adam

Actually walking thru the teams and their needs, this seems like the most realistic path, leaving the Bears will a few players to choose from at 10: 1. Ward, QB (TEN) - picking a QB 2. Hunter, CB (CLE) - Already have Garrett locked up, can't afford to use on Carter 3. Carter, Edge (NYG) - Carter falls to them 4. Campbell, OL (NE) - Need OL 5. Graham, DL (JAX) - Need DL 6. Jeanty, RB (LVR) - Need RB 7. Sanders, QB (NYJ) - Even with the Fields signing, this would actually make sense for Sanders to sit a year. 8. Walker, Edge (CAR) - Need Edge or TE 9. Johnson, CB (NO) - Need CBs 10. McMillan/Membou/Warren/Stewart? If there is no true elite player left, trading down looks like an option for a team looking for a QB.

Consensus Big Board Top 15 Players (by position) QB - #1 Ward, #4 Sanders Edge - #2 Carter, #12 Walker, #13 Stewart, #15 Williams WR - #8 McMillan CB - #3 Hunter, #10 Johnson OT - #6 Campbell, #9 Membou, #14 Banks DT - #5 Graham RB - #7 Jeanty TE - #11 Warren Consensus Big Board: https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2025/consensus-big-board-2025 If the Bears pick at 10, the most likely pool of players will be: Membou, Johnson, Warren, Walker, Stewart, Banks, and Williams 6 of those 7 should be available at #10. For what it is worth, that site has Shemar Stewart going to the Bears at #10. He is currently ranked 13th. Unless they trade down, there is almost a 100% chance that the Bears pick one of those guys unless someone like Jeanty falls to the Bears at 10. I don't think Graham or Campbell will fall to 10.

One of the ways to look at it is to fill the starter voids before depth concerns. I think you fill those later in the draft and in the late FA period where you don't lose comp picks for signing players. Poles seems to like using that period. I believe the worst 2 positional starters at the moment are Tyler Scott and Tyrique Stevenson (based off 2024). This can always be debated but just a quick glance thru the roster and those are the names I come up with. So WR3 and CB2 have to be on the list. Next, let's generically look at snap counts that need to be replaced by a lost player or based on starter needs from the aforementioned positions of WR and CB. Snap counts that need to be replaced: WR3/4 - 1037 snaps from Allen, Scott, Carter, and Johnson CB2/3 - 1009 snaps from Stevenson + all backup CBs (not Smith) S3 - 785 snaps from Hicks/Owens (here is your depth issue) Edge - 701 snaps from Taylor, Robinson, Martin and Hardy (If Odeyingbo replaced Walker, all these lost snaps are valid) TE2/3 - 469 snaps from Everett and Lewis (some of the worst snaps on offense, I don't think Smythe is the answer here) RB2/3 - 383 snaps from Johnson/Herbert/Homer (assuming you want to push Johnson to RB3) LB3 - 255 snaps from Sanborn, Ogbongbemiga, and Sewell (surprisingly low for LB3) So on snap count alone, you probably need to have WR, CB, S, and Edge targeted. For the other position groups, you have a lot of the snaps covered: DT? - Jarrett replaces snaps from Williams, Cowart, Pickens, and Ford (1007 snaps, Billings~350, Jarrett~650) DT/DE? - Odeyingbo replaces snaps from Walker (738) C - Dalman replaces Shelton (1121) OG - Thuney replaces Jenkins/Curhan (998) OG - Jackson replaces Pryor/Davis (1147) If you consider Brisker coming back would lower the need at Safety, then the top 3 position groups are WR, CB, and Edge, then TE, RB and LB just based on snap counts. I don't think Poles can afford to draft a non-starter in at least his first 3 picks (1st and 2nd rounds). He drafted Amegadjie with his 3rd rounder last year, so I think 3rd and later can go anywhere. If you think about where a top notch rookie could start, WR3 makes a lot of sense since Odunze just did it. CB across from Johnson if you don't trust Stevenson. Rotational Edge will get snaps. With an average of 28 snaps a game, TE2/3 will have a lot of meaningful snaps. RB if you want to go full RBC with Swift. Could they still go OL? Sure, if the best player available is OL and there is no other positional group comparable for that pick, draft them. You can make a case for almost every position group, but if you are just looking at starter quality and snap count, WR and CB make the most sense early, with Edge and TE close behind.

I think Patrick makes a lot of sense and even someone like Lockett if he will comes cheap.

RB2, CB2, and WR3 seems to be the weakest spots.

The worst starter is either WR3 (Scott) or CB2 (Stevenson).

Ok, so Thuney, Jackson, Dalman, Odeyingbo, and now Jarrett.

Dude, this is crazy. Poles will be restructuring Moore, Sweat, and Jaylon to create more space. They are up against the cap now. He can get about $25M out of restructures.

$14.5M per year.

https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1899181141321466016

Depending on how those deals are structured, the Bears have between $12-$14M left in cap. With the draft pool and operating money they might have one or two lower FAs left (under $5M per year).

Williams got the biggest contract total in free agency thus far at $104M total. Crazy money. Hell Dan Moore got $82M from TEN. $16M for Odeyingbo and $14M for Dalman is decent compared to some of these other deals.

Edge. He led the Colts in hurries and QB hits. Sweat just went 4 years for $19.1M per year. This is ultimately a 2-yr deal.

The #Bears are giving edge Dayo Odeyingbo a 3-year deal worth $48M, $16M per year.

Garrett got $40M per year, but somehow that can total $204M over 4 years.

Thuney's cap hit is $16M, Jackson's is $11.8M, assuming Dalman's is $14Mish and Wright is $5.7M with Jones at $3.7M, the total OLine investment is almost $52M. It's about time.

I would not mind if they brought Pryor back as a backup. He was solid too.

Thuney was literally the top OG and Dalman the top OC available via any means. Jackson has huge potential under Johnson. This is the first time since the Olin Kruetz days that the Bears actually have a legit Oline.

The worst player on the line is Jones, who is solid. Still have Bates as a backup.

Oh wow, Im shocked.

This is updating: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/44012706/2025-nfl-free-agency-tracker-live-updates-signings-trades-cuts-contracts

Mack back to LAC:

2 hours until we should start getting alerts from the usual suspects on social media. Last year Swift's deal was announced exactly at 11am. So I assume the Bears first deal will come in that initial madness. With 2x larger deals handed out to Thuney and Jackson already, they may go for a lesser Center upgrade than Dalman. From a money allocation standpoint, I think they may go Edge and DT with the last "bigger" deal. Then address the other positions of need in the 2nd wave.

One concern for Dalman is reps, he missed 8 games last season with an ankle injury. He also has a better Run Block Grade than his Pass Block Grade for what it is worth. Can he anchor against huge DTs at 300 lbs? If they do sign him, I just hope it is not to top money for the position.