Stinger226
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Posts posted by Stinger226
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Here is a mock draft that I could live with except I don't know anything about the OT at the end of the draft.
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If they drafted all oline I would understand that but Poles isn't going to do that. If Alt drops to 9 , BPA logic tells you to take him but I don't think that will happen.
Poles is not drafting a OG at 9, you can make all kinds of scenarios for it. A WR or DE will have more of an impact than a guard,now if he moves back to the teens then I think JPJ is more in play than a OG. It was the worst in the league last year and JPJ is probably future pro bowl.
The guards this year is not going to be a problem. If Jenkins has injury issues again he brought in competent backups, Bates or Shelton fills the spot. Matt Pryor can play there to. Davis will not be a problem, last year was unique because his mother died while living with him.
So realistically Odunze or trade back and opens other possibilities. If 3 #1 WRS are on the field Caleb will not need 4 seconds to get a throw off. I think average in the league last year was 2.47 seconds to get a pass off.
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7 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:
I agree with all of that.
High side of rookies, for sure. And I also agree that just because I expect mistakes doesnt mean Caleb cant come out and just kill it from the start either. I wouldnt put any ceiling on this team. I dont expect a superbowl for us this year, and I wouldnt bet money on one but its not impossible. Starting now, nothing is.The over for game wins is 8.5. I am definitely getting some of that barring injuries.
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29 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:
Hes a generational prospect with a high chance to be a generational QB in the league, but first he will be a rookie.
There is no reason we cant get 10 wins, but he isnt going to be generational right out of the gate. You have to expect him to throw his rookie interceptions like ALL of them do. Even the greats.I don't expect him to be mistake free as a rookie. I expect to see some interceptions and fumbles but his overall performance needs to be on the high side of rookie seasons. I expect the OL to be top 15, WR room to be top 5, running game top 5. Then you add a defense that will get a lot of TOs, that's a winning record.
I'm an optimist and no reason to temper it this season.
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If you have a GENERATIONAL QB , you have to have higher expectations. 10 is the minimum. We have the forth easiest schedule in the league. A good OC will call plays to make the QB succeed. Getsy didn't do that last year, it was system system system.
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As far as the draft we all have preferences but I will trust Poles to do what's best for the Bears. 1 + 9 are no brainers who ever we get so what can we get at 75?
The strength of the draft is WR and OL. I think CB is rated high to. The first two picks will be starters at some point this year but 75 and 122 will be looked at as contributors and potential starters down the road.
Using GBNdraft report big board. 250 strong. Here is 10 back and 10 forward from that pick.
65) Bralen Trice/DE
68) Roman Wilson/WR
70) Cooper Beebe/OG
71) Brandon Dorlus/DE
75) Luke McCaffrey/WR
79) Mo Kamara/DE
82) Kiran Amedgadjie/ OT
So who you taking?
If we took a DE at 9, Roman Wilson
If we took a WR at 9 Bralen Trice
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3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:
yeah, it's going to be a lot of fun. I will be glued to the TV.
In Thailand until May 1 , so normally I wouldn't be able to watch the draft but I just bought a box that literally lets me watch any TV program or streaming service in the USA free. I'm sure somewhere in sorted copyright laws it's illegal. I'll have to live with the shame.
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20 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:
I think the idea is you want to give Caleb his signature guy to develop ESP with - that kind of communication because you grew up in the offense together, and you already know what the other guy is thinking.
In the 70s and 80s there was always that stud receiver paired with the star QB for multiple seasons.
If Poles is looking long term, then he loves Keenan Allen for giving Caleb a jump start, but he looks at that position as a hole long term.
So this is our last top ten draft draft for a while. You want to use it on an impact position, which is QB (already done), Pass Rusher (including 3T), OT or WR. So you ask yourself not just what does the roster need this year, but who are my pillars for the next 10 years.
If you think one of the WRs is a game changer, you take them regardless of Allen being on the roster.
If you think there is a pass rusher who will take over games, you take him.
If you think there is a left tackle that will keep Caleb clean for the next 12 years, you take him.
So rather than looking at position and this years roster, ask instead, of the D linemen, WRs and OTs, which player is truly a difference maker. If you think Jared Verse is an edge rusher that can take over games and make Montez Sweat DE2, then you grab him. But if he isnt that, but some OT is, then you gotta go with the most talented game changer regardless of position.
Maybe thats an argument for Bowers, or for trading up. Or maybe someone thinks Fashanu or Turner or whoever is that guy.
But that's the point - whos the best impact player you can get, not what fills a roster hole in 2024 a little better?That's exactly how I look at what has the most impact for the short and long term.
TBH they can't go wrong with anyone they pick. OT, WR, Edge, DT and I will throw in JPJ will have an impact on the now and future.
We should just buy popcorn and sit back and enjoy the conversation after the draft.
Guarantee we add more picks somewhere even pick if its 9 for 13 and 44
If its 75 for 87 and 103.
if its 122 for 130 and 160. ( random numbers).
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3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:
Caleb green flag! LOL
Apparently he's been meeting with the team on zoom calls every week having "frank" discussions - one assumes about ball security - and that speaks to being open to coaching.
Awesome.
If red flags look like that , we need to fly more red flags. You see his abilities even when he breaks down.
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I keep reading where experts say we need to draft another #1 WR?
We are in a unique situation, 2 #1s, top 10 TE, top 15 #2 TE, quality receiving RB.
Minn) Jefferson-Addison-Hockenson
Philly) A J Brown-D Smith-Goddert
SF) Kittle- Ayuck-Samuel
We are already top 5-10 receiving team in the league.
No team has 3 #1s and quality TEs.
Allen may be one and done, but will have the money to tag him keeping one more year. I think we can get a quality #2 or 3 WR at pick 75.
DJ Moore 96--1364--8
Keenan Allen--108--1243--8
Cole Kmet--73--719--6
Gerald Everett--51--411--3
D. Swift 39--214--1
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On 4/19/2024 at 2:52 AM, BearFan PHX said:
I agree with all of this!
Leno was a nightmare. PFF told us he was gold. LOL That's when I really soured on PFF. Like all of us, we watched the games, and saw how absolutely awful he was, and they were praising him as a top LT. It was probably the beginning of needing to see my own film.
I also agree that having a QB like Williams who moves in the pocket in ways to help the OL will make things better, but I also know how a top 10 OL helps you win games, and close them out. If you can make first downs on the ground, there is no need to punt and play prevent defense.
Imagine having Caleb as a top QB, and being able to still lean heavily on the run? That's how you win playoff games.That's what we have. Caleb + run game
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19 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:
yeah, I just disagree, but I have no more facts than you (or Spielman) does, just my opinion too.
As much as I don't think we are drafting a LT at 9, I understand that book end Ts would be an asset for any team, I just don't think that Alt will be there at 9. For the same reason people give why we should take him, Chargers, Tennessee and Atlanta could make the same argument.
As we see WRs keep getting bigger and bigger contracts, the more I think if one of the top WRs are there, we will take one. But chances of that are not good either. Any way you want to figure it edge keeps popping up as the best value pick at that spot.
If we trade back ( best case scenario), then JPJ, Bowers, and our highest rated edge are more likely the choice.( Turner is rated higher but I think Verse fits our scheme better)
As far as Poles trading up, no chance in hell he does that. ( cost to high).
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If we need to grab a WR late , why not Tahj Washington? Him and Caleb already have a connection and he has game.
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2 minutes ago, AZ54 said:
No too rich for me. Also the drop off to the 3rd or even 4th/5th best WRs isn't that great this year. We also have Bowers out there as a really good receiving option, and with the right supporting cast he might pose more of a problem to defenses than Harrison.
I agree with that. Lots of people dismiss a great TE but if he's George Kittle, even with Kmet, that is a nightmare for DCs. The physically of TEs is already a challenge, but imagine 3 good catching TEs on the field at one time with DJ as your lone WR
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I wouldn't do it just because of the value of the pick. Look at trades the last few years. We got Allen with a 4th. All kinds of examples of high end players going for mid round picks. With a potential generational QB, lesser talented WRs can be great.
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14 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:
Ok I can agree with that, a 5th round pick, you dont expect greatness so if you find it its a bonus.
BUt if your plan is to build a roster, then youre picking higher because thats where the more likely successes are?
So trading down doesnt necessarily make it better. When it comes to a 3rd rounder, year, 2 4ths are probably better, but if you have a certain guy targeted who fell, then thats better.
But either way, this is our last top pick for a while, so you want to get a blue chip player if you can, and not just give away your upside for insurance?I have never disagreed with those beliefs but a good drafting GM can find gems more frequently in later rounds. Bagent and Sanborn are examples of finding players later. Of course odds of stardom are against you but not everyone on your roster can be first round picks
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6 minutes ago, BearFan PHX said:
Thank you for saying that.
Listen i dont think that Spielman said it makes it WRONG either, it's just another opinion for sure.
I just think the Bears are considering OT with their second pick. And DL and WR too.I actually don't disagree with that statement, it's just my opinion, their not going to do that. If they literally took 4 offensive line man, I would understand it.
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Gabriel and Speilman outlined how boards are made up and both said that need is figured in the equation. They go vertical and horizontal.
For example if you have the third WR rated close to the same value as a OT, you may take the WR instead of the first OT off the board.
They also said that they first do a valuation of their roster to know may be biggest needs and second as far as projected starters or quality backups.
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7 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:
I didnt say any of the things youre saying I said.
I didnt say your opinion is wrong because it is shared by Spielman, I just said its still just an opinion. That's all I said.
I do think the Bears are looking to draft an OT this year. They are also looking hard at WR and DL.
If Spielman says they arent considering an OT, then I think he is wrong.
I dont know why you think Im saying you dont have a right to your opinions. Im only saying you dont have a right to say I dont have a right to mine just because Spielman says so.The jest of your statement I interpreted was just because Speilman was a GM doesn't mean he's smart. Of course it's not that black and white. I listened to him and likes the way he framed his opinions. He said he doesn't think their taking a OT, nothing about they aren't considering it. Did you watch any of his videos? That is the best way to understand his opinions.
When we read or watch videos, some we like and some we don't. It's usually ones we agree with. There is value in listening to people that have a different opinion, because sometimes we change our mind. As much as I don't agree with a lot of things you say, there has been a few times I changed my opinion and you contributed to that.
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I think the ideal situation would be to get your franchise QB next year in the Fourth year of rebuilding. One more year of rebuilding would set up the QB for success. Poles get the chance to do it now, so he has to take it but we still can't fill all the needs with this year of the draft.
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3 hours ago, BearFan PHX said:
no, it's not a higher risk. more busts come out of each later round than in the first round.
What I think you've discovered is that more unexpected players are able to break out of the mold at lower rounds at WR than OL. But lower round picks are still much more likely to bust?If I draft a DE in the first round and he fails, big deal . If a 5 th round pick fails, not that big a deal. That's what I'm talking about with higher risk. I'm not saying higher risk of failure in earlier rounds.
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I think I keep forgetting something about this draft. Great QBS make players around them better.
Was GBs OL we always good or did Arron Rodgers make them look good?
If we have a great QB, isn't his ability to sidestep pressure and quick throws going to make the line better? We added Bates who will be better than the mess we had there last year. Davis is a year past his tradegy that affected his play. Jenkins will probably be hurt a few games so we have Shelton as a better backup. Wright and Braxton will progress with another year of NFL indoctrination. I suspect we draft one or two more to help with depth.
As far as weapons, we have 2 #1 WRs already on the team. Caleb should make Kmet a top 5 TE. Evvertt is a perfect #2. Tyler Scott, Venus Jones and Dante Pettis should all look better with Caleb throwing to them. We will add one in the draft, does it need to be at pick 9 ?
With Caleb at QB, teams will never be able to load the box.
What say you?
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1 minute ago, killakrzydav said:
Wowsers, I thought y'all blocked each other. If you don't quote the other person you won't ever see each other.
I never said I would block him, he said he blocked me. My doors alwaysopen for debate any time. He likes to push back on posts I make.
I seen several videos by Rick Speilman and liked his opinions. Apparently he doesn't agree with them.
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9 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:
He's not arguing that Spielman is right. He's stating that he trusts him and others like him over less football centric folks that haven't played, coached or scouted professionally. It's the same way I think due to the smallest of things they know, that we don't.
As an example, I was a very good baseball player and was asked to walk on at IU. However, I was very untrained as an athlete due to poor coaching. These dudes knew so much more than me mentally and physically. I didn't stick.
Skip forward 30 years to me coaching my son in baseball. I thought I was doing alright until a former pro can't to work with me. I quickly made him the coach and learned directly from a pro. It was night and day. He still knows more than he can ever teach. After that we got another pro in the coaching tree and these dudes speak a different language that the rest of us can't keep up with. They are the real deal and they know we aren't.
So, here we are, only giving opinions and eye test analysis. I think I know OL and DL better than most on here, because that's what I used to be. But if I'm talking to a pro, I always acquiesce to their knowledge. Do they get things wrong? Absolutely. Do we get things right? Yes. But they get more right than we do by a long shot.
That's kind of my point.
PHX, you give your opinions like you were a scout for 20 years and then tell people they have dumb thoughts because they don't see what you do.
Then you try to argue my point about some former football guys aren't any smarter than others. I listen to people and some come across as being smarter than others that do that job. That's my opinion, it doesn't mean I'm right or wrong.
The logical fallacy here is you think you're smarter than they are if they would happen to disagree with you. I would love you to go to a NBC talk show and tell Dave Wannsted he's dumb for having his opinion.
Mine---your thoughts are just opinions Former players get to have them to. I never said because he was a former GM, that his opinion is the gold standard. I just liked how he framed it.
There is no supreme court we go to prove either of us wrong. It's just open debate.
* - - Official 2024 Draft Day Thread - - *
in Bearstalk
Posted
After be traded Fields, there was only one option where common sense comes into play. If he planned to take a different QB, he just would have kept Fields.