jason
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Posts posted by jason
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8 hours ago, adam said:
The grading systems are so tough, especially if you are looking back at the totality of the season, and not on a snap by snap basis.
What is hard to provide context to: if one OL fails on a play and it counts as a hurry/hit/sack, it obviously impacts his grade AND the play. If two or more OL fail on a play and it only sometimes counts as a hurry/hit/sack, the grading gets out of whack.
If you use PFF, Fields was the most pressured QB in the NFL last year at 48.9%, no other QB with over 400 drop backs was over 45%. Zach Wilson was 2nd at 43.1%.
Now you have to apply some context to that as well. Fields holds the ball longer than normal, causing some of that pressure, and some was also related to play design.
At the end of the day, both sides can be right. Fields has some self-induced pressures AND the OLine needs to improve, especially at Center.
I tell people this all the time and nobody ever recalls how bad the OL has been. The problem is with PFF stats it can be incredibly misleading. Four linemen doing well on each play still results in pressure.
Play 1-LT fails
Play 2-LG fails
Play 3-C fails
Play 4-RG fails
Play 5-RT fails
That results on four linemen grading out at 80%, but a QB who faces 100% pressure rate. Especially last year, that’s how it felt watching Fields.
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On 2/22/2024 at 7:35 PM, BearFan PHX said:
2) He mentioned that the Jennifer King was a 7 time All American in tackle football. She played 12 seasons as QB and WR in the womens league on the Carolina Phoenix. Cool. That assuages my worries earlier. If shes a dynamic competitor with experience playing professional football, then I feel differently about what I said earlier.
She held the same position "assistant running backs coach" for the Washington Commander the past three years.
She also coached at the Senior Bowl.
Honestly, I didn't know there really was a womens pro tackle football league other than some gimmick ones like the lingerie league. And some of those girls are freakin intense too, but playing in lingerie makes me take it less seriously LOL
But anyway, she seems qualified AND experienced.
FYI-Don’t let any of that fool you.
I’ve reffed 4 different “pro” women’s leagues, with teams stretching the entire southeast, and they’re all virtually the same. The level of play is atrocious. The athleticism is nearly nonexistent. It’s like a bad high school varsity team strictly because of the player size. I could give you dozens of examples, but it’s definitely not as legit as playing in high level varsity, let alone NCAA.
A few examples:
1. A team traveled 10+ hours and forgot their pads in the “other truck.”
2. A team quit mid-3rd Qtr with injuries piling up and because one player said “we got jobs tomorrow.”
3. Team owner was also coach and RB. In other words, she footed the bill. In little league this is called “Daddy Ball.”
4. Nearly every player for one team, including “skill” positions, had a visible beer gut, or post pregnancy weight lingering. 5. I told two coaches at half of one game that if they wanted the game to continue with refs, they’d relay to their entire team that we are tired of hearing they’re uninformed complaining. They were absolutely clueless about the rules and never shut up.I could go on and on. I can’t speak about the time with the Commanders, but all women’s pro league resume building is like listing your HS job at Burger King when applying for a professional job in your 40s.
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May the best Xavier win. LOL
There would be some serious camp competition with that many new bodies. I could see a roster turnover like never seen before.
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2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:
Did you ever play football? It's important to the context.
Concur.
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Concur. I just don’t know how people actually watched the games last year and come to a different conclusion.
Ruined Cutler.
Ruined Trubisky.
Ruining Fields.
When will this franchise prioritize the OL in order to protect the franchise’s number one asset?
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4 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:
for sure. anyone who has watched teams get picked in gym knows this instinctively. It's obvious, and we agree.
But not all positions are equally important to winning championships.
That said, the weakest link on any team is an issue, and football is the ultimate team sport. So every position matters. And as I've said before, I agree with you that the offensive line is extremely important to a football team's success.
But I think you can more reliably find good offensive linemen, especially interior players, in the second round than you can reliably find championship QBs there, with the possible exception of left offensive tackle.
There is a reason that the best QBs get paid more $ than any other position by far. General Managers know this truth about the importance of the position and what a dominant one is worth.
Right defensive end is one of the most important positions on the defense, because they are the anti QB. They rush the QB to stop him from being able to throw. Their importance is a reflection of the QBs importance.
And of course then, to your point, the left offensive tackle is important because he blocks the DE who is trying to stop the QB. Again, all worth directly relative to the importance of the QB position.
Now it is also true that we have seen difference makers at every position in football history. You wouldnt normally think of safety as a position from which you can dominate the outcome of a game, but Ronnie Lott, Ed Reed and Troy Palumalu have shown otherwise. So real generational difference makers can come at any position.
But even when they do, at the height of their powers, they are not the most highly paid players in the league. That distinction always goes to a QB. And that value, expressed here as salary cap %, relates directly to effect on winning.
So if you think there's a hall of Fame QB available in the draft, you pay almost any price to get him.
And I do think the Bears roster building is far enough along to support a Caleb Williams, and I also think we will put more on the OL this offseason to make that even more true.
It isnt a true choice between a top rookie QB *OR* an offensive line. i think we can have both. And I think every metric and study shows that the top QB is the most important thing in football. Not the only important thing, but the most important.
I won’t reply individually to each point, but it really comes down to percentages and finances in my mind.
A QB at #1 means guaranteed holes elsewhere and a 50/50 coin flip success rate. It also means financially burdening the franchise with one player in such a way that virtually guarantees flaws elsewhere.
It reminds me of going to the arcade with my kids. They spend all their money on those huge games. Sometimes those games are awesome, with great game length, amazing graphics, etc. And other times they die in very short order.
Meanwhile I’m playing twice as long for a third of the money because I’m playing the classics and having a blast.
If they pick the right game, their experience is fun. IF. In general, however, my strategy provides more consistent success.
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3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:
Yes, good players are sometimes found later in the draft or free agency, and yes top picks sometimes bust, but statistically speaking, the best players generally go earlier in the draft, of course.True of all positions.
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12 hours ago, Daventry said:
That’s interesting, but the “bottom 5” idea was the commentators opinion, not a fact. There was no mention of the pressure issue, I assume you are saying that is your opinion? In my opinion, the line wasn’t great but it wasn’t horrible either, and the reason for most of JF’s issues were his poor decision making.
See above. Although…PFF ?
As for the WRs, it’s their opinion, but also difficult to argue with that.
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I’ll add this for supporting evidence. Fields had a bottom 5 receiving corp, and was pressured more than nearly every other QB in the league. Can’t properly evaluate any QB in that situation.
https://x.com/clayharbs82/status/1758697342184607896?s=46&t=TmVeSz5NqQC-GsJTz-8YiQ
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On 2/5/2024 at 12:58 PM, Mongo3451 said:
The rumors are already swirling, since Washington hired Stinksberry. We get a haul for the number one and draft our dynasty.
??????
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4 minutes ago, ChileBear said:
I just don't think Fields has the next level in him as a QB. He has skill, but another year of "improve around him and "the Fields will look better" will just be another of our franchise failures you alluded to earlier.
Certainly possible. But picking yet another first round QB and surrounding him with an incomplete roster and poorly run organization just means they swung at the same pitch the exact same way three times in a row and struck out without even attempting another approach.
I’d rather they at least try something different and build a complete team. Loading up on a first round QB almost guarantees the multiple glaring holes don’t all get filled.
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1 hour ago, ChileBear said:
So we're hopeless, why follow the Bears as your team?
Because there is hope. There is always hope. Hope that they learn from past mistakes and try a new approach.
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1 hour ago, ChileBear said:
Hold it, we've got two young and improving Tackles, cap space for free agents and draft capital. The OL will be better and I'd rather see a new QB with better skills than more of the same with Fields. And if what you say is true, then Fields was a lost cause two years ago, so why keep him longer, based on your arguement?
You hold Fields because he’s still under rookie contract and you try to fix the team around him. If they improve the OL like you suggest, then Fields will look better and the Bears will make an immediate ascension.
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1 minute ago, ChileBear said:
Trubisky, Fields, franchise history with QBs is about to change. Poles, with the Panthers' pick, hass set us up with a once-in-a-franchise opportunity. He has the first pick in a QB heavy draft, and he has the 9th pick as well. If poles thinks one of the QBs is even a smidge bit better than Fields, its a done deal and he'll take him. THAT is how you change the course of a team that struggles for mediocrity at the position. Tom Waddle said today that great QBs make the surrounding players better, but surrounding a so-so QB with more talent doesn't improve the team. I think Poles has the right plan.
I love Waddle, but that’s nonsense. We’ve seen countless teams make players look better than when they get to another team, whether that be offensive weapons, offensive scheme, coaching, or other. Look no further than Cutler: well over 4K, traded to Chicago, gets destroyed in year one, never the same again.
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4 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:
Seen where last year, Fields was second in the league with pressure rate. 2022 he was first. No QB is going play well with constant pressure. I think this year he finally finishes building the OL, gets us one more weapon and an edge. That will be his theme this off-season.
Didn’t know that!! Not surprising. It’s the same thing every Bears QB since Cutler has had to deal with. When will this franchise ever learn?
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7 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:
If Poles doesn't take a QB with a top pick, he will get fired and deserve it. And we will suffer through another decade of awful teams.
If Poles picks a QB, Williams to be exact, with the #1, that rookie will flounder with a below average OL, a below average RB, and a poor offensive scheme. DJ will want to leave. Kmet will want to leave. Williams will show himself to be an eccentric prima donna. The rookie QB will then be a bust. And Poles will be fired for following the previous Bears’ flaws of hitching a wagon to yet another horse that’s walking into a minefield.
Clear the minefield first.
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7 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:
But if everything goes as planned and a higher percentage of your 1st and 2nd round draftees do well, and your team does well some of those players become trade bait for future 1st - 2nd round picks (ala Patriot-way) and thus “resetting the contract clock” on a bunch of players. IE: Justin himself a former 1st round pick could theoretically net at least one 2nd round pick and some even think 1st round.
Exactly.
I hate that we haven’t learned as a franchise yet. First Trubisky, now Fields, and yet some still want to go all in on a single guy for the third time. It baffles the mind. Why? So a new guy can come in and fail?
The Super Bowl is won by teams. Not individuals. Great teams make superstars. Mahomes goes from good to great because he has a very solid OL, an incredible offensive mind running the show, one of the best TEs in NFL history as a weapon, and a solid WR corp.
The Bears need to focus on becoming a team, and right now they have a long way to go offensively.
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3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:
Some teams get more help from referees than others. KC is one of them. How many times did Justin get hit and no calls and other QBs got calls if the DL looked at them wrong. Not sure any of that is changeable.
Bingo. That’s my point. Much easier to succeed when the OL is allowed to restrain rushing defenders like perps on a Cops rerun.
Bears need to get some of that respect. Until then, can’t really block (i.e. hold) and protect Fields.
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I think it shows that the worst teams don’t benefit much by drafting a WR highly because the WR is a player that only benefits from a sound team. That means an offense that’s established, with a coach who has had time to create and foster a successful culture, with an OC who has a proven track record.
Otherwise, a prima Donna WR is drafted, and the support structure above fails the player.
Of course, I believe the coaching flaws can be mitigated with the right OL, because players who are in the NFL are realistically good enough to do well if they have time to throw and/or run their routes.
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On 2/9/2024 at 2:59 PM, Mongo3451 said:
It's funny. I watched a video today, where Stephen A, Shannon Sharp and "the experts" were killing KC for moving up to draft by Mahomes. One of the experts said he had non-existent footwork and that Big 12 QB's don't translate to the NFL.
I do trust Poles though. Going into year three, gives me hope for to his track record so far. This will be the biggie of all biggies.
LOL! That’s great! Honestly, that’s why I think it’s all BS and the people who say “oh, they know way better than you because they’re in the NFL” are wrong. I know what my eyes see, and it doesn’t take someone with 20 years in the league to have the same draft success the Bears have had. That shit can be done by a drunk and a dart board.
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9 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:
What pieces do they need to end the trend?
I feel most drafted QBs need to come in to a good system like Mahomes, but then you see Stroud go to Hou with a new HC and OC and put up top 5 numbers. I think the Bears need a stud C and another good WR to have the basic pieces.
Poles has put it out that the only way he budges on the #1 pick is if he is offered a historic haul. He did that last year and teams called. He will listen again this year and maybe he gets another.
Agree. They need to bolster the OL by getting a top tier OG and OC, adding a pro WR opposite DJ, and seeing if they can get someone to be a NFL-level RB that actually screw opponents.
If they start with the OL, the rest is a lot easier.
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I hate that Nagy has a ring now.
My Keep Justin Draft...
in Bearstalk
Posted
The fact that I look at some of these and think of how many trades you had to make them come true, and I STILL think it’s believable, is exactly why trading down makes sense. Load up, double down on positions of need, draft insurance picks.