adam

DJ from NFL.com going Caleb Williams + Jared Verse. What do you think? If the top 3 WRs go before #9, I think the Bears trade down. https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-2024-nfl-mock-draft-1-0

Most are scouting reports and the mock drafts fall out differently than the big boards.

I am thinking Washington is going to do whatever it takes to get Caleb Williams. Besides the #2 pick, they have the Bears 2nd from the Sweat trade (#40) and their own 2nd at #36. They also have 2x 3rd round picks (#67 and #95 SF). This seems like a super safe move to ensure they get MHJ. I also don't think NE is going to be trading up. ARZ doesn't need a QB, so they will nab MHJ if he is on the board when they pick. If they don't care about MHJ, then they can obviously move down further to gain a future 1st rounder again. I could see WAS swapping from #2 to #1, but they would need to give up their own 2nd, their own 3rd, and a future 2nd at a minimum to move up. They may not have to give up a future 1st to get there. I know everyone, including me wants an extra 1st if we are trading down. The Bears moved up 1 spot for Trubisky 3 to 2, and SF got a current 3rd and 4th, and next year's 3rd to go from 2 to 3. Since 2 to 1 is a bigger leap, I could see a current 2nd, current 3rd, and a future 2nd at a minimum. This is me spitballing. That would give the Bears #2, #9, #36, #67, and #75 in the first 3 rounds. That's 5 starters, a WR, Edge, C, G or T, and S or TE. For me, that's the sweet spot. Come out of this draft with 5 picks in the first 3 rounds. Using the Rich Hill model, #1 is worth 1000, #2 is worth 717, #36 is worth 166, #67 is worth 75. That's 958 + 2025 2nd which is normally equal to half of the midround pick, Pick #48 is worth 121, so half is 60.5. 958+60.5=1018.5. That is well within range of realistic. Just say they gave the Bears #40 back instead of #36? Minus 17, now the trade = 1001.5. That is literally spot on. So between my spitball and the Rich Hill model, those are damn close to each other. In 2025, they would then have 3x 2nd round picks. So that would be 4 picks in the first 3 rounds. They could easily trade back on one of those 2nd's to recoup a 3rd rounder to have 5 in the first 3 next season. None of this includes potential 2x 3rd Round comp picks for Cunningham once he is hired away from the team.

Watching some more of Fields' play. Even when he is throwing on time, over the middle, or in his progressions, he still has this hitch. He doesn't hit his back foot and just throw it. He either does a little hop, almost does a subconscious little pump fake, or a double clutch. I am seeing this even on what most would deem the good throws. Not all the throws, but a lot of them. He seems way more comfortable throwing on the move, it is so weird. He also drifts in the pocket, a few times towards an Edge Defender who is going wide. If he stayed center, he could step up, but because he drifted, the Edge is on his back shoulder a step faster than it should be. At the end of the day, he seems like a super athletic dude trying to play QB. He has done it long enough to make some nice plays but it is not natural for him. Watching this again makes me so pissed at Getsy. What the hell are some of these route combinations? They literally draw defenders in. In some cases, it allows them to cover 3 receivers with 2 defenders, terrible play designs. There is also not may receivers open. Even with Moore, he has to make a lot of contested catches, or is hit right away. Here is a good video with a whole bunch of clips put together:

Also, sometimes guys are better in a 2nd gig, and in this case Kliff would not immediately go from Boys2Men as the HC like he did with the Cards. Being an OC when you already have a HC would allow him to solely focus 100% of his attention on the offense.

Everything looks solid outside of the player trades beyond Fields. All the trades incur some dead money. For Whitehair and Jackson, the dead money is the same for a cut or a trade. No one is trading for Whitehair. For Jackson, the trading team would have a $12.5M cap hit. My assumption is Jackson is restructured or cut before free agency. Whitehair is almost a 100% guarantee cut candidate. Mooney is a FA, so he can't be traded.

I know there is a lot of concern about the Bears not having a 2nd round pick, but technically their #9 pick is their 2nd pick, just 23+ picks early (like a free trade up). If they go QB at #1, they have to go WR if Nabers or Odunze are on the board at #9. If not, I think you trade down with that pick. If they keep Fields and trade down from #1, then I would still apply the same theory. Get one WR, then consider trading down from #9 as well. So something like 1 to 3, then select MHJ, gain a 2nd, move from 9 to the teens and gain another 2nd rounder. That would be sweet. 4 picks in the top 60.

Here is the consensus Big Board where they take all the popular big boards and compile them into a consensus list: https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2024/consensus-big-board-2024?pos=ALL Interesting that #1 is Williams and #9 is Odunze. This is not mock draft positions, but BPA rankings.

He flip flops like a salmon running. Kingsbury is not my top pick, but would definitely be higher with his knowledge of Williams' game. It is good to at least see the Bears not being cheap with this hire.

The good thing is this group is light years ahead of the one where they picked Getsy from. They learned their lesson.

Yes, they hit that with Thomas Brown and Marcus Brady.

Getsy wouldn't even be in the top 10 on this list lol.

My updated preference list: 1. Shane Waldron 2. Klint Kubiak — Tier Break — 3. Zac Robinson (McVay experience, former QB) 4. Kliff Kingsbury (move him to top tier if drafting Caleb) 5. Thomas Brown (OC experience, former RB) — Tier Break — 6. Marcus Brady (OC experience, former QB) 7. Liam Coen (former QB) 8. Greg Roman (move him to 2nd tier if keeping Fields) 9. Greg Olson

It could also be to get intel on Caleb. Now they are making teams really hedge their bets as you really don't know which way Poles is going to go.

And Kliff, now things are getting interesting: There would be negative zero chance that they hire him and NOT draft Caleb.

CTE candidate. Dude was a nobody, he had like 1 ok season playing his entire career with Brett Favre. That says a lot.

Also interviewing Zac Robinson, Passing Game Coordinator/QBs Coach for the Rams and Marcus Brady, he is currently on the Eagles staff and was the OC in Indy under Reich, worked with Flus.

Pretty much lol, recency bias at its finest.

It's a business. Very rarely do you have teammates that are together for more than 4-5 years anyway. I would say it is extremely rare to have teammates longer than that unless you join the team relatively at the same time, and both sign long term extensions.

They could be waiting on Kubiak, who has a game on Saturday night. If they beat GB, he is hired. If they lose to GB, the Bears go in a different direction, lol.

So Ryan Leaf reincarnated?

Here is a list of the OC candidates who have had interviews: 1. Shane Waldron - SEA OC (SEA beat DET this season) 2. Klint Kubiak - SF Passing Game Coordinator (SF lost to MIN and plays GB this weekend) 3. Thomas Brown - CAR OC (CAR basically lost to everone) ------------------------------------------------ 4. Liam Coen - Kentucky OC (Kentucky scored a lot of pts against good SEC teams) 5. Greg Roman - Ex-BAL OC (castoff, might be better for a lower position, like Run Game Coordinator) 6. Greg Olson - SEA QB Coach (SEA beat DET this season) I prefer one of the top 3.

Another one: McVay assistant before going to Carolina. Well regarded around the league, made Thielen into a 1K receiver at 33 yrs old, something he hadn't done since 2018.

Is it cockiness, arrogance, or selfishness?

The weirdest thing for me to see is the lack of touch. It seems like all he has is a fastball, which can work 60% of the time, but there are times where there needs to be some air underneath the ball, especially on some screen passes, and I have rarely seen him do that. That also makes for a much more catchable ball. He does have a changeup, but that is when he changes his arm angle, but that is still not really a touch pass.