AZ54

Yep, IMO that's Tier 2 pay. $255mil/53 players so average salary is $4.8mil/yr. Next year it goes up another $30mil which equates to $5.4mil/yr across the roster.

After JJ expect no big money deals. I think we stick with tier 2 FAs at Safety and Center. I'd love to sign Christian Wilkins but there's no money or logic for doing that when you can fix 3 positions, C, S, and #3 WR for similar money.

Bills are negative $40mil in cap space, the worst in the NFL. That's after trading Bates. They ate $4mil in dead money, Bears pay Bates $4m/yr ea 2024/25. This is exactly what we've been paying Lucas Patrick the last 2 seasons. Patrick PFF grade = 50 Bates PFF grade = 78 That's one heck of an upgrade. Of course that's assuming he's our starting Center. Even as OG depth he's more than good enough to challenge Davis and at $4mil/yr this is a really good deal for us. Giving up a 5th Rd pick in a draft where we need a lot of picks to build depth screams trade down. That is of course just my dumb opinion. A team doesn't know for sure they can trade back from 9 until draft day, and really only when they are on the clock, so that means the most likely trade back is from #1. Poles has a better feel for the level of interest and a sense of the value he might get now that the combine week is over. I don't think that's imminent either but my spidey sense still says watch for Washington. As Phx said, Bates allows us room to draft a rookie and give him a year to learn, especially key if you want to move someone like Barton from OG to C. This is supposed to be a really good IOL draft. Don't get too fixated on the big names at Center. We have a lot of needs and Poles is big on value. Trading back and drafting Powers-Johnson in Rd 1 as many mocks have done doesn't scream value and now I'd guess that's completely off the table. Van Pran's stock is falling after a poor combine, he's likely day 3 now. There are better IOL options and from what I've read that goes well into Rd 3.

I'm good, just been relaxing staying out of the noise and confusion while watching more videos of prospects. Wanted to get my preferences in before things get cooking so I can see if I'm reading the tea leaves correctly, or wrong as usual.

I'm 100% out on Williams. I've been watching many reviews on Williams. Elite talent but red flags are all over the place for me and it's that floor that scares me. I see the arm talent and the pocket presence at times. Red flags on the field: These are correctable IF he's coachable. I see a guy who far too often holds onto the ball too long. So yes he can get out of trouble in the pocket but if he threw on time he wouldn't have to. People see the highlight play from the scramble and it's good that he can do that. But why can't he just take his wide open checkdowns? It's not that he can't throw on time it's that he often doesn't. He does not throw a lot of picks but I agree with one of the film analysts who said he's afraid to get hit. When he's under pressure he makes bad decisions and bad throws. Too often it just looks really bad. Seeing that trait on film in college where he's usually the best athlete in the backfield is a concern because the athletes coming after him only get better in the NFL. Again, this doesn't mean he can't learn to throw the ball away. I'm not sure how coachable he is when he's out there saying he's going to rewrite the record books and he hasn't seen an NFL defense yet. I'm not sure how coachable he is if he's in Chicago when he doesn't want to be there. Red flags off the field. Dude has no agent and is going to "negotiate" for himself. I've seen that game with Roquan and others and it's not pretty. On top of that he's already said he wants part ownership or something like that. I'm not sure where this is headed especially if.... He does not want to be in Chicago. Anyone who saw his quote from the press conference where he said he'd be excited to play in Chicago. Then he immediately said "it doesn't matter how I feel". Yes it does! Nobody makes that statement unless they would feel bad about their situation. Why this matters to me is leadership when times are tough. Times are tough in Chicago. If the Bears bypass a good QB in Fields (not great) plus a record draft haul in order to draft Williams then Williams will mostly play with the existing talent we have today. We'll add a few FAs and certainly one will be a better Center so that helps. Pick 9 might be a WR but might not be and the fall all the way back to 3rd Rd picks bypasses a ton of good 2nd Rd WR prospects. In that scenario all eyes will be on Wiliams to prove he's the guy. If he stumbles how does he handle the press conferences and the locker room? As to FA .... with cap space increasing by $30mil teams can hold onto any good player they want. We've seen this before with big cap increases. This year FA and next year with another $30mil boost forecasted will both be very soft in terms of avaliable FA talent. Of the few good ones that hit the market demand and lots of $$$ chasing them will make them way overpriced. Stay out of that business. Acquiring more draft picks now is the better approach IMO. Leadership... Williams' teammates sure didn't seem to have his back after the bowl game. I still think it's likely Williams is a very good NFL QB. He has enough talent to succeed. That alone doesn't sway me because I'm one of the very few who thinks we already have a good NFL QB. Even if Williams were to become Aaron Rodgers... that guy only won 1 Superbowl. If you're curious what an MVP caliber QB who is a prick can do to a team there is the evidence. Rodgers is well known for ignoring play calls and doing his own thing. Still one Superbowl win is better than what we have today. I agree, but I like the 49ers path where you load up a team with talent. We can do that with a good QB and a trade back, or two. The flip side watching Mahomes struggle all year long with an average WR corp. Their defense got them over the top. Now the eval for me is what is Drake Maye capable of. He didn't impress me in either of the games I watched but I can also see his arm talent is really good. Is it worth it to trade #1 to Wash and pick up both of their 2nd Rd picks and 2025 1st? Then trade Fields? I still have work to do on him but I've seen a few analysts say Maye is the best QB in this draft. Others say he's too inconsistent. Why would Wash give up so much to move up 1 spot? Simple. Their owner Magic Johnson is a former NBA player and in the NBA elite stars are all you need. 2 elite players and you are deep in the playoffs year after year. Find a 3rd wheel and you win the Championship. If he holds that same philosophy for the NFL QB, and people calling Williams the next Mahomes influences that, then he'll pay. I don't think he'll risk waiting until draft day either. Given the Kingsbury signing and the way it happened they might as well have put up billboard on the side of the highway listing their intentions. If I'm Poles I'm waiting on that deal with Wash. Then from #2 I sit likely until draft day and let all the other QB needy teams wonder what we're doing. In the meantime they will fall in love with one of Daniels or Maye. That could be New England getting nervous and we trade back to #3 as long as the Bears are content with Fields or whichever QB remains on the board. Do that and draft Maye or Daniels, trade Fields, and you're still sitting with multiple 1st/2nd round picks in future drafts. If Poles likes Fields he can trade back again from #3 and let the Giants or Atlanta draft the remaining top QB. Or if the Raiders come in big, go back to 13. We'd have so many extra draft picks in 2024, 2025, and maybe even 2026, that we could pull off one of Killa's elite drafts. Poles has to determine where the blue chip prospects end. Is it after pick 8, 9, 10, 11? If the Raiders come in with Maxx Crosby in the deal that offsets one of our blue chip needs at DE and it's easier to drop back to 13 while still grabbing one blue chipper at 9.

Halftime. I’m still waiting for the CJ Stroud is better than Justin Fields moment. What is better is his Oline.

Forgot to add we should draft his receiver Franklin too.

I forgot about him. He's an intriguing prospect. I'm still good with the trade down scenario and grabbing an insurance policy at QB.

It's the same thing as Fields it would be really nice if some site would put this data into a better statistical distribution. We look at average but what is the median value (50% above/below), are there two distributions one for pocket passing and one for scrambles? It's useless comparing guys like Fields and Williams who are elite at scrambling with players who will never ever extend a play like that. Time trend would be nice too... did things change and get better or worse during the season? Did opponent affect it? What happened to Williams from first half of season to second half where he didn't play as well?

I don't watch all the Bills games but of the 3 or 4 I did watch I didn't see a single good game from Josh Allen. All the stuff here about how we need someone to "play on time" within the offense.... almost none of that showed up. Admittedly that was earlier in the season and they played better down the stretch but at times he was just WTF awful throwing into coverage.

Why are there so many restrictions? Why couldn't Daniels be there at 9, his film isn't all that good? Penix is likely to be around into the 20s in this draft, he has a lot of limitations to his game plus a bad injury history. He might even go like Levis did early in the 2nd Rd. Who's to say some team doesn't prefer Maye for their system vs. Williams and take Maye #1? Teams do crazy stuff like trade up for Trey Lance. That said, the only QB I would draft in this class is Williams at #1 overall. Maye I like and he has some upside in a couple aspects of his game over Fields but downside in others. His value for me is not worth taking the risk over Fields + massive trade down haul. Daniels is Justin Fields in a skinny body. I see exact same issues and learning curve with him. I like his upside long term but again the risk/value vs. known quantity in Fields plus draft trade haul puts a far better team on the field over the next 5 seasons. For a running QB, how does that narrow frame hold up to NFL contact? Penix has too many limitations to his game for my taste and his injury history is a big red flag. I think he'll be a decent starter in the NFL on the right team, but is just as likely to wind down his career as a backup. I'd guess he'll follow the career arc of players like Derek Carr or JimmyG. He will be a favorite of media people who love pre-draft workouts. If I break the rules: I'm not totally opposed to drafting JJ McCarthy in the 2nd Rd. I can take my massive haul for the trade down but hedge my bet on the QB position with a good talent who might just need time away from Harbaugh to get his head on straight. He's more like Purdy than anyone else in this draft including with the arm strength limitations. Yet on the right team with that talent from the trade down he could well be good enough.

Urlacher had a somewhat public run in with Cutler. Mike GLemon didn’t garner any vote of confidence. Trubisky either. Kyle Orton. Rex Grossman. This is getting depressing

I never thought I’d see this written from a bears fan. I don’t even need to list our decades long QB history.

Should be this weekend for the announcement or very early next week. HC interviews are ongoing and some will be settled by next week. It’s obvious the Bears want their pick of the OC litter.

Ian interviewed with Chargers over the weekend. Harbaugh just interviewed for the coaching job and it "went well". Who knows where that lands. My question is would Cunningham want to be a GM in a place where he didn't get to hire the HC? Especially a HC like Harbaugh who is going to want some control over the roster, if not full control.

You can't watch this and not think we're taking Williams #1 overall. I still question his leadership and that's a huge red flag at the moment for me. He is just 21 and most people grow over time but I don't want a selfish Kyler Murray type on the roster regardless of physical talent. Just like Jalen Carter last year how Williams handles the draft process will determine a lot for me. I also need to see the measurables just for validation. 6' and under starts getting tricky to play QB in the NFL, that's another issue Murray has to deal with. If things don't go his way early can Williams handle the negative press coverage? Boos in the stadium? Plus in Chicago he'd have to win over the locker room and that won't be easy. Can he handle a 4 game losing streak where he played poorly and continue to put the work in and lead the team? This is a weird situation for me because I still think Fields is a top 15 QB in the league and will easily grow into a top 10 QB with the right talent around him. The options are Fields plus a bounty for trading down which could easily net the Bears a few more Pro Bowl caliber players. Assuming Poles continues to draft well, then the trade down scenario gets so much future talent it almost certainly sets this team up long term to be a perennial playoff contender. Draft Williams and trade Fields also gets something but not nearly as high, plus carries risk of Williams flaming out. Williams has to be good enough to offset the talent gap of what we'd lose over the next 2 drafts. Some might say the rookie contract is enough to offset that with FAs. Williams is almost certainly headed to Chicago for a pre-draft visit.

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/caleb-williams-draft-scouting-2024/

I doubt we go with Roman as our new OC as his track record doesn't demonstrate the "fixes" we need as a passing offense. I think he would be a great addition to the offensive staff as an assistant/run game coordinator. Naturally I think the new OC, really all of these interviews involve heavy discussion on Fields. Therefore whoever gets the job I think will have some sway. There is a risk of hiring the guy who gives you the answer you want to hear. Since Fields was here before this staff that could be for or against. Or you better draft one of these top 3 QBs to hedge your bet.

Eagles for me. Dallas always comes up short of expectations every season. The only question mark is how they will do that as each year they seem to find a new way to fail. Likewise you can put the Chargers and all their "top NFL talent - QB, RB, WRs, DEs" in the same mix. I can't be disappointed in Rodgers injury since it took away a high pick from the Packers.

There's no shortage of folks willing to do the same and disregard the all the ethical issues with Harbaugh. This is just a 2023 list. https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2024/1/1/24017858/michigan-rose-bowl-jim-harbaugh-suspension

Why didn't Getsy do what on perimeter blocking? He had Tonyan out there, it wasn't a ton of snaps but that also likely because he's a matador as a blocker.

I put together a post awhile back about elite TEs and what they mean to an offense but I think it got deleted accidentally. So I've been thinking about Bowers for some time. A TE with a 41" vertical leap and runs 4.5 forty (reportedly) is a rare beast. He tracks the ball as well as any receiver, including MHJr. What has a great TE meant to .... Brady? He took Gronk out of retirement to help him win another Superbowl. When he didn't have Gronk over the years due to injuries their entire offense suffered. Purdy has Kittle. Mahomes has Kelce and when Kelce's not on the field that offense looks a lot different. Lamar Jackson has a really good receiving TE too in Andrews. Rivers... Gates Fouts... Winslow. (I'm old) I like Kmet and I'm glad we extended his contract but if Tonyan were any good at all blocking or catching this year would have looked so much better. I don't know how many whiffs Tonyan had on blocks that could have broken big plays. He dropped a couple passes one of which was a TD that could have won us a game. If I put Bowers on those blocks our WR screen or RB screen is out of the gate. His receiving speaks for itself and I think he can be a joker that can elevate the rest of the receivers.

I know there is more to it than he goes over but the trend for Wright across the season was upward. It was really obvious, at least to me, in the repeat games (Detroit, GB, Minn) that he had a much better handle on the players across from him. Now he carries those lessons into a full offseason. OTOH I saw somebody with their 2023 draft grades give him a C because he gave up 7 sacks on the year. A lot of people isolate stats simplistically and that doesn't tell the story across a 17 game season. Nobody puts together a time trend for example, box plots, opponent level of play, supporting talent around them, did they account for the games he played injured and could only block with one arm, etc. You just get assigned a number, or a grade. It's interesting to watch.

Of course. Feeney showed why he was an easy trade midseason. Even without that on individual blocks guys were just getting beat. Nobody looked like they came to play. Saw a lot of that on D too.

I find it hard to believe someone could write all that and yet not name a single person they wanted to thank. This reads like a Hallmark card.