adam

Those were just examples. The rookie contracts go up less per year than a vet deal as well, so even if a Fields contract may go up a few mil per year, the other deals would offset any increases.

Foreshadowing? Brees was traded and SD drafted Rivers, who then went on to play 16 years with 12 seasons over 4K yards.

Cleveland crapped the bed today against Houston, wow they looked terrible. I cannot believe the Bears lost to this same team. They were not ready to play. Their defense in particular looked gassed and slow. Flacco decided to turn into a pumpkin and throw back to back Pick 6's. Houston ran off 35 straight pts down 14-10. Unbelievable really. The media is going to slurp off Stroud because he is a rookie, but man, he didn't have to do anything that difficult. Davis Mills would've looked like Justin Herbert today against the Browns. Stroud had so many easy passes and dudes were WIDE open. He dumps off a little screen pass, blown coverage, to the house for 76 yards by a slow TE. Then on another blown coverage, Stroud lobs a ball for another long TD to another TE. Zero sacks, I don't even think he was pressured/hurried once. If he was, I missed it.

Cliff Stein is gone:

Ugh Cliff Stein is out:

Yeah, my father-in-law is a Bills fan and I signed up for Peacock so he could see the Bills game a few weeks back. It was blacked out in his area and that was the only way he could see it. Then I had to walk him thru installing the App on an Amazon Fire over the phone (that was fun). But yeah, between needing Amazon Prime, YouTubeTv, and now Peacock is getting out of hand. The playoffs should be available to everyone without needing any special subscriptions.

Waldron and Kubiak are my selections based on what I have read. For Coen, it is tough to eval him, Kentucky was not very good, they don't have good players, and their offense actually scored a decent amount. In ranked games, they scored 35 against Clemson in the Bowl Game, 31 against Louisville, 21 against Alabama, 27 against Tennessee, 13 against Georgia, and 33 against Florida. So 6 games, and only one low scoring output for the offense. That is fairly impressive considering their roster. I would be ok with him if they missed out on Waldron and Kubiak going to other teams. Olson has not been very good everywhere he has been. He has been an OC for 5 different teams over the last 20 years. He can't hold a job down and never lasted more than 3 years in any OC position. The offenses he has ran ranked near the bottom half of the league in most of his seasons. Hard pass for me.

The trade down scenario seems like the best option, even if you consider the cap. With a trade down, using a similar deal as CARs, the Bears will get at least an extra 2nd in 2024 and 1st in 2025 with a contract controlled vet. 2nd Rounder - Rookie Edge ($1.5M) vs Vet Edge ($20M) = $18M in savings 2025 1st - Rookie DT ($4M) vs Vet DT ($20M) = $16M in savings Cost controlled Vet ($20M) vs new Vet FA signing ($24M) = $4M in savings Total savings in trade: $38M Fields 2026 ($50M) vs Rookie QB in 2026 ($12M) = $38M in net loss So a trade down actually is a break even decision compared to drafting a QB at #1. If the Bears select MHJ at #1, that would be the most costly course of action as the Bears would not gain any other draft picks to offset Fields salary. So the only options I see from a roster building perspective is to select a QB at #1 and use the available cap to sign 2 blue chip vets at key positions, while trading Fields to recoup a pick OR keep Fields and trade down enough to get a similar package as the CAR trade.

It is definitely a mix. With every new acquisition, the hope should be that they are an upgrade over the 53-man roster spot that they filling. On offense, it looks like WR1, TE1, LT, LG, RT, and RB are not going to be addressed. They need to upgrade C, WR2, RG, TE2, and WR3. If their is a potential upgrade at QB, you have to consider it as well. Same goes for LT, if the draft or free agency presents you with that opportunity.

2022, same Getsy offense, even in small sample sizes: Fields sack rate: 14.7% Siemian sack rate: 7.1% Peterman sack rate: 3.8% So Fields sack rate is in the 12's from 22-23, all other QBs (6+ games) is around 5.

I think the OC and QB Coach choice will be a small indicator. If they go with someone who specializes or has worked with QBs in a quick passing game/tempo offense, I think they would lean towards drafting a QB better suited for that style. If they bring in a set of coaches that have worked with mobile QBs, RPO Game, etc, then it probably leans back towards Fields returning and stocking up on more draft capital.

What's funny is if the 1st rounder is 35%, and the 2x 2nd rounders are both 20%, the odds of one of the two hitting is 36%. So there is something to that. Also, the percentage goes down by the actual pick, the round is sort of irrelevant, especially once comp picks get added.

Just like Shanahan, Kubiak has had a lot of football in his life. The year he was OC for MIN in 2021, their offense was 13th in DVOA, 12th in EPA/Droback, Cousins had a 103.1 QB Rating (4th), 33 TD (9th), 7 INT (2nd), and 4,221 yards passing (9th). Some may say that is what Cousins always does, but the year prior he threw 13 picks and the year after 14 picks, which are double the INTs from the Kubiak year, which is notable. The QB Rating dropped to 92.5 last year, a 10+ pt drop is also notable. That is an interesting comparison to what Geno did last year with Waldron: 100.9 QB Rating (5th), 30 TD (4th), 11 INT, 4,282 yards passing (8th). If I had to lean one way or the other Waldron would be my pick. Getsy was on Rodgers coattails, Kubiak could've easily been on Cousins. Also note, Kubiak didn't get another OC job in the last two years. The alternative argument is he has gained a year under Shanahan to make his scheme even better.

Welcome to the board! 1. You are correct, Flus still technically doesn't have his guy at QB, just like Poles. They inherited Fields, so that is another factor in this entire situation to consider. 2. If they draft anyone at #1 Williams is definitely one of the QBs they have to consider as long as the "human" stuff checks out. 3. This is a tough one. The Bears do not have a 2024 2nd from the Sweat trade, and 9 to 2 is a pretty huge leap that almost always includes a future 1st. There may be some crazy 3-team trade scenario and trade up to #3 that would work, assuming a QB is taken at #2 and you can get MHJ at #3 (Fields > ATL for #8 + #9 + 2025 2nd > #3). DJ and MHJ would instantly become a top 5 Duo in the NFL. Yeah, it has been a long 3 years, especially last year when the most exciting game was a HOU vs IND game.

2 for 2 so far.

The one thing that has hit me about Williams is, for some reason, he gives me a Claypool vibe. Like once he gets hit in the mouth and teabagged, he is gonna turtle. Daniels is probably the most intriguing and seems to hit all the standard checkboxes you are looking for in a QB. Maye scares me because I see that NC uniform and it gives me nightmares. He actually reminds me of Rivers though, just with normal throwing motion.

Poles has mentioned it as a 3-yr plan. So he sort of backed himself into a corner now. One thing that may be sort of telling is the types of free agents he goes after this offseason and what their contracts look like. There are currently 36 players under contract for 2024 that are part of the 53-man roster. So they need 17 new players this offseason, including extensions. If they plan to run it back with Fields, Poles knows his cap hit will increase in 2026, so he will have to account for that in every contract he offers. On the flip side, if he is planning on drafting a QB, he has some additional wiggle room for the life of any contract he would offer this offseason. Just something to follow.

I try to only follow the beat guys for the Bears on Twitter, but sometimes I will see what other fans or wannabee "bloggers" are saying. Holy crap, I can't unsee some of that. The amount of madness that comes out of people's mouths is insane. Here is one:

I think a lot of that is noise. NE is not gonna be the same with Bill. Jerod Mayo is cool, but he is not Belichick. WAS doesn't even have a HC yet, so that is up in the air. They also traded away their starting Edge rushers. I feel like his height is gonna be the shocker at the Combine. He will come in at 6'0.5" or something like that, under 6'1", and that is going to start a shitstorm. If the Bears pass on him, but get a king's ransom again, this team might be able to play without a QB, just run 10 players out there and they would still win.

First question, do you know what a quick slant is? Second question, would you ever throw the same screen on back to back plays?

I hope that is not the only or primary criteria. I would rather hire the best up and coming guy for the job regardless of demographics.

He clearly said 4 different types. My assumption is Williams, Maye, Daniels, and Penix.

What's interesting to me is, if the Bears trade down, they might even end up with more "resources" in 2024 AND 2025 while the team trading up will lose those. Look at CAR for example. They are actually projected to be worse next year than this year as they won't get a blue chipper 1st round rookie like 20+ other teams. Additionally, their cap space is only slightly above average which will help them improve a little bit, but that won't offset the loss of the #1 overall pick. Now one caveat, even if CAR is the worst team, that doesn't necessarily mean they will finish with the worst record but they should finish bottom 3. Injuries, unexpected performances (Nacua), and strength of schedule all have an impact on the projected outcomes that are not taken into account here.

So I did some additional research on this. Using ELO to measure the current roster, then taking into account the draft capital compared to the average plus the cap space compared to the average. I tried to figure out how much this team can improve based solely on the average outcomes of a draft pick and FA acquisition. This is what I came up with: 1. The Bears are currently 18th in ELO. 2. They have the 3rd most draft capital (though the #1 pick is probably worth more). 3. They have one of the highest effective cap spaces available as of today. 4. Their projected ELO for 2024 should increase by 57 putting them in 11th in the NFL (which would be 10-11 wins). 4a. The margin of error is around +/- 10, so 10th-12th is the projected ranking without any other context. 5. The 5 best teams to consider a trade with for a 2025 1st would be CAR, DEN, NYJ, WAS, and NE as they should finish 2024 in the bottom 5 of the NFL. 5a. What I find interesting is at least 3 of those teams need a QB (DEN, WAS, NE) and obviously WAS and NE are drafting #2 and #3 respectively. REFs: https://www.nfeloapp.com/nfl-power-ratings/ https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-teams-2024-offseason-resources-cap-space-2024-nfl-draft https://www.tankathon.com/nfl/power_rankings