jason
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Posts posted by jason
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On 1/9/2023 at 5:06 PM, Stinger226 said:
Where there could be a problem, it 2 or 3 QBs emerge as good and different teams want different QBs Everyone knows the Bears ain't drafting a QB. So that could screw up the trade scenarios.
I see what you're saying, but I think FOMO kicks in at that point. Teams who want Player X would be worried that another team has that same QB as #1 above all others, and terrified a rival would attempt to trade in front of them to steal their guy.
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On 1/10/2023 at 1:44 PM, adam said:
So don't pay an off ball LB $20M a year for the next 5 years?
BINGO!!!!!!!!!!!😆😆😆😆
That's such a horrible contract. If you compare what he did/does to Sanborn or a dozen other lower round draft pick LBs, there is a difference, but not a difference that makes such a contract remotely acceptable.
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16 minutes ago, AZ54 said:
LMAO.... I see HC calls GM and tells him to prioritize getting some guys who can pass block.
Any properly functioning franchise has the GM and HC tied at the hip. They should have very similar philosophical approaches to team building. If a GM provides the picks and the HC chooses to play clock-control-offense, then the HC isn't doing his job.
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6 hours ago, adam said:
That dude has gotten a raw deal ever since the Bears fired him after going 10-6. He has been the scapegoat every time.
The Bears need to bring him on as an Associate Head Coach or something like that.He wasn't the scapegoat. He was the source of most problems. He was horrible at game management, horrible at clock management, ignored offense, ignored offensive line even more, subpar at drafting (we all know he was involved), thought he was smarter defensively compared to his DC, made nearly no game time adjustments, and only succeeded because he walked into a defensive roster that had a perfect-fit-once-a-generation-talent HOF'er (Urlacher) playing alongside another defensive stud who is a fringe HOF candidates (Briggs) and a uniquely skilled DB (Tillman) perfectly suited for the bend-don't-break-emphasize-turnover philosophy.
And if it weren't for the fluky 2006 season (Devin Hester selection & 5 return TDs, the "crown their ass"-game, etc.) then Lovie likely would have been fired even earlier.
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3 hours ago, adam said:
That would be the ultimate move, from 1 to 2, then 2 to 4. However, IND could also stay at #4 if they think ARZ is going to pass on a QB. Outside of DET, not many teams outside the top 5 will have the ammo to move to 1 or 2.
If that happens, someone call my wife and tell her to take me to cardiology.
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21 hours ago, AZ54 said:
Jason I'm glad to have known you long enough to see your dream of a tanking team come true. Now let's hope we have the right GM to exploit the situation.
😄 Likewise. It finally happened. Although, that's only part of my dream:
- Tankathon
- GM trades down and stockpiles picks like the '90s Cowboys
- GM drafts 99% from dominant programs in major conferences (i.e. no Trubisky types)
- GM focuses draft/FA strategy on OL/DL. The cornerstone of the team. It's time to pick/acquire these positions until there are zero holes.
- GM deprioritizes LB & RB in draft. Those dudes can be found later way more often. **Cough** Kwiatkowski **Cough** Sanborn
- GM tells HC to join the 21st Century and prioritize passing & pass blocking. I love watching Fields take off, but I'd rather see him around for 15 years throwing for 4K a year.
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On 1/6/2023 at 10:12 AM, Connorbear said:
What are your thoughts on Skoronski?
Peace
I like him a lot, but all the whispers about being better suited for OG (i.e. short arms) worry me. I'd honestly rather pass on him, get more picks, and get Paris Johnson.
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I hate the idea of giving up on yet another TE. And, yes, I'm including Shaheen; that cat never even got a real chance...just thrown into a messy mix.
Kmet is doing very well.
Drafting another TE to actually compete would be counter-productive in several ways.
- It's not remotely a need. This roster is barren, and y'all want to draft a TE because Kmet is not producing like Gronk, even though the Bears have the worst passing offense in the NFL?
- Kmet is not underperforming; he just lacks targets. Kmet got about 80 targets each of the last two years, and Kelce averaged about 140 targets each of the last six years. Bump Kmet's targets and stomp into top 5 TE in the league territory.
- Kmet is better than you think. Of the top ten TEs by targets, he is third in catch percentage (.724) behind Engram (.744) and Njoku (.725).
- It would take reps away from Kmet who is building familiarity and cohesion with the franchise QB.
- It would insert a rookie into the mix to "figure things out" (see Shaheen's entire career)
- It creates a multi-headed TE scenario which almost never works other than Gronk and Hernandez (see the last ten years of Chicago Bears football trying out multiple headed monster TE scenarios. Y'all remember Evan Rodriguez?)
- It wastes draft capital on a team in desperate need of just about every other position.
Just say no to drafting another TE.
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On 1/7/2023 at 2:56 PM, ASHKUM BEAR said:
I would say the Bears can trade down to pick 8 or 10 and gain much more than they lose.
Trade 1 -pick 2 for pick 4, 18, & 2024 1st.
Trade 2-pick 4 for pick 8, 39, & 2024 1st
Big picks - Tyree Wilson DE, Paris Johnson LT, Calijah Kancey 3T, Garvin Dexter 5T, John Micheal Schmitz C.
I regret missing a good WR around 65-70 range. But 2024, we are not missing out on Harrison
The rest are depth/competition Van Pran is G/C depth.
Love the trades, but don’t love the draft. That’s 100% the strategy that should be used.
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15 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:
We could trade back and still get a top 5 pick. Lovie must still be a bears fan.
And then trade back again and stay mid first round. If this hand is played correctly, it could be franchise changing.
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That was the best thing Lovie Smith has ever done for the Chicago Bears! 😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣
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10 hours ago, adam said:
Here is my 5 round mock. I figured the Bears would work nicely with Pace in Atlanta, get #7, #38, #102 + a 2024 1st and 3rd for #2. Then trade back a few in the 2nd to pick up a couple extra 5ths. End up with an extra 2024 1st, 3rd, and 5th with 6 picks in the top 102 + Brown and Tillman in the 5th.I don't like any mock that ignores OT and/or OG. There absolutely, positively has to be more OL focus if the Bears are going to protect their franchise player.
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19 hours ago, Stinger226 said:
If Poles first draft is any indication, he turned 6 picks into. 11. In this draft you have 2 of the first 3 are OL , don't see that happening. 1 WR, 1 DL and 1 OL. In what ever order.
While he was in KC he brought in a 2 nd rounder and 6 th to now considered one of the better OLs in football. He thinks he can build a line that doesn't need all first rounders. B Jones is an example of that, he thinks he's the future LT.
I don't see him drafting a LB in the 4 th either, he found Sanborn as a UDFA.
Maybe he was lucky or maybe he's smart.
If Poles were smart, he'd use 2 of the first 3 on OL. There is nothing more important in this franchise than Justin Fields. He needs to be protected at all costs.
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32 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:
So as he is building this roster, you're against winning along the way up? Poles has already stated he's not going to take on bloated contracts to try to get an extra win or two. If you go by what he did this year, it's a template for his regime. He will get one or two big signing and do what he did this year, short term deals with the ability to bail next year. People will complain he's not spending enough money because we have so much. That is why he's not bringing in Hopkins or Adams, those are bloated contracts that will be bad for a team the last couple of years.He will throw money at a young guy like DeRon Payne that will be 26 next year. Or trade for a Higgins or Jeury that are still young.
I'm not against winning, obviously. I'm opposed to a team that's perpetually around .500. I just think this team is too far away to use one draft, even if there are a few really good FAs. This team needs two drafts with early picks, or some amazing trade down scenarios this year that stockpile picks. Otherwise, there is just enough improvement to become mediocre and get a default draft pick in the mid-teens.
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This team sucks in multiple areas, but has enough talent to surprise opponents. Several games were close. A few breaks here or there and this team is easily around .500.
However, being around .500 every year is eventually what got Lovie fired. Nobody wants that again. So, the team needs to pull off a Herschel Walker trade IMO. But how much is too much?
On the PFF Draft Simulator, I got the following:
- #2 for Detroit's #4, #18, #49 (2nd)
- #4 for Pittsburgh's #13, #33 (2nd), and a 2024 RD2 pick
- #13 for NYJet's #17, #48 (2nd)
That's two 1st round picks and a whopping four 2nd round picks, not to mention the extra pick in 2024.
This is the draft I ended up with even though I spent very little time analyzing. After looking at the possibilities and the players available, I want the Bears to trade down 2-3 times into the middle of the first and stock-pile picks. There are 7-8 starters in this bunch.
1:17-Paris Johnson, T, OSU - Suddenly Justin Fields' best friend
1:18-Jordan Addison, WR, USC - Prototypical slot burner
2:33-O'Cyrus Torrence, G, UF - Many say he's the top G; starts immediately
2:48-Will McDonald, DE, ISU - Very sudden, great energy
2:49-Mike Morris, DE, UM - Boom/Bust
2:56-Gervon Dexter, DT, UF - Slow off the snap, but basically an anchor
3:65-Bo Nix, QB, OU - Firm believer in QB every year, and Nix has pedigree/upside
4:97-Daiyan Henley, LB, WSU - I really like this guy. Versatile, inside or outside IMO
5:129-Olusegun Oluwatimi, C, UM - Cool name; Outland/Rimington Trophy winner
5:143-Henry To'o To'o, LB, UA - Sort of shocked he was here; this is suspect (huge steal obv)
6:161-Deuce Vaugh, HB, KSU - Dude is explosive, regardless of size
6:181-Starling Thomas, CB, UAB - BPA and a CB to boot
7:193-Ryan Greenhagen, LB, Fordham - My favorite sleeper of the draft, had 30 tackls against Nebraska. -
On 1/3/2023 at 8:57 PM, BearFan PHX said:
we are going to be MUCH better next year, but I hope they take the long view on everything. I dont want to lose a single playoff game, and then pat ourselves on the back as we slide back into the slime. I want to build a sustainable program, where we arent in the "we better do it this year" mode, so that we can be in the hunt every year.
We are going to be good next year, and the superbowl window opens in 2024. Is it possible they will get there early? It is! But that shouldnt be the design if any decision has a short term upside vs a long term one.Bingo. Upgrading the team enough to perpetually be 9-7 or 10-6 with a 1st / 2nd round playoff exit is short-sighted. The Bears need a lot more players than just one or two. It's time to play chess instead of checkers and think a few moves ahead.
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Answering other than "TRADE DOWN" is insanity, especially after watching the Lions dismantle the Bears.
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I don't think HOF status relates to that series necessarily. If someone has an interesting story, then that's all that matters. Edelman is 5-foot-nothing, looks like the least intimidating guy to ever lace up cleats, played QB at a community college before playing QB at Kent State, and proceeded to absolutely take wet, corn shits on NFL DBs for 6-7 years of a 10+ year career as a receiver.
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As always, for the past 30 years or so, this franchise ignores the OL. They think a bunch of Sam Mustiphers are good enough as long as a few talent positions are good. Wrong. Wrong as it has been for decades. And this year there is the added bonus of no DL either.
Trade down from the #1/#2.
Trade down again. The one player are #5 or #10 isn’t enough.
Stockpile picks. A bunch of 2nd and 3rd rounders would be great after a late 1st rounder.
Draft OL, DL, and WR over and over again.
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I was at the game. Takeaways:
1. Fields is exciting. It feels like when Hester used to get the ball. The stadium gets energized.
2. Fields missed seeing multiple open receivers. Either he is still struggling with reading defenses, or they were further down the line of progressions.
3. Holy crap is this DL bad. Most GB games I’m convinced they get away with a ton of holds, but they really didn’t need to today. Still saw a few that should have been holds, but primarily the DL had no prayer.
4 Montgomery is still one of the most underrated RBs in the league. He’s making chicken salad out of chickensh*t. OL still a need.
5. The Bears have the #2 pick, and now more than ever I think they need to trade down. This game was near perfect: basically won the whole game, should have, then lost. The Bears need so many positions, and trading back to hopefully pick up another 2nd and more could be huge since the team needs are essentially everything except QB and 2-3 other spots.
**Love Sanborn. He was involved in everything.
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Several times during the Lovie years, we saw pointless wins that allowed the team to misleading hope, while simultaneously submarining any chance of stockpiling draft capital that helps build franchises. The team has hovered around .500 year after year since 2000. Since 2000, believe it or not, the team has an average of 7.9 wins per season. Of the 22 seasons, 12 have been +/- 2 wins of .500. That's treading water; it's not building a franchise. For 30+ years I have heard about how the meaningless wins help in some way, whether it be cohesion, camaraderie, or confidence. But for the Bears, that doesn't appear to hold true.
That's why I think this year is so perfect. The team is deceptively better than their record and stats show. They are hanging in games, showing true offensive spark, and all the while losing. Theoretically, this should bear fruit and build the franchise, which is a refreshing angle the Bears really haven't shown for 20+ years. It's also probably creating a desire in players, because they realize they are closer than others believe.
Side note: There have been a few anomalies during the last 22 years.
- 2002: A 4-12 season gave the Bears the 4th pick, and they traded back to pick Michael Haynes🤢 and Rex Grossman😑. Ignore that many others called for a WR or OL for Shoop's horrible offense. Hey, at least the Bears got Tillman🥜 and Briggs.
- 2005: The team was starting to turn into a monster because of a collection of defensive talent. Looking back, we didn't realize what we had. Urlacher, Briggs, Tillman, Brown, Harris, Hillenmeyer, Vasher, Ogunleye. Wow!😲
- 2006: That collection of players all fit together to build a historic defense, and a wild card pick in Devin Hester turned into the best returner ever🐐. Truly magical season, but misleading because absolutely everything went right that season, and collapsed afterwards (i.e. 7-9, 9-7, 7-9).
- 2010: The Julius Peppers boost🙄. His signing was thought to be the difference maker, and there was new life on defense. Then that NFC Championship game against GB took our soul.
- 2018: Nearly a 2006 repeat in terms of magic. We all knew it was a fluke because of Nagy's flaws, but it was an incredible ride. The Khalil Mack trade! Roquan Smith was a great pick. Eddie Goldman played 16 games for the only time of his career. Prince Amukamara played arguably the best season of his career. Kyle Fuller and Eddie Jackson had 7 INTs & 6 INTs, respectively, and the only All Pro seasons of their career. Again, unsustainable fortune like 2006.
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6 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:
I've had an idea circling through my brain for a couple of years now, but really haven't had the balls to let it out until now.
As we know, the NFL is ever evolving. It's current evolution is quarterback centric. It shows with wins and loses and also at the bank. Through this evolution, I'm seeing something new. The run game.
What if The Chicago Bears focus all of their offensive resources to assemble a running attack that no defense is equipped to stop? We already see the Eagles, Titans, Ravens, Browns, Falcons and Bears grinding teams down and winning the 4th quarter. What if we take it a step further?
There's an entire scrap pile of talented players that were labelled as tweeners. Can't pass block, ten pounds light to play DT. We could assemble a team where all five OL are run blocking maulers that are big fast and nasty. They prominent position of the OL would now be the center because calling the blocking scheme would the key. Next, the inline TE and FB would be 290# freak athletes who would be more physical than the average of the position. We already have great blocking receivers, so let's look at it.
Remember the Dallas Cowboys OL and how they made Emmitt Smith the record holder? There isn't a Bears fan on earth that hasn't said, "if Payton wouldn't had that OL...". Just think if that OL were all the best run blockers? Another aspect is that you could build your line deeper because you aren't looking for LT or RT traits. Straight mauler baby. Modern defenses aren't equipped for this. It's all light and fast to prevent the pass and get to the QB. Overwhelming force from the front would be unstoppable.
Of course, your focus positions have changed back to the running backs. Remember the teams mentioned above? They all have one thing in common, no elite passer. Lamar Jackson has already paved most of the the way, but he gets shut down in the playoffs. Same with Derrick Henry. Why? It's because defenses can take the run away easier than they can take the passing game. It's due to scheme and personnel though. E=MCsq is a scientific fact when applied properly. We have the ultimate QB to make it work. I think teams would dread the physical beating they would receive from week to week. Another plus is that it would all be no huddle. Grind em down, then hit em with a surprise pass play. They would have to call timeout just to substitute and breathe.
Anyway, that was fun to get off my chest. I know it would not be sustainable past a year or two because defenses would adapt to play it, but it would be fun to watch them try. The funny thing is that our team has the base in place to do this next year.
Somebody please talk some sense into me and prove how this would not work, so I can get it out of my head.
Seriously, poke holes in it...
I'm a huge fan. There is a little HS team in AL called Fyffe that's been crushing teams for years by running the Double Wing.
The offense comes from Tim Murphy, who is a legend in many ways.
It may not 100% translate to the NFL because of player speed, but I think there are too many prima donna, soft tackling players in the NFL more concerned with trying to punch the ball or strip it versus plugging a hole 75 times a game just in case the back that slams into that hole every play has the ball.
https://www.al.com/sports/2018/12/forget-the-fun-n-gun-fyffe-wins-with-fun-to-run-offense.html
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So essentially the Bears traded Roquan for Claypool, and got a 5th round kicker. I feel like overall that’s a loss because I feel like Claypool is good (not great) and Roquan is elite.
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On 10/26/2022 at 12:20 PM, AZ54 said:
I've been scanning some draft boards and there are no obvious FA or draft options at Center. Unless there is a surprise cut of a vet, Poles is going to have to dig deep to find somebody.
Eiselen looked ok in the preseason but still got walked around a bit (poor leverage) at times. I wonder if he'll get more comfortable with more practice but most likely that's an option next year. Physically blocking I don't think he's worse than Mustipher but the mental side with calls and assignments is a different story.
That's one of the several reasons why it makes so much sense to trade back. Especially this year.
THE CHICAGO BEARS HAVE THE #1 PICK
in Bearstalk
Posted
Notice I never said his players didn't love him. They did. I think Lovie is likely a great man, in terms of fellowship, and he's able to get players to buy into his program. But it's a helluva lot easier to do when you walk into a ready-made defense with Urlacher, Briggs, Tillman and several other solid players.