jason

http://walterfootball.com/draft2015.php 1 - Kevin White, WR, WVU 2 - Jordan Phillips, NT, OK 3 - TJ Clemmings, OT, Pitt (AJ Cann available) 4 - Lorenzo Mauldin, DE/OLB, Louisville 5 - Charles Gaines, CB, Louisville 6 - Andy Gallik, C, Boston College I'm on record as being not too high on Kevin White. I hope it's Cooper instead. Phillips at 2 works very well. I think AJ Cann is a better pick at 3. 4-6 I'm not overly excited about, but I get it.

With the first pick in the fourth round, pick 100, the Titans select Trey Flowers, DE, Arkansas. Good prospect as a rush edge. I think he'll be surprisingly good, especially if he falls all the way to the fourth. The Patriots (Boston) are on the clock

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-tea...beat-the-draft/ It basically says that nobody is beating the draft. Most are average at best. Only a few teams do well consistently, and even then their main guys get fired after one or two misses. It also analyzes the GMs (I'd love to see where Angelo falls into that analysis). I particularly liked the portion about "The Loser’s Curse", which essentially "argues that NFL decision-makers shouldn’t be so quick to attribute the apparent efficiency of the draft market to an abundance of picking skill. To do so is hubris." I've been saying this for quite some time. These owners/GMs aren't as good at picking players as everyone tries to give them credit for, and their proximity to the issue probably creates overconfidence despite the complete crap-shoot nature of the draft.

That's precisely what I hope happens. I hope Fangio thinks he can work with the roster considering the number of quality guys on the team. Regardless of their history in a 3-4. Then that opens up the Bears to need-based BPA, and filling holes at WR, OL, and S.

I'd be fine with that. That also gives the Bears flexibility. BUSH - SLAUSS - WILLMO - LONG - PEAT PEAT - SLAUSS - WILLMO - LONG - BUSHROD BUSH - SLAUSS - WILLMO - ROOKIE - LONG PEAT - SLAUSS - WILLMO - ROOKIE - LONG

One minor tweak to my original: 1(7)-DANNY SHELTON, NT (I just get a feeling that the last few weeks have been a smokescreen, and the target gets back to him.) 2(39)-DORIAL GREEN-BECKHAM, WR, (Feels like another Moss to me) 3(71)-HRONISS GRASU, C, (Leader of the OL, great mobility, starts for a decade) 4(106)-ROB HAVENSTEIN, T, (Monster. Locks down RT and lets Long stay inside for multiple pro-bowls, fits with the new run-first philosophy) 5(142)-JACOBY GLENN, CB, (Great hands, good anticipation, great drive on the ball) 6(182)-JAKE RYAN, ILB, (Tackling machine. Good gap discipline. Leader. Great motor.)

DepenD's on whether or not they actually miss games.

That would be pretty crazy, but I still don't know if I'm a fan of grabbing an OLB. I'm holding out hope that Collins drops to us in the 2nd. That would be unreal. And unforgivable if passed on.

I don't mind that draft, but I'd rather see 2nd & 3rd rounds flip-flopped. I still think we need to see what the hell the guys on roster can do in a 3-4 front.

Perhaps. But when the Bears could have first signed him, he was still a stud. Same for Moss. I was calling for both of them back in 2005ish. Here's the oldest post I could find on this board.

I agree, but if nobody is willing to trade, then what's the good move? In my opinion, if the draft plays out that way, I would think it's either Peat, Scherff, or Shelton. I'd hate the third best WR at the 7 pick. That would be atrocious. And I'm just not a fan of getting an OLB edge rusher when there are so many potentials and unknowns on the roster.

I'd take him if he fell. I don't care about boy scouts. I want players. Same reason I have called for the following in the past: TO, Moss, Burfict, etc.

LOVE the first three rounds. After that, meh.

Winston at 13?!?! Lost all credibility right there. That guide, regardless of the details, is garbage.

I didn't see the exact picks, but if Williams, Cooper, and White are gone, does everyone here hate the idea of Scherff at 7? I obviously like it. The right side of our OL would be absolutely nasty.

I conferred with my die-hard Seahawk friend, and he threw me a curveball. The Seahawks select Damarious Randall, FS, Arizona State. Carroll likes to pick out of the box, and Randall is thought to be more CB than FS...but the versatility is the type of move they covet. Who better than Sherman to train under? Boston and the Patriots are up for the double dip.

Landon Collins is very good. I'd love him on the Bears.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000048...k-draft-round-3 1 - Kevin White, WR, WVU 2 - Jordan Phillips, NT, Oklahoma 3 - Paul Dawson, ILB, TCU 4 - Lorenzo Mauldin, OLB, Louisville 5 - Kevin White, DB, TCU 6 - Kurtis Drummond, FS, Mich.St. I don't really like the Mauldin pick, but that's not bad.

Ahhhh...you are doing the points, and not the position. I didn't even realize that after you replied.

We all know the inherent flaws to this concept, but it's an interesting test nonetheless. I ran three what-if mocks (two of which are previous threads) through the process. Fanspeak draft where Leonard Williams falls 1(7)-LEONARD WILLIAMS, DT, 3 = +4 2(39)-BENARDRICK MCKINNEY, ILB, 51 = -12, total -8 3(71)-DERRON SMITH, S, 103 = -32, total -40 4(106)-ROB HAVENSTEIN, T, 115 = -9, total -49 5(142)-IFO EXPRE-OLOMU, CB, 99 = +43, total -6 6(182)-SEAN MANNION, QB, 140 = +42, total +36 So we gain a 5th rounder. Talksbears attempt to agree mock 1(20)- MALCOLM BROWN, DT, 22 = -2 2(39)- DEVIN SMITH, WR, Ohio State, 47 = -8, total -10 2(52)- LAKEN TOMLINSON, OG, Duke, 48 = +4, total -6 3(71)-DAVID COBB, RB, Minnesota, 107 = -36, total -42 4(106)-KURTIS DRUMMOND, FS, Mich. St., 141 = -35, total - 77 5(142)-ZA'DARIUS SMITH, OLB, Kentucky, 102 = +40, total -37 6(182)-CODY FAJARDO, QB, Nevada, 239 = -57, total -94 So we lose a 4th rounder. My final mock, where Williams falls (I really think this will happen) 1(7)-LEONARD WILLIAMS, DT, 3 = +4 (Starts at DE immediately. ) 2(39)- , WR, 32 = +7, total +11 (Feels like another Moss to me) 3(71)-HRONISS GRASU, C, 60 = +11, total +22 (Leader of the OL, great mobility, starts for a decade) 4(106)- , T, 115 = -9, total +13 (Monster. Locks down RT and lets Long stay inside for multiple pro-bowls, fits with the new run-first philosophy) 5(142)-JACOBY GLENN, CB, 169 = -27, total -14 (Great hands, good anticipation, great drive on the ball) 6(182)- , ILB, 195 = -17, total -31 (Tackling machine. Good gap discipline. Leader. Great motor.) So we lose a 5th rounder, and I couldn't care less. That would be an outstanding draft. I'd like a FS, but none really seem to fall where the Bears pick & I don't want to reach.

Two I really like: Landon Collins, S, Alabama - I think he's taken a hit lately, but he's by far the best S in the class. I also think he could play FS or SS. Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Mizzou - I just feel like he's the same type of player as Randy Moss, who I wanted badly back in the day. He's a monster at 6'6", running a 4.4, and high-points the ball.

Agreed. I think you could take just about any mock, realistic anyway, and you'd find that there would be a built-in loss.

Interesting comparison. But, wow, their draft was stupid. No way in hell 7 WRs go in the 1st round. No way in hell. AND they had both Vic Beasley and Landon Collins falling into the second round. That would be insane. But let's say that did happen. Holy hell, I would faint if the Bears started off with Amari Cooper and Landon Collins. That would be amazing.

Interesting concept. I hadn't thought of it that way. Of course, the one huge flaw is what we're discussing in regards to the concept of BPA, need-based drafting, and value-based drafting. If there is a glaring hole somewhere, it's likely there will be a "reach" pick according to the big board, and your metrics will yield a negative. Still, interesting thought.

How exactly are you doing this?