jason
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On 1/26/2024 at 10:23 AM, adam said:
Of the players listed here, who are you resigning, who exceeded expectations:
Obviously JJ did, Mooney was terrible, Ngakoue underperformed, Tonyan was a joke, Patrick was bad, Jones was ok, Foreman had flashes but his inactives were odd. Scales if fine, really didn't get to see Feeney, so that ends up as sort of a wasted draft pick trade. Lewis was very solid for TE3, Green was terrible, Taylor was serviceable at best. Did Cole play? ESB underperformed this year and seemed hurt or inactive more than anything. Blackwell was decent from what I remember. Reed did nothing.
So there are a lot of roster spots to fill, and most could use upgrades.
LOL. This is easy. Everyone under JJ can be cut without losing a second of sleep.
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I’m this order:
C - Connor Williams
WR2 - Calvin Ridley
LT - Tyron Smith -
On 1/14/2024 at 1:59 PM, Lucky Luciano said:
ok, riddle me this....
how did our defensive scheme hold up against PLAYOFF teams with good + qb's?
i seem to remember they could pass at will to our soft zones. like maybe green bay has been doing for over 20 years?
how did it hold up before we had a very good defensive end to pressure the qb?
how did it hold up against playoff teams even with sweat? how did green bay counter that? QUICK passes into our zones that nobody covered. they could have beat us by 50 if they wanted to.
how did lovie smith's defense hold up against playoff teams with good + quarterbacks after he fired chico and gave the DC to his linebacker coach to mimic his defensive style and game plan?
i'm sorry but this is the same old shite we have been beaten to a pulp with for over 20 years.
Preach the gospel, brother. Preach it.
I’m so sick of this base cover-2 concept as a bend-but-don’t-break starting point because eventually it gets shredded by good QBs with decent TTT, or decent QBs with good TTT.
I know there are numerous times over the years I’ve remarked while watching that the Bears D was making some journeyman QB into a HOFer. Who remembers when TO got like 46 receptions for a gazillion yards in one game and Jeff Garcia looked like Tom Brady on Ritalin?
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2 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:
Your wild card strategy….Bears sign Russel Wilson, trade the first for a fortune and trade Justin.
Why you ask? Because Wilson post cut has offset language in his contract so Bears could pay him league minimum for a couple years and just built a monster around him.
Note: I am not really proposing the above - but I guarantee there is an analytics model somewhere that says that would be a brilliant idea.
Honestly, I’d be 100% OK with that. Make an immediate run for the SB.
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1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:
Not only is not possible for them. It's dumb as hell for us. Revisionist history tells us trading away picks is not beneficial. We would have to trade them three number ones for Herbert, not just THE number one. Then yes, you are on it. How do you protect the new guy? We already ruined every QB we've had the last thirty years by NOT providing them the protection to do their damn job! Why would we trade for another guy, just to ruin him by trading away capitol?
❤️❤️❤️
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10 hours ago, ParkerBear7 said:
This is an unlikely scenario but I’m an out of the box thinker!
We know that teams are getting more and more impatient every year. Oakland fired Hurricane Josh McDaniels less than 2 years in but they should have never hired him in the first place as he was a disaster in Denver; then jilted the Colts. I never understood why Aaron Rodgers chose to go to the AFC which is an absolute Gauntlet to make it to the SB having to go through all those talented teams with stud QBs Patrick Mahomes, Jackson, Allen, Burrow et ol!
With this stated premise could a team like the LA Charges decide to do a reset now knowing that they are pretty far behind KC, Buffalo, Cincy, Baltimore etc that they would consider trading Justin Herbert to the Bears for the number 1 pick in this years Draft? The Rams and Lions kinda of did this a few years ago and it seemed to be a win win for both organizations. Rams won the superbowl two years ago and the Lions are advancing to the NFC championship game this year.
If I’m Ryan Poles I’m leaving no stone unturned. Imagine pulling off a trade like this then flipping Fields to a team like Pittsburgh or Atlanta?
I’m glad others have made that impossible from a cap perspective, because I would hate it for two reasons.
1. It would put Herbert in a less than envious position with multiple glaring holes on offense, same as Fields.
2. It would neuter trade potential for Fields.
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10 hours ago, ParkerBear7 said:
I’m glad you brought up Nix because I don’t watch hardly any College football and was wondering about him. Bo Nix’s stats are incredible but read a few draft reports stating he doesn’t have a good arm? He also seems to be very mobile.
He seems like a perfect prospect to grab this year to push Fields to become great or next QB we BEARS Fans used to know!
Those reports are BS. His arm is very strong.
I personally witnessed him throw a 60ish yd bomb in HS - from about the 10 to past opposite 40 - as I ran as fast as I could to keep up with the eventual 90yd TD.
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6 hours ago, adam said:
The only issue is he has done it every year, not just one, and it's also not like it is 3.0X: 3.16 in 2023, 3.24 in 2022 (Heisman year), and holy crap 3.51 in 2021 (OK). So it's not like he had one year where it jumps out. As far as I can tell, Williams is the only QB that I could find with 3+ years with a TTT above 3.0.
Mahomes: 2.77, 2.85
Fields: 3.11, 3.18
Last QBs above 3.0 for 2 or more seasons:
Tune, Willis, Pickett, Fields, Hurts, Ehlinger, and Jackson
Only Ehlinger and Williams had 3 seasons above 3.0 since the stat was recorded.Williams is the only QB to ever throw for 4K yards while having a TTT over 3.2. So he either is a unicorn, or things are going to come crashing down for him in the NFL when you have less than 2.5 to actually throw the ball.
That’s basically what I see when watching the Williams highlights. Everyone raves on the results but ignores the fact that he has time to tie his shoes every other play. Easy to look great under those conditions, which has basically been my stance for the past 30yrs as a Bears fan. Give a QB more time and any of them that make the NFL are good enough to put up good to great stats.
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Trade the house. Stockpile picks. Build the OL. Add a WR.
And then draft Nix.
He’s got an above average ability in every passing category. Great arm and pocket presence, excellent at reading the defense, has a pedigree, pretty mobile, short delivery, and great footwork.
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On 1/19/2024 at 11:21 AM, Stinger226 said:
There is all kind of examples to show whatever narrative you wish to prove. If Williams is a tier one QB, I have no doubt we take him but no one knows that yet. As near as last year, A team took Bryce Young with that same thought. How did that work out?
Precisely. I’m a math guy and rolling the dice on one pick just doesn’t make sense unless you know 100% he’s legit. Which, of course, you don’t know.
That kind of philosophy is how people go broke in real life. The Bears should approach the draft with a large cap mutual fund philosophy. Lots of good, fairly safe (i.e. dominant player from large, football heavy school with good measurables) is better than putting all your money on a roulette wheel.
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14 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:
And you have to ask is he a product of the system or??? His backup threw six TDs in their last bowl game.
THANK YOU! I remember thinking that when I watched the game, but I already let that slip in memory.
I can't tell you how many friends of mine have called or texted to tell me they hope the Bears screw up, pick Williams, restart the cycle, and stay the perpetually bad Chicago Bears team. That's exactly how it feels. Starting over and over and over again. We may as well have kept Lovie Smith and accepted 9-7 every year.
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On 1/17/2024 at 12:06 AM, AZ54 said:
You can't watch this and not think we're taking Williams #1 overall. I still question his leadership and that's a huge red flag at the moment for me. He is just 21 and most people grow over time but I don't want a selfish Kyler Murray type on the roster regardless of physical talent. Just like Jalen Carter last year how Williams handles the draft process will determine a lot for me. I also need to see the measurables just for validation. 6' and under starts getting tricky to play QB in the NFL, that's another issue Murray has to deal with.
If things don't go his way early can Williams handle the negative press coverage? Boos in the stadium? Plus in Chicago he'd have to win over the locker room and that won't be easy. Can he handle a 4 game losing streak where he played poorly and continue to put the work in and lead the team?
This is a weird situation for me because I still think Fields is a top 15 QB in the league and will easily grow into a top 10 QB with the right talent around him. The options are Fields plus a bounty for trading down which could easily net the Bears a few more Pro Bowl caliber players. Assuming Poles continues to draft well, then the trade down scenario gets so much future talent it almost certainly sets this team up long term to be a perennial playoff contender.
Draft Williams and trade Fields also gets something but not nearly as high, plus carries risk of Williams flaming out. Williams has to be good enough to offset the talent gap of what we'd lose over the next 2 drafts. Some might say the rookie contract is enough to offset that with FAs.
Williams is almost certainly headed to Chicago for a pre-draft visit.
I guess I'll be the one who says I watched it and wouldn't take him #1 for the Bears.
1. Arm Strength - Great. He will make some throws others can't. But he won't have the time to load up and throw the varying routes. Shown in this video.
2. Pocket Presence - I watched the highlights, and in one play he had a full ten seconds from snap to throw. Hilarious. Justin Fields has likely NEVER had ten seconds in a single play with the Bears. He'll need pocket presence if he comes to the Bears.
3. Playing in Rhythm - Wow, this one sounds just like Fields coming out of college. Everything is different with timing and plays when under pressure and the window collapses. Watch the highlight, and just about all the "doesn't play on time"-plays are when pressured. Imagine that. The guy even says Williams passes up the throw/play he should make, hunting for the bigger play while going through progressions.
The Bears would be better off trading down, stock-piling picks, and building a team like the Cowboys did with the Herschel Walker trade.
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On 1/15/2024 at 1:12 PM, adam said:
Yeah, it's not rocket science either. If you can put guys in motion you stress the defense. Misdirection then makes them a half step slow because they can't commit 100% one way. So even on plays that are not misdirection later, the LBs are a step slow to the hole because they have to ensure the play is not going in the other direction.
Getsy's play design was worse than just taking plays out of Madden.
Nowadays, you can have analytics and AI build you undefendable plays against various defenses. I honestly don't know how the Bears offense could look that bad two years in a row. At least under Nagy, it was serviceable. Since Getsy it has turned into a pile of dung.
Pretty much my exact POV. I don't see how we have at worst the second most mobile QB in the NFL and barely ever have him out of the pocket. Barely ever have misdirection. It's like Getsy played Madden with Peyton Manning, saw things work, and thought it naturally translated to Fields. Mind-boggling.
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His bullshit reasoning is why McMahon didn’t play longer as a Bear, and why Charles Martin should have faced severe penalty.
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5 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:
I wasn't necessarily doing an endorsement of Bagent over Fields. It was an endorsement of the guy that gets rid of the ball. When you have Thayer yelling in the mic to throw it, that means something. You've seen the receivers running un-checked, while he's looking at them, and he doesn't pull the trigger. I'm not satisfied with the rate of improvement.
Let's talk about tailoring an offense for Justin. You can't do it! He can't hit the slant. He almost never reads the read option correctly. Since he can't do that, you can't run the screen game. It also affects your running game because there is always an extra man in the box. Those are all staples of the running quarterback. Scream for the rollout everybody! Now, we've taken half the field out of the play. Who ya gonna burn when the safetys' job got exponentially easier? Don't forget the SPY that's in the box. His job got easier too. The key to everyone's thinking in tailoring an offense is just a phalicy. Why does it no longer work for Hurts, when he has weapons and a great OL? Why does it work for Lamar? He throws the slant and is great at the read option.
You make some solid points, but it's not that simple IMO. Fields lacks confidence, which impacts the slant, etc. You mentioned rollouts, which is odd because that doesn't appear to even be in the playbook. Maybe if it were run a few times then the Bears could actually take advantage of misdirection. There is virtually no misdirection or surprise on the 2023 Chicago Bears' offense.
Look at Stroud yesterday.
TD #1 - Fake toss right, WR screen left for
TD #2 - Fake handoff, naked boot to throwing arm side, dump off and the receiver gets 60yds YAC.
TD #3 - Gee, whattaya know? Another fake handoff, naked boot to throwing arm side, bomb to a wide open WR who had a ton of time to run a slow-developing double move.
Everyone's blowing Stroud like he didn't make three easy throws. Put Fields in just some of those situations and maybe he looks a bit different.
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1 hour ago, ChileBear said:
Wow, did Bagent piss in your cereal? imDo he showed he is at least a competent backup and perhaps could be developed with the right coach/coordinator. Do I think he's our franchise guy? Of course not, but he showed confidence and moxy for how he came into the league.
He looked like a bad backup with potential to be a competent NFL journeyman. I also liked his confidence. And, yeah, he surprised everyone by not being 100% terrible. But when people start saying he should start over Fields because of stat A or stat B, it gets a little ridiculous.
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12 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:
John Doe is getting laid, while Jim Doe is getting laid out, because he couldn't pull the trigger. It's obvious and sad...
At best, John Doe got help from his wingmen to get two fat Girl’s’ phone numbers.
The Bears sucked during his 5-game stretch, only won two games, one of which was a squeaker versus the lowly Panthers, and Bagent averaged less than 200yds per game.
I love the story like anyone else, but let’s not get it confused with revisionist history. Bagent sucked. But he did a few things differently than Fields, one of which is getting rid of the ball quickly. That was clearly by design to make up for Bagent’s glaring weaknesses. (Gee, imagine if they game-planned specifically for the things Fields does well.)
Comparing the two with any stat is laughable at best given how much the team had to change just so Bagent could look professional.
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On 1/12/2024 at 3:03 PM, DABEARSDABOMB said:
Let me put stats out there:
Bagent's sack percentage on drop-backs: 3.4%
Fields sack percentage on drop-backs: 10.6%
John Doe says "Hi" to 100 women and only 3.4% reject him.
Jim Doe say "Hi baby, you wanna go out?" to 100 women and 10.6% reject him.
Takes no nuts or courage to do the first thing. Doing the second thing is going for the win instead. I'd rather have the latter. The former is a recipe for John Shoop dink and dunk, teams that hover around .500, and zero excitement.
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This thread is one of the primary reasons why I’ve limited my games to just one or two a year for the last several years.
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6 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:
Unless you find a Brock Purdy or Tom Brady.
That’s just a bonus. If you can find studs later than the second round then it’s the cherry on top.
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2 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:
PFF Data (I get it - PFF) - Sorted for Fields:
Starting on Right Side:
Basically - both our QB and Oline are pretty-bad. So Non-QB pressure we rate poorly, but he is also really poor and creates his own "pressure". Basically 7th worse in the league (is where Fields is) where as the oline is 9th worse. yet the % that is OL responsibility is very favorable (how does that add up with being really bad at Non QB pressures). The bright side is our LG (Jenkins) and RT (Wright) are good...the LT and RG are mediocre and center is bad (passes my eye test). The % other responsibility is pretty massive - does that mean our RB's are terrible blockers or is that like not being set-up appropriately?
Looking at the Left:
Fields is good at maximizing time on the scramble - the next question is how effective is he actually making plays on the scramble (relative to expectation). Clearly in side the pocket he is bad and this also highlights he does not throw into tight coverage. On one hand - that should be good - fewer picks, downfall is, to win in this league you got to throw guys open and have conviction making tight window throws. Fields clearly doesn't have it. And from an expected completion percentage - he flat out executes poorly. Ranking 45th of QB's which is clearly AWFUL.
Overall: I won't pretend to understand these metrics and have plenty of questions as outlined above. But most of this data backs my eye test and tells me Fields just isn't a good QB (when I say QB - I'm not saying scrambler and athlete), I am saying good QB. Those things are nice - but 3 years in the league and the things that differentiate you most as a QB he is poor at. It is pretty evident in my mind Bears are headed down a path where they are taking a QB with one of their 1st picks.
Noting the PFF source is worth triple highlighting. Their stats are steaming dumpster juice as we all have discussed numerous times. I didn't even want to quote reply and leave their data in there.
My eye test says the OL isn't very good and the Bears only have one quality WR on the roster.
Having said that, I honestly think the stats are deceiving for Fields. It seems like every other play one of the linemen take their turn sucking and letting a guy fly right through. So, that probably makes the Fields stats amplified towards the negative because he's never comfortable. And when they're not rotating being horrible, the pocket collapses faster that that submersible that went to visit the Titanic. (too soon?)
Do I think Fields is Peyton Manning? But I think he's a top-10 QB if the Bears ever sorted out out how to protect him, game plan to take advantage of his strengths, and have NFL-caliber talent to catch the ball.
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20 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:
for sure on keeping Justin last year - it would have been stupid not to. we needed to see who he was, how he could grow. you cant just walk away from that kind of athletic talent without at least seeing him with something around him. Now this year, thats a different story. But who is the right rookie? Who the heck knows. Maybe the best one this year will end up to be Mccarthy in the second round, or maybe its Williams at #1 etc. My crystal ball is entirely cloudy.
And that's kind of the point. Nobody has the clear crystal ball. Even Bill Polian said the draft is at best 50/50. That's why I'm a huge advocate of trading down just about every year.
Before I say this, I know it's not technically how the math works out, but...
If the success rate of a first round pick is 35%, and a second round pick is 20%, I'd rather go with two of the second round guys. The second round guys are less likely to turn into HoF players as some other number crunching has shown in the past, but a team full of 2nd round players is more likely a complete team compared to a team that has players littered from 1st through UDFA.
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10 hours ago, TravD said:
If he get's Caleb Williams, that was a hell of a Deal. He knows what he is looking at going into the draft. If he doesn't he messed up hard on Stroud and Williams. He failed with Stroud and Williams if he doesn't go that way. I was watching a thing earlier, someone asked Polian back in the day what it would take to get Manning after he got him. He said more than 10 1st rounders. Hitting on a QB covers up so many positions, and having one like Fields you have to invest into so many positions to cover him up.
I argue he did not fail with Stroud. No way he could have selected another QB last year.
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The most shocking thing today was to find out the Bears had a QB Coach.
Bears Hire DC - Eric Washington
in Bearstalk
Posted
Honestly, that's why I was such a fan of Martz and Crowton. They were offensive minds. Some say they were crazy, but they at least tried to step outside the box and shock the defense. Remember that Martz was short-lived under Lovie because the Tackles where Omi-Fail and Jamarcus Webb (LOL), and instead of getting receivers they thought they'd take Devin Hester and turn him into one. As for Crowton, who could forget the Cade McNown draft (hated it), which turned into the Matthews-Miller-McNown law firm of mediocrity. If either of them had the support of the organization or the HC, maybe they would have succeeded.