jason
-
Posts
8,650 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Calendar
Posts posted by jason
-
-
6 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:
Unless you find a Brock Purdy or Tom Brady.
That’s just a bonus. If you can find studs later than the second round then it’s the cherry on top.
-
2 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:
PFF Data (I get it - PFF) - Sorted for Fields:
Starting on Right Side:
Basically - both our QB and Oline are pretty-bad. So Non-QB pressure we rate poorly, but he is also really poor and creates his own "pressure". Basically 7th worse in the league (is where Fields is) where as the oline is 9th worse. yet the % that is OL responsibility is very favorable (how does that add up with being really bad at Non QB pressures). The bright side is our LG (Jenkins) and RT (Wright) are good...the LT and RG are mediocre and center is bad (passes my eye test). The % other responsibility is pretty massive - does that mean our RB's are terrible blockers or is that like not being set-up appropriately?
Looking at the Left:
Fields is good at maximizing time on the scramble - the next question is how effective is he actually making plays on the scramble (relative to expectation). Clearly in side the pocket he is bad and this also highlights he does not throw into tight coverage. On one hand - that should be good - fewer picks, downfall is, to win in this league you got to throw guys open and have conviction making tight window throws. Fields clearly doesn't have it. And from an expected completion percentage - he flat out executes poorly. Ranking 45th of QB's which is clearly AWFUL.
Overall: I won't pretend to understand these metrics and have plenty of questions as outlined above. But most of this data backs my eye test and tells me Fields just isn't a good QB (when I say QB - I'm not saying scrambler and athlete), I am saying good QB. Those things are nice - but 3 years in the league and the things that differentiate you most as a QB he is poor at. It is pretty evident in my mind Bears are headed down a path where they are taking a QB with one of their 1st picks.
Noting the PFF source is worth triple highlighting. Their stats are steaming dumpster juice as we all have discussed numerous times. I didn't even want to quote reply and leave their data in there.
My eye test says the OL isn't very good and the Bears only have one quality WR on the roster.
Having said that, I honestly think the stats are deceiving for Fields. It seems like every other play one of the linemen take their turn sucking and letting a guy fly right through. So, that probably makes the Fields stats amplified towards the negative because he's never comfortable. And when they're not rotating being horrible, the pocket collapses faster that that submersible that went to visit the Titanic. (too soon?)
Do I think Fields is Peyton Manning? But I think he's a top-10 QB if the Bears ever sorted out out how to protect him, game plan to take advantage of his strengths, and have NFL-caliber talent to catch the ball.
-
20 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:
for sure on keeping Justin last year - it would have been stupid not to. we needed to see who he was, how he could grow. you cant just walk away from that kind of athletic talent without at least seeing him with something around him. Now this year, thats a different story. But who is the right rookie? Who the heck knows. Maybe the best one this year will end up to be Mccarthy in the second round, or maybe its Williams at #1 etc. My crystal ball is entirely cloudy.
And that's kind of the point. Nobody has the clear crystal ball. Even Bill Polian said the draft is at best 50/50. That's why I'm a huge advocate of trading down just about every year.
Before I say this, I know it's not technically how the math works out, but...
If the success rate of a first round pick is 35%, and a second round pick is 20%, I'd rather go with two of the second round guys. The second round guys are less likely to turn into HoF players as some other number crunching has shown in the past, but a team full of 2nd round players is more likely a complete team compared to a team that has players littered from 1st through UDFA.
-
10 hours ago, TravD said:
If he get's Caleb Williams, that was a hell of a Deal. He knows what he is looking at going into the draft. If he doesn't he messed up hard on Stroud and Williams. He failed with Stroud and Williams if he doesn't go that way. I was watching a thing earlier, someone asked Polian back in the day what it would take to get Manning after he got him. He said more than 10 1st rounders. Hitting on a QB covers up so many positions, and having one like Fields you have to invest into so many positions to cover him up.
I argue he did not fail with Stroud. No way he could have selected another QB last year.
-
The most shocking thing today was to find out the Bears had a QB Coach.
-
3 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:
OC, Arthur Smith:
Smith as the OC did really well in Tennessee. Beat the Ravens in the playoffs with Ryan Tannehill at QB. Atlanta never got anywhere with him, but the QB situation was dismal.
DC, Ron Rivera:
Rivera's last DC lead him to be HC at Carolina and Washington. Both teams had good defenses, with offenses that couldn't get them over the hump. His defense got us to our last Superbowl. I think we win that game if Tommie Harris didn't tear his hamstring off the bone. Following year, Lovie let him leave and said, "trust me" and our D was never the same. Rivera is a little more aggressive than Flus
Bingo. Rivera would be my choice as DC.
As for OC, I just want someone opposite of journeyman Getsy, whose resume is not that impressive.
WR Coach, Offense QC, WR Coach, OC, QB Coach (w/ Rodgers as QB), and then hired by Bears.I want someone who has a proven track record of offensive success, preferably at multiple locations with multiple sets of players. My dark horse selection is Ryan Grubb from Washington. Dude is a stud. Everywhere he goes there is offensive success. A huge reason Washington went from "who?" to the National Championship game.
Washington
2022-23: Offensive Coordinator/Quarterbacks
Fresno State
2020-21: Offensive Coordinator/Assoc. Head Coach/Quarterbacks
2019: Offensive Coordinator/Assoc. Head Coach/Offensive Line
2017-18: Offensive Line/Run Game Coordinator
Eastern Michigan
2014-16: Offensive Line
Sioux Falls
2010-13: Offensive Coordinator/Quarterbacks
2007-09: Offensive Line/Run Game Coordinator
South Dakota State
2006: Wide Receivers
2005: Running Backs -
1 hour ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:
Wasn’t arguing - more stating - Love isn’t tier 1 and Fields is worse. Why we would build around Justin when we have multiple assets to improve the position puzzles me (not saying you are saying that - just my 2 cents).
I personally am still in the camp - if we go with a new qb, we need to bring in a new coach. Unless they go sign Cousins or something like that. Oh and I’m not saying the qb has to be at 1-1, maybe they do it at 1-3 or wherever. And I’m still fine with drafting an early one and sticking with Fields and making them earn it (probably better for that to be a 2nd rounder though if they go that route).
Correct. Love is not tier 1. But look how dangerous even a second tier qb can be in the NFL when given a ton of time to throw. They don’t get to the NFL on looks. Give any of them enough time and they light up defenses.
-
36 minutes ago, Pixote said:
No way would I trade Fields for less than a mid to high 2nd. Keep him, play him while a drafted QB gets his feet under him carrying a clip board on the sidelines. Hopefully he can increase his value going forward. But I'm tired of the Bears practically giving away players and seeming to never get a good return. Just my opinion.
As far as today, it proved to me one thing. We need the draft and free agency to improve that OL. Yes, I know some of the sacks in the past were on Fields but come on. The number of sacks over the last three years is alarming. It's a wonder he isn't suffering from PTSD. Today he was sacked 5 times and pressured constantly. GB players where in his face the entire game.
I can understand everyone being down on the guy. But it was brutal. He was lucky to be able to walk to the locker room without assistance. Even the refs didn't help with another no-call on a blatant personal foul. The league needs to cleanup the quality of the refs.
Preach. Same thing that ruined Cutler. Even a tough guy in the NFL starts to hear alarms more and more quickly when constantly hammered or pushed by dudes the size of gorillas. Confidence goes away. Failing confidence is then the anchor on the footwork boat. After that it’s just a matter of self-preservation.
-
I still don’t think Fields is the primary problem. Coaching is horrendous. And the OL never let him get comfortable. Maybe once or twice all game he got to make a 5 or 7 step drop and work progressions.
-
3 hours ago, adam said:
Things to watch today:
- DJ Moore needs 11 receptions to move into sole possession of 2nd place in franchise history for a single season with 103.
- DJ Moore needs 122 receiving yards to move into sole possession of 2nd place in franchise history for a single season with 1,422.
- Cairo Santos needs 2 FGs to become the single season franchise leader with 34 (1 ties him with Gould for the lead).
- TJ Edwards needs 9 total tackles to move into 3rd for solo tackles in a single season with 154 (8 ties Urlacher for 3rd)
- TJ Edwards needs 12 solo tackles to move into 10th for solo tackles in a single season with 96.
- Tyrique Stevenson needs 3 PD to move into 4th place for PDs in a single season with 18 (he would pass Tillman, Jackson, and Vasher).
- Justin Fields only needs 274 rushing yards to become the Bears all-time franchise leader for rushing yards as a QB.
- Justin Fields only needs 1,475 passing yards and 13 TDs to break the Bears all-time franchise records for a single season.
I think he might come up a bit short.
-
On 1/2/2024 at 8:11 PM, Pixote said:
I watched ESPN today, with a panel discussing NFL topics. Two things took me by surprise.
It was the first time I had ever heard so much praise for Justin Fields. I couldn't believe what I was hearing after everyone including their mommas were constantly dissing him for three years. One analyst (Marcus Spears) said that if for some reason the Bears traded him to a team that was a "good fit," Fields has the tools to be a super star. (We need to address the OL again and get some more targets for him instead of trading him for a 2nd or 3rd round pick! He can be the next "Bears" Super Star 😉 )
Second, they showed some stats on Philadelphia. God, their defense sucks! They are at the bottom of the league. Many categories they were bottom 3. They actually ranked the second worse team generating pressure on the QB, only achieving pressure 16%.
That led me to look at the stats for Carter, the "generational" can't miss player we passed on. The dude only has 6 sacks and 18 solo tackles. LOL. Shows you how the term generational when describing a draft prospect can be misleading.
Be careful with that logic. If their defense sucks, it's likely pulling any good players down with it. Could be Carter, or maybe not. But if the Bears have shown us anything over the course of the last 30 years, it's that a very good player can come to a horrible situation and look much worse. We've seen it over and over again.
-
On 1/2/2024 at 4:09 PM, Alaskan Grizzly said:
This right here is the cement on the issue. No way they piss off DJ and the rest of the locker room. Fields is staying.
-
Hell yeah. I love it except Rattler. That dude is a Grade A dirt-bag.
Using those same picks, I'd go with this:
- 3. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State - Perfect fit.
- 10. Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State - Stud OT for years to come.
- 44. Pe(Nix), QB, Washington/Oregon - Whichever is there. I'd rather it be Nix since I officiated some of his games in HS.
- 68. Sedrick Van Pran, C, Georgia - Solid all around, quick feet.
- 76. Blake Corum, RB, Michigan - I don't care if he's short. He ripped Alabama apart, and that jump cut was incredible.
- 79. Xavier Truss, G, Georgia - Back to back UGA OL.
- 81. Brevyn Spann-Ford, TE, Minnesota - Some might think this is too high, but I love this guy. I swear I was watching blurry eyed and thought he ran similarly to Gronk.
- 107. Zak Zinter, G, Michigan - I'd like the Bears to take a flyer on a guy who broke his leg at the end of the year. Day 2 floor, Day 1 upside if he comes back from injury.
-
**BONUS** - I wouldn't mind a small trade to pick up a "meaningless" 7th rounder or two.
- 7th Round - Isaiah Davis, RB, South Dakota State - If you watched the FCS Championship, you understand.
-
Serious question. The idea here is if the Bears decide to go all-in offensively. What do they need to be a top unit?
-
5 hours ago, adam said:
If the Bears traded down intending to get MHJ and someone jumped them to get him, I would expect Poles to try to trade down again. Let someone else come up to get a QB, then go wild, grab a WR (Odunze), DL (Newton), and TE (Bowers) with additional draft capital.
What is so crazy is the Bears are starting with 2x first rounders and 0 second rounders, but any trade in the first is going to net a future 1st and probably a current 2nd. So if you trade down a second time (so 1 to 3, then 3 to 10), you could add ANOTHER 1st rounder in 2025 (that would be 3), and a 2nd 2nd rounder in 2024 while still have two picks in the top 12 (5 picks in top 75). Then have 3x 1st rounders and 2x 2nd rounders in 2025. MADNESS.And if all goes well, it works perfectly as the peak year. 2024 should see Fields have his best season yet, get re-signed, DJ and new offensive weapons gel, the defense gets even better, and the Bears make the playoffs. Then 2025 is the make it or break it year, where the Bears fill one or two holes by drafting blue chips and/or trading for a mega-FA.
-
On 12/31/2023 at 10:02 AM, Stinger226 said:
As people look as this team as bad, we're not that team anymore. If we win the last 2 games we will be 6-2 in the last 8 games. We aren't the losers of 0-4 start anymore.
Poles thinks we can win now, unless he drafts Joe Burrows ( who is that), why would he draft a QB that could take 3 yrs to be good? Fields was a pick 11. He expects us to win now. Actually with Fields we could 6-2 right now. You add more blue chip players, you're only going to enhance whoever the QB is worth. He's going to get a haul like last year, still draft a prospect at QB to develop, and win now. This makes the most sense looking at it from Poles perspective. Just think if he gets to trade back twice with in the top 5 picks. I can't even fathom the haul he gets.
Excellent point. Why would Poles want to start over on something he’s been carefully building?
He should trade the #1. And again if necessary. Load up on picks, get talent everywhere, increase the odds of someone panning out, and build a total team.
-
On 11/12/2023 at 10:10 PM, Alaskan Grizzly said:
I saw a video earlier that read something about how Williams would be a better QB because of all the plays he makes in college. Problem was the video they were using were highlight videos of Justin in his OSU days.
One thing I go back to time and again is looking at Justin’s collegiate record . He was something like 22-2 overall with a 5-1 (I think) record against SEC teams. He made the playoffs in each of his last two seasons and played damn good in those games against other top NATIONALLY ranked teams.
From what I’ve seen is Williams withers on the vibe when he plays against top 10 teams and Maye aside from having one more “starting” season at UNC, all I can think is Trubisky 2.0.
That's one of the primary reasons I want to stick with Fields. When he has a competent team around him, maybe even a good team, he excels. And he it against some of the best teams in the NCAA, as you mentioned.
Meanwhile, Caleb Williams has elite talent all around him, and he struggles in the garbage-ass PAC12, a conference that's imploding before our eyes.
When Fields has nobody threatening at RB, a single WR that can get open, and OLinemen taking turns impersonating turn-styles, how in the world can the dude consistently be good?
Stick with Fields, trade the #1 for a haul, build the team. Makes the most sense. Drafting a QB #1 and then giving him the same, flawed options Fields has is a recipe for disaster that will set the franchise back another 4-5 years. Again.
-
On 12/29/2023 at 5:11 PM, adam said:
If you are going for a rookie QB in 2024, you have to keep #1 for the QB and get a WR with the Bears pick, then hope you can trade Fields for a 2nd to address one of the other spots not filled in FA: Edge/DL/TE/C/S
Disagree. If they get that massive haul from Washington, you could do something like this:
- 3 - MHJr, WR, OSU
- 9 - Olu, OT, PSU
- 35 - Penix or Nix, QB
That would be great. Gives Fields one superstar weapon, one elite blocker, who together should reshape the offense. Meanwhile Pe(Nix) sits for a year and matures. If Fields pans out, great. If not, hand the reigns to Pe(Nix) and draft another Day 2 QB in 2025 for insurance.
-
On 12/28/2023 at 9:28 AM, adam said:
5. NYJ - Currently #9 - This would cost a 2025 1st, 2026 1st, and a 2nd 2025.
This is the most intriguing answer to me. Could give the Bears back-to-back picks in the first round.
-
1 minute ago, ChileBear said:
Agreed. Williams is a prima donna and I want us to get a king's ransom for the no. 1. There are other QBs in this draft that can sit behind Fields while Poles builds a balanced, deep team.
And that doesn't even include the ridiculous thing where he wants part ownership.
-
2 hours ago, adam said:
Reading the tea leaves, I assume this means they are trading the #1 pick and not taking a QB.
Hopefully.
-
5 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:
I put this on another thread just now too. PFF is random. They told us Charles Leno was the best OT in the league, while we watched him be a turnstyle every week.
A lot of times Leno was just plain blocking thew wrong guy. So if the guard and Leno each have a defender in front of them, and the the guard takes his guy, and Leno doubles the guard's guy and leaves his own assignement completely unblocked, and that guy comes in and destroys the QB thats a positive grade on Leno because they guy he made contact with wasnt the one getting the sack. In fact its probably a + play because the doubled defender didnt sniff the QB. Good job Leno!
PFF is a total joke. They are random.Thank you for doing what I was going to do. Every week for multiple years people on here and other forums would use PFF grades as gospel, all the while they were grading Leno as anything more than steaming dog shit. PFF grades are meaningless.
-
All I will say is that I absolutely, 100% do not want Caleb Williams. He's a prima donna punk and horrible for the locker room. It would be like when the Bears unnecessarily drafted Cedric Benson when they had Thomas Jones, and the entire locker room hated it. Internal mutiny.
He skipped the bowl game. Lacks mental toughness. Apparently his teammates don't like him. Not a good leader, or the Trojans would have been better.
Great arm talent. Bad intangibles. Pass. Aside from that, trading the #1 is much better for the Bears because they need more than one rookie to take a leap.
-
2 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:
mostly inconsistent because they are good on the first drive or two in every game - the scripted plays. other than that, it's generally awful, .interspersed with amazing highlight hero ball plays and no read plays like rollouts and screens with pre-programmed reads.
Is that a condemnation of the OC's inability to call advantageous plays real-time, the QBs inability to read defenses at an NFL level, or both?
The answer to the question is likely known in Halas Hall, and will probably determine what they do in the draft.
F%$#Ck The NFL
in Bearstalk
Posted
This thread is one of the primary reasons why I’ve limited my games to just one or two a year for the last several years.