adam

Saw a thread on Twitter about EPA, so in looking for one thing, I ran across some interesting plays. These were the most impactful negative plays against Williams so far this season that were not an Interception or fumble lost: Week 8 - BAL - Bears down 30-16 with 33 seconds left. 4th and 1, Incomplete pass to DJ Moore, -3.9 EPA Week 6 - WSH - Bears up 13-7, 2nd Quarter, 4th and 1, Incomplete pass to Odunze, -3.5 EPA Week 4 - LVR - Fumble but recovered, 4th Quarter, 3rd and 5, -2.6 EPA Week 2 - DET - 2nd Quarter, 4th and 1, rush for no gain, -3.5 EPA Week 1 - MIN - 2nd Quarter, 4th and 3, incomplete to Moore, -3.5 EPA (2nd most important play of that game) Week 1 - MIN - 1st Quarter, 3rd and 2, Odunze for -4 yards, -2.3 EPA (9th most important play of that game) These were all top-10 most impactful plays for that week (for either team). A few things stand out, they treat a turnover on downs as bad as an INT, but only on the QB. If a receiver makes a reception but loses yards on the play, that is also on the QB. Garbage time stats still matter, which can pad stats but also hurt. In this case, Caleb lost 3.9 EPA on the last play of the game against BAL down 14 pts. The fumbled snap against LVR which lost 6 yards was -2.6 EPA. These plays are considered so bad that it takes a monster play to offset them or several positive plays.

Week 10 - 1. Maye - XXX Season QBR: 74.2, 2,285 yards, 17-4 TD-INT, 34 Sacks, 2 TD, 1 FL 2. Penix - XXX Season QBR: 57.7, 1649 yards, 8-3 TD-INT, 10 Sacks, 1 TD, 1 FL 3. Williams - XXX Season QBR: 55.4, 1916 yards, 12-4 TD-INT, 14 Sacks, 2 Rush TD, 1 Rec TD. 4. Nix - 53.4 QBR - 150 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 1 sack, -2 Rush Yds. 148 Total Yards. Won Season QBR: 54.9, 2126 yards, 18-8 TD-INT, 10 Sacks, 3 TD 5. Daniels - XXXX Season QBR: 51.1, 875 yards, 7-1 TD-INT, 13 Sacks, 2 FL 6. Rattler - XXX Season QBR: 50.1, 1450 yards, 8-4 TD-INT, 1 FL (benched for rookie) 7. McCarthy - XXX Season QBR: 31.8, 444 yards, 4-4 TD-INT, 14 Sacks, 2 Rush TD

Can you imagine the media firestorm if Williams threw 2 INTs with several other bad throws, only had 150 yards passing with one of them for 43 yds, which means the other 15 were for 107 yards? Instead, Nix wins Player of the Game, lmao! The game-winning FG came after a blocked punt where the offense lost 2 yards. Nix in his last 2 games combined: 34-65, 52.3%, 323 yds, 4.97 Y/A, 3 TD, 3 INT - but both were wins, so he is gritty. In those 2 games, DEN allowed a total of 22 pts and scored 28 lmao.

Yeah, the difference is Payton is better than Nagy. Outside of like 5 quarters of play, Nix has been terrible. In those 5 quarters though, All Pro QB. In the other 35, not an NFL starter. Carroll was a great coach and rah rah guy, but not anymore. He looks lost out there.

3 QB is in the MVP discussion with odds: Josh Allen: +150 (1,833 Pass Yds, 13 TD, 4 INT, 280 Rush Yds, 7 Rush TD) Justin Herbert: +2000 (2,390 Pass Yds, 18 TD, 8 INT, 305 Rush Yds, 1 Rush TD, 9 games) Baker Mayfield: +2000 (1,919 Pass Yds, 13 TD, 2 INT, 158 Rush Yds) ------------------------------------------------------ Caleb Williams: (1,916 Pass Yds, 12 TD, 4 INT, 183 Rush Yds, 2 Rush TD, 1 Rec TD)

I am giving Allen the benefit of the doubt right now as they have been working mainly with their 5th and 6th CB as starters for most of the year. No Jaylon, a lot of no Kyler, some no Tyrique. Lost Zah Frazier and Terrell Smith for the year. Brisker still not looking 100%. I know everyone has injuries but the secondary was supposed to be a strength. The DLine, especially the DTs have been super disappointing. Billings, Dexter, Jarrett all have underperformed, which has seemed to bring down everyone else.

The Pats were up by 10 entering the 4th? His GWD was against BUF. They were tied and he led the last scoring drive. That's why it was not a 4Q Comeback, because they were tied.

GB lost Kraft for the season, he was their leading receiver. So their main threat is Jacobs who averages 3.8 yards per carry. That makes both of those games a little easier on the defense. SF's defense is nowhere near they have been in the past. Warner is lost for the year I believe, and he may be a bigger loss than Jaylon on the Bears.

All last year, and even into this year, all we heard about is Caleb Williams taking too many sacks. So how is this possible: Williams sack rate last year was 10.79% and his career sack rate is now down to 9.10% Drake Maye has been sacked 34 times this year, which matches the same number he had last year. His sack rate this season is 11.76% which is 1% higher than Williams' last year, but no one is talking about that. Additionally, Maye's career sack rate is 10.29%, which is over 1% higher than Caleb's and only 0.5% less than Caleb's "terrible" sack rate from last year.

If the Bears get both Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon back for the final month (5 games), would that change your outlook on any of these games? It should make all of them more competitive. 14 - DEC 7th @ Green Bay Packers - coming off FRI game while GB is coming off THU game. Both teams with at least 2 extra days rest, but in GB. Will be tough. 15 - DEC 14th vs Cleveland Browns - WIN (Only scoring 16.1 ppg) - Final 4 games, CLE will be in Aruba planning mode by then. The Bears have to win this one. 16 - DEC 20th vs Green Bay Packers - short week, Saturday game, while GB comes from DEN - This feels like a win. 17 - DEC 28th @ San Francisco 49ers - This one seems like it will decide the playoff hopes due to the Wild Card. 18 - JAN 4th vs Detroit Lions - This game becomes massive if somehow the Bears are in the division title hunt heading into this game, but they would have to had beat MIN and GB twice to even have a shot at it before this game.

It's about a 40 slot drop from the Bears projected 6th to the Eagles projected 7th. That equates to an early 7th round pick. Now I know Monangai worked out, but the odds that a 6th or 7th rounder even make the 53-man are low. Kyle Monangai, Luke Newman, Travis Bell, Kendall Williamson, Zachary Thomas, Trestan Ebner, Doug Kramer, Ja'Tyre Carter, Elijah Hicks, Trenton Gill. Of the 8 6th and 7th rounders Poles has selected before this season, Hicks is the only one on the 53-man roster. That is a 12.5% hit rate. So using a 7th rounder value on a former 1st rounder is not that bad.

Caleb now has 5 4QC in 25 starts. So 20% of his starts have included a 4th Quarter Comeback. He has also led 4 Game-Winning Drives in 10 of the wins. Probably would have a couple more of each if not for being Flus'd. Maye has never led a 4th Quarter Comeback and has one Game Winning Drive. Nix has had 7 of each, which is kinda crazy. If he only played in the 2nd and 4th quarters, he would be the greatest QB of all-time. 32 TD - 9 INT in the 2nd and 4th quarters, 14 TD - 9 INT in the 1st and 3rd quarters. Daniels had 4 of each last year, 0 this year. Penix has never led a 4th Q comeback or had a Game-Winning Drive. McCarthy has one of each, both against the Bears in Week 1.

Brown had a little Forte in him, a little bit of a taller back with long strides. Swift and Johnson both being limited are upgrades from last week. Monangai is probably in a little bit of a rest protocol after taking so many reps in game. Hopefully they will all be full by Friday.

Technically, halftime of this Sunday's game will be the exact halfway point of the season, but with the bye already past, we are sort of at that point now in terms of calendar days. At 5-3, what are some of your bests and worsts for this team so far? For me, the best "best" is Ben Johnson. He is really exceeding expectations in almost every possible way. He is a maniac. He is the anti-Flus and something this team has lacked since Lovie or even Ditka. On offense, I really like the balance of the offense (run vs pass, with no one player being targeted too much). 3 players have 30+ receptions, 6 with 20+ targets, which includes 4x 100-yd receiving games from Odunze, Burden, and Loveland. 8 different players have a receiving TD (including Williams). The O-Line, especially Wright, who is playing at an All-Pro level, have been playing at a high level. Thuney, Dalman, and even Jackson are really coming around. They have facilitated 3x 100-yd Rushing games from Swift and Monangai. Of late, I have also been impressed with Monangai and Loveland. Hopefully they can keep up the production. The worst on offense is probably the LT position and Cole Kmet's production. Kmet is 7th on the team in receptions, only 1 more than Monangai. Oz is probably 3rd for me as I was expecting more out of him with how he looked in the offseason and the number of targets he has received so far (2nd most on the team). On defense, Byard and Edmunds have been the best players on a unit that is struggling. Byard is playing at an All-Pro level. The worst have been McCloud, Brisker, and Billings. I expected more out of Brisker and Billings (they were supposedly the missing pieces last year), and I didn't expect McCloud to be the worst cover CB in the NFL when targeted. They really miss Jaylon, and Stevenson did not seem like the same player prior to missing the BAL game. Special Teams as a whole though, is probably my worst "worst". Holy crap they are bad. They are terrible in kick coverage, blocking for FGs, kicking FGs, and outside of 2-3 punts all year, Taylor has again shown he was a waste of a 4th round pick. The league average per punt is 47.9, Taylor is at 48.5. The ironic thing for him is he is the same exact punter from last year in terms of distance. The league average last year was 47.6, he was at 47.7. Santos has missed 3 kicks with a long of 52. That is embarrassing. Moody was cut for missing 2 kicks in a game SF won lol, then he makes 8 of 9 for the Bears. I would rather have Moody than Santos the rest of the way. Honorable mention for worst is Richard Hightower. I still do not understand how this guy is employed. He is a big reason why the ST unit is so bad. Hopefully they can improve to just be average the rest of the way. Just don't lose games for the team.

Brisker won't be back. He is nowhere near as strong in the box as he was before the concussion (which makes sense), but he seems even worse in coverage this year. In his final year of his rookie deal, I think they let him walk.

How good is the Bears running game? Swift, Monangai, Johnson, and Brown are all in the top 30 for Success Rate, and all but Roschon are in the top 30 in Explosive Play%.

No team has a more productive formation in the NFL than the Bears 2x2. They have produced 49.01 EPA from that formation. In comparison, the Giants best is 1x3 with a total EPA of 24.59. A lot of cool data here: https://sumersports.com/teams/offensive/

On Offense, EPA/Play in the RZ, the Bears are 21st, while the Giants are 32nd by a country mile. On Defense, the Bears are 17th in the RZ for EPA/P, while the Giants are 28th. Out of 11-personnel, the Bears are +0.16 EPA/P Passing and -0.09 Rushing. Out of 12-personnel, the Bears are -0.25 EPA/P Passing (which is shocking) and +0.05 Rushing. The Giants interestingly enough are almost he opposite, they have more success passing out of 12-personnel, and more rushing success out of 11-personnel. They were having a lot of success with 21-personnel before Skattebo got hurt. That formation seems to be significantly reduced now.

The more I look at the upcoming games, the more I think the Steelers and 49ers games are winnable. Both of those defenses allow over 5.5 yards per play. On offense, the Steelers have 620 Completed Air Yards on the season (dead last), which equates to 3.7 yards per completion and they are 19th in Rushing Yards Per Carry. SF is basically completely dependent on McCaffrey in both the run and pass game.

He joins Williams and Blackwell with weekly honors.

Pretty cool honors for the rook. Could've also went to Monangai or even Williams. If Loveland keeps up a solid pace, he could at least make the Warren v Loveland debate a little more even. He now has the PotW Honors, a 100-Yd game, and a 2-TD game to his credit. Warren has yet to break 80 yards receiving, which I was somewhat shocked about. It seemed like he was getting a lot of attention from the media, just to compare to Loveland, which I did as well.

For Bears vs Giants. Just based off EPA/Play, the average number of plays for both teams, and their previous scoring (both OFF and DEF), the most likely outcome is 31-23 Bears. Bears OFF +0.04 vs Giants DEF +0.07 / +0.055 x 64.5 plays= (+3.55 DIFF) 26.88 Bears O vs 27.67 Giants D = 30.8 (31 pts) Giants OFF -0.06 vs Bears DEF -0.02 / -0.04 x 60.5 plays= (-2.42 DIFF) 21.89 Giants O vs 28.38 Bears D = 22.7 (23 pts) The Giants Offense was heavily dependent on Skattebo who accounted for over 500 yards in just over 7 games played. The Giants 2 wins came when they ran the ball over 150 yards.

At his current pace, Williams would have 34 fewer total yards than Goff had in his first year with Johnson as his OC, but that is because I did not include any projected receiving stats. If Williams catches 2-3 more for the entire year, he would be really close to matching Goff's yardage. For TDs, he is already projected to exceed it with fewer turnovers: Goff 2022 - 4516 Total Yards, 29 TD, 12 TO (Made Pro Bowl) Williams 2025P - 4482 Total Yards, 32 TD, 11 TO (Does not include projected Receiving Stats)

COVID Year I believe, and it was just Joe Tryon back then to TB.

That is fair, but that is why you wait until the sample size is large enough to be useful. In this case, we are basically through half of the season with a top 5 offense. Even with a tougher schedule, that will drop some, but I doubt they fall out of the top 10.