AZ54

Poles has said elite money has to be matched against elite performance and elite football character. I can't see him spending top dollar on Davenport. A 2nd tier FA feels like a better fit here especially with a deep draft of edge rushers.

I did something similar with a few trade backs but their player rankings are so far off from reality that's about all you can use it for.

Been watching the Senior Bowl updates as well. After this I'm about to go do a double trade back scenario draft. First trade with Houston, then trade with Carolina and see how many top 100 picks I can get.

How many 6th Rd picks does it take to find one Pro Bowl player? It's here and it's clear that the best chances of finding starter caliber players lies in the first 100 draftees. Beyond that you are getting more fringe players but of course there are always exceptions. Oddly UDFA have higher % of starters in the league than any of Rds 3-7. That may be in part due to some UDFA recovering from injuries affecting draft status, or character red flags. When you look at their % games started it's clearly Rd 1-3 where the bulk of NFL starters get chosen. Look at the % Reaching All-Pro status. 48% of All Pros come from Rd 1. 2nd Rd picks land at 14%. Here again UDFA out perform even 3rd Rd picks with 10.5% over 8.8%. (article is from 2015 but I don't think the NFL draft landscape has changed much since then) https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/?sh=6d01e3197495

It’s only day 2 but Senior bowl practices seem to be helping a few DTs move up. We’ll see how the top 100 looks next week. If we want, we can get two good edge rushers out of this draft between day 1 and day 2. WR depth for middle rounds is showing up as well.

I stand corrected, I forgot Harbaugh had visited them. Harbaugh turning down $100mil seems odd unless he wanted more control over the roster including what to do at QB.

...and a big fat F for hiring the wrong guy last year. This is a face-saving move but giving up more draft picks again is really limiting the future of this roster. Interesting that they went after Demeco Ryans first and Payton was the 2nd choice.

Gervon is perplexing because he has talent but is so slow off the snap he's usually the last man to move. Sometimes everyone else is already upright as he's just coming out of his stance. I don't know if that can be coached out of him but in the NFL giving up a first step like that is not going to end well especially on run downs.

https://saintswire.usatoday.com/2023/01/31/sean-payton-saints-broncos-trade-compensation/ According to Schefter, the Saints will receive the Broncos’ 2023 first-round pick (No. 30) and a 2024 second-round pick for Payton and New Orleans’ 2024 third-round selection

An athletic freak who could only muster 2.5 tackles for a loss, and 0.5 sacks in 14 games? In 3 seasons at Mich he's had a whopping 3 tackles for a loss, and that half sack is the grand total for his career. That's despite playing next to Hutchinson who was a top 10 pick. If that was the best he could do against college Olinemen how does that translate to more production against NFL Olinemen? I don't see much here against TCU. In fact his strength is his best asset and they easily moved him whenever he was doubled, even at the goal line. If you can't get pass rush at least hold your ground. My guess is he ends up as just a 2-down depth player in the NFL. There are also a ton of plays where he just stands around if the ball doesn't come right at him. I can't see how that style fits in with Eberflus' HITS ethos. I've said before there just doesn't seem to be much talent at DT in this draft. Hopefully we get some surprises out of the Senior Bowl, or maybe there are some lesser rated prospects who move up as learn more info. Even Jalen Carter and Bresee have significant questions surrounding their game. I'm all-in on using FA to fix DT this year. There are a lot more options in the top 100 at Edge. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YwcDhTgQ-c

Possibly they could line them up in the same manner but he'll know Wash will use him the same way they have in the past. I don't know how he was utilized but if he wants to be a pure 3-tech on each down and get upfield he'll likely want to go elsewhere.

I can see Poles in a conference room with his staff.... We need a patsy or two to spread rumors about us trading Justin. Who in the media should we "leak" info to?

Maybe he should be? https://www.sbnation.com/2018/3/28/17132626/nfl-draft-2018-daron-payne-breakdown https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2769384-daron-payne-nfl-draft-2018-scouting-report-for-washington-redskins-pick "Da'Ron Payne is still developing as a pass-rusher but showed in the national title game that he can dominate interior linemen when allowed to penetrate. Payne has the strength, quickness and motor to attack when freed up but will also play smart team football."

Maybe these dates have been posted elsewhere but we are a little over a month out from knowing who is available in FA. Wash has less than $7mil in cap space available right now. Wentz will be gone and free up $26mil but do they try to pick up a vet like JimmyG or Carr, or even make a play for Lamar Jackson? I could see Baltimore letting Jackson go in a tag and trade scenario and then drafting Richardson. The DT franchise tag is forecasted to be $19mil. New coaches and GMs are in place. After the games tomorrow the rumor mill starts to slowly ramp up. I can't see Rivera being comfortable putting his future solely in the hands of Heinicke, who is a FA and would likely want something around $10mil if he's brought back to be a starter even on a 1yr deal. Keeping Payne, at least on a franchise tag, really limits their options. If they can't get a deal done then I expect they'll try to tag and trade him. This is where having a ton of cap space really benefits us as opposed to other teams. We will likely still have room to swing a deal late in FA whereas other teams with more limited budgets might have to spend for the better FAs early on rather than risk getting nothing. https://commanderswire.usatoday.com/2023/01/28/washington-commanders-head-coach-ron-rivera-new-oc-need-to-win-next-year/ https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10038729-nfl-offseason-schedule-2023-draft-free-agency-franchise-tag-dates-announced "Tuesday, February 21, marks the beginning of the franchise and transition tag window, which will end on Tuesday, March 7. The league year will begin on Wednesday, March 15, and that also marks the start of the free-agency signing period."

It's funny because there are pundits openly saying the Bears should draft a new QB and then trade Fields. Some fans are up in arms about that (think Swift) but for me any noise about us possibly taking a QB is ok as it can make other teams nervous about if there will be a QB left for them. In other words they really need to trade up and ideally remove any doubt about what the Bears might do out of the equation.

I'll take the HoF player. We can find starters in any draft or FA. HoF players should be the types who alter the game plan of the other team. That player could be lurking in 5-10 range like the CB Christian Gonzalez, DT Bresee, or Edge Tyree Wilson.

I want the player whose best years are ahead of him not behind him.

I don't want anyone on the team who would be happy getting benched. It might helpful having someone help him focus simply on himself, how to become as good as he can be and build self-confidence from that process, instead of worrying about or just expecting the end result (i.e. position title, money).

I think Whitehair is a decision made late in the offseason. Most likely we'll wait to see if a young player like Carter can take over, or possibly even a 2023 draft pick That could also involve a FA we bring in late (someone else's camp cut since we are first on the waiver wire).

BTW there is no reason a trade down inside the top 5 can't also include a 1st Rd pick in 2024.

It is early in the process so for now I prefer to trade down but stay in top 5. As more info comes in I'm warming up to trading back further. For example I'm warming up to the idea of drafting Tyree Wilson over Anderson. That idea involves a double trade down scenario. It would be interesting to repeat this poll after the combine.

Good article and some good signs of maturity even if he might not be fully there yet. He acknowledges the need to improve his strength and conditioning to avoid injury. Hopefully he's bought into these coaches and puts in the work this offseason. https://sports.yahoo.com/teven-jenkins-found-peace-wake-154000188.html?src=rss

I'm with you here. Purdy's struggles in the redzone last week will only be magnified on the road. Hurts has the Oline to handle SF edge rushers, and the speed to make them pay if they can't. From what I've seen Hurts is also more composed in the pocket than Dak, at least the version of Dak we saw last week. Philly by 7. Cincy beats KC on the road. I don't care about Mahomes having a full practice this week there is no pass rush to avoid. His magic is largely dependent on his ability to buy time outside the pocket. That won't stop the KC offense, and he should be able to move around and even get outside the pocket a bit, but his clock is going to working a tick faster than he wants it to. He needs to avoid forcing things when plays breakdown.

A first pass at positional strength in the draft. I'm sure nuances could be debated but I doubt they are far off the collective on this. The good news for us is that Edge is 1, and DT 2. WR is 3rd but it's more depth in the middle 2nd/3rd Rd versus top talent. In 4th is OT with 13 prospects in the top 150. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10062861-ranking-each-positional-group-in-the-2023-nfl-draft-from-worst-to-first

He rose above a lot of 1st Rd picks to get this recognition. https://www.chicagobears.com/news/braxton-jones-named-to-pfwa-all-rookie-team