AZ54

Alec Pierce I'd have been good with. Pickens has already had one public blowup on the sidelines and I simply don't care about his talent level he's not someone I want on a rebuilding team. FWIW Abraham Lucas has a lower overall PFF grade than Larry Borom.

Forgot to add I found a new stats website I liked so thought I'd share it. https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player-stats/

As a KR Velus flips the field at least once and sometimes twice a game. For a team with an inept offense that often goes 3 and out that's a big help as the ensuing punt puts the other team on a long field. If we get anything going on offense we need just 30yds of offense for a FG. I don't think that alone is worth a 3rd Rd pick but if he can just add a little on offense with some big plays here and there it's about right. If you look at this PFF analysis comparing 1st and 2nd Rd WRs performance...look at the 3yr survival rate of WRs by draft Rd. In many ways there is minimal difference between 1st and 2nd Rd WRs. Since they didn't compare later rounds other than the 3yr survival rate we have to assume the lower survival rate means a significant dropoff in production. It's only worse after that. Based on that article the sweet spot for WR value is the 2nd Rd. With that said, looking at the WRs taken after Velus in the 3rd Rd we have: Jalen Tolbert w/ 12yds receiving total, 53 special teams snaps David Bell w/ 214yds receiving total, 116 special teams snaps Danny Gray w/ 10yds receiving total. 15 special teams snaps Velus is sitting in 2nd place with 61yds rcv. 111 specials teams snaps Velus is 11th in the NFL in KR yards with 525. The others have none. Before he got benched Velus had 35 PR yards, the others have none. 4th Rd WRs: Ezukama. no stat line, Dobbs 425yds receiving, 3 special teams snaps Calvin Austin no stat line 5th Rd WRs: Shakir. 133yds receiving, 18 special teams snaps Montrell Washington, 271yds receiving, 271 special teams snaps but his KR long is 29yds (Velus is 63yds and averages 29yd/return) Kyle Phillips, 78yds receiving, 7 special teams snaps I'm not taking the time to go further down the draft. This was a "value" exercise for me to see if Poles grabbed the right WR. Dobbs might have been the better WR but offers nothing on special teams. Velus has been disappointing as a WR but excelled as KR when he holds onto the ball. Year 2 will be telling but based on the other WRs drafted after him Velus fits in simply because of his versatility. The question remains were there players at other positions that offered greater value when he was chosen?

Ah, we forgot to account for the Josh McDaniels effect. Denver, LA Rams, and TB's complete and utter ineptness shocked me the most. TB is only 8-8 out of the kindness of others.

Nothing looked right today on offense or defense. He's going to keep seeing a lot more Wide-9 fronts to keep him from getting outside. Getsy will have to adapt to that for next year.

The Packers destroying the Vikings means they are likely coming into next week focused on winning. You don't want to take that loss and then a loss to a 3-12 team into the playoffs. At a minimum the first half they'll be focused on starters executing, then maybe they rest some players. Regardless our defense with the remaining players can't stop anyone.

That was just a bad game overall. Not much to say other than this is the end of a very tough year with a lot of 2nd, 3rd, and even 4th string players on the field. Among the various takeaways is that Morrow isn't a starting LB in this league. He's way too late on his reads. He might run a 4.5 forty as compared to Sanborn but when you watch them play you'd swear Sanborn ran the faster time.

The defender had his hand inside between Kmet's arms? If he tucks the ball the defender knocks it out. Nothing about it was an easy play.

In a game full of future NFL talent he stood out. With this draft starting to look more below average with few blue chip prospects I’m not totally opposed to a trade down scenario that gets us another first next year.

That may well be but what matters most is that we have a legit QB who can lead this team for years to come. Happy New Year!

No doubt. I kept waiting to see something but it was a whole lot of nothing. Good player but I didn’t see signs of greatness.

I've been watching him all game. His QB doesn't often look his way and he's often struggling to get early separation. Or his QB just doesn't look his way. For a guy who supposedly is a top 10 or top 15 draft pick this game isn't a convincing argument. So far my biggest takeaways from the game are that maybe there are a couple TCU DBs or some Oline players we should be talking about.

Ryan Poles: You want me to take who off your hands? For just a 2nd Rd pick? Nah, umm, hold for a minute I have another call...

Derek Carr's Dead Money in 2023 is just $5.6mil and Cap Savings are $29mil. They can outright cut him and have plenty of money to sign a mid-tier QB to hold down the fort, Brissett for example who only makes $5mil this year, and have a lot of money left over. https://overthecap.com/player/derek-carr/2975

I just worked off the OvertheCap values which I linked to. They could very well be wrong. I can't paste a screenshot in here but they say Dead Money and Cap Hit Post Jun 1st are just $8mil/season for 5 years. If it all accelerates to one year then maybe that's an issue for Oakland. Pre-Jun 1st they show $39mil Dead Money and -$27mil hit to cap space. Maybe thats an issue, maybe it's not. If they care to go down the rebuild path the Bears chose then consider that we are carrying $88mil in dead money this year. Once a team goes down the QB rabbit hole that whole playoff/Superbowl horizon changes dramatically. You are likely best suited to get younger talent and shed your vets. The Raiders do have another option if they want to pursue someone like JimmyG and then see if he can take the existing talent further. However, re-tread QBs don't have the best track record in 2022 so it'll be interesting to watch this play out. Which scenario buys the GM/HC the most time from the owner to find success?

The DB is draped all over him because he can't run. With his long legs I'd be very curious to see how well he gets in/out of his cuts. That's just this guy but your point is valid.

Buffalo knew exactly what they were getting in NFL production with that pick, Minnesota did not. So yes there was an additional salary cost for the known commodity but that's how business works.

Quite honestly the fans here on this message board are all way above the TV broadcast crews in game knowledge or at least in how they present the game. There are some exceptions and guys like Romo add context I enjoy, the same goes for Eli and Peyton on MNF. Those guys are always watching the play from the moment the huddle breaks and you can see it in their eyes about 1s into a play they already know what should happen. The internet has definitely changed things and we can scout players somewhat and watch All-22 film post game plus DVRs are everywhere. Slowly networks will realize this and you'll see more of the Romo/Manning style commentary. Hopefully there will be much less of the Captain Obvious Kirk Herbstreit style commentary. "He's 6'5" and here you can see he uses his length to stretch out for the first down. That's really good football."

I thought it was just my eyes but I've always thought he processes things too slowly after the snap. Maybe pre-snap alignment calls are ok? He has the more obvious physical limitations that show up from time to time where he gets blown up or beat to one side very quickly. More often than I see those events, I just see him looking lost on who to block. When I watched Swift's breakdown on Eiselen, it was interesting that he seemed to show good vision on picking up stunts or late blitzes. Interesting because he has far less game experience. Even in spots where he had nobody to block Dieter stayed in his lane and you could see his head on a swivel looking left and right multiple times in one play. When he provided help to the OT or C it was with one arm without giving up his lane. OTOH Mustipher will give up his pass pro lane early on if he has nobody to block and chase someone left or right even if his OGs don't need the help. He literally turns 90 degrees and thus can't do anything to cover his lane. That has given up a few sacks due to some teams taking advantage of that tendency with delayed blitzes right up the middle unabated. Or like this play where he was celebrated for taking a guy down to the ground but Teven was probably thinking where did Mustipher go?

Just a little joking around at Mustipher's expense. He is exactly the kind of player who has a 10 year career, and will be a starter at times for other teams. Lucas Patrick has had the same type of career so far. Always the guy you want to upgrade, always the player you can survive with when he starts.

Maybe Mustipher is the one getting out of position and tripping everyone else, or letting Dline run free and blowup a play?

Yeah, that's not my problem. What we don't know is when Josh McDaniels was hired what was quietly said about the team. Did McDaniels tell them that Carr was not his QB but was he asked if he could try to make it work for 1 season? If that didn't work would the GM and owner then allow him to blowup and rebuild the roster? For a new HC to give up 1yr of his short leash is a challenge. The Bears were in a similar spot and I believe Poles and Eberflus committed to 1 season with Fields but also had the green light to move on in 2023 if they desired. Of course they had no realistic option with no 1st Rd pick and no cap space. Regardless, there is no doubt the QB position comes up in any GM/HC hiring process. In 2022 McDaniels and the GM had options and decided to use their resources to bring in Adams. "See if we can make this work with Carr". They kept their powder dry for 2023 and now have a new slate of options. Dangling Adams as trade bait to move up and get a QB is not out of the question. Per OTC they will of course lose their $43mil cash they paid him last year. People say they wasted the money but in effect they are using it to help buy a draft pick. Is that too much to buy a top pick in the draft and your future starting QB? In the context of what Denver paid last year (draft compensation plus salary for Wilson) it is not. In fact it's a much better deal. https://overthecap.com/player/davante-adams/2992 If the Adams trade is labeled as "post Jun 1st" then LV carries just $7.8mil in dead cap space for each of the next 5 years. Or the length of their rookie QB contract. Their cap savings go from $4 to 6/17/36mil per year over the next 4 seasons, starting in 2023. If that is correct then it is very feasible for them trade him. I'm not confident on this but it appears the Bears would carry Adams with cap hits of: $14.5 mil and then $25mil in 2024. He'd never see the $44mil in 2025 but we'd be free to renegotiate if we wanted, or just cut him and give that $44mil to Mr. Fields. That's the downside because it could just be a 2yr rental on a top 5 WR. If you think you can win the Superbowl in 2024 that would be worth it. On the flip side, having just 2 realistic years on the deal is also why Poles would be asking for that 2nd Rd pick. Adams went there in part to play with his good friend Carr. He is not likely to be happy seeing him benched and the team moving forward with a new QB. At his age, 31 in 2023, that makes a ton of sense and he'll likely want to go to a playoff team. With so much cap space, every agent is likely to want to talk with Poles at the combine. Adams' agent might be part of that long line.

Even if Whitehair is back I still want to see Dieter get more snaps. Of course he could take them at Center which is what I'd really like to see.

For me that's a no-brainer deal. The loss of cap space by taking on that high salary is offset enough by the two draft picks. 9 overall is still high enough that we can add someone like Skoronski or Bresee. I can't figure out who I'd take at 40 if we already had Skoronski because I still have a lot of scouting to do. If Bresee were the pick at 9 then there are plenty of Rd 2 Oline on the board.

We cut Taco Charlton which is neither a surprise nor a disappointment. Eberflus apparently indicated Justin Jones will spend some time at DE this week. That's not a good sign so Jones is definitely a bubble player for next years roster. However, I wonder if they'll bring up DE Sammis Reyes from the practice squad. We're in roster experimentation mode and Reyes is old (27), so it's now or never for him. There could also be a DT on the practice squad they want to get some snaps but again most of those DTs are older players so we pretty much know their ceiling.