adam

$67M in cap space now (3rd most) > $55M effective cap (4th most). Here we go!

He was the last of the 2016 draft class. Jackson is expected to be released, he would be the last of the 2017 draft class. 2018 is already gone (Roquan), and 2019 is gone (Monty). Kmet and Johnson (if signed) would be the 2020 class.

I would say "projected to be better than" as he hasn't taken an NFL snap yet. The projections are very positive and he can still be a bust but odds are he will be at least good to really good. Defenses don't fear the Bears offense. Actually, you can tell the defenses dictate what the offense does when it should be the other way around. Outside of Justin's scrambling ability when they lose contain, Moore was the only threat.

Wow, I knew the officials were bad as we have experienced a ton of missed or phantom calls, but some of those holds were so blatantly obvious AND impacted the play. I always hated the calls away from or behind the play that had no bearing on the outcome of the play, but these are right there. In Week 18, the Packers were holding like crazy, yet never got called for it. So the lesson is keep holding or pay the refs.

Yeah, Shanahan dorked up the OT coin flip. It all comes down to the odds. If you get the ball first, you have a 0% chance to win on your drive. However, if you defer, there is basically a 33% chance the other team will score a TD, 33% chance they kick a FG, and a 33% chance they don't score. So unless they go for 2 and get 8 pts, you technically have a chance to win on your first offensive drive regardless of what the other team did.

Yeah, he is more Russ and Kyler than Mahomes. Some analysts have even said his quick release looks a lot like Rodgers. So he is basically Russell Rodgers or Aaron Murray.

I know there are some additional differences in the different routes they can go, but ultimately for 2025-2026, it seems like it comes down to essentially something like this: Plan A: Williams + $52M for: $24M Edge (FA) + $20M DT (FA) + $8M TE2/WR3 (FA) Plan B: Fields + 2024 1st + 2025 1st + 2026 2nd Both plans roughly have a $62M cap hit with 4 roster spots filled. * Assumption is 1st Round 2024 (#9) used on WR2, 2nd Round 2024 used on Center for both plans (Fields trade or trade down from #1), negating each other. The cost controlled vet like Moore would cancel out with a FA in Plan A as well (cap wise).

Here is the link: https://theathletic.com/5270481/2024/02/13/nfl-draft-2024-prospect-rankings-top-100/ His current top 10: 1. Caleb Williams 2. Marvin Harrison Jr. 3. Malik Nabers 4. Drake Maye 5. Brock Bowers 6. Joe Alt 7. Rome Odunze 8. Jayden Daniels 9. Olu Fashanu 10. Terrion Arnold

I will do some research tonight and break it down by position since 2000 using the top 10 picks (since we have 2).

They were 9-8 this year. I don't know. It is just odd to me that all these highly drafted WRs have achieved relatively nothing compared to other position groups. What I am wondering is if it is a value thing. Meaning, if you take a WR in the top 10, you are bypassing another position group that is more expensive, so you are getting less value out of that position. Basically WRs are overrated and overpaid.

OK, so I saw a graphic about this and had to look into it. Apparently, since 2000, there has only been a single Super Bowl victory that had a top 10 WR on the roster who was drafted by the team he played for in the Super Bowl. That is Mike Evans. There have been 33 picks in the top 10 used for a WR since 2000. It is ugly. Here are those 33 WRs, sorted by # of career receptions: 1 Larry Fitzgerald - Super Bowl loss (Kurt Warner) 2 Andre Johnson 3 Julio Jones - Super Bowl loss (28-3 thanks Shanny) 4 Mike Evans - Super Bowl win (Tom Brady) 5 Calvin Johnson 6 A.J. Green 7 Amari Cooper 8 Michael Crabtree 9 Plaxico Burress - played on winning team for NYG 10 Ted Ginn Jr. - 2x Super Bowl losses (w/ SF and CAR) 11 Roy Williams - Lions LOL! 12 Sammy Watkins - played on winning team for KC 13 Braylon Edwards 14 Travis Taylor 15 Mike Williams 16 Koren Robinson 17 Peter Warrick 18 Corey Davis 19 Ja'Marr Chase - Super Bowl loss 20 Jaylen Waddle 21 Tavon Austin 22 DeVonta Smith - Super Bowl loss 23 Darrius Heyward-Bey 24 Reggie Williams 25 Garrett Wilson 26 Drake London 27 David Terrell - Bear Down! 28 Mike Williams - Lions LOL! 29 Justin Blackmon 30 Troy Williamson 31 John Ross 32 Charles Rogers - Lions LOL! 33 Kevin White - Bear Down! So 5 Super Bowl appearance by 33 players, and a 1-4 record in the Super Bowl in the last quarter century. This does not look good at all. Also, only Jones, Chase, and Smith played in a Super Bowl with a QB drafted by the team. So 3 Super Bowl appearances, zero wins, by 33 players who were drafted in the top 10 who played with a QB drafted by the team. I know it seems convoluted, but if the Bears roll with Fields and draft MHJ or draft Williams and Odunze at 9, the odds of success are extremely low. This is a thing, right? Like that is too one-sided to not be a thing.

Oh I know, I just think it is silly to put a 9-8 team in the top 10 when there were 12 double-digit win teams.

That would be crazy, because Pitts is basically a 1st round pick. So to get Pitts + a 2nd would be insane. I would drive Fields to Atlanta myself.

Less on Purdy, you are correct. However, if you take the ball first in that situation, and you have 4th and 4 from the 9, you have to go for it. Also, once they had 2nd and 4 from the 9, they had 3 downs to get 4 yards and turtled after 2 plays. That 3rd Down pass play call was horrendous. If you go back to their final drive in the 4th. They had 2nd and 5 from the 35 and couldn't get 5 yards in two plays. Like the game is on the line, if they get that first down, they can milk the clock and win it in regulation. Instead they kick a FG and give Mahomes way too much time. I felt like in both instances, they needed to plan for 4 downs of use. Then after you kick a FG the first time, you have to go for it the 2nd time. Two times with 4th and 5 or less and you kick 2x FGs.

and we haven't had anyone do that since Cutler. Mitch rarely did it, every time we were down and we were getting the ball back with 2 minutes left, we almost already knew the outcome. A loss. I had the same feeling with Fields. He was pretty good in the 3rd quarter, but once crunch time came, he fell off the map.

What is wild about this is Purdy had the best 4th Quarter stats: 123.8 QB Rating, 10 TD, 3 INT, 10.3 Y/A in the regular season while Mahomes struggled with a 71.7 QB Rating, 4 TD, 3 INT, 5.4 Y/A. Super wild.

Houston is 5th, Green Bay is 6th. Come on, that is ridiculous.

Looking at some additional stats. There were 40 QBs to have 50+ passing attempts in 4th quarter this season. Here is where Fields ranked amongst those 40: 4th Quarter Splits (QB w/ 50+ attempts, 40 QBs): QB Rating: 39th (53.4) Comp %: 39th (51.1%) Y/A: 31st (6.0) TD%: 29th (3.3%) INT%: 39th (6.5%) Sack%: 32nd (10.9%) Fields was so bad in the 4th quarter that it would've been better to rush on every play than to attempt a single pass. 1 out of every 6 pass plays ended in a sack or INT. 62% of his dropbacks were a negative play. It really is absolutely ugly. This is what it looks like when teams forced him to be a passer. He was in a group of QBs that included Zappe, Siemian, Trubsiky, O'Connell, Wilson, Mullens, and Howell. Would you take any of those QBs over drafting a QB?

That's pretty wild considering they have the #1 and #9 pick. That alone would bump the team up a slot or two. Then consider some teams have to dump a ton of salary, like the Chargers and Saints. Those teams will be dropping. I was thinking 18-20 would be the most appropriate without knowing the QB situation.

Yeah, normally there is a Heisman finalist this year (or winner) that is leaving school the following year. Every finalist this year (Daniels, MHJ, Nix, and Penix) entered the draft this year, so there is no clear cut leader. Some guys may emerge, but those are high risk guys like Zach Wilson. If you had to pick a QB that is in this draft or projected to be in the next one, Williams is the clear leader. It is just going to be what type of QB do you want. Gunslinger - Williams, Prototypical Passer - Maye, Ultra-Mobile QB - Daniels, Winner/Leader - McCarthy, Productive System QB -Nix, Dynamic Thrower/Older/Injuries - Penix. The theory is if Fields is getting traded, it will happen before FA opens. Teams are going to want their QB plan figured out before then, especially because of salary implications. A trade is sometimes complicated compared to just signing a guy. Combine Feb 29th - Mar 3rd Free Agency opens - Mar 11th/Mar 13th.

Also, I was trying to envision what Fields would've done on the last drives. From previous games, it would've been a quick 4 and out, game over; a strip-sack, ballgame, or a bad interception, and the victory formation (for the other team). You can also mix in taking a bad sack in there (while holding the ball too long with receivers open). There is almost zero expectation of him leading a comeback to close out a game, especially if the defense allows a score that loses the lead.

If the Bears extend JJ, that would give them 3-4 blue chippers on defense (depending on how you view Edwards and Edmunds). On offense, at least 2, maybe 3 (Moore, Jenkins, and Wright?). I think guys like Kmet, Brisker, and Gordon are good, but not elite. Stevenson may get there, but not yet, same with Dexter. So 5-7 total. The Bears need at least 3-4 more and the QB needs to be one of them.