cannot be correlated to value of other positions. IMO that means finding a good starting QB with a 1st Rd pick is comparable to finding a Pro Bowl player at another position with your 1st Rd pick. A couple other positions have a higher success rate than 1st RD QBs, but some don't. There are two other positions I'd take ahead of an average starting QB: An elite LT, or an elite pass rusher. We all know Von Miller won that Super Bowl not an average performing QB named Peyton Manning. Any other position, even Pro Bowl caliber talent, I know I can find in first round picks in years to come. Here's the biggest problem with QBs. The number of people who can successfully do this job in the NFL is very small. Compare that to the number of people who can play DT, LB, WR, etc. well and it becomes clear where you odds of success lie. In any draft history you look at it will always be easy to find a Pro Bowl players at other position who were drafted behind a 1st Rd QB. ---- This study is fairly well done. I just skimmed through some of it but most of the metrics used to evaluate success were good. QBs have a higher success rate in Rd 1-2 versus Rd 3-7. RB and WRs have a higher success rate in Rd 3-7 versus Rd 1-2. Fall 2013 Success or Bust? An Analysis of Dra Position and NFL Success Connor King St. John Fisher College http://fisherpub.sjfc.edu/cgi/viewcontent....sport_undergrad "...the results show that when drafting quarterbacks in the first and second round, NFL franchises get the majority of the selections right and do not take major risks when selecting quarterbacks." "This means that in the data’s sample size, running backs and wide receivers that were drafted in the late rounds of the NFL draft ended up being more successful than the first and second round players from each respective draft year." ------ If there is a good starting QB to be found in this draft we need to draft him even at #3. I think Trubisky can be that QB.

The more I think about what is best for this team 3 years down the road, the more I wave goodbye to Alshon Jeffrey. I think Pace plays the numbers game and will continue to spread his money out across the board, with one exception (CB). With this limited FA WR market and tons of cap space opening up, Jeffrey is going to get a huge deal, probably around $14-15mil/yr. That deal should not be matched. Nor should we tag him again. Walking away from Jeffrey might seem risky but I've seen far too many missed games for injury, and far too many games where he's not 100% and can't make those great leaping catches. Take that money and use it to sign 2 or 3 FAs. We can sign Robert Woods who has been in WR purgatory in Buffalo. He's 24/25 years old and entering his prime, which fits what Pace wants in his FA. He's been productive despite this: http://billswire.usatoday.com/2017/02/09/b...e-agency-looms/ "The former second-round pick from the 2013 NFL draft has spent the last four seasons in Buffalo catching passes from the likes of EJ Manuel, Jeff Tuel, Thad Lewis, Kyle Orton and Tyrod Taylor." While he might not have the catch radius Jeffrey has he also has more quickness in his routes. His deal will be perhaps half of what Jeffrey will get and with significantly less guaranteed money. Put him in the mix with Meredith, White, and draft a good prospect in Rd 3 and we'll have some good depth. We don't have a QB that will make Woods want to sign here so we'll over pay a bit to get his deal done. OTOH Woods will know that with 3 different QBs last year Cam Meredith put up 888yds so it is in the offense to throw the ball. Meredith can work out of the slot position if there are concerns about where Woods fits. --- TE: I think we like Brown and keep him around with Miller. Signing a guy like Gresham likely would happen late in FA because of the quality and depth in the draft. Any deal Gresham gets would likely have little guaranteed money so if we draft a player who ends up better, we cut Gresham. Or Miller gets injured. With a TE draft like this it's likely we'll see a couple other vets cut after the draft or in preseason so we can be patient here IMO. --- CB is where I think the big FA contract ends up. Between Porter getting old and Fuller getting scared to play we need a cornerstone of some sorts on one side of the field. It's going to be very expensive but we saved money by letting Jeffrey walk and we'll save more waving goodbye to Cutler. Rumor now is that Bouye will be available and he fits what Fangio wants in a CB. http://www.chron.com/sports/texans/article...ts-10858438.php --- DT/DE I think we should do an extension with Hicks and re-sign Washington. Then wait for 2nd tier FA to see what help we can add. Mario Addison is more of a 4-3 DE and I don't think he fits out scheme. If you go way down that list there is a guy William Gholston who is 6'7" and has the frame and quickness that fits 3-4 DE. He does not have the ideal strength and moving from 4-3 DE to the interior is a risk but the potential is there IMO. Jonathan Hankins who is more NT run stuffer might be a good 2nd tier FA as well, and we could kick Goldman out to DE on run downs. --- OLB I'd love to sign Melvin Ingram but he might get $15mil/yr. I'm not sure we'll go there but we could easily find the cap space by cutting Houston and McPhee. If McPhee is going to be a part time player he might renegotiate his deal and in that case it would be great to keep him around. --- FS I think SS is ok with Amos but I don't see us putting big money into this position. Help will come via the draft. If its a question of do we throw big money at Ingram and have no money for a FA Safety; I'd still take Ingram. What did I spend? Per Spotrac $11mil for Bouye $17mil for Ingram (I think he won't get that but I'll use it). $6-8mil for Hankins $8mil for Woods. Total $44mil We have $58mil in space now. With Cutler gone we have $72mil. $28mil minus perhaps $10mil for rookie pool leaves $18mil. That should fit in the extension for Hicks, re-sign Washington, and add other FAs to fill out the roster. We still have to sign a QB figure Hoyer will cost $5mil. Cutting McPhee/Houston adds another $13mil in cap space if we want to add another top tier FA.

We all need to keep in mind Fox and Fangio want players who can generate turnovers. Signing a CB who's best trait is run defense is not what they have in mind. If he's a decent CB why wouldn't NE sign him with all their cap space? Fangio said players either have a knack for generating turnovers or they don't. For that reason I'm not sure we wouldn't take Hooker over Adams if we take a safety at #3.

I believe both Leno and Massie blocked successfully for the best rookie RB in the NFL. They also managed to pass protect well enough for Hoyer to put up four 300+yd games, and Matt Barkley put up three 300+ yard games. Those guys were throwing to who on the WR corps? Massie started out really bad but once he got settled in with the new offense he was good. Later in the season he had to fight through an injury that affected his play. I'm ok with him again at RT and he won't have to go through the learning curve like he did last year. He'll always struggle against speed rushers but he'll also bury them on running plays. I think he's good enough for us going forward. Leno still has some work to do but again he wasn't horrible, there are inconsistencies in his game and he's limited against elite speed rushers. Leno does enough on run downs as a zone blocker to be effective but he doesn't have enough power, or play with enough leverage to move players around. I see more room or need here for an upgrade (vs. Massie) but this is not the draft to find that player, nor is there someone available in FA. Adams doesn't belong in the NFL, or at least not on the Bears. We need to find a solid backup OT that can challenge Leno to start on the left side. Brandon Albert seems to fit that perfectly. He's no longer a player you sign to be a multi-year starter but he might be able to give us one to two good years. Nor do I don't know if Albert can handle the RT spot. As a backup/starter caliber player he'd be a good addition for the right price. We'll have to wait and see if his market price comes down to what we want to spend. Unfortunately everyone knows this is a bad draft and bad FA year for OTs so that will inflate his value. Or we grab someone with potential in the draft but that's most likely not going to be a player who is ready to start this year. Certainly not start at LT. Best option this year: Find a good blocking TE to help out on one side or the other. Let the RB assist the OT on the other side if need be.

Good move. For the first time in a very long time we might actually have some good depth on the interior of the Oline this year.

Do not watch tape of Mahomes!

With the 49ers new DC having mostly a 4-3 background it would seem that's the direction they are going. Fans on one message board are not too enamored with Arik Armstead and if they switch to a 4-3 most speculate he'll end up at LDE. Not an ideal fit for his skills. If nothing else most seem to want a top tier FA DT brought in which would move AA to a backup role, or kick him outside to LDE. All of which makes it possible to see AA on the trade block. We'll see which FA the 49ers are connected to when we get to the combine as that could give a good idea where they see AA fit on their D. Other than that it's no surprise their fans are focused on the same targets we're talking about in FA. In my fantasy world I'd give them Cutler, a 4th Rd pick, and take AA off their hands. If I'm not mistaken Cutler was drafted by the younger Shanny's father but it's impossible to say if they'd have any interest.

Not interested. Too far past his prime and at absolute best he'll help for one season, and even that ability to "help" is in question. Stick to the plan with young players until we get a good core group in place.

Some highlights of Solomon Thomas. I think he has enough agility to handle some snaps at OLB. Watch him run down some RBs on plays to the outside and it's clear he's a far better athlete than McPhee.

Nooo...put big rumors out there that JimmyG is our main target. At least that has already happened so someone didn't keep quiet. After the big report there was nothing from the Bears saying it was inaccurate. Whether our desire to trade for JimmyG is true or not we should churn the pot again a week before the combine. That'll keep people chattering on that and maybe spending less time figuring out what else we're doing.

The Buffalo deal is tempting except the dead money setup in Taylor's contract is a killer. If he's just a temp guy to hold the spot down for a couple years I'd want more flexibility. It's possible there are ways out of it sooner with less impact. If Brandon Cooks can't be happy with Brees throwing him the ball then he'll never be happy here with Hoyer/Barkley/rookie. Based on that he doesn't seem to be the locker room presence Fox wants on the team. Then there's the expiring contract issue so a year later we could have nothing for our troubles. I always felt Haden was over-rated and certainly not worth $14mil. At 5'11" 190lbs (I think that's generous) he's not a great fit for Fangio's D. He'd be a decent holdover for a year or two but at a huge expense. If Cleveland wants us to swallow that contract for them then I'm taking #12, #33, #65 and Haden for #3 overall. With #33 or #36 I'd draft Hayden's replacement and give him a year or two to learn. If that's a bad deal for Cleveland, well that's the way it works when we're doing them a favor.

We all know replacing Unrein as our starter at RDE needs to be done. Remember, according to Fangio we're in a 3-4 alignment about 40% of the time. The other 60% we're in a 4-3 alignment. That means our 4-3 LDE, where I think Thomas a good fit, is getting more snaps than our 3-4 RDE, where Allen is the better fit. I'm well aware of my scouting limitations but here's what D. Jeremiah says: "Overall, Thomas could excel as a base end on run downs with the ability to kick inside and terrorize guards on passing downs." Willie Young is nothing more than a nice rotational player. More concerning is that Pernell McPhee may never again be able to handle a full-time starting role. Are we going to pay $7mil/yr for a part-time player? This year, with no real options on the roster, I'd say yes. However, in 2018 McPhee can be cut with $1mil dead money, and $7mil cap savings. It is quite possible the coaches and front office view finding a 4-3 LDE a slightly higher priority than the 3-4 RDE we're focused on, or at least equal needs. There is also Bullard who was drafted to fill that 3-4 RDE role and by draft time the team will have an idea if he's putting in the work needed to improve. FWIW McPhee can be cut this year with just $1.5mil dead money and $6mil in cap space so cutting him is a realistic possibility if his replacement (or replacements since it might be a combo of two players) is on the roster.

I'm not as high on Allen as others are. I'm higher on Thomas than others are so I see them somewhat comparable. I really need to see what they do at the combine to better compare their skills and talents. Thomas will always play lighter than Allen but with 2 or 3 shoulder surgeries already can Allen really hold up playing inside in the NFL? We don't get info on what those surgeries were for either.

Mahomes arm strength is very enticing. After re-watching several games of his last week I came to the conclusion he's not that fast as a runner so he'll absolutely have to learn to be a pocket passer in the NFL. Some of the reads he makes might cause Alaska to jump out of his igloo and scream as if we still had Cutler on the team. Bottom line for me is he's a bit more of a project than I first thought. I don't see trading back into the 1st Rd for him. One positive is that when he's right he'll make some scrambles and deep passes while on the run that remind me of Aaron Rodgers' throws. Like all of these young QBs so much will be determined by their one-on-one meetings and workouts with teams.

That might be the best comp for him. He's not extremely agile (as Floyd is) but he has very quick feet and the power to get an edge on a blocker, and then around them. For me he's just a quicker and stronger version of Pernell McPhee.

Sadly I have a full time job and a family so I'm not going to research case law on Workman Comp as it relates to NFL player claims. Every single case is different so expecting some standard answer as to WC benefits paid, number of years, etc. is not realistic. Some things to know: Much of what is paid in disability claims has long been established by the courts. Lose a finger at work and you'll get whatever the going rate is ($10k maybe $20k now). Lose an eye and the payment you will get is also somewhat standardized. In general those things don't stop you from working. If you become permanently disabled in a way that prevents you from working (i.e. going blind) you will get workmans' comp (WC) checks the rest of your life. What is being debated is how much should be in the check. You won't get full pay when on disability. If I remember it correctly somewhere in the articles it said generally payments would be 2/3 of your paycheck. Let's just use that number. Now there's a middle ground where you are disabled enough that you can no longer work the same job (NFL RB) but you can hold other jobs like UPS delivery driver. Say you were a UPS delivery driver ($75k/yr) and lost both legs and now you can only work at a lower paying office job at UPS ($40k/yr). Illinois law says UPS must pay you some of that salary differential as part of the workers comp. You won't get full pay but maybe 2/3 of the difference. Difference is 75k - 40k = $35k. Per the law you will receive WC differential pay of 2/3 of $35k = $25k annually. On top of your new $40k salary you will receive WC $25k for a total benefit of $65k. Current Law: For an NFL player who can't play RB anymore the wage differential from say $10mil/yr to $40k/yr is about $10mil/yr. The Bears will pay that player $6.6mil/yr until he's 67 years old. New Law: Injured player gets $6.6mil/yr until he's 35yr old, after which he'll get $25k/yr just like you or I would. To answer questions 1) the WC check an NFL player would get after the age of 35 would be similar to what any other person would get. If the player graduated as a nuclear engineer and could no longer do that work then their WC check might be higher than the football player who graduated with a leisure studies degree (as many players did when I was in college). 2) The WC check and NFL player gets up to age 35 will include about 2/3 of his projected NFL salary. Keeping it simple, if he were making $10mil/yr then he'll get $6.6mil/yr until age 35. 3) WC checks are paid by companies. Small businesses will likely pay premiums to an insurance company so they can spread the risk (tough to handle a big payment when you have 5 employees). I'm not sure about this, but I think for small companies some states also setup a fund they can pay into. From my experience large companies are almost always self-insured and pay claims directly off their bottom line. It's cheaper. It is the same with health insurance. They will likely pay a company to manage their WC claims just like they pay a health insurer to manage their health care claims. Blue Cross or Aetna never pay my medical bills, my company does, they just write the checks with the company name on it. 4) Regarding premiums, if you are self -insured as the NFL teams surely are then there are none. You just pay out claims. No claims equals more profit so they have incentive to keep players safe. 5) Even self-insured businesses could set aside or allocate money for claims even if there are none. The money just goes into an account they don't touch except for future claims. It helps to keep the WC payments stable between good years and bad years. 6) A company with lower WC claims and higher profits is actually good for the state and tax payers. Many people cry about the fact the NFL doesn't pay taxes but that's because teams pay the taxes themselves as their own profit loss center. If the Bears make more profit then they pay more taxes to the State of Illinois. Most citizens will think that's a good thing. 7) Injury settlements, which you seem to think are bad for players, are actually largely standardized based on WC case history just like injuries for any of us losing a finger. It's fairly settled case law and that is why players and their lawyers negotiate it a bit but quickly settle. You can waste a lot of money paying lawyers to sue but probably won't get a dime more, might get less, and then have to pay that lawyer from your winnings. Unless your state is running it's own insurance company for small businesses, which I'm not sure of, then there is no tax payer money involved in WC regardless how long the claims last. Even then the states aren't that stupid, if there is a bad year and they need more money they will raise premiums. If a business goes bankrupt then certainly there will no longer be a WC claim paid and the individual could then fall back on disability paid by taxpayers. Another business will never pick up someone else's WC claim. Therefore taxpayers have an incentive to help businesses like the Bears stay in business.

Stinger was right. It would appear Palmer, Fitz, and Arians are all tied together for one more run at it. That's still a plus for us because there is no way I can see a team so intent on winning now using an early pick on a QB. The first 3 rounds should net a player who starts or helps in some way.

Throw in the fact the Jets just hired Cutler's old friend Jeremy Bates as QB coach https://www.newsday.com/sports/football/jet...acks-1.13082874

Garoppolo will cost both picks and a somewhat significant bonus on a new contract. I don't think he'll get what Cutler will earn per season. If he's on the Bears I certainly hope not. Osweiller's contract is not the benchmark for a 2nd contract on an unproven QB, it's the benchmark for failure. Tyrod Taylor may be a FA as well but it's hard to say where teams see him vs. Cutler. The Houston Texans will be in the mix for a vet QB. They have many pieces in place on their defense and offense. Making the playoffs without Watt and without a QB they have to think if they can just get average play at QB they'll be in a very good spot. They have just $25mil in cap space and re-signing Bouye is a priority for them. That will take at least $10-12mil. What if they offer a 3rd Rd pick and Jonathan Joseph? I saw that last year the Patriots tried to trade for Joseph so he might be someone they are willing to give up in order to free up some cap space, $6mil. Again, it's a deep class for CBs so they can feel confident about finding a replacement.

Every time I read something from PFF I read it as if Cris Collinsworth was saying it, and it puts it all into perspective.

http://www.walterfootball.com/nflrumors/freeagency 2/1: Carson Palmer has moved his family out of Arizona and sold his home. - Mike Jurecki, FOX Sports Palmer hinted at retirement, and this is an even stronger sign. Palmer could still return for one year, but no one should be surprised if he hangs up his cleats. -Walter 2nd source: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/...out-of-arizona/ I said it before but Bruce Arians does not have the time before he wants to retire (or has to due to health issues) to rebuild with one of these rookie QBs. If Palmer is done he'll want someone who can play now. He's got two options: Romo and Cutler. Romo's contract carries a cap hit of $24mil and two more years on the deal, which precludes a trade. Arians can wait until he's a FA but then Romo can make his choice and that could well end up being Denver. Plus Romo has serious back injury question marks. Our man Cutler has much friendlier cap hit of $16mil in 2017 and $17mil in 2018. What will Bruce Arians give us for Jay Cutler? If Pace can get a 3rd Rd pick out of it then it totally changes his draft options. Trading our 2nd and 3rd Rd picks is enough to get back into the late 1st Rd should he like one of the QBs there (Kizer?). Trading both 3rd Rd picks can net another 2nd Rd pick where there is likely to still be some very good talent on the board: That could be 3 picks in the top 50.

What do layman's Workers Comp rules have to do with a change in the law regarding professional athletes? The law will still pay athletes permanent disability, should they need it, as equally as it would to you or I. Here's the text of SB12: http://www.ilga.gov/legislation/100/SB/PDF/10000SB0012lv.pdf 16 For accidental injuries involving professional athletes 17 that occur on or after the effective date of this amendatory 18 Act of the 100th General Assembly, an award for wage 19 differential under this subsection shall be effective for the 20 expected remaining duration of the employee's professional 21 sports athletic career. As used in this paragraph (d)1, 22 "professional athlete" means an individual whose employer is a 23 professional athletic team that is based in Illinois, 24 including, but not limited to, any professional baseball, 25 basketball, football, soccer, or hockey team based in Illinois 26 and who derives the majority of his or her income from playing SB0012 - 34 - LRB100 06318 KTG 16356 b 1 athletics for the professional athletic team. The expected 2 remaining duration of an employee's professional sports 3 athletic career shall continue until the employee reaches the 4 ageof35orforaperiodof5yearsfromthedateofthe 5 injury, whichever is later, unless the employer or employee is 6 able to successfully prove, by a preponderance of the evidence, 7 that the expected remaining duration of such employee's 8 professional sports athletic career has a shorter or longer 9 duration.