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adam

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Everything posted by adam

  1. Since Week 5, the Bears are clumped together in a group of teams between 5th and 10th. 1. SF 2. DAL 3. BAL 4. MIA 5. CIN 6. MIN 7. BUF 8. CHI 9. KC 10. NO The top 14 are normally playoff teams. That 0-4 start really hurt. The Bears have the worst record of that group.
  2. adam

    Bears Defense

    Since Week 5, the Bears defense is as a Top 2 rushing defense and top 12 passing defense. Collectively, that equates to a top 5 defense.
  3. adam

    Fields-O-Meter

    Since Week 4, Fields is comparable to Prescott, Allen, Hurts, Cousins, Tua, Burrow, and Wilson when it comes to Advanced Stats (EPA/Play and CPOE), which are probably the best QB metrics. Purdy is in a league of his own.
  4. This week has a tone of interesting games that can help/hurt the Bears playoff chances and/or draft position. 7 games have a team that can impact both the draft and playoff chances. MIN @ CIN - A CIN win helps the Bears playoff chances (MIN goes to 8 losses) and draft position (lowers SoS). DEN @ DET - A DEN win helps draft position (lowers SoS) and slightly helps playoff chances (If DET loses out). ATL @ CAR - This one is either or. A CAR win helps playoffs (ATL goes to 8 losses), but hurts draft slightly (1 win closer to NE/ARZ). An ATL win solidifies the #1 pick. TB @ GB - A TB win helps the Bears playoff chances (GB foes to 8 losses) and slightly for draft position (SoS). NYJ @ MIA - A NYJ win would help the Bears pick (NYJ goes to 6 wins). NYG @ NO - A NYG win helps both playoff chances (NYG goes to 6 wins) and the Bears pick. HOU @ TEN - A TEN win helps the Bears pick (TEN goes to 6 wins). KC @ NE - A NE solidifies #1 pick and brings NE one win closer to Bears win total (if Bears lose). SF @ ARZ - An ARZ win helps solidify the #1 pick and brings ARZ one win closer to Bears win total (if Bears lose). WAS @ LAR - A WAS win would help both the draft position and playoff chances (LAR goes to 8 losses). PHI @ SEA - A PHI win helps the Bears playoff chances (SEA goes to 8 losses).
  5. He's not fired yet, but after that embarrassing performance, it is impossible that he survives this season. The best part from last night, they interviewed him coming off the field at halftime:
  6. It actually helps the Bears playoff chances a little bit because it improves the Strength of Victory, which is one of the tie breakers.
  7. Yeah that was debunked as fake by JJ himself on the Score. He is going to get a top 5 CB contract when it occurs. Poles needs to do it sooner than later as his price is going up. He is the #1 rated CB on PFF.
  8. adam

    Fields-O-Meter

    So I am thinking wanting a 4K season is a stretch for Fields with the low volume. So would something in between Jackson and Hurts be a more realistic target? Lamar Jackson's highest passing yardage (Season - 3,127 yds), highest per game average (225.7 y/g). Jalen Hurts' highest passing yardage (Season - 3,701 yds), highest per game average (246.7 y/g). So 3,414 yds for the season is the halfway point between Jackson's best season and Hurts'? To get there, Fields would need to average 201 yds per game, which ironically is the exact number is averaging this season, lol. However, he needs to play 17 to hit that. So more realistically, 228 yds (for 15 games) to hit that. Thoughts?
  9. adam

    Fields-O-Meter

    One huge factor to consider with JF1s numbers that is beyond Fields control (mostly) is in the number of passing attempts he has per game. He averages a solid 7.1 Y/A for this season (last 2) and 7.0 for his career. In order to have a 300 yard passing game with that number, he would need to 43 attempts in a game. There is just one problem. HE HAS NEVER ATTEMPTED 40 PASSES IN A GAME IN HIS CAREER! OK, so maybe 300 yards per game is too much? How about we want him to be the first franchise 4K Passer? If he plays every game, he would need 235 yards per game. Easy right? Well.......... He would need to attempt 34 passes, every game, to surpass 235 a game to get to 4K (if he played in every game too). So how many times has Justin attempted 34 or more passes? 4 times! Once in 2021 and 3 times this season, but that's it, 4 times in his 36 starts. He is averaging 28 attempts per game this season, with 7.1 Y/A = 201 yds per game. So just to get to 235, he needs 6 per attempts per game, to hit 300, he would need 15 more than he has right now. Just based on the number of plays run, it is really hard for him to have a 300 yard game. He would need a super high Y/A or super high comp pct%.
  10. Bears lost Yannick, but Browns have lost Okoronkwo (DE), Delpit (S), D. Jones (RT), Hurst (DT), in addition to already had lost Watson, Chubb, Conklin, Wills, and McLeod. For PFF, Chubb was their #1 offensive player at 81.6, Conklin was 74.5, Watson was 67.3, D. Jones was 64.7, and Wills 54.0. On defense, Hurst was #2 at 81.0, Delpit was 70.0, Okoronkwo 66.1, and McLeod was 54.1. That's basically 7 starters out of 22. The Bears will be playing 1/3 of Browns backups, and with their top 2 OTs only having 372 and 304 snaps on the season with PFF grades of 48.4 and 38.5. In comparison, Wright has 864 snaps and Jones has 461, and even Borom has 408.
  11. Tough loss, but I believe DomRob should be coming back soon. He has yet to play with Sweat. Ngakoue has the 3rd highest # of snaps out of Edge rushers the last 2 weeks, behind Sweat and Walker. PFF hated Ngaokoue, he only had a 39.9 PFF Grade, which is basically tackling dummy level. His tackling was the worst on the team, Rush Def was bottom 2, and even Pass Rush was under average.
  12. adam

    Fields-O-Meter

    One other thing I noticed, Justin doesn't seem to have that 4th gear this year where he runs away from defenders. I wonder if he is just saving energy or if it is something else. He is still as fast as hell, he is just no longer showing up on the fastest ball carrier page on Next Gen Stats. He was all over it last year.
  13. The Bears are not facing Watson, there is now enough tape on Flacco in this offense to start to shut him down, he is old for an NFL QB, and was bad before. With a lot of 2nd stringers on the O-Line, the front-4 should be able to get some pressures. Bears by at least 10. I am thinking our Defense continues its turnover trend and gets 2 more INTs against Flacco. The Bears are now 2nd in INTs (15), only to SF (17), and are no longer last in sacks (thanks CAR).
  14. After seeing Jalen Carter play at an All-Pro level, it is nice to have Wright playing at such a high level AND we have Roschon.
  15. Cleveland just lost their top DT for the season, so who knows how their defense will look like without him. He was the 2nd highest graded defender on PFF.
  16. I thought the same thing. 1 game out of the playoffs and the #5 pick, talk about hedging our bets. The Giants are the next closest at 1 game out and #8.
  17. Love was throwing off his back foot, floating backwards on several clean pockets, almost like he was in practice. Two balls were just lofted up like there were no defenders there. A lot of throws were to wide open receivers or to those that were in place. For most of the game his Y/A was under 5, and if not for some lucky deep balls, he would have one of the lowest Y/A in the league.
  18. I think it is both. We haven't seen the game crushing phantom call go against the Bears lately, and team overall has been improving, and even the playcalling, especially on defense is visible. Numbers are matching the eye test, which makes it feel real.
  19. This week is huge with TB playing GB and MIN playing CIN. If so how TB and CIN can win, and the Bears win, they would be tied with GB at 6-7, and 1 game back with MIN with 3 to play. MINs last 3 games are DET, GB, DET. They would have to win 2 of 3 to make the playoffs. With GB at 6-8, they would have to win out like the Bears and would have CAR, MIN, then CHI left. So their Weeks 17 (MIN) and 18 (CHI) could both be playoff-like games. Win for playoff chance, lose and you are out.
  20. I liked him at Illinois, always thought he was scrappy and would be pretty good if he had real weapons around him.
  21. Some of those Defensive numbers are misleading. Teams are scoring a ton on them the last 3 weeks, 27, 36, and 29 the last 3 weeks. 4 TDs allowed to JAX, 4 TDs allowed to LAR, and 3 TDs allowed to DEN. They had 3 games earlier in the season where they shutout ARZ, and only allowed 3 to TEN and CIN. Those 3 games really make their overall season numbers look good. Those last 2 were September games, which is almost like a season ago at this point. They are still a top 10 defense, but not playing like a top 3 defense like they were earlier in the year.
  22. adam

    Fields-O-Meter

    They don't but they are a piece that is objective. He definitely still has to "just throw the damn ball" sometimes. I honestly think they told him to not throw unless he is absolutely sure it won't be picked, so he is hesitant to pull the trigger. All QBs do it, Fields just does it a lot more. So at this point would you rather have no INTs and a few missed open receivers, or more INTs but a few more completions? Obviously you would prefer both the good, but I just want to see more MoF timing throws because as I said before, if he is able to unlock that area of the field, with his escapability, he would almost be unstoppable. On the broken plays, if you watch the other games, a good amount of Allen's, Mahomes', etc yards are on broken plays. It seems like a lot of chunk plays in the NFL come from those types of plays. Also, I don't know if you watched GBvNYG, but Love either throws to a WIDE open receiver, or just lofts up moon shots that his guys come down with. Those balls are picked off by any competent Safety 90% of the time, but he has avoided the INTs on those, but that luck will run out. He still threw a terrible INT and fumbled which was ultimately the deciding factor in the game.
  23. That NYG win was huge for the Bears (and MIN). Now GB is in the 7th seed as a 6-7 team, tied with 4 other teams, while the Bears are 5-8, one game back. What I have not seen anyone talk about yet is, if the Bears slide into the playoffs as the #7 seed, they would play the NFC South DIV Champ (TB, ATL, or NO). That is a winnable game and would be played in a dome or in TB. So if the Bears do run the table, they actually have a favorable playoff matchup in the WC round. The most hilarious part is whoever gets the #6 Seed would have to play in Dallas, ouch. So the better seed gets totally punished which is kind of funny. I really wonder if teams will consider that come Week 18.
  24. That was awesome, and icing on the cake was a Pack loss which actually helps the Bears for the playoff push if they win out.
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